In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

Scoring rules and abnormally low bids criteria in construction tenders: A taxonomic review

In the global construction context, the Best Value or Most Economically Advantageous Tender is becoming a widespread approach for contractor selection, as an alternative to other traditional awarding criteria such as the Lowest Price. In these multi-attribute tenders, the owner or auctioneer solicits proposals containing both a price bid and additional technical features. Once the proposals are received, each bidder's price bid is given an economic score according to a scoring rule, generally called an Economic Scoring Formula (ESF) and a technical score according to pre-specified criteria. Eventually, the contract is awarded to the bidder with the highest weighted overall score (economic + technical). However, Economic Scoring Formula selection by auctioneers is invariably and paradoxically a highly intuitive process in practice, involving few theoretical or empirical considerations, despite having being considered traditionally and mistakenly as objective, due to its mathematical nature. This paper provides a taxonomic classification of a wide variety of ESF and Abnormally Low Bid Criteria (ALBC) gathered in several countries with different tendering approaches. Practical implications concern the optimal design of price scoring rules in construction contract tenders, as well as future analyses of the effects of ESF and ALBC on competitive bidding behaviour.

Fire design rules for load bearing cold-formed steel frame walls exposed to realistic design fire curves

Light gauge Steel Frame (LSF) walls are extensively used in the building industry due to the many advantages they provide over other wall systems. Although LSF walls have been used widely, fire design of LSF walls is based on approximate prescriptive methods based on limited fire tests. Also these fire tests were conducted using the standard fire curve [1] and the applicability of available design rules to realistic design fire curves has not been verified. This paper investigates the accuracy of existing fire design rules in the current cold-formed steel standards and the modifications proposed by previous researchers. Of these the recently developed design rules by Gunalan and Mahendran [2] based on Eurocode 3 Part 1.3 [3] and AS/NZS 4600 [4] for standard fire exposure [1] were investigated in detail to determine their applicability to predict the axial compression strengths and fire resistance ratings of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fire curves. This paper also presents the fire performance results of LSF walls exposed to a range of realistic fire curves obtained using a finite element analysis based parametric study. The results from the parametric study were used to develop a simplified design method based on the critical hot flange temperature to predict the fire resistance ratings of LSF walls exposed to realistic fire curves. Finally, the stud failure times (fire resistance rating) obtained from the fire design rules and the simplified design method were compared with parametric study results for LSF walls lined with single and double plasterboards, and externally insulated with rock fibres under realistic fire curves.

Global rules on conflict-of-laws matters in international insolvency law cases: An Australian perspective

The 2012 Report “Transnational Insolvency: Global Principles for Co-operation in International Insolvency Cases” – commissioned by The American Law Institute in conjunction with The International Insolvency Institute – annexed 23 “Global Rules on Conflict-of-Laws Matters in International Insolvency Cases”. These proposed “Global Rules” are intended to “serve as legislative recommendations” to (inter alia) promote uniformity and greater certainty in the unpredictable area of conflict of laws. This article provides a brief commentary upon the 23 proposed Global Rules from an Australian perspective (comparing the effect and intent of each rule with the current Australian conflict-of-laws position) and offers some conclusions as to the merits of the “Global Rules” initiative.

Improved shear design rules of cold-formed steel beams

Light gauge cold-formed steel sections have been developed as more economical building solutions to the alternative heavier hot-rolled sections in the commercial and residential markets. Cold-formed lipped channel beams (LCB), LiteSteel beams (LSB) and triangular hollow flange beams (THFB) are commonly used as flexural members such as floor joists and bearers while rectangular hollow flange beams (RHFB) are used in small scale housing developments through to large building structures. However, their shear capacities are determined based on conservative design rules. For the shear design of cold-formed steel beams, their elastic shear buckling strength and the potential post-buckling strength must be determined accurately. Hence experimental and numerical studies were conducted to investigate the shear behaviour and strength of LCBs, LSBs, THFBs and RHFBs. Improved shear design rules including the direct strength method (DSM) based design equations were developed to determine the ultimate shear capacities of these open and hollow flange steel beams. An improved equation for the higher elastic shear buckling coefficient of cold-formed steel beams was proposed based on finite element analysis results and included in the design equations. A new post-buckling coefficient was also introduced in the design equations to include the available post-buckling strength of cold-formed steel beams. This paper presents the details of this study on cold-formed steel beams subject to shear, and the results. It proposes generalised and improved shear design rules that can be used for any type of cold-formed steel beam.

Who Rules Japan? Popular Participation in the Japanese Legal Process

"The dramatic growth of the Japanese economy in the postwar period, and its meltdown in the 1990s, has attracted sustained interest in the power dynamics underlying the management of Japan’s administrative state. Scholars and commentators have long debated over who wields power in Japan, asking the fundamental question: who really governs Japan? This important volume revisits this question by turning its attention to the regulation and design of the Japanese legal system. With essays covering the new lay-judge system in Japanese criminal trials, labour dispute resolution panels, prison policy, gendered justice, government lawyers, welfare administration and administrative transparency, this comprehensive book explores the players and processes in Japan’s administration of justice."--publisher website

Introduction: Who rules Japan?

