Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

The use of phase in complex spectrum subtraction for robust speech recognition

In this paper we propose a new method for utilising phase information by complementing it with traditional magnitude-only spectral subtraction speech enhancement through Complex Spectrum Subtraction (CSS). The proposed approach has the following advantages over traditional magnitude-only spectral subtraction: (a) it introduces complementary information to the enhancement algorithm; (b) it reduces the total number of algorithmic parameters, and; (c) is designed for improving clean speech magnitude spectra and is therefore suitable for both automatic speech recognition (ASR) and speech perception applications. Oracle-based ASR experiments verify this approach, showing an average of 20% relative word accuracy improvements when accurate estimates of the phase spectrum are available. Based on sinusoidal analysis and assuming stationarity between observations (which is shown to be better approximated as the frame rate is increased), this paper also proposes a novel method for acquiring the phase information called Phase Estimation via Delay Projection (PEDEP). Further oracle ASR experiments validate the potential for the proposed PEDEP technique in ideal conditions. Realistic implementation of CSS with PEDEP shows performance comparable to state of the art spectral subtraction techniques in a range of 15-20 dB signal-to-noise ratio environments. These results clearly demonstrate the potential for using phase spectra in spectral subtractive enhancement applications, and at the same time highlight the need for deriving more accurate phase estimates in a wider range of noise conditions.

Probability and statistics

Now in its sixth edition, the Traffic Engineering Handbook continues to be a must have publication in the transportation industry, as it has been for the past 60 years. The new edition provides updated information for people entering the practice and for those already practicing. The handbook is a convenient desk reference, as well as an all in one source of principles and proven techniques in traffic engineering. Most chapters are presented in a new format, which divides the chapters into four areas-basics, current practice, emerging trends and information sources. Chapter topics include road users, vehicle characteristics, statistics, planning for operations, communications, safety, regulations, traffic calming, access management, geometrics, signs and markings, signals, parking, traffic demand, maintenance and studies. In addition, as the focus in transportation has shifted from project based to operations based, two new chapters have been added-"Planning for Operations" and "Managing Traffic Demand to Address Congestion: Providing Travelers with Choices." The Traffic Engineering Handbook continues to be one of the primary reference sources for study to become a certified Professional Traffic Operations Engineer™. Chapters are authored by notable and experienced authors, and reviewed and edited by a distinguished panel of traffic engineering experts.

Robust multidisciplinary design optimisation using CFD and advanced evolutionary algorithms

Computation Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has become an important tool in optimization and has seen successful in many real world applications. Most important among these is in the optimisation of aerodynamic surfaces which has become Multi-Objective (MO) and Multidisciplinary (MDO) in nature. Most of these have been carried out for a given set of input parameters such as free stream Mach number and angle of attack. One cannot ignore the fact that in aerospace engineering one frequently deals with situations where the design input parameters and flight/flow conditions have some amount of uncertainty attached to them. When the optimisation is carried out for fixed values of design variables and parameters however, one arrives at an optimised solution that results in good performance at design condition but poor drag or lift to drag ratio at slightly off-design conditions. The challenge is still to develop a robust design that accounts for uncertainty in the design in aerospace applications. In this paper this issue is taken up and an attempt is made to prevent the fluctuation of objective performance by using robust design technique or Uncertainty.

An innovative robust reactive surgery assignment model

Online scheduling in the Operating Theatre Department is a dynamic process that deals with both elective and emergency patients. Each business day begins with an elective schedule determined in advance based on a mastery surgery schedule. Throughout the course of the day however, disruptions to this baseline schedule occur due to variations in treatment time, emergency arrivals, equipment failure and resource unavailability. An innovative robust reactive surgery assignment model is developed for the operating theatre department. Following the completion of each surgery, the schedule is re-solved taking into account any disruptions in order to minimise cancellations of pre-planned patients and maximise throughput of emergency cases. The single theatre case is solved and future work on the computationally more complex multiple theatre case under resource constraints is discussed.

A robust structure and motion replacement for bundle adjustment

This paper demonstrates the application of a robust form of pose estimation and scene reconstruction using data from camera images. We demonstrate results that suggest the ability of the algorithm to rival methods of RANSAC based pose estimation polished by bundle adjustment in terms of solution robustness, speed and accuracy, even when given poor initialisations. Our simulated results show the behaviour of the algorithm in a number of novel simulated scenarios reflective of real world cases that show the ability of the algorithm to handle large observation noise and difficult reconstruction scenes. These results have a number of implications for the vision and robotics community, and show that the application of visual motion estimation on robotic platforms in an online fashion is approaching real-world feasibility.

