Linear and non-linear (non-)forecastability of high-frequency exchange rates

This paper forecasts Daily Sterling exchange rate returns using various naive, linear and non-linear univariate time-series models. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using mean squared error and sign prediction criteria. These show only a very modest improvement over forecasts generated by a random walk model. The Pesaran–Timmerman test and a comparison with forecasts generated artificially shows that even the best models have no evidence of market timing ability.

Rapid assessment of historic, current and future habitat quality for biodiversity around UK Natura 2000 sites

Changes in landscape composition and structure may impact the conservation and management of protected areas. Species that depend on specific habitats are at risk of extinction when these habitats are degraded or lost. Designing robust methods to evaluate landscape composition will assist decision- and policy-making in emerging landscapes. This paper describes a rapid assessment methodology aimed at evaluating landcover quality for birds, plants, butterflies and bees around seven UK Natura 2000 sites. An expert panel assigned quality values to standard Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) landcover classes for each taxonomic group. Quality was assessed based on historical (1950, 1990), current (2000) and future (2030) land-cover data, the last projected using three alternative scenarios: a growth applied strategy (GRAS), a business-as-might-beusual (BAMBU) scenario, and sustainable European development goal (SEDG) scenario. A quantitative quality index weighted the area of each land-cover parcel with a taxa-specific quality measure. Land parcels with high quality for all taxonomic groups were evaluated for temporal changes in area, size and adjacency. For all sites and taxonomic groups, the rate of deterioration of land-cover quality was greater between 1950 and 1990 than current rates or as modelled using the alternative future scenarios (2000– 2030). Model predictions indicated land-cover quality stabilized over time under the GRAS scenario, and was close to stable for the BAMBU scenario. The SEDG scenario suggested an ongoing loss of quality, though this was lower than the historical rate of c. 1% loss per decade. None of the future scenarios showed accelerated fragmentation, but rather increases in the area, adjacency and diversity of high quality land parcels in the landscape.

Non-replication of the association between 5HTTLPR and response to psychological therapy for child anxiety disorders

Background We previously reported an association between 5HTTLPR genotype and outcome following cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) in child anxiety (Cohort 1). Children homozygous for the low-expression short-allele showed more positive outcomes. Other similar studies have produced mixed results, with most reporting no association between genotype and CBT outcome. Aims To replicate the association between 5HTTLPR and CBT outcome in child anxiety from the Genes for Treatment study (GxT Cohort 2, n = 829). Method Logistic and linear mixed effects models were used to examine the relationship between 5HTTLPR and CBT outcomes. Mega-analyses using both cohorts were performed. Results There was no significant effect of 5HTTLPR on CBT outcomes in Cohort 2. Mega-analyses identified a significant association between 5HTTLPR and remission from all anxiety disorders at follow-up (odds ratio 0.45, P = 0.014), but not primary anxiety disorder outcomes. Conclusions The association between 5HTTLPR genotype and CBT outcome did not replicate. Short-allele homozygotes showed more positive treatment outcomes, but with small, non-significant effects. Future studies would benefit from utilising whole genome approaches and large, homogenous samples.

Observational and energetics constraints on the non-conservation of potential/Conservative Temperature and implications for ocean modelling

This paper seeks to elucidate the fundamental differences between the nonconservation of potential temperature and that of Conservative Temperature, in order to better understand the relative merits of each quantity for use as the heat variable in numerical ocean models. The main result is that potential temperature is found to behave similarly to entropy, in the sense that its nonconservation primarily reflects production/destruction by surface heat and freshwater fluxes; in contrast, the nonconservation of Conservative Temperature is found to reflect primarily the overall compressible work of expansion/contraction. This paper then shows how this can be exploited to constrain the nonconservation of potential temperature and entropy from observed surface heat fluxes, and the nonconservation of Conservative Temperature from published estimates of the mechanical energy budgets of ocean numerical models. Finally, the paper shows how to modify the evolution equation for potential temperature so that it is exactly equivalent to using an exactly conservative evolution equation for Conservative Temperature, as was recently recommended by IOC et al. (2010). This result should in principle allow ocean modellers to test the equivalence between the two formulations, and to indirectly investigate to what extent the budget of derived nonconservative quantities such as buoyancy and entropy can be expected to be accurately represented in ocean models.

