Models of Mortality - Analysing the Residuals

The area of mortality modelling has received significant attention over the last 20 years owing to the need to quantify and forecast improving mortality rates. This need is driven primarily by the concern of governments, professionals, insurance and actuarial professionals and individuals to be able to fund their old age. In particular, to quantify the costs of increasing longevity we need suitable model of mortality rates that capture the dynamics of the data and forecast them with sufficient accuracy to make them useful. In this paper we test several of those models by considering the fitting quality and in particular, testing the residuals of those models for normality properties. In a wide ranging study considering 30 countries we find that almost exclusively the residuals do not demonstrate normality. Further, in Hurst tests of the residuals we find evidence that structure remains that is not captured by the models.

Will your article be found? Authors choose a confusing variety of words to describe dental survival analyses

OBJECTIVES: Identify the words and phrases that authors used to describe time-to-event outcomes of dental treatments in patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic handsearch of 50 dental journals with the highest Citation Index for 2008 identified articles reporting dental treatment with time-to-event statistics (included "case" articles, n = 95), without time-to-event statistics (active "control" articles, n = 91), and all other articles (passive "control" articles n = 6796). The included and active controls were read, identifying 43 English words across the title, aim and abstract, indicating that outcomes were studied over time. Once identified, these words were sought within the 6796 passive controls. Words were divided into six groups. Differences in use of words were analyzed with Pearson's chi-square across these six groups, and the three locations (title, aim, and abstract).

RESULTS: In the abstracts, included articles used group 1 (statistical technique) and group 2 (statistical terms) more frequently than the active and passive controls (group 1: 35%, 2%, 0.37%, P < 0.001 and group 2: 31%, 1%, 0.06%, P < 0.001). The included and active controls used group 3 (quasi-statistical) equally, but significantly more often than the passive controls (82%, 78%, 3.21%, P < 0.001). In the aims, use of target words was similar for included and active controls, but less frequent for groups 1-4 in the passive controls (P < 0.001). In the title, group 2 (statistical techniques) and groups 3-5 (outcomes) were similar for included and active controls, but groups 2 and 3 were less frequent in the passive controls (P < 0.001). Significantly more included articles used group 6 words (stating the study duration) (54%, 30%, P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION: All included articles used time-to-event analyses, but two-thirds did not include words to highlight this in the abstract. There is great variation in the words authors used to describe dental time-to-event outcomes. Electronic identification of such articles would be inconsistent, with low sensitivity and specificity. Authors should improve the reporting quality. Journals should allow sufficient space in abstracts to summarize research, and not impose unrealistic word limits. Readers should be mindful of these problems when searching for relevant articles. Additional research is required in this field.

The Monetary Value Of Meat Authenticity And Food Safety In Ready To Heat Lasagne: Implications Of The ‘Horse Meat Scandal’ Across Europe

The recent ‘horse meat scandal’ in Europe has sparked huge concerns among consumers, as horse meat was found in beef lasagne ready to be consumed. Within STARTEC, a European funded project, this study investigates consumers’ preferences, attitudes and willingness to pay (WTP) towards characteristics of ready to heat (RTH) fresh lasagne, including origin of the meat, tested for meat authenticity, safety of the lasagne, and nutritional value, using Discrete Choice Experiments in six countries - Republic of Ireland, France, Italy, Spain, Germany and Norway. Our representative sample of 4,598 European consumers makes this the largest cross country study of this kind. The questionnaire was administered online in January 2014. Results from models in WTP-space show that, on average, consumers are willing to pay considerable amount (about €4-9) for food authenticity; on this Irish and Italian are the least concerned while Spanish are the most concerned. As expected from discussing with stakeholders, food safety claims and nutritional value of the RTH lasagne are relatively less important. Consumers also value knowing the origin of ingredients preferring locally sourced meat. Primarily, the results of this study present strong evidence that consumers in Europe are highly concerned about authenticity of the meat in ready meals and strongly prefer to know that the meat is national. This evidence suggests that there is great value in providing information on these attributes, both from a consumer perspective and where this leads to an increased consumer confidence has benefits for the food industry.