A simple orientation robust transmit polarization signalling scheme

A special transmit polarization signalling scheme is presented to alleviate the power reduction as a result of polarization mismatch from random antenna orientations. This is particularly useful for hand held mobile terminals typically equipped with only a single linearly polarized antenna, since the average signal power is desensitized against receiver orientations. Numerical simulations also show adequate robustness against incorrect channel estimations.

Robust tracking control of autonomous underwater vehicles in the presence of disturbance inputs

An autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) is expected to operate in an ocean in the presence of poorly known disturbance forces and moments. The uncertainties of the environment makes it difficult to apply open-loop control scheme for the motion planning of the vehicle. The objective of this paper is to develop a robust feedback trajectory tracking control scheme for an AUV that can track a prescribed trajectory amidst such disturbances. We solve a general problem of feedback trajectory tracking of an AUV in SE(3). The feedback control scheme is derived using Lyapunov-type analysis. The results obtained from numerical simulations confirm the asymptotic tracking properties of the feedback control law. We apply the feedback control scheme to different mission scenarios, with the disturbances being initial errors in the state of the AUV.

Noise robust voice activity detection using normal probability testing and time-domain histogram analysis

This paper presents a method of voice activity detection (VAD) suitable for high noise scenarios, based on the fusion of two complementary systems. The first system uses a proposed non-Gaussianity score (NGS) feature based on normal probability testing. The second system employs a histogram distance score (HDS) feature that detects changes in the signal through conducting a template-based similarity measure between adjacent frames. The decision outputs by the two systems are then merged using an open-by-reconstruction fusion stage. Accuracy of the proposed method was compared to several baseline VAD methods on a database created using real recordings of a variety of high-noise environments.

Noise robust voice activity detection using features extracted from the time-domain autocorrelation function

This paper presents a method of voice activity detection (VAD) for high noise scenarios, using a noise robust voiced speech detection feature. The developed method is based on the fusion of two systems. The first system utilises the maximum peak of the normalised time-domain autocorrelation function (MaxPeak). The second zone system uses a novel combination of cross-correlation and zero-crossing rate of the normalised autocorrelation to approximate a measure of signal pitch and periodicity (CrossCorr) that is hypothesised to be noise robust. The score outputs by the two systems are then merged using weighted sum fusion to create the proposed autocorrelation zero-crossing rate (AZR) VAD. Accuracy of AZR was compared to state of the art and standardised VAD methods and was shown to outperform the best performing system with an average relative improvement of 24.8% in half-total error rate (HTER) on the QUT-NOISE-TIMIT database created using real recordings from high-noise environments.

Toward a more robust facial expression recognition in occluded images using randomly sampled Gabor based templates

Occlusion is a big challenge for facial expression recognition (FER) in real-world situations. Previous FER efforts to address occlusion suffer from loss of appearance features and are largely limited to a few occlusion types and single testing strategy. This paper presents a robust approach for FER in occluded images and addresses these issues. A set of Gabor based templates is extracted from images in the gallery using a Monte Carlo algorithm. These templates are converted into distance features using template matching. The resulting feature vectors are robust to occlusion. Occluded eyes and mouth regions and randomly places occlusion patches are used for testing. Two testing strategies analyze the effects of these occlusions on the overall recognition performance as well as each facial expression. Experimental results on the Cohn-Kanade database confirm the high robustness of our approach and provide useful insights about the effects of occlusion on FER. Performance is also compared with previous approaches.

Application of higher order statistics/spectra in biomedical signals : a review

For many decades correlation and power spectrum have been primary tools for digital signal processing applications in the biomedical area. The information contained in the power spectrum is essentially that of the autocorrelation sequence; which is sufficient for complete statistical descriptions of Gaussian signals of known means. However, there are practical situations where one needs to look beyond autocorrelation of a signal to extract information regarding deviation from Gaussianity and the presence of phase relations. Higher order spectra, also known as polyspectra, are spectral representations of higher order statistics, i.e. moments and cumulants of third order and beyond. HOS (higher order statistics or higher order spectra) can detect deviations from linearity, stationarity or Gaussianity in the signal. Most of the biomedical signals are non-linear, non-stationary and non-Gaussian in nature and therefore it can be more advantageous to analyze them with HOS compared to the use of second order correlations and power spectra. In this paper we have discussed the application of HOS for different bio-signals. HOS methods of analysis are explained using a typical heart rate variability (HRV) signal and applications to other signals are reviewed.