Design thinking using a collaborative model for skin cancer prevention

Physical activity is well recognised as a means to reduce cancer risk; however, outdoor activity can increase sun exposure and consequential skin cancer risk. It is proposed, one of the key potential solutions to promote active lifestyles whilst enhancing protection against skin cancer is design resolution for active apparel that considers Australia’s sub-tropical climate whilst maintaining comfort, aesthetic appeal and performance. Using a design thinking approach, facilitated through collaboration between an NGO and a university, student designers were tasked with developing apparel prototypes to explore this challenge. Through practical ideation of problems, potential design solutions were developed within a modest NGO budget and adherence to specific brand guidelines. This project is novel as it demonstrates a low cost yet effective way of collaboratively creating a product to meet multiple needs, rather than reactively assessing already manufactured sun protection products for endorsement. It is a nimble and unique stepping stone in integrating sun safety considerations into clothing that is appealing to the population and creating cross-industry understandings of how design can better contribute to human health and wellbeing. Outcomes to be shared include empirical insights for updating sun safe clothing guidelines, issues around the aesthetic nature of sun safe apparel, and the role of design education for sun safety.

Can we safely deform a plate to fit every bone? Population-based fit assessment and finite element deformation of a distal tibial plate

Anatomically precontoured plates are commonly used to treat periarticular fractures. A well-fitting plate can be used as a tool for anatomical reduction of the fractured bone. Recent studies highlighted that some plates fit poorly for many patients due to considerable shape variations between bones of the same anatomical site. While it is impossible to design one shape that fits all, it is also burdensome for the manufacturers and hospitals to produce, store and manage multiple plate shapes without the certainty of utilization by a patient population. In this study, we investigated the number of shapes required for maximum fit within a given dataset, and if they could be obtained by manually deforming the original plate. A distal medial tibial plate was automatically positioned on 45 individual tibiae, and the optimal deformation was determined iteratively using finite element analysis simulation. Within the studied dataset, we found that: (i) 89% fit could be achieved with four shapes, (ii) 100% fit was impossible through mechanical deformation, and (iii) the deformations required to obtain the four plate shapes were safe for the stainless steel plate for further clinical use. The proposed framework is easily transferable to other orthopaedic plates.

Replication of the association of common rs9939609 variant of FTO with increased BMI in an Australian adult twin population but no evidence for gene by environment (G x E) interaction

OBJECTIVE: To further investigate a common variant (rs9939609) in the fat mass- and obesity-associated gene (FTO), which recent genome-wide association studies have shown to be associated with body mass index (BMI) and obesity. DESIGN: We examined the effect of this FTO variant on BMI in 3353 Australian adult male and female twins. RESULTS: The minor A allele of rs9939609 was associated with an increased BMI (P=0.0007). Each additional copy of the A allele was associated with a mean BMI increase of approximately 1.04 kg/m(2) (approximately 3.71 kg). Using variance components decomposition, we estimate that this single-nucleotide polymorphism accounts for approximately 3% of the genetic variance in BMI in our sample (approximately 2% of the total variance). By comparing intrapair variances of monozygotic twins of different genotypes we were able to perform a direct test of gene by environment (G x E) interaction in both sexes and gene by parity (G x P) interaction in women, but no evidence was found for either. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to supporting earlier findings that the rs9939609 variant in the FTO gene is associated with an increased BMI, our results indicate that the associated genetic effect does not interact with environment or parity.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

The study of genetic diversity and population structure of the Korean fleshy shrimp, Fenneropenaeus chinensis, using newly developed microsatellite markers

The fleshy shrimp, Fenneropenaeus chinensis, is the family of Penaeidae and one of the most economically important marine culture species in Korea. However, its genetic characteristics have never been studied. In this study, a total of 240 wild F. chinensis individuals were collected from four locations as follows: Narodo (NRD, n = 60), Beopseongpo (BSP, n = 60), Chaesukpo (CSP, n = 60), and Cheonsuman (CSM, n = 60). Genetic variability and the relationships among four wild F. chinensis populations were analyzed using 13 newly developed microsatellite loci. Relatively high levels of genetic variability (mean allelic richness = 16.87; mean heterozygosity = 0.845) were found among localities. Among the 52 population loci, 13 showed significant deviation from the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. Neighbor-joining, principal coordinate, and molecular variance analyses revealed the presence of three subpopulations (NRD, CSM, BSP and CSP), which was consistent with clustering based on genetic distance. The mean observed heterozygosity values of the NRD, CSM, BSP, and CSP populations were 0.724, 0.821, 0.814, and 0.785 over all loci, respectively. These genetic variability and differentiation results of the four wild populations can be applied for future genetic improvement using selective breeding and to design suitable management guidelines for Korean F. chinensis culture.

