Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling:the UncertWeb framework

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within the UncertWeb project which are designed to provide uncertainty support in the context of the proposed ‘Model Web’. We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling. We describe the scope and architecture required to support uncertainty management as developed in UncertWeb. This includes tools which support elicitation, aggregation/disaggregation, visualisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models.

Applications of data envelopment analysis in education

Non-parametric methods for efficiency evaluation were designed to analyse industries comprising multi-input multi-output producers and lacking data on market prices. Education is a typical example. In this chapter, we review applications of DEA in secondary and tertiary education, focusing on the opportunities that this offers for benchmarking at institutional level. At secondary level, we investigate also the disaggregation of efficiency measures into pupil-level and school-level effects. For higher education, while many analyses concern overall institutional efficiency, we examine also studies that take a more disaggregated approach, centred either around the performance of specific functional areas or that of individual employees.

(Appendix A) Pigment content, microbial biomass and activity, and grain size characteristics in caged and control sites of the Arctic long-term observatory HAUSGARTEN

Present theories of deep-sea community organization recognize the importance of small-scale biological disturbances, originated partly from the activities of epibenthic megafaunal organisms, in maintaining high benthic biodiversity in the deep sea. However, due to technical difficulties, in situ experimental studies to test hypotheses in the deep sea are lacking. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the potential of cages as tools for studying the importance of epibenthic megafauna for deep-sea benthic communities. Using the deep-diving Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) "VICTOR 6000", six experimental cages were deployed at the sea floor at 2500 m water depth and sampled after 2 years (2y) and 4 years (4y) for a variety of sediment parameters in order to test for caging artefacts. Photo and video footage from both experiments showed that the cages were efficient at excluding the targeted fauna. The cage also proved to be appropriate to deep-sea studies considering the fact that there was no fouling on the cages and no evidence of any organism establishing residence on or adjacent to it. Environmental changes inside the cages were dependent on the experimental period analysed. In the 4y experiment, chlorophyll a concentrations were higher in the uppermost centimeter of sediment inside cages whereas in the 2y experiment, it did not differ between inside and outside. Although the cages caused some changes to the sedimentary regime, they are relatively minor compared to similar studies in shallow water. The only parameter that was significantly higher under cages at both experiments was the concentration of phaeopigments. Since the epibenthic megafauna at our study site can potentially affect phytodetritus distribution and availability at the seafloor (e.g. via consumption, disaggregation and burial), we suggest that their exclusion was, at least in part, responsible for the increases in pigment concentrations. Cages might be suitable tools to study the long-term effects of disturbances caused by megafaunal organisms on the diversity and community structure of smaller-sized organisms in the deep sea, although further work employing partial cage controls, greater replication, and evaluating faunal components will be essential to unequivocally establish their utility.

Using food intake records to estimate compliance with the Eatwell plate dietary guidelines

Funded by Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services (RESAS) Division Food Standards Agency, UK Biscuit, Cake, Chocolate and Confectionery Association, London, UK

Using food intake records to estimate compliance with the Eatwell plate dietary guidelines

Funded by Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services (RESAS) Division Food Standards Agency, UK Biscuit, Cake, Chocolate and Confectionery Association, London, UK

An empirical study of the variability in the composition of British freight trains

As part of the broader sustainability and economic efficiency agenda, European transport policy places considerable emphasis on improving rail’s competitiveness to increase its share of the freight market. Much attention is devoted to infrastructure characteristics which determine the number of freight trains which can operate and influence the operating characteristics of these trains. However, little attention has been devoted to the composition of the freight trains themselves, with scant published data relating to the practicalities of this important component of system utilisation and its impacts on rail freight viability and sustainability. This paper develops a better understanding of the extent to which freight train composition varies, through a large-scale empirical study of the composition of British freight trains. The investigation is based on a survey of almost 3,000 individual freight trains, with analysis at four levels of disaggregation, from the commodity groupings used in official statistics down to individual services. This provides considerable insight into rail freight operations with particular relevance to the efficiency of utilisation of trains using the available network paths. The results demonstrate the limitations of generalising about freight train formations since, within certain commodity groupings, considerable variability was identified even at fairly high levels of disaggregation.

A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy

We estimate the monthly volatility of the US economy from 1968 to 2006 by extending the coincidentindex model of Stock and Watson (1991). Our volatility index, which we call VOLINX, hasfour applications. First, it sheds light on the Great Moderation. VOLINX captures the decrease in thevolatility in the mid-80s as well as the different episodes of stress over the sample period. In the 70sand early 80s the stagflation and the two oil crises marked the pace of the volatility whereas 09/11 is themost relevant shock after the moderation. Second, it helps to understand the economic indicators thatcause volatility. While the main determinant of the coincident index is industrial production, VOLINXis mainly affected by employment and income. Third, it adapts the confidence bands of the forecasts.In and out-of-sample evaluations show that the confidence bands may differ up to 50% with respect to amodel with constant variance. Last, the methodology we use permits us to estimate monthly GDP, whichhas conditional volatility that is partly explained by VOLINX. These applications can be used by policymakers for monitoring and surveillance of the stress of the economy.

A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

Whose health, whose care, whose say? Some comments on public involvement in new NHS commissioning arrangements

Recent health policy in England has demanded greater involvement of patients and the public in the commissioning of health and social care services. Public involvement is seen as a means of driving up service quality, reducing health inequalities and achieving value in commissioning decisions. This paper presents a summary and analysis of the forms that public involvement in commissioning are to take, along with empirical analysis from a qualitative study of service-user involvement. It is argued that the diversity of constituencies covered by the notion of ‘public involvement’, and the breadth of aims that public involvement is expected to achieve, require careful disaggregation. Public involvement in commissioning may encompass a variety of interest groups, whose inputs may include population needs assessment, evaluation of service quality, advocacy of the interests of a particular patient group or service, or a combination of all of these. Each of these roles may be legitimate, but there are significant tensions between them. The extent to which the structures for public involvement proposed recognize these possible tensions is arguably limited. Notably, new Local Involvement Networks (LINks), which will feed into commissioning decisions, are set as the arbiters of these different interests, a demanding role which will require considerable skill, tenacity and robustness if it is to be fulfilled effectively.

O espaço público como elemento agregador de uma augi

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Arquitectura, apresentada na Universidade de Lisboa - Faculdade de Arquitectura.