Risk of Giardia infection for drinking water and bathing in a peri-urban area in Sao Paulo, Brazil

A high incidence of waterborne diseases is observed worldwide and in order to address contamination problems prior to an outbreak, quantitative microbial risk assessment is a useful tool for estimating the risk of infection. The objective of this paper was to assess the probability of Giardia infection from consuming water from shallow wells in a peri-urban area. Giardia has been described as an important waterborne pathogen and reported in several water sources, including ground waters. Sixteen water samples were collected and examined according to the US EPA (1623, 2005). A Monte Carlo method was used to address the potential risk as described by the exponential dose response model. Giardia cysts occurred in 62.5% of the samples (0.1-36.1 cysts/l). A median risk of 10-1 for the population was estimated and the adult ingestion was the highest risk driver. This study illustrates the vulnerability of shallow well water supply systems in peri-urban areas.

Flood Risk Management In Small Urban River Using A Sustainable Urban Drainage System: Wortley Beck, Leeds, Uk

In the UK, urban river basins are particularly vulnerable to flash floods due to short and intense rainfall. This paper presents potential flood resilience approaches for the highly urbanised Wortley Beck river basin, south west of the Leeds city centre. The reach of Wortley Beck is approximately 6km long with contributing catchment area of 30km2 that drain into the River Aire. Lower Wortley has experienced regular flooding over the last few years from a range of sources, including Wortley Beck and surface and ground water, that affects properties both upstream and downstream of Farnley Lake as well as Wortley Ring Road. This has serious implications for society, the environment and economy activity in the City of Leeds. The first stage of the study involves systematically incorporating Wortley Beck’s land scape features on an Arc-GIS platform to identify existing green features in the region. This process also enables the exploration of potential blue green features: green spaces, green roofs, water retention ponds and swales at appropriate locations and connect them with existing green corridors to maximize their productivity. The next stage is involved in developing a detailed 2D urban flood inundation model for the Wortley Beck region using the CityCat model. CityCat is capable to model the effects of permeable/impermeable ground surfaces and buildings/roofs to generate flood depth and velocity maps at 1m caused by design storm events. The final stage of the study is involved in simulation of range of rainfall and flood event scenarios through CityCat model with different blue green features. Installation of other hard engineering individual property protection measures through water butts and flood walls are also incorporated in the CityCat model. This enables an integrated sustainable flood resilience strategy for this region.

Does The Risk Of Groundwater Depletion Drive Tube-Well Technology Adoption: A Case Of Pakistan

We employ a moment-based approach to empirically analyse farmer’s decisions about adoption of tube-well technology under depleting groundwater resources using a farm level data from 200 farming households in the Punjab province, Pakistan. The results indicate that the higher the expected profit the greater the probability of adoption. Similarly, with increasing variance the probability of adopting tube-well increases significantly indicating that farmers choose to adopt tube-well technology in order to hedge against production risks. Statistical non-significant the third moment i.e., skewness indicates that farmer generally do not consider downside yield risk when decide to adopt tube-well technology whereas highly significant fourth moment (kurtosis) employ that probability of adoption decreases as a result of extreme events in profit distribution. In addition, we show that land tenureship and three other exogenous variables, i.e., extension services, access to different sources of information and off-farm income play a significant role in the adoption process.

The role of consumer's risk aversion on price rigidity

This paper aims at contributing to the research agenda on the sources of price stickiness, showing that the adoption of nominal price rigidity may be an optimal firms' reaction to the consumers' behavior, even if firms have no adjustment costs. With regular broadly accepted assumptions on economic agents behavior, we show that firms' competition can lead to the adoption of sticky prices as an (sub-game perfect) equilibrium strategy. We introduce the concept of a consumption centers model economy in which there are several complete markets. Moreover, we weaken some traditional assumptions used in standard monetary policy models, by assuming that households have imperfect information about the ineflicient time-varying cost shocks faced by the firms, e.g. the ones regarding to inefficient equilibrium output leveIs under fiexible prices. Moreover, the timing of events are assumed in such a way that, at every period, consumers have access to the actual prices prevailing in the market only after choosing a particular consumption center. Since such choices under uncertainty may decrease the expected utilities of risk averse consumers, competitive firms adopt some degree of price stickiness in order to minimize the price uncertainty and fi attract more customers fi.'

A systematic component of the jump-risk premium in an AJD model

We develop an affine jump diffusion (AJD) model with the jump-risk premium being determined by both idiosyncratic and systematic sources of risk. While we maintain the classical affine setting of the model, we add a finite set of new state variables that affect the paths of the primitive, under both the actual and the risk-neutral measure, by being related to the primitive's jump process. Those new variables are assumed to be commom to all the primitives. We present simulations to ensure that the model generates the volatility smile and compute the "discounted conditional characteristic function'' transform that permits the pricing of a wide range of derivatives.

