¿Cómo convivir con la escasez de agua? El caso de las Islas Canarias

Escasez de agua no necesariamente significa pobreza, como se dedcice de un análisis de áreas geográficas. Hay países relativamente ricos con escasos recursos hidricos y paises pobres con abundancia de agua dulce. La sociedad humana desarrollada dispone de recursos científicos, tecnicos, económicos, institucionales \; politicos para aáecuar la disponibilidad de agua a la demanda y viceversa, de un modo tendente a la sustentabilidad, siempre y cuando las actividades econornicas se modifiquen convenientemente y esa sustentabilidad sea un objetivo social deseado y participadc. El Archioiélago de Canarias esta en la región érida sahariana, aunque con ireas de pluviosidad relativamente elevada en sus vecientes septentrionales afectadas por la circulación de los vientos alisios y masas atlánticas de aire húmedo. La escasez de agua es algo bien asumido e internalizado en muchas de las áreas insulares canarias, en especial :ras la explosión demográfica del siglo XX. No por ello deja de ser una región europea ae economía aceptable y notablemente rica relativa al entorno geográfico próximo. La consecución de agua dulce es el resultado acumulado de un gran esfuerzo económico e imaginativo secular, con matices diferentes en cada isla y en cada parte de una misma isla. Sin embargo subsisten o han aparecido graves disfunciones a causa de la rapida evolución, arraigo de actividades agricolas no sustentables, debilidad insritucional y escasa participación ciudadana en la ~oliticad el agua a largo plazo, en un ambiente científico y técnico aiin por consolidar. No obstante. los logros en captaciór, de aguas subterraneas sor. espectaculares y el avance en desalinización y reutilización son m ~nyoto rios. ABSTRACT: relatively rich with scarce water resources and poor countries that have plenty of freshwater. A developed human society has scientific, technical, economic, institutional and policy resources to adapt water availability to demand, and vice versa, in a way that tends to sustainabílity. This needs modifying conveniently economic activities and making sustainability a wanted and participated social goal. The Archipelago of the Canaries is placed in the Sanaran dry belt, although there are some areas of relatively high rainfall in the north-facing slopes of the isiands, which intersect the circulation of trade winds and atlantic humid air masses. Water scarciTy is something well assumed and internalised in many of the areas of the Canaries, especially afier the demographic explosion of the XX century. But this does not imply poverty; actually it is an Eu8-opeanr egion wlth acceptable economic leve1 and notably rich respect the nearby geographical area. Freshwater wining is tne accumulated result of secular economic and imaginative efforts, which present differences from island to island and even incide the same island. Nowever some serious malfuncrions remain oí have appeared o'ue 10 the fast evolution, persistence of unsustainable agricultura1 activities 2nd still scarce public participation ir) long-term water policies. This happens in a scientific and iechnical environment which is stil! to be consolidated. However there are spectacular achievements in groundw~ter wining, and there are notorious progress in desalination and water reuse.

Ideas preconcebidas sobre el ciclo del agua y las aguas subterráneas en la educación secundaria de Canarias

[ES]El ciclo del agua es uno de los procesos más estudiados y menos comprendidos en profundidad por los estudiantes de primaria y secundaria, que no son capaces de aplicar lo estudiado a la vida cotidiana. Esta realidad se traslada también a la sociedad, como se refleja en los medios de comunicación, en un área (Islas Canarias) donde la escasez hídrica está a la orden del día. Los contenidos referentes a estos temas se reparten entre varias asignaturas de ESO y Bachillerato. El análisis del conocimiento de los alumnos sobre el ciclo del agua a partir de una encuesta a alumnos de 3º de la ESO de un centro ha permitido identificar las carencias que tienen en estos aspectos.

