La transformación del sistema de partidos políticos en Turquía entre 2001 y 2014

El propósito de esta investigación es analizar los cambios que trajo consigo la llegada del Partido de la Justicia y Desarrollo al poder (AKP), en Turquía. Este partido se presentó como conservador moderado y democrático y esto le permitió llegar al poder y mantenerlo desde 2001 hasta la actualidad, pues recibió el apoyo de diversos grupos políticos. La noción general que dio el AKP a la opinión pública era que un partido conservador estaba iniciando un proceso democrático real en Turquía. Sin embargo, el líder del AKP y sus seguidores viraron, desde el 2007, hacia el islamismo. Usando la teoría del clivaje social, propuesta Stein Rokkan y Seymour Lipset, se intenta demostrar que los cambios realizados por el AKP fueron una estrategia para blindarse en el poder, pero el sistema de partidos mantuvo la lógica de los clivajes tradicionales y el clivaje islamismo-kemalismo se consolidó como el principal.

La política exterior turca en el marco del Complejo de Seguridad Regional de Medio Oriente. Del soft power al smart power. (2002 - 2013)

Dada la confluencia de Turquía en Asia, Medio Oriente, los Balcanes y Europa, el gobierno está en la necesidad de responder a los desafíos de ser un Estado pivote. Es en este punto donde su política exterior se convierte en la mayor herramienta para sobresalir y sobrevivir en un ambiente heterogéneo. El objetivo de esta monografía de grado es analizar la política exterior turca en el marco del Complejo de Seguridad Regional de Medio Oriente a partir de los aportes de la Escuela de Copenhague y su Teoría de los Complejos de Seguridad Regional, para comprender sus estrategias de soft y hard power en su política exterior a fin de analizar si se consolidó un smart power que permita posicionar a Turquía en una potencia regional.

La securitización de la migración internacional: percepción de la UE sobre el flujo de rumanos hacia el Reino Unido 2007-2014

Actualmente, el concepto de seguridad ha logrado expandirse hacia la inclusión de amenazas no tradicionales. En este contexto, el fenómeno de la migración internacional empieza a hacer parte de la agenda de algunos gobiernos, entendiéndose como un asunto que amenaza la seguridad del Estado. El interés de esta monografía gira en torno a examinar el discurso securitizador del Reino Unido sobre la inmigración rumana entre 2007-2014, con el fin de determinar la incidencia que este ha tenido en la percepción de la migración internacional como un asunto de seguridad en la UE. Al entender el discurso del Reino Unido a la luz de la teoría de securitización e incluir el análisis de la opinión pública europea, se observa que, si bien el discurso ha influido en el contexto doméstico, éste ha tenido una baja incidencia en la percepción de la migración internacional como un asunto de seguridad en la UE.

Irrigation performance and gross water productivity in furrow-irrigated ornamental tree production

In the ornamental plant production region of Girona (Spain), which is one of the largest of its kind in southern Europe, most of the surface is irrigated using wide blocked-end furrows. The objectives of this paper were: (1) to evaluate the irrigation scheduling methods used by ornamental plant producers; (2) to analyse different scenarios in order to assess how they affect irrigation performance; (3) to evaluate the risk of deep percolation; and (4) to calculate gross water productivity. A two-year study in a representative commercial field, planted with Prunus cerasifera ‘Nigra’, was carried out. The irrigation dose applied by the farmers was slightly smaller than the required water dose estimated by the use of two different methods: the first based on soil water content, and the second based on evapotranspiration. Distribution uniformity and application efficiency were high, with mean values above 87%. Soil water content measurements revealed that even at the end of the furrow, where the infiltrated water depth was greatest, more than 90% of the infiltrated water was retained in the shallowest 40 cm of the soil; accordingly, the risk of water loss due to deep percolation was minimal. Gross water productivity for ornamental tree production was € 11.70 m–3, approximately 20 times higher than that obtained with maize in the same region