The non-conservation of potential vorticity by a dynamical core compared with the effects of parametrized physical processes

Numerical models of the atmosphere combine a dynamical core, which approximates solutions to the adiabatic, frictionless governing equations for fluid dynamics, with tendencies arising from the parametrization of other physical processes. Since potential vorticity (PV) is conserved following fluid flow in adiabatic, frictionless circumstances, it is possible to isolate the effects of non-conservative processes by accumulating PV changes in an air-mass relative framework. This “PV tracer technique” is used to accumulate separately the effects on PV of each of the different non-conservative processes represented in a numerical model of the atmosphere. Dynamical cores are not exactly conservative because they introduce, explicitly or implicitly, some level of dissipation and adjustment of prognostic model variables which acts to modify PV. Here, the PV tracers technique is extended to diagnose the cumulative effect of the non-conservation of PV by a dynamical core and its characteristics relative to the PV modification by parametrized physical processes. Quantification using the Met Office Unified Model reveals that the magnitude of the non-conservation of PV by the dynamical core is comparable to those from physical processes. Moreover, the residual of the PV budget, when tracing the effects of the dynamical core and physical processes, is at least an order of magnitude smaller than the PV tracers associated with the most active physical processes. The implication of this work is that the non-conservation of PV by a dynamical core can be assessed in case studies with a full suite of physics parametrizations and directly compared with the PV modification by parametrized physical processes. The nonconservation of PV by the dynamical core is shown to move the position of the extratropical tropopause while the parametrized physical processes have a lesser effect at the tropopause level.

The ex-Ante non-optimality of the Dempster-Schafer updating rule for ambiguous beliefs

The most widely used updating rule for non-additive probalities is the Dempster-Schafer rule. Schmeidles and Gilboa have developed a model of decision making under uncertainty based on non-additive probabilities, and in their paper “Updating Ambiguos Beliefs” they justify the Dempster-Schafer rule based on a maximum likelihood procedure. This note shows in the context of Schmeidler-Gilboa preferences under uncertainty, that the Dempster-Schafer rule is in general not ex-ante optimal. This contrasts with Brown’s result that Bayes’ rule is ex-ante optimal for standard Savage preferences with additive probabilities.

Non-emptiness of the alpha-core

We prove non-emptiness of the alpha-core for balanced games with non-ordered preferences, extending and generalizing in several aspects the results of Scarf (1971), Border (1984), Florenzano (1989), Yannelis (1991) and Kajii (1992). In particular we answer an open question in Kajii (1992) regarding the applicability of the non-emptiness results to models with infinite dimensional strategy spaces. We provide two models with Knightian and voting preferences for which the results of Scarf (1971) and Kajii (1992) cannot be applied while our non-emptiness result applies.

The BoP approach and its links to main related research fields: sense-making of the current discussion

A Base-da-Pirâmide (Base ofthePyramid- BoP) é referida na literatura como sendo o segmento sócio-econômico mais baixo em termos de paridade do poder de compra. Esse segmento encontrase geralmente excluído do sistema capitalista global. Esta tese analisa o tema BoP e discute dentro de um contexto sócio-econômico, como essa abordagem se relaciona com outras áreas de pesquisa, assim como a teoria do desenvolvimento internacional e a teoria de negócios internacionais. Estas duas teorias são identificadas como tendo uma relação mais forte com BoP. No que se segue, a abordagem BoP é incorporada nessas duas teorias com o objetivo de tornar este conceito mais claro e abrangente. Seguindo este raciocínio a abordagem BoP vem identificar contribuições no tocante a cada uma dessas abordagens teóricas. O argumento principal da tese é que a abordagem BoP é capaz de ligar essas duas teorias (teoria do desenvolvimento internacional e a teoria de negócios internacionais) em um só modelo teórico, mostrando assim que essas duas abordagens teóricas distintas podem na realidade serem complementares.