¿Donde reutilizar y qué regar?: uso de un sig para el diseño de una red de reutilización en una isla volcánica

[ES] El conocimiento de criterios que ayuden a priorizar el uso del agua es fundamental para garantizar su uso sostenible. En las zonas semiáridas, el abandono de la actividad agrícola puede estar motivado por la escasez de agua y por problemas de mercado de las especies tradicionalmente cultivadas. Por otro lado, la actividad ganadera, suele estar limitada por la escasez de forrajes. La disponibilidad de agua regenerada a un precio razonable podría evitar su vertido y contrarrestar la degradación de suelos abandonados, potenciando la producción de especies forrajeras rentables, contribuyendo así a la ganadería sostenible. Para ello se requiere optimizar la distribución del agua considerando varios criterios simultáneamente

Mainstreaming a Decade's Experiences in Watershed Management to Meet the Challenges of Environmental Change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas

Like other mountain areas in the world, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Ongoing climate change processes are projected to have a high impact on the HKH region, and accelerated warming has been reported in the Himalayas. These climate change impacts will be superimposed on a variety of other environmental and social stresses, adding to the complexity of the issues. The sustainable use of natural resources is crucial to the long-term stability of the fragile mountain ecosystems in the HKH and to sustain the socio-ecological resilience that forms the basis of sustainable livelihoods in the region. In order to be prepared for these challenges, it is important to take stock of previous research. The ‘People and Resource Dynamics Project’ (PARDYP), implemented by International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), provides a variety of participatory options for sustainable land management in the HKH region. The PARDYD project was a research for development project that operated in five middle mountain watersheds across the HKH – two in Nepal and one each in China, India, and Pakistan. The project ran from 1996 to 2006 and focused on addressing the marginalisation of mountain farmers, the use and availability of water, issues relating to land and forest degradation and declining soil fertility, the speed of regeneration of degraded land, and the ability of the natural environment to support the growing needs of the region’s increasing population. A key learning from the project was that the opinion of land users is crucial to the acceptance (and, therefore, successful application) of new technologies and approaches. A major challenge at the end of every project is to promote knowledge sharing and encourage the cross-fertilization of ideas (e.g., in the case of PARDYP, with other middle mountain inhabitants and practitioners in the region) and to share lessons learned with a wider audience. This paper will highlight how the PARDYP findings, including ways of addressing soil fertility and water scarcity, have been mainstreamed in the HKH region through capacity building (international, regional, and national training courses), networking, and the provision of backstopping services. In addition, in view of the challenges in watershed management in the HKH connected to environmental change, the lessons learned from the PARDYP are now being used by ICMOD to define and package climate change proof technology options to address climate change adaptation.

Sustainable Land Management (SLM) Practices in Drylands: How Do They Address Desertification Threats?

Managing land sustainably is a huge challenge, especially under harsh climatic conditions such as those found in drylands. The socio-economic situation can also pose challenges, as dryland regions are often characterized by remoteness, marginality, low-productive farming, weak institutions, and even conflict. With threats from climate change, disputes over water, competing claims on land, and migration increasing worldwide, the demands for sustainable land management (SLM) measures will only increase in the future. Within the EU-funded DESIRE project, researchers and stakeholders jointly identified existing SLM technologies and approaches in 17 dryland study sites located in the Mediterranean and around the world. In order to evaluate and share this valuable SLM experience, local researchers documented the SLM technologies and approaches in collaboration with land users, utilizing the internationally recognized WOCAT questionnaires. This article provides an analysis of 30 technologies and 8 approaches, enabling an initial evaluation of how SLM addresses prevalent dryland threats, such as water scarcity, soil degradation, vegetation degradation and low production, climate change, resource use conflicts, and migration. Among the impacts attributed to the documented technologies, those mentioned most were diversified and enhanced production and better management of water and soil degradation, whether through water harvesting, improving soil moisture, or reducing runoff. Favorable local-scale cost–benefit relationships were mainly found when considered over the long term. Nevertheless, SLM was found to improve people’s livelihoods and prevent further outmigration. More field research is needed to reinforce expert assessments of SLM impacts and provide the necessary evidence-based rationale for investing in SLM.