Ecology, population genetics and conservation of the African violet

The ongoing rapid fragmentation of tropical forests is a major threat to global biodiversity. This is because many of the tropical forests are so-called biodiversity 'hotspots', areas that host exceptional species richness and concentrations of endemic species. Forest fragmentation has negative ecological and genetic consequences for plant survival. Proposed reasons for plant species' loss in forest fragments are, e.g., abiotic edge effects, altered species interactions, increased genetic drift, and inbreeding depression. To be able to conserve plants in forest fragments, the ecological and genetic processes that threaten the species have to be understood. That is possible only after obtaining adequate information on their biology, including taxonomy, life history, reproduction, and spatial and genetic structure of the populations. In this research, I focused on the African violet (genus Saintpaulia), a little-studied conservation flagship from the Eastern Arc Mountains and Coastal Forests hotspot of Tanzania and Kenya. The main objective of the research was to increase understanding of the life history, ecology and population genetics of Saintpaulia that is needed for the design of appropriate conservation measures. A further aim was to provide population-level insights into the difficult taxonomy of Saintpaulia. Ecological field work was conducted in a relatively little fragmented protected forest in the Amani Nature Reserve in the East Usambara Mountains, in northeastern Tanzania, complemented by population genetic laboratory work and ecological experiments in Helsinki, Finland. All components of the research were conducted with Saintpaulia ionantha ssp. grotei, which forms a taxonomically controversial population complex in the study area. My results suggest that Saintpaulia has good reproductive performance in forests with low disturbance levels in the East Usambara Mountains. Another important finding was that seed production depends on sufficient pollinator service. The availability of pollinators should thus be considered in the in situ management of threatened populations. Dynamic population stage structures were observed suggesting that the studied populations are demographically viable. High mortality of seedlings and juveniles was observed during the dry season but this was compensated by ample recruitment of new seedlings after the rainy season. Reduced tree canopy closure and substrate quality are likely to exacerbate seedling and juvenile mortality, and, therefore, forest fragmentation and disturbance are serious threats to the regeneration of Saintpaulia. Restoration of sufficient shade to enhance seedling establishment is an important conservation measure in populations located in disturbed habitats. Long-term demographic monitoring, which enables the forecasting of a population s future, is also recommended in disturbed habitats. High genetic diversities were observed in the populations, which suggest that they possess the variation that is needed for evolutionary responses in a changing environment. Thus, genetic management of the studied populations does not seem necessary as long as the habitats remain favourable for Saintpaulia. The observed high levels of inbreeding in some of the populations, and the reduced fitness of the inbred progeny compared to the outbred progeny, as revealed by the hand-pollination experiment, indicate that inbreeding and inbreeding depression are potential mechanisms contributing to the extinction of Saintpaulia populations. The relatively weak genetic divergence of the three different morphotypes of Saintpaulia ionantha ssp. grotei lend support to the hypothesis that the populations in the Usambara/lowlands region represent a segregating metapopulation (or metapopulations), where subpopulations are adapting to their particular environments. The partial genetic and phenological integrity, and the distinct trailing habit of the morphotype 'grotei' would, however, justify its placement in a taxonomic rank of its own, perhaps in a subspecific rank.

Randomised Evaluation of New Technologies within the Population‐Based Cervical Cancer Screening Programme in Finland: Cross‐Sectional Performance and Validity

A randomised and population-based screening design with new technologies has been applied to the organised cervical cancer screening programme in Finland. In this experiment the women invited to routine five-yearly screening are individually randomised to be screened with automation-assisted cytology, human papillomavirus (HPV) test or conventional cytology. By using the randomised design, the ultimate aim is to assess and compare the long-term outcomes of the different screening regimens. The primary aim of the current study was to evaluate, based on the material collected during the implementation phase of the Finnish randomised screening experiment, the cross-sectional performance and validity of automation-assisted cytology (Papnet system) and primary HPV DNA testing (Hybrid Capture II assay for 13 oncogenic HPV types) within service screening, in comparison to conventional cytology. The parameters of interest were test positivity rate, histological detection rate, relative sensitivity, relative specificity and positive predictive value. Also, the effect of variation in performance by screening laboratory on age-adjusted cervical cancer incidence was assessed. Based on the cross-sectional results, almost no differences were observed in the performance of conventional and automation-assisted screening. Instead, primary HPV screening found 58% (95% confidence interval 19-109%) more cervical lesions than conventional screening. However, this was mainly due to overrepresentation of mild- and moderate-grade lesions and, thus, is likely to result in overtreatment since a great deal of these lesions would never progress to invasive cancer. Primary screening with an HPV DNA test alone caused substantial loss in specificity in comparison to cytological screening. With the use of cytology triage test, the specificity of HPV screening improved close to the level of conventional cytology. The specificity of primary HPV screening was also increased by increasing the test positivity cutoff from the level recommended for clinical use, but the increase was more modest than the one gained with the use of cytology triage. The performance of the cervical cancer screening programme varied widely between the screening laboratories, but the variation in overall programme effectiveness between respective populations was more marginal from the very beginning of the organised screening activity. Thus, conclusive interpretations on the quality or success of screening should not be based on performance parameters only. In the evaluation of cervical cancer screening the outcome should be selected as closely as possible to the true measure of programme effectiveness, which is the number of invasive cervical cancers and subsequent deaths prevented in the target population. The evaluation of benefits and adverse effects of each new suggested screening technology should be performed before the technology becomes an accepted routine in the existing screening programme. At best, the evaluation is performed randomised, within the population and screening programme in question, which makes the results directly applicable to routine use.