In vivo evaluation of the biocompatibility of three current bonding agents

The aim of this in vivo study was to evaluate the biocompatibility of three current bonding agents and calcium hydroxide cement. Sixty polyethylene tubes filled with the following materials: Group 1: Prime & Bond NT (PB - Dentsply, US; Group 2: Bond 1 (BO - Jeneric/Pentron, US); Group 3: Optibond Solo (OP - Kerr, US); and Group 4 (control): calcium hydroxide cement - Dycal (CH - Dentsply, US) were implanted into the connective tissue of 30 rats. After 15, 30 and 60 days, the implants were excised and the animals sacrificed. The biopsies were immersed in Karnovsky (pH, 7.2) fixative solution for 48 hours, and processed using routine histological technique. Six-micron-thick sections were cut and stained with hematoxilin and eosin and Masson's trichome technique. Microscopic evaluation was used to compare the connective tissue reactions caused by the experimental and control materials adjacent to the tube opening. At 15 days, the experimental and control materials triggered a moderate to intense inflammatory response which gave rise to a thick capsule adjacent to the tube opening. With time, the inflammatory reaction decreased. At 60 days, the connective tissue adjacent to the bonding agents exhibited a persistent inflammatory response mediated by macrophages and giant cells which were engulfing displaced resin components. on the other hand, for the control group (calcium hydroxide) no inflammatory response associated with a thin capsule adjacent to the material was observed even at the 30-day period. The hard-setting calcium hydroxide cement allowed complete healing and was considered more biocompatible than the bonding agents.

Thickness dependence of leakage current in BaBi2Ta2O9 thin films

BaBi2Ta2O9 thin films having a layered structure were fabricated by metalorganic solution deposition technique. The films exhibited good structural, dielectric, and insulating properties. The room temperature resistivity was found to be in the range of 10(12)-10(14) Omega cm up to 4 V corresponding to a field of 200 kV/cm across the capacitor for films annealed in the temperature range of 500-700 degrees C. The current-voltage (I-V) characteristics as a function of thickness for films annealed at 700 degrees C for 1 h, indicated bulk limited conduction and the log(I) vs V-1/2 characteristics suggested a space-charge-limited conduction mechanism. The capacitance-voltage measurements on films in a metal-insulator-semiconductor configuration indicated good Si/BaBi2Ta2O9 interface characteristics and a SiO2 thickness of similar to 5 nm was measured and calculated. (C) 1999 American Institute of Physics. [S0003-6951(99)00830-X].

A new class of neurotoxin from wasp venom slows inactivation of sodium current

The effects of alpha-pompilidotoxin (alpha-PMTX), a new neurotoxin isolated from the venom of a solitary wasp, were studied on the neuromuscular synapses in lobster walking leg and the rat trigeminal ganglion (TG) neurons. Paired intracellular recordings from the presynaptic axon terminals and the innervating lobster leg muscles revealed that alpha-PMTX induced long bursts of action potentials in the presynaptic axon, which resulted in facilitated excitatory and inhibitory synaptic transmission. The action or alpha-PMTX was distinct from that of other known facilitatory presynaptic toxins, including sea anemone toxins and alpha-scorpion toxins, which modify the fast inactivation of Na+ current. We further characterized the action of alpha-PMTX on Na+ channels by whole-cell recordings from rat trigeminal neurons. We found that alpha-PMTX stowed the Na+ channels inactivation process without changing the peak current-voltage relationship or the activation time course of tetrodotoxin (TTX)-sensitive Na+ currents, and that alpha-PMTX had voltage-dependent effects on the rate of recovery from Na+ current inactivation and deactivating tail currents. The results suggest that alpha-PMTX slows or blocks conformational changes required for fast inactivation of the Na+ channels on the extracellular surface. The simple structure of alpha-PMTX, consisting of 13 amino acids, would be advantageous for understanding the functional architecture of Na+ channel protein.

Morphological caste differences and non-sterility of workers in Brachygastra augusti (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Epiponini), a neotropical swarm-founding wasp

Morphological caste differences and ovary conditions were analyzed in four colonies of Brachygastra augusti collected in different stages of the colony cycle. Differences between castes are distinct suggesting pre-imaginal determination. Many intermediates (non-inseminated ovary-developed females) were found. Because these intermediate females were morphologically similar to workers, it is suggested that they are young ovary-developed workers. Because there is a more evident overlap between queens and workers in the colony in pre-emergence of workers stage, and in three colonies in latter stages, especially in worker-production colonies, it is suggested that smaller queens are probably less viable than larger queens as observed in previously studied epiponines.