Plant-plant interactions, environmental gradients and plant diversity: A global synthesis of community-level studies

Previous syntheses on the effects of environmental conditions on the outcome of plant-plant interactions summarize results from pairwise studies. However, the upscaling to the community-level of such studies is problematic because of the existence of multiple species assemblages and species-specific responses to both the environmental conditions and the presence of neighbors. We conducted the first global synthesis of community-level studies from harsh environments, which included data from 71 alpine and 137 dryland communities to: (i) test how important are facilitative interactions as a driver of community structure, (ii) evaluate whether we can predict the frequency of positive plant-plant interactions across differing environmental conditions and habitats, and (iii) assess whether thresholds in the response of plant-plant interactions to environmental gradients exists between ``moderate'' and ``extreme'' environments. We also used those community-level studies performed across gradients of at least three points to evaluate how the average environmental conditions, the length of the gradient studied, and the number of points sampled across such gradient affect the form and strength of the facilitation-environmental conditions relationship. Over 25% of the species present were more spatially associated to nurse plants than expected by chance in both alpine and chyland areas, illustrating the high importance of positive plant-plant interactions for the maintenance of plant diversity in these environments. Facilitative interactions were more frequent, and more related to environmental conditions, in alpine than in dryland areas, perhaps because drylands are generally characterized by a larger variety of environmental stress factors and plant functional traits. The frequency of facilitative interactions in alpine communities peaked at 1000 mm of annual rainfall, and globally decreased with elevation. The frequency of positive interactions in dtyland communities decreased globally with water scarcity or temperature annual range. Positive facilitation-drought stress relationships are more likely in shorter regional gradients, but these relationships are obscured in regions with a greater species turnover or with complex environmental gradients. By showing the different climatic drivers and behaviors of plant-plant interactions in dryland and alpine areas, our results will improve predictions regarding the effect of facilitation on the assembly of plant communities and their response to changes in environmental conditions.

Simulated heat waves affected alpine grassland only in combination with drought

The Alpine region is warming fast, and concurrently, the frequency and intensity of climate extremes are increasing. It is currently unclear whether alpine ecosystems are sensitive or resistant to such extremes. We subjected Swiss alpine grassland communities to heat waves with varying intensity by transplanting monoliths to four different elevations (2440–660 m above sea level) for 17 d. Half of these were regularly irrigated while the other half were deprived of irrigation to additionally induce a drought at each site. Heat waves had no significant impacts on fluorescence (Fv/Fm, a stress indicator), senescence and aboveground productivity if irrigation was provided. However, when heat waves coincided with drought, the plants showed clear signs of stress, resulting in vegetation browning and reduced phytomass production. This likely resulted from direct drought effects, but also, as measurements of stomatal conductance and canopy temperatures suggest, from increased high-temperature stress as water scarcity decreased heat mitigation through transpiration. The immediate responses to heat waves (with or without droughts) recorded in these alpine grasslands were similar to those observed in the more extensively studied grasslands from temperate climates. Responses following climate extremes may differ in alpine environments, however, because the short growing season likely constrains recovery.

An economic modelling approach for vulnerability assesment in irrigation farms in Spain

In the last years, vulnerability assessment has emerged as a need for policy making instead of being a pure academic exercise (Hinkel, 2010). In the current context of changing climate, increasing water scarcity threatens economic activities in many arid or semi-arid regions of the World. Climate change (CC) science and policy debates have traditionally focused on CC mitigation and impact assessment (Krysanova et al., 2010). However, even if mitigation policies are successfully enforced some climate change is still expected. Then, adaptation is strongly necessary and, for that, improved knowledge on vulnerability and adaptive capacity is required.

Propuesta metodológica para la identificación de medidas de adaptación al cambio climático en sistemas de recursos hídricos