A construção da União Europeia : um olhar sobre a dimensão social do projeto

O Tratado de Roma de 1957 priorizou o setor económico em detrimento do social. Em consequência, cada Estado-membro manteve o seu modelo de assistência social e , deste modo, a diversidade de Estados-providência. Mais tarde, o princípio da subsidariedade legitimou-os no contexto do processo de construção da Comunidade Económica/União Europeia e, por consequinte, a coexistência dos mesmos, particularmente os submodelos de assistência social escandinavo, anglo-saxónico, continental e dos países da Europa do sul. Hoje, graças ao Ato Único Europeu e ao Tratado de Amesterdão de 1997, foi adotada por todos os Estados-membros a Carta dos Direitos Sociais Fundamentais no Conselho de Estrasburgo de 1989, assim como valorizada a dimensão social e o incentivo à negociação coletiva entre parceiros, respetivamente. Assim, sendo, e na sequência do exposto anteriormente, constata-se, nessa nova EUropa em transformação permanente, a emergência de um novo modelo de Estado-providência, centrado essencialmente na compilação, complementariedade e/ou «fusão» do que existe de melhor no conjunto dos quatro submodelos existentes, de acordo com o princípio da unidade a partir da diversidade.

A universidade e o seu contributo para o desenvolvimento da União Europeia

O trabalho presente é uma investigação sobre a Universidade sua génese e diversidade, caminhada e desenvolvimento, prosperidade em crescimento, papel cultural e fonte de conhecimento seus momentos de glória, seu de impasse e de crise e tentativas para devolver a glória e prestigio de outrora. Nasceu na Europa Meridional com o título de “Studium Generale”. Não nasceu nem “ex abrupto” nem “ex nihilo”, a sua génese remonta às escolas religiosas dos conventos e catedrais onde se conservavam os documentos da cultura greco – latina que mais tarde imperará na Europa sob o antropocentrismo, em oposição ao Teocentrismo. O “Studium General” nasce sobre o patrocínio da Igreja que mantinha como disciplinas principais nestes centros a Teologia e Filosofia, cuja leccionação é circunscrita a poucas Escolas e professores escolhidos. Acorriam à Universidade alunos de todos os cantos da Europa, evidentemente com meios e frades alunos pobres e para os frades criaram-se colégios que os acolhiam e protegiam. A reunião de estudantes devido a disturbios gerou ambiente controverso e obrigou as autoridades governamentais a medidas quer de contenção quer de protecção a residentes e forasteiros. O estudante era um estrangeiro que se deslocava no espaço europeu consoante a fama dos professores. A língua latina foi o veiculo de ligação e comunicação. Pouco a pouco os estados foram-se dando conta do valor da universidade e dos seus ensinamentos e disputavam com a Igreja o seu patrocínio. A Universidade contribui para o desenvolvimento dos Estados a nível administrativo, do direito, da criação de leis dando aos Estados uma maior e melhor organização no seu desenvolvimento. As Universidades concediam graus académicos, sendo o maior o de doutor. Todos esperavam o apoio do saber académico e científico para vencer a luta pela existência. O sistema escolático criticado pelo humanismo deu origem a novos modelos de universidade que surgiram com a supervisão dos Estados. Os modelos a partir do século XIX, são: ingês, alemão, americano, francês e russo. A universidade passa a ser o lugar do ensino superior, com o repúdio ao tradicinal e a investigação passa a fazer parte do papel da universidade. Em Portugal criou-se estruturas de apoio à formação de professores especialmente o sector de ciência e educação. Tardiamente a União Europeia dá atenção à educação criando programas como o Sócrates cujas acções são Comenios, Erasmus, Grundvig, Língua e Minerva. A mobilidade estudantil torna-se realidade na Europa e a flexibilidade na educação. A função da universidade actual ocupa-se do sector industrial e pós industrial da sociedade de informação, economia e empresa. Universidade como serviço público e mercado. Foi pena que a União Europeia, não reconhecesse ao Homem a centralidade de que tem direito, e esquecesse que sem o homem não há desenvolvimento nem criatividade. Estruturou-se a economia e a política obliterou a educação, a cultura, a formação, isto é um castelo construído sobre areia. Relembrando Antero cabe dizer: “Abrem-se as portas de ouro com fragor Mas dentro encontro só cheiro de dor Silêncio e escuridão nada mais”. Hoje a nossa Universidade é um problema. O seu caminho terá de ser o da cultura e a da educação. Tem de ser vista como poder em época de crise e o permanente primeiro que o transitório. Donde a necessidade de uma gestão de qualidade e de uma educação permanente.

