Models and applications for risk assessment and prediction of Asian soybean rust epidemics

Asian rust of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merril] is one of the most important fungal diseases of this crop worldwide. The recent introduction of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Syd. & P. Syd in the Americas represents a major threat to soybean production in the main growing regions, and significant losses have already been reported. P. pachyrhizi is extremely aggressive under favorable weather conditions, causing rapid plant defoliation. Epidemiological studies, under both controlled and natural environmental conditions, have been done for several decades with the aim of elucidating factors that affect the disease cycle as a basis for disease modeling. The recent spread of Asian soybean rust to major production regions in the world has promoted new development, testing and application of mathematical models to assess the risk and predict the disease. These efforts have included the integration of new data, epidemiological knowledge, statistical methods, and advances in computer simulation to develop models and systems with different spatial and temporal scales, objectives and audience. In this review, we present a comprehensive discussion on the models and systems that have been tested to predict and assess the risk of Asian soybean rust. Limitations, uncertainties and challenges for modelers are also discussed.

Characteristics of credit risk assessment methods of major Nordic banks in allocating capital when extending credits to large corporations

Credit risk assessment is an integral part of banking. Credit risk means that the return will not materialise in case the customer fails to fulfil its obligations. Thus a key component of banking is setting acceptance criteria for granting loans. Theoretical part of the study focuses on key components of credit assessment methods of Banks in the literature when extending credits to large corporations. Main component is Basel II Accord, which sets regulatory requirement for credit risk assessment methods of banks. Empirical part comprises, as primary source, analysis of major Nordic banks’ annual reports and risk management reports. As secondary source complimentary interviews were carried out with senior credit risk assessment personnel. The findings indicate that all major Nordic banks are using combination of quantitative and qualitative information in credit risk assessment model when extending credits to large corporations. The relative input of qualitative information depends on the selected approach to the credit rating, i.e. point-in-time or through-the-cycle.

Risk Assessment of a Supplier in the Pharmaceutical Industry

The topic of this Master’s Thesis is risk assessment in the supply chain, and the work was done for a company operating in the pharmaceutical industry. The unique features of the industry bring additional challenges to risk management, due to high regulatory, docu-mentation and traceability requirements. The objective of the thesis was to generate a template for assessing the risks in the supply chain of current and potential suppliers of the case company. Risks pertaining to the case setting were sought mainly from in-house expertise of this specific product and supply chain as well as academic research papers and theory on risk management. A questionnaire was set up to assess the found risks on impact, occurrence and possibility of detection. Through this classification of the severity of the risks, the supplier assessment template was formed. A questionnaire template, comprised of the top 10 risks affecting the flow of information and materials in this setting, was formulated to serve as a generic tool for assessing risks in the supply chain of a pharmaceutical company. The template was tested on another supplier for usability and accuracy of found risks, and it demonstrated functioning in a differing supply chain and product setting.

Risk Assessment of Modern Landfill Structures in Finland

The purpose of this thesis was to investigate environmental permits of landfills with respect to the appropriateness of risk assessments focusing on contaminant migration, structures capable to protect the environment, waste and leachate management and existing environmental impacts of landfills. According to the requirements, a risk assessment is always required to demonstrate compliance with environmental protection requirements if the environmental permit decision deviates from the set requirements. However, there is a reason to doubt that all relevant risk factors are identified in current risk assessment practices in order to protect people end environment. In this dissertation, risk factors were recognized in 12 randomly selected landfills. Based on this analysis, a structural risk assessment method was created. The method was verified with two case examples. Several development needs were found in the risk assessments of the environmental permit decisions. The risk analysis equations used in the decisions did not adequately take into account all the determining factors like waste prospects, total risk quantification or human delineated factors. Instead of focusing on crucial factors, the landfill environmental protection capability is simply expressed via technical factors like hydraulic conductivity. In this thesis, it could be shown, that using adequate risk assessment approaches the most essential environmental impacts can be taken into account by consideration of contaminant transport mechanisms, leachate effects, and artificial landfill structures. The developed structural risk analysing (SRA) method shows, that landfills structures could be designed in a more cost-efficient way taking advantage of recycled or by-products. Additionally, the research results demonstrate that the environmental protection requirements of landfills should be updated to correspond to the capability to protect the environment instead of the current simplified requirements related to advective transport only.

