An analysis of NSW rural property market : 1990-2010

Rural property in Australia has seen significant market resurgence over the past 3 years, with improved seasonal conditions in a number of states, improved commodity prices and a greater interest and purchase of rural land by major international corporations and investment institutions. Much of this change in perspective in relation to rural property as an asset class can be linked to the food shortage of 2007 and the subsequent interest by many countries in respect to food security. This paper will address the total and capital return performance of a major agricultural area and compare these returns on the basis of both location of land and land use. The comparison will be used to determine if location or actual land use has a greater influence on rural property capital and income returns. This performance analysis is based on over 40,000 rural sales transactions. These transactions cover all market based rural property transactions in New South Wales, Australia for the period January 1990 to December 2010. Correlation analysis and investment performance analysis has also been carried out to determine the possible relationships between location and land use and subsequent changes in rural land capital values.

Smarten up! applying market design theory to greyfields housing supply : a background paper

This paper examines whether recent innovation in market design can address persistent problems of housing choice and affordability in the inner and middle suburbs of Australian cities. Australia's ageing middle suburbs are the result of a low density and highly car-dependent garden city greenfield approach to planning that failed to consider possible future resource or environmental constraints on urban development (Newton et al., 2011). Described as 'greyfield' sites in contrast to greenfield (signalling the change from rural to urban land use) and 'brownfield' (being the transformation of former industrial use to mixed use, including housing), intensification of development in such areas is expected to deliver positive social, economic and environmental outcomes (Trubka et al., 2008; Gurran et al., 2006; Newton et al., 2011; Goodman et al., 2010). Yet despite broad policy consensus progress remains elusive (Major Cities Unit, 2010). In this paper we argue that the application of market design theory, specifically through the internet-based coordination of market information, offers a new policy approach and practical measures to address these problems.

Applying market design theory to 'greyfields' housing supply

This paper examines whether innovation in market design can address persistent problems of housing choice and affordability in the ageing inner and middle suburbs of Australian cities. Despite policy consensus that urban intensification of these low density, ‘greyfield’ areas should be able to deliver positive social, economic and environmental outcomes, existing models of development have not increased housing stock or delivered adequate gains in sustainability, affordability or diversity of dwellings in greyfield localities. We argue that application of smart market and matching market principles to the supply of multi-unit housing can unlock land, reduce development costs and improve design.

Assessing the suitability of market approach valuation methods for mine and quarry valuations

An area of property valuation that has attracted less attention than other property markets over the past 20 years has been the mining and extractive industries. These operations can range from small operators on leased or private land to multinational companies. Although there are a number of national mining standards that indicate the type of valuation methods that can be adopted for this asset class, these standards do not specify how or when these methods are best suited to particular mine operations. The RICS guidance notes and the draft IVSC guidance notes also advise the various valuations methods that can be used to value mining properties; but, again they do not specify what methods should be applied where and when. One of the methods supported by these standards and guidelines is the market approach. This paper will carry out an analysis of all mine, extractive industry and waste disposal sites sale transactions in Queensland Australia, a major world mining centre, to determine if a market valuation approach such as direct comparison is actually suitable for the valuation of a mine or extractive industry. The analysis will cover the period 1984 to 2011 and covers sale transactions for minerals, petroleum and gas, waste disposal sites, clay, sand and stone. Based on this analysis, the suitability of direct comparison for valuation purposes in this property sector will be tested.

Environmental information provision, market valuation, and firm incentives: An empirical study of the Japanese PRTR system

The environmental performance of a listed firm could affect its level of investment in pollution prevention and its access to financial markets. Previous studies using Tobin's q that explore market response to environmental performance do not distinguish between the impact of performance on investment and market response, which may mislead conclusions. To overcome this problem, we simultaneously estimate the functions of the intangible asset, the replacement cost, and the toxic chemical risk. We find that the Japanese financial market does not value risk associated with toxic chemical releases. Nevertheless, even without market valuation, firms increase investment to reduce pollution. © 2010 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System.