Drinking water as a risk factor to poultry health

In the poultry industry, the use of water with adequate physical, chemical and microbiological quality it is of fundamental importance. Since many birds have access to the same water source, quality problems will affect a great number of animals. The drinking water plays an important role in the transmission of some bacterial, viral and protozoan diseases that are among the most common poultry diseases. Important factors to prevent waterborne diseases in broiler production are the protection of supply sources, water disinfection and the quality control of microbiological, chemical and physical characteristics. Water is an essential nutrient for birds and therefore quality preservation is fundamental for good herd performance. The farmer may prevent many diseases in bird flocks by controlling the quality of the ingested water, will certainly result in decreased costs and increased profit, two essential aims of animal production nowadays.

Prevalence and risk factors for Toxoplasma gondii infection in certified and non-certified pig breeding farms in the Toledo microregion, PR, Brazil

A infecção pelo Toxoplasma gondii tem sido diagnosticada em suínos em todo o mundo. Perdas econômicas geralmente estão relacionadas a distúrbios reprodutivos. A infecção pelo Toxoplasma tem também importância em saúde pública, já que cistos teciduais do parasito podem persistir na carne e subprodutos oriundos de suínos, que servirão de fontes de infecção para o ser humano. O objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar a frequência e os fatores de risco associados à infecção pelo Toxoplasma em granjas de reprodutores suídeos certificados ou não da microrregião de Toledo, no Paraná, que inclui os municípios de Toledo, Nova Santa Rosa, São José das Palmeiras e São Pedro do Iguaçú. A frequência relativa de infecção foi 13,4%, sem diferença com o tipo de granja. A análise de regressão logística demonstrou os seguintes fatores associados à infecção: não utilização de funcionários separados por área da granja, o acesso de animais ao cocho de ração e ao reservatório de água, a não utilização de tampa neste reservatório, a não prevenção de roedores, o número e peso médio de leitões ao desmame por porca.

PATHOGENIC OR POTENTIALLY PATHOGENIC BACTERIA AS CONTAMINANTS OF FRESH-WATER FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES IN ARARAQUARA, BRAZIL

The microbiological quality of various fresh waters in the Araraquara region, state of São Paulo, Brazil was investigated. Ninety-nine water samples were taken from rivers, reservoirs, artesian and non-artesian wells, springs and tap waters, and these waters were analysed using: plate counts of heterotrophic microorganisms (per 1 ml); Most Probable Number (MPN) of fecal coliforms and E. coli (per 100 ml); tests for presence of Salmonella, Shigella, Yersinia, the E. coli pathogens of classes EPEC, ETEC and EIEC and Mycobacterium, Shigella, Yersinia and enteroinvasive E. coli (EIEC) were not isolated. The other types of microorganisms were isolated in varying proportions. We conclude that the waters investigated represent a potential microbiological health risk.

Prevalence and risk factors for human toxoplasmosis in a rural community

Toxoplasma gondii infection may lead to important pathological questions, especially in rural areas, where several sources of infection exist. Therefore, it is important to determine risk factors in order to establish adequate prophylactic measures. The present study aimed to assess the prevalence and risk factors involved in human toxoplasmosis infection in a rural community, in Eldorado, Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil. This community was composed of 185 farms - with 671 inhabitants - from which 20 were randomly chosen. In these farms, blood samples were collected from rural workers, who also answered a risk factor questionnaire. Serum samples were analyzed by means of direct agglutination test for the detection of anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies. From 73 samples collected, 79.45% were positive. None of the studied variables was significantly associated with the prevalence of the infection. However, among the individuals who reported eyesight impairments, 94.4% had anti-T. gondii antibodies, compared with 74.0% who did not report eyesight changes (p = 0.0594). Moreover, most individuals in the study (68.20%) were older than 18 years and presented 84.44% positivity, compared with 66.67% of positive individuals younger than 18 years old. We were able to conclude that a high prevalence of antibodies did not imply significant associations with the risk factors studied.