Esta tesis realiza una contribución metodológica en el estudio de medidas de adaptación potencialmente adecuadas a largo plazo, donde los sistemas de recursos hídricos experimentan fuertes presiones debido a los efectos del cambio climático. Esta metodología integra el análisis físico del sistema, basándose en el uso de indicadores que valoran el comportamiento de éste, y el análisis económico mediante el uso del valor del agua. El procedimiento metodológico inicia con la construcción de un conjunto de escenarios futuros, que capturan por un lado las características de variabilidad de las aportaciones de diversos modelos climáticos y, por otro, las características hidrológicas de la zona de estudio. Las zonas de estudio seleccionadas fueron las cuencas del Guadalquivir, Duero y Ebro y se utilizaron como datos observados las series de escorrentía en régimen natural estimadas por el modelo SIMPA que está calibrado en la totalidad del territorio español. Estas series observadas corresponden al periodo 1961-1990. Los escenarios futuros construidos representan el periodo 2071-2100. La identificación de medidas de adaptación se apoyó en el uso de indicadores que sean capaces de caracterizar el comportamiento de un sistema de recursos hídricos frente a los efectos del cambio climático. Para ello se seleccionaron los indicadores de calidad de servicio (I1) y de confiabilidad de la demanda (I2) propuestos por Martin-Carrasco et al. (2012). Estos indicadores valoran el comportamiento de un sistema mediante la identificación de los problemas de escasez de agua que presente, y requieren para su cuantificación el uso de un modelo de optimización. Para este estudio se ha trabajado con el modelo de optimización OPTIGES. La determinación de estos indicadores fue realizada para análisis a corto plazo donde los efectos del cambio climático no son de relevancia, por lo que fue necesario analizar su capacidad para ser usados en sistemas afectados por dichos efectos. Para este análisis se seleccionaron tres cuencas españolas: Guadalquivir, Duero y Ebro, determinándose que I2 no es adecuado para este tipo de escenarios. Por ello se propuso un nuevo indicador “Indicador de calidad de servicio bajo cambio climático” (I2p) que mantiene los mismos criterios de valoración que I2 pero que responde mejor bajo fuertes reducciones de aportaciones producto del cambio climático. La metodología propuesta para la identificación de medidas de adaptación se basa en un proceso iterativo en el cual se van afectando diversos elementos que conforman el esquema del sistema bajo acciones de gestión previamente identificadas, hasta llegar a un comportamiento óptimo dado por el gestor. Las mejoras de estas afectaciones son cuantificadas mediante los indicadores I1 e I2p, y de este conjunto de valores se selecciona la que se acerca más al comportamiento óptimo. Debido a la extensa cantidad de información manejada en este análisis, se desarrolló una herramienta de cálculo automatizada en Matlab. El proceso seguido por esta herramienta es: (i) Ejecución del modelo OPTIGES para las diferentes modificaciones por acciones de gestión; (ii) Cálculo de los valores de I1 e I2p para cada una de estas afectaciones; y (iii) Selección de la mejor opción. Este proceso se repite hasta llegar al comportamiento óptimo buscado, permitiendo la identificación de las medidas de adaptación mas adecuadas. La aplicación de la metodología para la identificación de medidas de adaptación se realizó en la cuenca del Guadalquivir, por ser de las tres cuencas analizadas bajo los indicadores I1 e I2p la que presenta los problemas más serios de escasez de agua. Para la identificación de medidas de adaptación se analizaron dos acciones de gestión: 1) incremento de los volúmenes de regulación y 2) reducción de las demandas de riego, primero bajo la valoración del comportamiento físico del sistema (análisis de sensibilidad) permitiendo identificar que la primera acción de gestión no genera cambios importantes en el comportamiento del sistema, que si se presentan bajo la segunda acción. Posteriormente, con la acción que genera cambios importantes en el comportamiento del sistema (segunda acción) se identificaron las medidas de adaptación más adecuadas, mediante el análisis físico y económico del sistema. Se concluyó que en la cuenca del Guadalquivir, la acción de reducción de las demandas de riego permite minimizar e incluso eliminar los problemas de escasez de agua que se presentarían a futuro bajo diferentes proyecciones hidrológicas, aunque estas mejoras implicarían fuertes reducciones en dichas demandas. Siendo las demandas más afectadas aquellas ubicadas en cabecera de cuenca. Los criterios para la reducción de las demandas