Estimate of dietary intake of chloropropanols (3-MCPD and 1,3-DCP) and health risk assessment

Chloropropanols, including 3-monochloropropane-1,2-diol (3-MCPD) and 1,3-dichloropropan-2-ol (1,3-DCP), comprise a group of chemical contaminants with carcinogenic and genotoxic properties. They have been found in a variety of processed foods and food ingredients, such as hydrolyzed vegetable protein, soy sauce, cereal-based products, malt-derived ingredients, and smoked foods. This study aimed to assess the dietary exposure to 3-MCPD and 1,3-DCP in Brazil and verify whether the presence of these substances in foods could represent health risks. The intake was calculated by combining data on food consumption, provided by the Consumer Expenditure Survey 2008-2009, with the levels of contaminant occurrence determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The exposure to 3-MCPD ranged from 0.06 to 0.51 µg.kg bw-1.day-1 considering average and high consumers, while the intake of 1,3-DCP was estimated to be 0.0036 µg.kg bw-1.day-1 in the worst case scenario evaluated. Based on these results, it was verified that the Brazilians' exposure to chloropropanols does not present a significant health risk. However, the consumption of specific foods containing high levels of 3-MCPD could exceed the provisional maximum tolerable daily intake of 2 µg.kg bw-1 established for this compound and, therefore, represent a potential concern.

Risk Assessment of Rooftop- Collected Rainwater for Individual Household and Community Use in Central Kerala, India

Water quality of rooftop-collected rainwater is an issue of increased interest particularly in developing countries where the collected water is used as a source of drinking water. Bacteriological and chemical parameters of 25 samples of rooftop-harvested rainwater stored in ferrocement tanks were analyzed in the study described in this article. Except for the pH and lower dissolved oxygen levels, all other physicochemical parameters were within World Health Organization guidelines. Bacteriological results revealed that the rooftop-harvested rainwater stored in tanks does not often meet the bacteriological quality standards prescribed for drinking water. Fifty percent of samples of harvested rainwater for rural and urban community use and 20% of the samples for individual household use showed the presence of E. coli. Fecal coliform/fecal streptococci ratios revealed nonhuman animal sources of fecal pollution. Risk assessment of bacterial isolates from the harvested rainwater showed high resistance to ampicillin, erythromycin, penicillin, and vancomycin. Multiple antibiotic resistance (MAR) indexing of the isolates and elucidation of the resistance patterns revealed that 73% of the isolates exhibited MAR

Animal Biosafety Risk Assessment and Management Training Video

This training video is intended to familiarise researchers and technicians working in animal containment facilities with appropriate risk assessment and risk management systems. It is in Windows Media Video format which will require a free media player such as Windows Media Player or VLC Media Player (http://www.videolan.org/vlc/) to watch.

Risk Assessment for blackboard 2011

This resource is for Health Scientists

Envisioning (starting the project)2: User Stories, Sprint Planning, Risk Assessment

Second in a two part set of lectures on Agile Envisioning. The lectures describe the process of starting up a project. 1) creating a shared understanding amongst the team and customers using Stakeholder Analysis, Personas and User stories 2) Sprint planning and using a burndown chart 3) Risk assessment

Human exposure modelling for chemical risk assessment: a review of current approaches and research and policy implications

A wide variety of exposure models are currently employed for health risk assessments. Individual models have been developed to meet the chemical exposure assessment needs of Government, industry and academia. These existing exposure models can be broadly categorised according to the following types of exposure source: environmental, dietary, consumer product, occupational, and aggregate and cumulative. Aggregate exposure models consider multiple exposure pathways, while cumulative models consider multiple chemicals. In this paper each of these basic types of exposure model are briefly described, along with any inherent strengths or weaknesses, with the UK as a case study. Examples are given of specific exposure models that are currently used, or that have the potential for future use, and key differences in modelling approaches adopted are discussed. The use of exposure models is currently fragmentary in nature. Specific organisations with exposure assessment responsibilities tend to use a limited range of models. The modelling techniques adopted in current exposure models have evolved along distinct lines for the various types of source. In fact different organisations may be using different models for very similar exposure assessment situations. This lack of consistency between exposure modelling practices can make understanding the exposure assessment process more complex, can lead to inconsistency between organisations in how critical modelling issues are addressed (e.g. variability and uncertainty), and has the potential to communicate mixed messages to the general public. Further work should be conducted to integrate the various approaches and models, where possible and regulatory remits allow, to get a coherent and consistent exposure modelling process. We recommend the development of an overall framework for exposure and risk assessment with common approaches and methodology, a screening tool for exposure assessment, collection of better input data, probabilistic modelling, validation of model input and output and a closer working relationship between scientists and policy makers and staff from different Government departments. A much increased effort is required is required in the UK to address these issues. The result will be a more robust, transparent, valid and more comparable exposure and risk assessment process. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.