Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling:the UncertWeb framework


Autoria(s): Bastin, Lucy; Cornford, Dan; Jones, Richard; Heuvelink, Gerard B.M.; Pebesma, Edzer; Stasch, Christoph; Nativi, Stefano; Mazzetti, Paolo; Williams, Matthew
Data(s)

01/01/2013

Resumo

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within the UncertWeb project which are designed to provide uncertainty support in the context of the proposed ‘Model Web’. We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling. We describe the scope and architecture required to support uncertainty management as developed in UncertWeb. This includes tools which support elicitation, aggregation/disaggregation, visualisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models.

Formato

application/pdf

Identificador

http://eprints.aston.ac.uk/17703/1/EMS_Special_Issue_Integrated_Modelling_accepted_draft.pdf

Bastin, Lucy; Cornford, Dan; Jones, Richard; Heuvelink, Gerard B.M.; Pebesma, Edzer; Stasch, Christoph; Nativi, Stefano; Mazzetti, Paolo and Williams, Matthew (2013). Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling:the UncertWeb framework. Environmental Modelling and Software, 39 (January 2013), pp. 116-134.

Relação

http://eprints.aston.ac.uk/17703/

Tipo

Article

PeerReviewed