Reflections from East Asia's ageing population: An interaction designers' challenge

As Asia experiences the demographic imbalance between working and ageing populations, the need for attention in this area is highlighted. The shift of a country's age structure that results from people having small families and living long lives, where previously they had large families and lived short lives, results in more workers and fewer dependents creating economic growth, known as the demographic dividend. However for a generation after this bulge and dividend, a disproportionate number of older people must be supported by a smaller working population, a current concern in Asia with its rapidly growing number of older adults. This extended abstract draws practical and unique insights from three of the oldest and richest nations in Asia - Japan, South Korea and China, on the perspective of interactive technology design for older adults. ICT has powerful potential to ameliorate the imbalance in the population demographic through its potential to leverage various kinds of support. As HCI researchers, this is a challenge we embrace; a challenge for the ageing society of unique individuals to exploit the technologies that they have helped to create. The paper draws lessons from key sample studies, one from each country, which aimed to understand their ageing population. The insights for interaction designers are presented in the form of a practical set of reflections to guide the authors, who are in the early stages of research on technology design for older adults.

Design of speaker identification schemes for large number of speakers (A)

Design of speaker identification schemes for a small number of speakers (around 10) with a high degree of accuracy in controlled environment is a practical proposition today. When the number of speakers is large (say 50–100), many of these schemes cannot be directly extended, as both recognition error and computation time increase monotonically with population size. The feature selection problem is also complex for such schemes. Though there were earlier attempts to rank order features based on statistical distance measures, it has been observed only recently that the best two independent measurements are not the same as the combination in two's for pattern classification. We propose here a systematic approach to the problem using the decision tree or hierarchical classifier with the following objectives: (1) Design of optimal policy at each node of the tree given the tree structure i.e., the tree skeleton and the features to be used at each node. (2) Determination of the optimal feature measurement and decision policy given only the tree skeleton. Applicability of optimization procedures such as dynamic programming in the design of such trees is studied. The experimental results deal with the design of a 50 speaker identification scheme based on this approach.

Optimal management of beaver population using a reduced-order distributed parameter model and single network adaptive critics

Beavers are often found to be in conflict with human interests by creating nuisances like building dams on flowing water (leading to flooding), blocking irrigation canals, cutting down timbers, etc. At the same time they contribute to raising water tables, increased vegetation, etc. Consequently, maintaining an optimal beaver population is beneficial. Because of their diffusion externality (due to migratory nature), strategies based on lumped parameter models are often ineffective. Using a distributed parameter model for beaver population that accounts for their spatial and temporal behavior, an optimal control (trapping) strategy is presented in this paper that leads to a desired distribution of the animal density in a region in the long run. The optimal control solution presented, imbeds the solution for a large number of initial conditions (i.e., it has a feedback form), which is otherwise nontrivial to obtain. The solution obtained can be used in real-time by a nonexpert in control theory since it involves only using the neural networks trained offline. Proper orthogonal decomposition-based basis function design followed by their use in a Galerkin projection has been incorporated in the solution process as a model reduction technique. Optimal solutions are obtained through a "single network adaptive critic" (SNAC) neural-network architecture.

A finite population model of mlecular evolution: theory and computation

This article is concerned with the evolution of haploid organisms that reproduce asexually. In a seminal piece of work, Eigen and coauthors proposed the quasispecies model in an attempt to understand such an evolutionary process. Their work has impacted antiviral treatment and vaccine design strategies. Yet, predictions of the quasispecies model are at best viewed as a guideline, primarily because it assumes an infinite population size, whereas realistic population sizes can be quite small. In this paper we consider a population genetics-based model aimed at understanding the evolution of such organisms with finite population sizes and present a rigorous study of the convergence and computational issues that arise therein. Our first result is structural and shows that, at any time during the evolution, as the population size tends to infinity, the distribution of genomes predicted by our model converges to that predicted by the quasispecies model. This justifies the continued use of the quasispecies model to derive guidelines for intervention. While the stationary state in the quasispecies model is readily obtained, due to the explosion of the state space in our model, exact computations are prohibitive. Our second set of results are computational in nature and address this issue. We derive conditions on the parameters of evolution under which our stochastic model mixes rapidly. Further, for a class of widely used fitness landscapes we give a fast deterministic algorithm which computes the stationary distribution of our model. These computational tools are expected to serve as a framework for the modeling of strategies for the deployment of mutagenic drugs.

Unemployment rates and population changes in Spain

Published as an article in: Journal of Applied Economics, 2004, vol. VII, pages 47-76.