This chapter reviews the debate about who governs Japan and considers the implications of legal system reforms initiated by the Justice System Reform Council report of 2001.

Towards simple rules heuristics for IT business value

The business value of IT (BVIT) has been a prominent and central research topic in the IS discipline. Due to continuous and unpredictable technology and business changes, a more dynamic perspective on IT business value that includes organizational learning is required. We suggest that simple rules heuristics can address this challenge. The simple rules heuristics approach has been introduced by Eisenhardt and co-authors (Bingham & Eisenhardt, 2011; Bingham, Eisenhardt, & Furr, 2007; Eisenhardt & Sull, 2001) to better understand strategic decision making for capturing superabundant, heterogeneous, fastmoving opportunities. They argue that explicit organizational learning can translate accumulated experience into increasingly effective heuristics for strategic processes in highvelocity environments. We make three main contributions by exploring the suitability of a simple rules heuristics approach for the creation of IT business value: (1) we propose six types of simple rules heuristics for capturing IT-based opportunities in dynamic environments, including synergy heuristics as specifically relevant in an IT context, (2) we show how a simple rules heuristics approach can advance our understanding of dynamics and organizational learning for BVIT, and; (3) we introduce the strategic logic of opportunity to BVIT.

Sharing social space with strangers: Setting, signalling and policing informal rules of driving etiquette

Recent research suggests that aggressive driving may be influenced by driver perceptions of their interactions with other drivers in terms of ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ behaviour. Drivers appear to take a moral standpoint on ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ driving behaviour. However, ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ in the context of road use is not defined solely by legislation, but includes informal rules that are sometimes termed ‘driving etiquette’. Driving etiquette has implications for road safety and public safety since breaches of both formal and informal rules may result in moral judgement of others and subsequent behaviours designed to punish the ‘offender’ or ‘teach them a lesson’. This paper outlines qualitative research that was undertaken with drivers to explore their understanding of driving etiquette and how they reacted to other drivers’ observance or violation of their understanding. The aim was to develop an explanatory framework within which the relationships between driving etiquette and aggressive driving could be understood, specifically moral judgement of other drivers and punishment of their transgression of driving etiquette. Thematic analysis of focus groups (n=10) generated three main themes: (1) courtesy and reciprocity, and the notion of two-way responsibility, with examples of how expectations of courteous behaviour vary according to the traffic interaction; (2) acknowledgement and shared social experience: ‘giving the wave’; and (3) responses to breaches of the expectations/informal rules. The themes are discussed in terms of their roles in an explanatory framework of the informal rules of etiquette and how interactions between drivers can reinforce or weaken a driver’s understanding of driver etiquette and potentially lead to driving aggression.

Preliminary phonological analysis of the Limi dialect of Humla Bhotia

The purpose of this research was to analyse the phonological system of the Limi dialect of Humla Bhotia. Humla Bhotia is a Tibeto-Burman language that is spoken by approximately 4000 5000 people in the far northwestern Humla province of the Kingdom of Nepal. The language has not previously been the subject of analysis. The data base for this thesis was collected on two different dialects of Humla Bhotia in Kathmandu, the capital of Nepal, from February to May 2000. I had three language informants who speak Humla Bhotia as their mother tongue. One of the informants speaks the Upper Humla dialect and the other two informants speak the Limi dialect. In this thesis I have concentrated on the phonology of the dialect of Limi but occasionally I also make reference to the Upper Humla dialect. The Limi data base consists of 600 words elicited in isolation, sentences where words have been checked for consonantal and pitch variation, and five texts comprising 117 sentences. Firstly, I have studied the geographical location, population and dialects of Humla Bhotia. Five dialects were identified: Limi, Upper Humla, La Yakba, Nyinba and Humli Khyampa. Information on the dialect areas is based on the accounts of seven mother tongue speakers of the language and on Nancy Levine s (1988) anthropological research of the ethnic group Nyinba. Secondly, I have analysed the phonological system of Limi from the viewpoint of American stucturalism much along the lines followed by Pike 1966 [1947] ja 1967 [1948]. In defining the prosodic elements I have also used acoustic analysis. In the Limi dialect there are 7 vowel phonemes. No vowel clusters occur within the same syllable. In this preliminary analysis 29 contrastive plosives, 8 affricates and 5 6 fricatives were found. The data also revealed 4 nasal phonemes, two rhotic phonemes, one lateral phoneme and two central approximants. Further research is however called for to check the phonemic status of these segments. Four contrastive prosodic elements were encountered: nasalisation, length, phonation type and pitch movement. There are two contrastive types of phonation: tense and lax. Many words were found with a third type of phonation, modal phonation. How modal phonation relates to the prosodic system is unclear at this stage and is therefore left for further research to determine. There are two contrastive pitch movement tonemes: a rising toneme and falling toneme. The falling toneme occurs in free variation with a level pitch contour. Rising appears to be linked with lax phonation and falling with tense phonation.