The land hoarding and land inspector dilemma in China : an evolutionary game theoretic perspective

China has experienced considerable economic growth since 1978, which was accompanied by unprecedented growth in urbanization and, more recently, by associated rising urban housing and land banking issues. One such issue is that of land hoarding - where real estate developers purchase land to hold unused in the rising market for a future lucrative sale, often several years later. This practice is outlawed in China, where land use is controlled by increasingly strengthened Government policies and inspectors. Despite this, land hoarding continues apace, with the main culprits being the developers and inspectors working subversively. This resembles a game between two players - the inspector and the developer - which provides the setting for this paper in developing an evolutionary game theory model to provide insights into dealing with the dilemmas faced by the players. The logic and dilemma of land banking strategy and illegal land banking issues are analysed, along with the land inspector’s role from a game theory perspective by determining the replication dynamic mechanism and evolutionary stable strategies under the various conditions that the players face. The major factors influencing the actions of land inspectors, on the other hand, are the costs of inspection, no matter if it is strict or indolent, conflict costs, and income and penalties from corruption. From this, it is shown that, when the net loss for corruption (income from corruption minus the penalties for corruption and cost of strict inspections) is less than the cost of strict inspections, the final evolutionary stable strategy of the inspectors is to carry out indolent inspections. Then, whether penalising developers for hoarding is severe or not, the evolutionary strategy for the developer is to hoard. The implications for land use control mechanisms and associated developer-inspector actions and counteractions are then examined in the light of the model's properties.

Livelihood, land use and environment interactions in the highlands of East Africa

This study aims at improving understanding of the interactions of livelihoods and the environment focusing on both socio-economic and biodiversity implications of land use change in the context of population pressure, global and local markets, climate change, cultural and regional historical factors in the highlands of East Africa. The study is based on three components (1) two extensive livelihood surveys, one on Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and the other in the Taita Hills of Kenya, (2) a land use change study of the southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro focusing on land use trends between 1960s and 1980s and 1980s and 2000 and (3) a bird diversity study focusing on the potential impacts of the future land use change on birds in the main land use types on the slopes and the adjacent plains of Mt. Kilimanjaro. In addition, information on the highlands in Embu and the adjacent lowlands in Mbeere of Kenya are added to the discussion. Some general patterns of livelihood, land use and environment interactions can be found in the three sites. However, the linkages are very complex. Various external factors at different times in history have influenced most of the major turning points. Farmers continually make small adaptations to their farming practices, but the locally conceived alternatives are too few. Farmers lack specific information and knowledge on the most suitable crops, market opportunities and the quality requirements for growing the crops for markets. Population growth emerges as the most forceful driver of land use and environmental change. The higher altitudes have become extremely crowded with population densities in some areas higher than typical urban population densities. Natural vegetation has almost totally been replaced by farmland. Decreasing farm size due to population pressure is currently threatening the viability of whole farming systems. In addition, capital-poor intensification has lead to soil fertility depletion. Agricultural expansion to the agriculturally marginal lowlands has created a new and distinct group of farmers struggling constantly with climate variability causing frequent crop failures. Extensification to the fragile drylands is the major cause of fragmentation and loss of wildlife habitat. The linkages between livelihoods, land use and the environment generally point to degradation of the environment leading to reduced environmental services and ecosystem functions. There is no indication that the system is self-regulating in this respect. Positive interventions will be needed to maintain ecosystem integrity.

Residential Differentiation, Housing Policy and Urban Planning in the Transformation from State Socialism to a Market Economy: The Case of Tallinn

The thesis examines urban issues arising from the transformation from state socialism to a market economy. The main topics are residential differentiation, i.e., uneven spatial distribution of social groups across urban residential areas, and the effects of housing policy and town planning on urban development. The case study is development in Tallinn, the capital city of Estonia, in the context of development of Central and Eastern European cities under and after socialism. The main body of the thesis consists of four separately published refereed articles. The research question that brings the articles together is how the residential (socio-spatial) pattern of cities developed during the state socialist period and how and why that pattern has changed since the transformation to a market economy began. The first article reviews the literature on residential differentiation in Budapest, Prague, Tallinn and Warsaw under state socialism from the viewpoint of the role of housing policy in the processes of residential differentiation at various stages of the socialist era. The paper shows how the socialist housing provision system produced socio-occupational residential differentiation directly and indirectly and it describes how the residential patterns of these cities developed. The second article is critical of oversimplified accounts of rapid reorganisation of the overall socio-spatial pattern of post-socialist cities and of claims that residential mobility has had a straightforward role in it. The Tallinn case study, consisting of an analysis of the distribution of socio-economic groups across eight city districts and over four housing types in 1999 as well as examining the role of residential mobility in differentiation during the 1990s, provides contrasting evidence. The third article analyses the role and effects of housing policies in Tallinn s residential differentiation. The focus is on contemporary post-privatisation housing-policy measures and their effects. The article shows that the Estonian housing policies do not even aim to reduce, prevent or slow down the harmful effects of the considerable income disparities that are manifest in housing inequality and residential differentiation. The fourth article examines the development of Tallinn s urban planning system 1991-2004 from the viewpoint of what means it has provided the city with to intervene in urban development and how the city has used these tools. The paper finds that despite some recent progress in planning, its role in guiding where and how the city actually developed has so far been limited. Tallinn s urban development is rather initiated and driven by private agents seeking profit from their investment in land. The thesis includes original empirical research in the three articles that analyse development since socialism. The second article employs quantitative data and methods, primarily index calculation, whereas the third and the fourth ones draw from a survey of policy documents combined with interviews with key informants. Keywords: residential differentiation, housing policy, urban planning, post-socialist transformation, Estonia, Tallinn