Intra-Euro rebalancing is inevitable, but insufficient. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/15, August 2012

Greece, Portugal and Spain face a serious risk of external solvency due to their close to minus 100 percent of GDP net negative international investment positions, which are largely composed of debt. The perceived inability of these countries to rebalance their external positions is a major root of the euro crisis. Intra-euro rebalancing through declines in unit labour costs (ULC) in southern Europe, and ULC increases in northern Europe should continue, but has limits because: The share of intra-euro trade has declined. Intra-euro trade balances have already adjusted to a great extent. The intra-euro real exchange rates of Greece, Portugal and Spain have also either already adjusted or do not indicate significant appreciations since 2000. There are only two main current account surplus countries, Germany and the Netherlands. A purely intra-euro adjustment strategy would require too-significant wage increases in northern countries and wage declines in southern countries, which do not seem to be feasible. Before the crisis, the euro was significantly overvalued despite the close-to balanced current account position. The euro has depreciated recently, but more is needed to support the extra-euro trade of southern euro-area members. A weaker euro would also boost exports, growth, inflation and wage increases in Germany, thereby helping further intra-euro adjustment and the survival of the euro.

Reflections: 50 Years of Medieval Archaeology, 1957-2007

This volume celebrates the 50th anniversary of the Society for Medieval Archaeology (established in 1957), presenting reflections on the history, development and future prospects of the discipline. The papers are drawn from a series of conferences and workshops that took place in 2007-2008, in addition to a number of contributions that were commissioned especially for the volume. They range from personal commentaries on the history of the Society and the growth of the subject, to historiographical, regional and thematic overviews of major trends in the evolution and current practice of medieval archaeology in Britain. Critical overviews are presented of the archaeology of medieval landscapes, buildings and material culture; new developments in the scientific study of medieval health, diet and materials; and innovations in social approaches to medieval archaeology. A series of papers on southern Europe provide a comparative perspective, featuring overviews on medieval archaeology in Italy, Spain and southeastern Europe.

Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations

Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society—particularly in regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However, climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover, standard resolution climate models have particular difficulty representing precipitation in the Middle East, which is modulated by complex topography, inland water bodies and proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. Here we compare precipitation changes over the twenty-first century against both millennial variability during the Holocene and interannual variability in the present day. In order to assess the climate model and to make consistent comparisons, this study uses new regional climate model simulations of the past, present and future in conjunction with proxy and historical observations. We show that the pattern of precipitation change within Europe and the Middle East projected by the end of the twenty-first century has some similarities to that which occurred during the Holocene. In both cases, a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track appear to cause decreased winter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East and increased rainfall further north. In contrast, on an interannual time scale, anomalously dry seasons in the Middle East are associated with a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the north Mediterranean and hence wet conditions throughout southern Europe.

Genetic structure and systematic relationships within the Ophrys fuciflora aggregate (Orchidaceae: Orchidinae): high diversity in Kent and a wind-induced discontinuity bisecting the Adriatic

A recent phylogenetic study based on multiple datasets is used as the framework for a more detailed examination of one of the ten molecularly circumscribed groups identified, the Ophrys fuciflora aggregate. The group is highly morphologically variable, prone to phenotypic convergence, shows low levels of sequence divergence and contains an unusually large proportion of threatened taxa, including the rarest Ophrys species in the UK. The aims of this study were to (a) circumscribe minimum resolvable genetically distinct entities within the O. fuciflora aggregate, and (b) assess the likelihood of gene flow between genetically and geographically distinct entities at the species and population levels. Fifty-five accessions sampled in Europe and Asia Minor from the O. fuciflora aggregate were studied using the AFLP genetic fingerprinting technique to evaluate levels of infraspecific and interspecific genetic variation and to assess genetic relationships between UK populations of O. fuciflora s.s. in Kent and in their continental European and Mediterranean counterparts. The two genetically and geographically distinct groups recovered, one located in England and central Europe and one in south-eastern Europe, are incongruent with current species delimitation within the aggregate as a whole and also within O. fuciflora s.s. Genetic diversity is higher in Kent than in the rest of western and central Europe. Gene flow is more likely to occur between populations in closer geographical proximity than those that are morphologically more similar. Little if any gene flow occurs between populations located in the south-eastern Mediterranean and those dispersed throughout the remainder of the distribution, revealing a genetic discontinuity that runs north-south through the Adriatic. This discontinuity is also evident in other clades of Ophrys and is tentatively attributed to the long-term influence of prevailing winds on the long-distance distribution of pollinia and especially seeds. A cline of gene flow connects populations from Kent and central and southern Europe; these individuals should therefore be considered part of an extensive meta-population. Gene flow is also evident among populations from Kent, which appear to constitute a single metapopulation. They show some evidence of hybridization, and possibly also introgression, with O. apifera.