Preliminary Phonological Analysis of Denjongka of Sikkim

This thesis is a preliminary phonological description of the Tibetan-related Denjongka language of Sikkim, India. Because the language has not been much researched and the previous studies have focused on other issues than phonology, the present paper is the first of its kind. The data for this thesis was gathered in Gangtok, the capital of Sikkim, from March to May 2004. I had four language informants from four different locations in Sikkim who spoke different dialects of Denjongka. One of the informants, from whom I recorded c. 900 words and 530 sentences, was used as the main data source for the analysis. First, I will give some ethnographic background information on the people who speak Denjongka. Next, I will discuss first the segmental and then the suprasegmental phonology of the language, which were analysed much in line with American structuralism. I also used acoustic analysis enabled by the Praat-program. Eight vowel phonemes were found. The phonemic status of /E/, however, is still suspect. I present some preliminary evidence for roundedness, frontness and height assimilation among the vowels. In the interpretation adopted in this analysis, there are no diphthongs in Denjongka. Forty consonant phonemes were found: 17 plosives, 7 affricates, 5 fricatives, 5 nasals, 4 liquids and 2 approximants. Denjongka plosives and affricates have four-way aspiration/voicing distinction: voiceless aspirated, voiceless unaspirated, voiceless slightly aspirated (devoiced), and voiced unaspirated. Two voiceless nasals and two voiceless liquids were found. Two phonation types were found to be contrastive, lax/breathy and tense/creaky. Nasalisation and length in vowels are phonemic. Denjongka is an incipient tone language. Tonal phenomena, which involve mainly pitch and phonation type, are complex. Pitch is most of the time predictable from the initial consonant and the phonation type. In some cases, however, pitch is the only contrastive feature between words. The description of Denjongka in this paper differs from the traditional four-tone system, which has been used in many descriptions of Tibetan-related languages. In the four-tone system, pitch is contrastive both in the high and low register, whereas in the present analysis pitch has been established to contrast only in the high register. Lastly, the appendices include a comparative word list of the four Denjongka dialects studied in this thesis.

Determination of the magnetic moment by QCD sum rules

The magnetic moment of the Λ hyperon is calculated using the QCD sum-rule approach of Ioffe and Smilga. It is shown that μΛ has the structure μΛ=(2/3(eu+ed+4es)(eħ/2MΛc)(1+δΛ), where δΛ is small. In deriving the sum rules special attention is paid to the strange-quark mass-dependent terms and to several additional terms not considered in earlier works. These terms are now appropriately incorporated. The sum rule is analyzed using the ratio method. Using the external-field-induced susceptibilities determined earlier, we find that the calculated value of μΛ is in agreement with experiment.

Gluon-field contribution in QCD sum rules for the magnetic moments of the nucleons

The Wilson coefficient corresponding to the gluon-field strength GμνGμν is evaluated for the nucleon current correlation function in the presence of a static external electromagnetic field, using a regulator mass Λ to separate the high-momentum part of the Feynman diagrams. The magnetic-moment sum rules are analyzed by two different methods and the sensitivity of the results to variations in Λ are discussed.

Cortical representations for phonological quantity

Different languages use temporal speech cues in different linguistic functions. In Finnish, speech-sound duration is used as the primary cue for the phonological quantity distinction ― i.e., a distinction between short and long phonemes. For the second-language (L2) learners of Finnish, quantity is often difficult to master if speech-sound duration plays a less important role in the phonology of their native language (L1). The present studies aimed to investigate the cortical representations for phonological quantity in native speakers and L2 users of Finnish by using behavioral and electrophysiological methods. Since long-term memory representations for different speech units have been previously shown to participate in the elicitation of the mismatch negativity (MMN) brain response, MMN was used to compare the neural representation for quantity between native speakers and L2 users of Finnish. The results of the studies suggested that native Finnish speakers' MMN response to quantity was determined by the activation of native-language phonetic prototypes rather than by phoneme boundaries. In addition, native speakers seemed to process phoneme quantity and quality independently from each other by separate brain representations. The cross-linguistic MMN studies revealed that, in native speakers of Finnish, the MMN response to duration or quantity-degree changes was enhanced in amplitude selectively in speech sounds, whereas this pattern was not observed in L2 users. Native speakers' MMN enhancement is suggested to be due to the pre-attentive activation of L1 prototypes for quantity. In L2 users, the activation of L2 prototypes or other L2 learning effects were not reflected in the MMN, with one exception. Even though L2 users failed to show native-like brain responses to duration changes in a vowel that was similar in L1 and L2, their duration MMN response was native-like for an L2 vowel with no counterpart in L1. Thus, the pre-attentive activation of L2 users' representations was determined by the degree of similarity of L2 sounds to L1 sounds. In addition, behavioral experiments suggested that the establishment of representations for L2 quantity may require several years of language exposure.

Education academics: Rules of engagement

Professor Carol Nicolls suggests that academics and postgraduate students in education should be consciously positioned to influence current and future policy. Through their research they could be contributing to the foundations for building the evidence base for good policy in education, and through their research and scholarship, be seen, where necessary, to publicly challenge the status quo in policy both now and in the future. All of this is more likely to ensure that we achieve the very best outcomes for all in education in Australia.