Impact of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries : a comparative study of Kenya and Zambia

This research investigates the impacts of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries and it evaluates the supply perspective of food security. This research theme is applied on the agricultural sector in Kenya and in Zambia by studying the role policies played in the maize sub-sector. An evaluation of selected policies introduced at the beginning of the 1980s is made, as well as an assessment of whether those policies influenced maize output. A theoretical model of agricultural production is then formulated to reflect cereal production in a developing country setting. This study begins with a review of the general framework and the aims of the structural adjustment programs and proceeds to their application in the maize sector in Kenya and Zambia. A literature review of the supply and demand synthesis of food security is presented with examples from various developing countries. Contrary to previous studies on food security, this study assesses two countries with divergent economic orientations. Agricultural sector response to economic and institutional policies in different settings is also evaluated. Finally, a dynamic time series econometric model is applied to assess the effects of policy on maize output. The empirical findings suggest a weak policy influence on maize output, but the precipitation and acreage variables stand out as core determinants of maize output. The policy dimension of acreage and how markets influence it is not discussed at length in this study. Due to weak land rights and tenure structures in these countries, the direct impact of policy change on land markets cannot be precisely measured. Recurring government intervention during the structural policy implementation period impeded efficient functioning of input and output markets, particularly in Zambia. Input and output prices of maize and fertilizer responded more strongly in Kenya than in Zambia, where the state often ceded to public pressure by revoking pertinent policy measures. These policy interpretations are based on the response of policy variables which are more responsive in Kenya than in Zambia. According the obtained regression results, agricultural markets in general, and the maize sub-sector in particular, responded more positively to implemented policies in Kenya, than in Zambia, which supported a more socialist economic system. It is observed in these results that in order for policies to be effective, sector and regional dimensions need to be considered. The regional and sector dimensions were not taken into account in the formulation and implementation of structural adjustment policies in the 1980s. It can be noted that countries with vibrant economic structures and institutions fared better than those which had a firm, socially founded system.

Policy Coordination in an Oligopolistic Housing Market

This paper analyzes the consequences of the interaction between two different levels of government (regulators) in the development of housing policy when their decisions determine the level of competition in the housing market. The analysis discusses the implications derived from a lack of coordination between a local regulator who controls the supply of land for housing development and a central regulator who decides on housing subsidies. The results suggest that lack of coordination has significant effects on prices and supply of houses, housing developers’ profits, and buyers’ surplus.

Analysis of spatio-temporal dynamic pattern and driving forces of urban land in China in 1990s using TM images and GIS

China has witnessed fast urban growth in the recent decade. This study analyzes spatio-temporal characteristics of urban expansion in China using satellite images and regionalization methods. Landsat TM images at three time periods, 1990/1991, 1995/1996, and 1999/2000, are interpreted to get 1:100000 vector land use datasets. The study calculates the urban land percentage and urban land expansion index of every 1 km(2) cell throughout China. The study divides China into 27 urban regions to conceive dynamic patterns of urban land changes. Urban development was achieving momentum in the western region, expanding more noticeably than in the previous five years, and seeing an increased growth percentage. Land use dynamic changes reflect the strong impacts of economic growth environments and macro-urban development policies. The paper helps to distinguish the influences of newly market-oriented forces from traditional administrative controls on China's urban expansion. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