se encuentran en función de las productividades y garantías con las que son atendidas dichas demandas. This thesis makes a methodological contribution to the study of potentially suitable adaptation measures in the long term, where water resource systems undergo strong pressure due to the effects of climate change. This methodology integrates the physical analysis of the system, by the use of indicators which assess its behavior, and the economic analysis by the use of the value of water. The methodological procedure begins with the building of a set of future scenarios that capture, by one hand, the characteristics and variability of the streamflow of various climate models and, on the other hand, the hydrological characteristics of the study area. The study areas chosen were the Guadalquivir, Ebro and Duero basins, and as observed data where used runoff series in natural regimen estimated by the SIMPA model, which is calibrated in the whole Spanish territory. The observed series are for the 1961-1990 period. The future scenarios built represent the 2071-2100 periods. The identification of adaptation measures relied on the use of indicators that were able of characterize the behavior of one water resource system facing the effects of climate change. Because of that, the Demand Satisfaction Index (I1) and the Demand Reliability Index (I2) proposed by Martin-Carrasco et al. (2012) were selected. These indicators assess the behavior of a system by identifying the water scarcity problems that it presents, and require in order to be quantified the use of one optimization model. For this study the OPTIGES optimization model has been used. The determination of the indicators was made for the short-term analysis where the climates change effect are not relevant, so it was necessary to analyze their capability to be used in systems affected by those these. For this analysis three Spanish basins were selected: Guadalquivir, Duero and Ebro. It was determined that the indicator I2 is not suitable for this type of scenario. It was proposed a new indicator called “Demand Reliability Index under climate change” (I2p), which keeps the same assessment criteria than I2, but responsive under heavy reductions of streamflow due to climate change. The proposed methodology for identifying adaptation measures is based on an iterative process, in which the different elements of the system´s schema are affected by previously defined management actions, until reach an optimal behavior given by the manager. The improvements of affectations are measured by indicators I1 e I2p, and from this set of values it is selected the affectation that is closer to the optimal behavior. Due to the large amount of information managed in this analysis, it was developed an automatic calculation tool in Matlab. The process followed by this tool is: Firstly, it executes the OPTIGES model for the different modifications by management actions; secondly, it calculates the values of I1 e I2p for each of these affectations; and finally it chooses the best option. This process is performed for the different iterations that are required until reach the optimal behavior, allowing to identify the most appropriate adaptation measured. The application of the methodology for the identification of adaptation measures was conducted in the Guadalquivir basin, due to this was from the three basins analyzed under the indicators I1 e I2p, which presents the most serious problems of water scarcity. For the identification of adaptation measures there were analyzed two management actions: 1) To increase the regulation volumes, and 2) to reduce the irrigation demands, first under the assessment of the physical behavior of the system (sensibility analysis), allowing to identify that the first management action does not generate significant changes in the system´s behavior, which there are present under the second management action. Afterwards, with the management action that generates significant changes in the system´s behavior (second management action), there were identified the most adequate adaptation measures, through the physical and economic analysis of the system. It was concluded that in the Guadalquivir basin, the action of reduction of irrigation demands allows to minimize or even eliminate the water scarcity problems that could exist in the future under different hydrologic projections, although this improvements should involve strong reductions of the irrigation demands. Being the most affected demands those located in basins head. The criteria for reducing the demands are based on the productivities and reliabilities with which such demands are meet.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