Evidence for a residual postglacial founder effect in a highly dispersive freshwater invertebrate

In the northern hemisphere, glacial periods have had profound and lasting effects on the population genetics of numerous species, with founder effects often persisting for many generations in formerly glaciated regions. We found an unusual example of this in the freshwater bryozoan Cristatella mucedo, which showed regional differences in haplotype diversity with relatively low levels of haplotype diversity in northern Europe compared to central/southern Europe despite previous evidence for frequent dispersal between C. mucedo populations. Such contradictions between high dispersal and low gene flow have now been reported in several other freshwater taxa and may be attributed to persistent founder effects following colonization of sites by a few individuals whose efficient reproduction leads to rapid population growth. Alternatively, selection may determine which genotypes can thrive in northerly locations, or it may be that C. mucedo has undergone cryptic speciation. Future work on adaptive genomic regions is required before we can understand how gene flow, local adaptation, and speciation influence the current distribution patterns of bryozoans and other freshwater invertebrates.

QTLs for shelf life in lettuce co-locate with those for leaf biophysical properties but not with those for leaf developmental traits

Developmental and biophysical leaf characteristics that influence post-harvest shelf life in lettuce, an important leafy crop, have been examined. The traits were studied using 60 informative F-9 recombinant inbed lines (RILs) derived from a cross between cultivated lettuce (Lactuca sativa cv. Salinas) and wild lettuce (L. serriola acc. UC96US23). Quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for shelf life co-located most closely with those for leaf biophysical properties such as plasticity, elasticity, and breakstrength, suggesting that these are appropriate targets for molecular breeding for improved shelf life. Significant correlations were found between shelf life and leaf size, leaf weight, leaf chlorophyll content, leaf stomatal index, and epidermal cell number per leaf, indicating that these pre-harvest leaf development traits confer post-harvest properties. By studying the population in two contrasting environments in northern and southern Europe, the genotype by environment interaction effects of the QTLs relevant to leaf development and shelf life were assessed. In total, 107 QTLs, distributed on all nine linkage groups, were detected from the 29 traits. Only five QTLs were common in both environments. Several areas where many QTLs co-located (hotspots) on the genome were identified, with relatively little overlap between developmental hotspots and those relating to shelf life. However, QTLs for leaf biophysical properties (breakstrength, plasticity, and elasticity) and cell area correlated well with shelf life, confirming that the ideal ideotype lettuce should have small cells with strong cell walls. The identification of QTLs for leaf development, strength, and longevity will lead to a better understanding of processability at a genetic and cellular level, and allow the improvement of salad leaf quality through marker-assisted breeding.

A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: <2°C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2–3°C, and >3°C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50°N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3°C than for <2°C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of ≈1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for >3°C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant.

Summer drought in northern midlatitudes in a time-dependent CO2 climate experiment

A time-dependent climate-change experiment with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model has been used to study changes in the occurrence of drought in summer in southern Europe and central North America. In both regions, precipitation and soil moisture are reduced in a climate of greater atmospheric carbon dioxide. A detailed investigation of the hydrology of the model shows that the drying of the soil comes about through an increase in evaporation in winter and spring, caused by higher temperatures and reduced snow cover, and a decrease in the net input of water in summer. Evaporation is reduced in summer because of the drier soil, but the reduction in precipitation is larger. Three extreme statistics are used to define drought, namely the frequency of low summer precipitation, the occurrence of long dry spells, and the probability of dry soil. The last of these is arguably of the greatest practical importance, but since it is based on soil moisture, of which there are very few observations, the authors’ simulation of it has the least confidence. Furthermore, long time series for daily observed precipitation are not readily available from a sufficient number of stations to enable a thorough evaluation of the model simulation, especially for the frequency of long dry spells, and this increases the systematic uncertainty of the model predictions. All three drought statistics show marked increases owing to the sensitivity of extreme statistics to changes in their distributions. However, the greater likelihood of long dry spells is caused by a tendency in the character of daily rainfall toward fewer events, rather than by the reduction in mean precipitation. The results should not be taken as firm predictions because extreme statistics for small regions cannot be calculated reliably from the output of the current generation of GCMs, but they point to the possibility of large increases in the severity of drought conditions as a consequence of climate change caused by increased CO2.