Future of the transdermal drug delivery market – have we barely touched the surface?

Introduction: Transdermal drug delivery is themovement of drugs across the skin for absorption into the systemic circulation. Transfer of the drug can occur via passive or active means; passive trans- dermal products donot disrupt the stratumcorneumto facilitate deliverywhereas active technologies do. Due to the very specific physicochemical properties necessary for successful passive transdermal drug delivery, this sector of the pharmaceutical industry is relatively small. There are many well-documented benefits of this delivery route however, and as a result there is great interest in increasing the number of therapeutic substances that can be delivered transdermally. Areas Covered: This review discusses the various transdermal products that are currently/have been marketed, and the paths that led to their success, or lack of. Both passive and active transdermal technologies are considered with the advantages and limitations of each high- lighted. In addition to marketed products, technologies that are in the investigative stages by various pharmaceutical companies are reviewed. Expert Opinion: Passive transdermal drug delivery has made limited progress in recent years, however with the ongoing intense research into active technologies, there is great potential for growth within the transdermal delivery market. A number of active technologies have already been translated into marketed products, with other platforms including microneedles, rapidly progressing towards commercialisation.

Dynamic cost indexing

This paper describes the development of a generic tool for dynamic cost indexing (DCI), which encompasses the ability to manage flight delay costs on a dynamic basis, trading accelerated fuel burn against ‘cost of time’. Many airlines have significant barriers to identifying which costs should be included in ‘cost of time’ calculations and how to quantify them. The need is highlighted to integrate historical passenger delay and policy data with real-time passenger connections data. The absence of industry standards for defining and interfacing necessary tools is recognised. Delay recovery decision windows and ATC cooperation are key constraints. DCI tools could also be used in the pre-departure phase, and may offer environmental decision support functionality: which could be used as a differentiating technology required for access to designated, future ‘green’ airspace. Short-term opportunities for saving fuel and/or reducing emissions are also identified.

Evaluation and Evaluating the Community Initiative "URBAN"

The relevance of the relationship between evaluation and learning is widely acknowledged; as well as the importance of this learning process to support policy decision making and to judge the value of “what was done”, “how” and “with what results”. Although the activity of evaluation is not something new, but a field of knowledge with its own theories and practices, it is important to notice that there is great variability in the tradition and cultures of evaluation between countries. This paper presents and compares different conceptual and methodological frameworks created for the assessment of the European initiative Urban II, including the one that was used by the author in the context of an academic evaluation in the city of Porto. The comparative analysis of the results leads us to the recommendation for more democratic processes of evaluation and intervention, in order to improve their quality and accountability and promote the important goal of learning with this type of experimental initiatives.

Práticas curriculares em jardim de infância com crianças com perturbações do espetro do autismo

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Educação - Especialização em Educação Especial

A transição de aluno a professor: dificuldades e desafios

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Ciências da Educação - especialidade Supervisão em Educação

A expressão dramática no desenvolvimento da formação pessoal e social da criança em idade pré-escolar

Relatório da Prática Profissional Supervisionada Mestrado em Educação Pré-Escolar

Projecto de parceria entre a ONGD Estímulo e a Rede de Farmácias Portuguesas: a união de esforços entre sectores para a resolução de problemas contemporâneos

Trabalho de projeto apresentado à Escola Superior de Comunicação Social como parte dos requisitos para obtenção de grau de mestre em Gestão Estratégica das Relações Públicas.