A Meta-Analysis of Predation Risk Effects on Pollinator Behaviour

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Risk of peritonitis during peritoneal dialysis in carriers of Staphylococcus aureus and coagulase-negative staphylococci

The presence of Staphylococcus aureus in the nasal cavities and pericatheter skin of peritoneal dialysis patients put them at high risk of developing peritonitis. However, it is not clear whether the presence of coagulase-negative staphylococci (CNS) in the nasal passages and skin of patients is related to subsequent occurrence of peritoneal infection. The aim of the present study was to verify the relationship between endogenous sources of S. aureus and CNS and occurrence of peritonitis in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis. Thirty-two patients on peritoneal hemodialysis were observed for 18 months. Staphylococcus species present in their nasal passage, pericatheter skin and peritoneal effluent were identified and compared based on drug susceptibility tests and dendrograms, which were drawn to better visualize the similarity among strains from extraperitoneal sites as well as their involvement in the causes of infection. Out of 288 Staphylococcus strains isolated, 155 (53.8%) were detected in the nasal cavity, 122 (42.4%) on the skin, and 11 (3.8%) in the peritoneal effluent of patients who developed peritonitis during the study. The most frequent Staphylococcus species were CNS (78.1%), compared with S. aureus (21.9%). Among CNS, S. epidermidis was predominant (64.4%), followed by S. warneri (15.1%), S. haemolyticus (10.7%), and other species (9.8%). Seven (64%) out of 11 cases of peritonitis analyzed presented similar strains. The same strain was isolated from different sites in two (66%) out of three S. aureus infection cases. In the six cases of S. epidermidis peritonitis, the species that caused infection was also found in the normal flora. From these, two cases (33%) presented highly similar strains and in three cases (50%), it was difficult to group strains as to similarity. Patients colonized with multidrug-resistant S. epidermidis strains were more predisposed to infection. Results demonstrated that an endogenous source of S. epidermidis could cause peritonitis in peritoneal dialysis patients, similarly to what has been observed with S. aureus.

Risk-assessment algorithm and recommendations for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in medical patients

The risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in medical patients is high, but risk assessment is rarely performed because there is not yet a good method to identify candidates for prophylaxis. Purpose: To perform a systematic review about VTE risk factors (RFs) in hospitalized medical patients and generate recommendations (RECs) for prophylaxis that can be implemented into practice. Data sources: A multidisciplinary group of experts from 12 Brazilian Medical Societies searched MEDLINE, Cochrane, and LILACS. Study selection: Two experts independently classified the evidence for each RF by its scientific quality in a standardized manner. A risk-assessment algorithm was created based on the results of the review. Data synthesis: Several VTE RFs have enough evidence to support RECs for prophylaxis in hospitalized medical patients (eg, increasing age, heart failure, and stroke). Other factors are considered adjuncts of risk (eg, varices, obesity, and infections). According to the algorithm, hospitalized medical patients ≥40 years-old with decreased mobility, and ≥1 RFs should receive chemoprophylaxis with heparin, provided they don't have contraindications. High prophylactic doses of unfractionated heparin or low-molecular-weight-heparin must be administered and maintained for 6-14 days. Conclusions: A multidisciplinary group generated evidence-based RECs and an easy-to-use algorithm to facilitate VTE prophylaxis in medical patients. © 2007 Rocha et al, publisher and licensee Dove Medical Press Ltd.

Renewable energy sources in Latin America and the Caribbean: situation and policy proposals

Includes bibliography

Bovine cysticercosis in slaughtered cattle as an indicator of Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) and epidemiological risk factors

This study focused on estimating the economic losses resulting from cysticercosis at beef cattle farms that supply an export slaughterhouse located in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and to identify the epidemiological risks factors involved in the disease to ascertain if these farms adopt Good Agricultural Practices (GAP). To this, we used data recorded in 2012 by Brazil's Federal Inspection Service (SIP) on the daily occurrence of the disease, according to the farm from which the animals originated. In addition, the associated risk factors were determined based on a case-control study at 48 farms. Cysticercosis was detected in 2.26% (95% CI 2.2-2.33) of the 190,903 bovines supplied by 556 farms in the following four states: 2.92% (95% CI 2.83-3.03) in Sao Paulo, 1.81% (95% CI 1.71-1.93) in Minas Gerais, 0.71% (95% CI 0.6-0.82) in Goias and 1.11% (95% CI 0.79-1.57) in Mato Grosso do Sul, with significant differences in the epidemiological indices of these states. Cysticercosis was detected at 58.45% (95% CI 54.36-62.55) of the farms of this study, representing estimated economic losses of US$312,194.52 for the farmers. Lower prevalence of this disease were found at the farms qualified for exports to the European Union, indicating a statistically significant difference from those not qualified to export to Europe. The access of cattle to non-controlled water sources, as well as sport fishing activities near the farms, was identified as risk factors. Cysticercosis causes considerable losses in Brazil's beef supply chain, with lower prevalence appearing only at farms qualified to export to the European Union. As for the access of cattle to non-controlled water sources, this is an indication that GAP are not implemented by some farms, demonstrating the violation of international agreements by the industry and the farms. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reactive power planning under conditional-value-at-risk assessment using chance-constrained optimisation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)