STUDY ON THE SPATIAL PATTERNS OF LAND-USE CHANGE AND ANALYSES OF DRIVING FORCES IN NORTHEASTERN CHINA DURING 1990-2000

Land-use change is an important aspect of global environment change. It is, in a sense, the direct result of human activities influencing our physical environment. Supported by the dynamic serving system of national resources, including both the environment database and GIS technology, this paper analyzed the land-use change in northeastern China in the past ten years (1990 - 2000). It divides northeastern China into five land-use zones based on the dynamic degree (DD) of land-use: woodland/grassland - arable land conversion zone, dry land - paddy field conversion zone, urban expansion zone, interlocked zone of farming and pasturing, and reclamation and abandoned zone. In the past ten years, land-use change of northeastern China can be generalized as follows: increase of cropland area was obvious, paddy field and dry land increased by 74. 9 and 276. 0 thousand ha respectively; urban area expanded rapidly, area of town and rural residence increased by 76. 8 thousand ha; area of forest and grassland decreased sharply with the amount of 1399. 0 and 1521. 3 thousand ha respectively; area of water body and unused land increased by 148. 4 and 513. 9 thousand ha respectively. Besides a comprehensive analysis of the spatial patterns of land use, this paper also discusses the driving forces in each land-use dynamic zones. The study shows that some key biophysical factors affect conspicuously the conversion of different land- use types. In this paper, the relationships between land- use conversion and DEM, accnmlated temperature(>= 10 degrees C) and precipitation were analysed and represented. We conclude that the land- use changes in northeast China resulted from the change of macro social and economic factors and local physical elements. Rapid population growth and management changes, in some sense, can explain the shaping of woodland/grassland - cropland conversion zone. The conversion from dry land to paddy field in the dry land - paddy field conversion zone, apart from the physical elements change promoting the expansion of paddy field, results from two reasons: one is that the implementation of market-economy in China has given farmers the right to decide what they plant and how they plant their crops, the other factor is originated partially from the change of dietary habit with the social and economic development. The conversion from paddy field to dry land is caused primarily by the shortfall of irrigation water, which in turn is caused by poor water allocation managed by local governments. The shaping of the reclamation and abandoned zone is partially due to the lack of environment protection consciousness among pioneer settlers. The reason for the conversion from grassland to cropland is the relatively higher profits of fanning than that of pasturing in the interlocked zone of farming and pasturing. In northeastern China, the rapid expansion of built-up areas results from two factors: the first is its small number of towns; the second comes from the huge potential for expansion of existing towns and cities. It is noticeable that urban expansion in the northeastern China is characterized by gentle topographic relief and low population density. Physiognomy, transportation and economy exert great influences on the urban expansion.

Inclusive development? State-led land development model in New Town, Kolkata

Urban land development in India is changing under the auspices of economic liberalisation. Kolkata has been in the forefront of this transformation through development of new townships in the urban peripheries based on a distinctive state-led land development model. Within this context New Town, Kolkata (also known as Rajarhat) provides a highly illuminative case to articulate the ways in which the state is implementing its neoliberal agenda in land development. It rides on political and ideological high ground by seeking to create a ‘model development’ of state–market partnership for dual goals of fostering capitalist interest while fulfilling welfarist principles. Interesting insights have emerged that point to a policy paradox. On one hand, the process follows market principles of efficacy and efficiency; on the other hand, state’s keenness to extend control persists, thereby creating a highly uneven terrain for state–market interaction. New Town reflects a typical quasi-market condition shaped by the monopolistic state, the poorly structured role of the private sector, an absence of civic bodies, and minimal land and housing provision for the poor. In India, as internationally, the economic liberalisation market ideology is increasingly construed as good governance. In this context New Town is a step in the right direction, but the progress is patchy, uneven, and still evolving.

Contracts for the Sale of Land: Understanding the Impecuniosity Defence

Where either the seller or buyer of landed property fails to complete a contract to sell land the non-breaching party has a right to seek specific performance of the contract. This remedy would compel the party in default to perform the contract on pain of being held in contempt of court if the court's order is not obeyed. The defaulting party would not be able to satisfy its obligations under the law by paying a sum of money as damages for breach of contract. This paper considers the impecuniosity defence to specific performance as recognised by courts in Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, Australia and New Zealand. Where the buyer demonstrates that he or she simply cannot raise the funds to buy the property specific performance will not be decreed and the court will make an award of damages for breach of contract measured by the difference between the contract price and the market price of the property at the time of default. The paper considers the nature and parameters of this defence and how it differs (if at all) from the alternative defence of extreme hardship. The paper addresses the question of whether it might be better to move to a position where sellers of land in all cases no longer enjoy a presumption of specific performance but have to demonstrate that the alternative remedy of damages is clearly inadequate. If this should be so the paper goes on to consider whether abolition of the presumption in favour of specific performance for sellers should lead to abolition of the presumption of specific performance for buyers, as is the position in Canada following the Supreme Court's decision in Semelhago v Paramadevan [1996] 2 SCR 415.