Join The Moment Transitários, S.A: relatório de estágio no departamento de operações

Apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Empreendedorismo e Internacionalização, sob orientação da Doutora Maria Clara Pinto Ribeiro

A technology market transfer for the Zonadvanced video technology

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Men's grooming in Germany: A consumer research and discussion of current consumer attitudes

The objective of this dissertation was to explore the German men’s grooming market and to discuss the usage and purchase behavior of young male adults. After a brief market analysis, this dissertation evaluates the results of qualitative and quantitative research. The conducted research explored the consumer’s reasoning for and attitude towards personal grooming, and their attitude towards product attributes and the aging process. The dissertation concludes that men attach high value to personal grooming but only to the extent that their personal need is satisfied. As the male involvement in MG is highly dependent on each consumer’s individual needs, the market requires a careful segmentation.

Exploring the relationship between ethnicity and hypertension in Canada

Background: Previous work examining differences in hypertension across ethnic groups employ race as the principal variable. While differences in hypertension have been identified across racial groups, there is great variation between ethnic groups amongst racial groupings that could mask differences in hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. In light of Canada's ethnic diversity, research aimed at identifying specific groups that are at a health disadvantage is essential for understanding the health of the overall population. In addition, this research would be beneficial for creating programs and policies aimed at reducing or eliminating these disparities. Since CVD is the leading cause of mortality in Canada and hypertension is one of the most significant and modifiable risk factors for CVD, it is important to move past crude classifications based on race and examine ethnic group differences. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between ethnicity and hypertension in Canada, while employing more narrow classifications for ethnicity than previous studies. In addition, because ethnicity has been shown to be representative of an individual's social experience, this study also aims to investigate whether this relationship can be explained by one or all of the following variable: socioeconomic status, physical activity, body mass index, smoking status, daily alcohol consumption or acculturation. Methods. This study used the 2004 Canadian Community Health Survey, cycle 2.1 to compare 29 different ethnic groups in Canada on whether they had high blood pressure that had been diagnosed by a health professional. Associations were examined using logistic regression. Subsequent logistic regression analyses included socioeconomic status, physical activity, body mass index, smoking status, daily alcohol consumption and acculturation to test for the effect of each of these variables on the relationship between ethnicity and hypertension. Results. Ukrainians, Chinese, Portuguese, South Asians, Aboriginals, Blacks, Filipinos and South East Asians were found to have significantly higher odds of having high blood pressure than Canadians (OR's = 1.50, 1.56, 2.72, 1.38, 1.36, 1.66, 2.21 & 2.24 respectively, p<.001). In addition, the only significant mediating effects were between SES and Aboriginals as well as obesity and Aboriginals. None of the other independent variables accounted for >10% of the risk experienced by the ethnic groups that were significantly associated with hypertension. Interpretation: The odds of having high blood pressure in Canada varies considerably across ethnic groups within racial groups indicating previous research is not specific enough to inform policy and program development. Because this study was not able to explain this relationship using the sociodemographic and lifestyle factors mentioned above, future research should be done to determine what places certain ethnic groups at a greater risk in order to tailor interventions aimed at reducing high blood pressure that are suited to the specific needs of each cultural group.

The physical environment and organizational behavior

Research into organizational behaviour has indicated that there is an inevitable conflict between the needs of the individual and organizational demands. Psychologists have given insights into basic individual needs and contend that satisfaction of these needs constitutes a motivating force which enhances desired behavioural patterns. Behaviouralists have suggested that a basic and pervasive individual need is the culturally determined need for privacy. Anthropologists and environmental psychologists have shown that man's spatial behaviour is observable and predictable and that changes in the physical environment or the way it is perceived are accompanied by concommitant changes in behaviour. Research findings from each of the disciplines have been reviewed in an attempt to show that the physical environment is a significant factor in satisfying the needs of the individual organizational member, hence, a significant influence on organizational behaviour. A model has been generated to show the relationship between the physical setting and behaviour and to underscore the importance of making provisions within the physical setting for the attainment of a culturally determined optimal level of privacy. The physical setting, by providing for this need, becomes a significant factor in reducing the conflict between the individual and the organization and makes for acceptable role behaviour and the fulfilment of organizational goals.