Direct and indirect economic impacts of drought in the agri-food sector in the Ebro River basin (Spain).

The economic evaluation of drought impacts is essential in order to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation strategies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the economic impacts of a drought event on the agricultural sector and measure how they are transmitted from primary production to industrial output and related employment. We fit econometric models to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water storage. The direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity are measured through a direct attribution model. Indirect impacts on agricultural employment and the agri-food industry are evaluated through a nested indirect attribution model. The transmission of water scarcity effects from agricultural production to macroeconomic variables is measured through chained elasticities. The models allow for differentiating the impacts deriving from water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results show that the importance of drought impacts are less relevant at the macroeconomic level, but are more significant for those activities directly dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. From a management perspective, implications of these findings are important to develop effective mitigation strategies to reduce drought risk exposure.

Metodología de integración de actividades de adaptación al cambio climático en proyectos de desarrollo rural

Hoy en día, ya no se puede pasar por alto la necesidad de una agricultura climáticamente más inteligente para los 500 millones de pequeños agricultores del mundo (Wheeler, 2013). Estos representan aproximadamente el 60 % de la agricultura mundial y proporcionan hasta el 80 % de los alimentos en los países en vías de desarrollo, los pequeños agricultores gestionan vastas extensiones de tierra y lamentablemente incluyen los grupos con mayor proporción de personas en estado de inseguridad alimentaria. El cambio climático está transformando el contexto para la agricultura en pequeña escala. Durante siglos, los pequeños agricultores desarrollaron la capacidad de adaptarse a los cambios ambientales y la variabilidad del clima, pero la velocidad y la intensidad del cambio climático está superando su capacidad de respuesta. Si no se cambia la manera que tenemos de lidiar con el cambio climático, tanto en acciones locales como globales, es muy probable que las personas rurales de entornos vulnerables tengan que adaptarse a un calentamiento global promedio de 4 °C por encima de los niveles preindustriales para el año 2100. Esta alza de las temperaturas aumentará aún más la incertidumbre y provocará desastres naturales como las sequías, la erosión del suelo, la pérdida de biodiversidad y la escasez agua sean mucho más frecuentes. Uno de los factores más importantes para los pequeños agricultores es que ya no pueden depender de los promedios históricos, por lo que es más difícil para ellos para planificar y gestionar la producción debido a los cambios en los patrones climáticos. Algunos de los principales cultivos de cereales (trigo, arroz, maíz, etc.) han alcanzado su umbral de tolerancia al calor y un aumento de la temperatura en torno a 1,5-2 °C podría ser muy perjudicial. Estos efectos a corto plazo podrían ser agravados por otros a medio y largo plazo, los que se refieren al impacto socioeconómico en términos de oportunidades y estabilidad política. El cambio climático está haciendo que el desarrollo de la pequeña agricultura resulte mucho más caro. A nivel de proyectos, los programas resistentes al clima tienen, normalmente, unos costos iniciales más altos, tanto de diseño como de implementación. Por ejemplo, es necesario incluir gastos adicionales en infraestructura, operación y mantenimiento; desarrollo de nuevas capacidades y el intercambio de conocimientos en torno al cambio climático. También se necesita mayor inversión para fortalecer las instituciones frente a los nuevos retos que propone el cambio climático, o generar información que pueda ser de escala reducida y con enfoques que beneficien a la comunidad, el cambio climático es global pero los efectos son locales. Es, por tanto, el momento de redefinir la relación entre agricultura y medio ambiente, ya que se hace cada vez más necesario buscar mejores y más eficientes maneras para responder al cambio climático. Es importante señalar que la respuesta al cambio climático no significa reinventar todo lo que se ha aprendido sobre el desarrollo, significa aplicar un esfuerzo renovado para hacer frente a los cambios en el trabajo de cooperación al desarrollo de una manera más sistemática y más amplia. Una respuesta coherente al cambio climático requiere que la comunidad internacional reconozca la necesidad de aumentar el apoyo financiero para la adaptación así como un mayor énfasis en proporcionar soluciones diseñadas para aumentar la resiliencia1 de los pequeños agricultores a las crisis relacionadas con el clima. Con el fin de responder a algunos de los desafíos mencionados anteriormente, esta investigación pretende contribuir a fortalecer las capacidades de los pequeños productores, aquellos que actualmente están la primera línea frente a los desafíos del cambio climático, promoviendo un desarrollo que tenga un impacto positivo en sus medios de vida. La tesis se compone de cuatro capítulos. El primero define y analiza el marco teórico de las interacciones entre el cambio climático y el impacto en los proyectos de desarrollo rural, especialmente los que tienen por objetivo mejorar la seguridad alimentaria de los pequeños productores. En ese mismo capítulo, se presenta una revisión global de la financiación climática, incluyendo la necesidad de asignar suficientes recursos para la adaptación. Con el fin de lograr una mayor eficacia e impacto en los proyectos de desarrollo, la investigación desarrolla una metodología para integrar actividades de adaptación al cambio climático, presentada en el segundo capítulo. Esta metodología fue implementada y validada durante el periodo 2012-14, trabajando directamente con diferentes equipos gubernamentales en diez proyectos del Fondo Internacional de Desarrollo Agrícola ). El tercero presenta, de manera detallada, la aplicación de la metodología a los estudios de caso de Bolivia y Nicaragua, así como un resumen de las principales conclusiones en la aplicación de los ocho países restantes. Finalmente, en el último capítulo se presentan las conclusiones y un esbozo de futuras líneas de investigación. Actualmente, el tema de la sostenibilidad ambiental y el cambio climático está ganando terreno en la agenda de desarrollo. Es por ello que se alumbra esta investigación, para que a través de los resultados obtenidos y la implementación de la metodología propuesta, sirva como herramienta estratégica para la planificación y la gestión operativa a la hora de integrar iniciativas de adaptación en los proyectos de desarrollo rural. ABSTRACT The need for climate-smart agriculture for the world’s 500 million smallholder farms cannot be overlooked: they account for 60 per cent of global agriculture, provide up to 80 per cent of food in developing countries, manage vast areas of land and make up the largest share of the developing world’s undernourished. Climate change is transforming the context for smallholder agriculture. Over centuries smallholders have developed the capacity to adapt to environmental change and climate variability, but the speed and intensity of climate change is outpacing the speed of historically autonomous actions. In the absence of a profound step-change in local and global action on climate change, it is Increasingly likely that poor rural people would need to contend with an average global warming of 4 degrees above pre-industrial levels by 2100, if not sooner. Such substantial climatic change will further increase uncertainty and exacerbate weather –related disasters, droughts, biodiversity loss, and land and water scarcity. Perhaps most significantly for smallholder farmers, they can no longer rely on historical averages, making it harder for them to plan and manage production when planting seasons and weather patterns are shifting. The major cereal crops (wheat, rice, maize, etc.) are at their heat tolerance threshold and with a 1.5-2°C temperature increase could collapse. These “first-round” effects will be compounded by second-round socio-economic impacts in terms of economic opportunities and political stability. Climate change is making the development of smallholder agriculture more expensive. At project level, climate-resilient programmes typically have higher up-front design and implementation costs – e.g. infrastructure costs and initially increased asset management, operation and maintenance, more capacity-building and knowledge sharing, strengthening institutions, greater project development costs (downscaled data generation and community-based approaches), and greater costs from enhancing cross sectorial and stakeholders collaboration. Consequently it’s time to redefine the relationship between agriculture and environment as we need to look better and more efficient ways to respond to climate change. It is important to note that responding to climate change does not mean to throwing out or reinventing everything that has been learnt about development. It means a renewed effort to tackle wider and well-known development changes in a more systematic way. A coherent response to climate change requires acknowledge of the need to increase the financial support for adaptation and a continued emphasis on provided solutions designed to increase the resilience of smallholders and poor communities to shocks, which are weather related. In order to respond to some of the challenges mentioned before, this research aims to contribute to strengthen the capacities of the smallholders and to promote a development that will positively impact in the rural livelihoods of the most vulnerable smallholders farmers; those who currently are in the first line facing the challenges of climate change. The thesis has four chapters. Chapter one describes and analyses the theoretical framework of the interactions between climate change and the impact on rural development projects, especially those aimed at improving the food security of smallholders producers. In this chapter a comprehensive review of climate financing is presented, including the need to allocate sufficient resources for adaptation. In order to achieve greater effectiveness and impact on development projects, the research develops in the second chapter a methodology to integrate adaptation activities for climate change. This methodology was implemented and validated during the 2012-14 period, working directly with various government teams in ten projects of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). The third chapter presents in detail the application of the methodology to the case studies of Bolivia and Nicaragua, as well as a summary of the main conclusions of its implementation in the remaining eight countries. The final chapter exposes the main conclusions and future research topics. At a time when environmental sustainability and climate change issues are gaining more attention, the research and obtained results through the implementation of the model methodology proposed, can be considered a strategic tool for planning and operational management to integrate adaptation initiatives in rural development projects. The use of the proposed methodology will boost incentives to scale up climate resilience programmes and integrate adaptation to climate change into wider smallholder development programmes.

O conceito de equilíbrio hidráulico e termodinâmico da água no solo aplicado ao estudo da curva de retenção e murchamento de plantas

Estimativas sobre alterações climáticas globais têm aumentando a demanda por estudos sobre propriedades dos solos relativamente secos e limitações impostas à absorção de água pelas plantas em condições de escassez hídrica. Neste estudo, fatores que influenciam a retenção da água no solo e o murchamento de plantas foram avaliados com base no conceito de equilíbrio da água no solo. Objetivou-se com este estudo: (i) avaliar a confiabilidade de medições do conteúdo de água no solo sob altas sucções matriciais em câmaras de pressão, usando como referência a técnica de ponto de orvalho (ii) avaliar as interações entre espécies de plantas e solos com diferentes classes texturais no ponto de murcha permanente (iii) investigar as relações entre equilíbrio hidráulico da água no solo e murchamento de plantas a partir do conceito de corte hidráulico. Para tanto, um experimento para avaliar a influência dos tipos de solos e espécies de plantas, no ponto de murcha permanente foi conduzido em casa de vegetação da Escola Superior de Agricultura \"Luiz de Queiroz\" da Universidade de São Paulo, Piracicaba, São Paulo. Avaliou-se o murchamento de plantas de girassol (Helianthus annuus L.), milho (Zea mays L.) e soja (Glycine max L.). Os solos utilizados no estudo foram coletados na camada superficial (0-10 cm) em quatro áreas, selecionadas com o objetivo de obter classes texturais contrastantes, localizadas no município de Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brasil. Sub-amostras foram utilizadas para determinação da distribuição do tamanho de partículas e atributos químicos. Amostras indeformadas foram coletadas para a determinação da curva de retenção da água no solo pela técnica de câmaras de pressão. Adicionalmente, amostras deformadas foram utilizadas para determinação das características de retenção da água no solo pela técnica do ponto de orvalho em altos valores de sucções matriciais. Os dados de retenção de água no solo foram ajustados a modelos empíricos para estimativas da sucção matricial e conteúdo de água relacionada à água em equilíbrio hidráulico (água residual). Foram observadas similaridades nas determinações das características de retenção da água no solo entre as técnicas de câmaras de pressão e ponto de orvalho, sugerindo a boa drenagem das amostras de solo em câmaras de pressão. Interações significativas foram observadas entre os tipos de solos e espécies de plantas no ponto de murcha permanente, indicando que o movimento de água no contínuo solo-planta-atmosfera foi dependente de resistências relacionadas tanto ao solo quanto às plantas. Ou seja, tanto à capacidade do solo em transportar água até raízes, quanto à habilidade das plantas em absorver a água transportada, assim como, aos processos de regulação de água que ocorrem nas plantas. A abordagem baseada no conteúdo de água residual para o intervalo de sucções matriciais de 0 a 15.000 hPa não foi adequada para ilustrar a condição de equilíbrio hidráulico da água no solo, definidos pelo corte hidráulico, e relações com as sucções matriciais em ocorre o murchamento de plantas.

Propiedad, control y gestión del agua en regadíos deficitarios del Sureste español: la huerta de Alicante durante la Edad Moderna

La Huerta de Alicante, prototipo de los denominados regadíos deficitarios o secanos mejorados, ofrece uno de los mejores ejemplos de cómo la escasez hídrica activó la búsqueda de soluciones técnicas, propició la inversión en infraestructuras hidráulicas y desarrolló unas peculiares relaciones entre los labradores regantes y los propietarios del agua. La gestión de los recursos hídricos y su distribución por estricto cómputo horario por parte del municipio alicantino hasta 1739 permitió, pese a los condicionantes físicos y climáticos, el desarrollo de una actividad agrícola significativa durante los siglos modernos. La temprana separación del agua de la tierra a la que estaba adscrita en los primeros repartos medievales provocó numerosos conflictos a lo largo de la historia e intentos de unificar ambas propiedades, algo que nunca se consiguió.

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.