Análisis del comportamiento de los viajeros del transporte interurbano en la isla de Gran Canaria

Máster Universitario en Sistemas Inteligentes y Aplicaciones Numéricas en Ingeniería (SIANI)

Charakterisierung und Konvergenz mehrdimensionaler kontinuierlicher Verzweigungsprozesse

In dieser Arbeit wird eine Klasse von stochastischen Prozessen untersucht, die eine abstrakte Verzweigungseigenschaft besitzen. Die betrachteten Prozesse sind homogene Markov-Prozesse in stetiger Zeit mit Zuständen im mehrdimensionalen reellen Raum und dessen Ein-Punkt-Kompaktifizierung. Ausgehend von Minimalforderungen an die zugehörige Übergangsfunktion wird eine vollständige Charakterisierung der endlichdimensionalen Verteilungen mehrdimensionaler kontinuierlicher Verzweigungsprozesse vorgenommen. Mit Hilfe eines erweiterten Laplace-Kalküls wird gezeigt, dass jeder solche Prozess durch eine bestimmte spektral positive unendlich teilbare Verteilung eindeutig bestimmt ist. Umgekehrt wird nachgewiesen, dass zu jeder solchen unendlich teilbaren Verteilung ein zugehöriger Verzweigungsprozess konstruiert werden kann. Mit Hilfe der allgemeinen Theorie Markovscher Operatorhalbgruppen wird sichergestellt, dass jeder mehrdimensionale kontinuierliche Verzweigungsprozess eine Version mit Pfaden im Raum der cadlag-Funktionen besitzt. Ferner kann die (funktionale) schwache Konvergenz der Prozesse auf die vage Konvergenz der zugehörigen Charakterisierungen zurückgeführt werden. Hieraus folgen allgemeine Approximations- und Konvergenzsätze für die betrachtete Klasse von Prozessen. Diese allgemeinen Resultate werden auf die Unterklasse der sich verzweigenden Diffusionen angewendet. Es wird gezeigt, dass für diese Prozesse stets eine Version mit stetigen Pfaden existiert. Schließlich wird die allgemeinste Form der Fellerschen Diffusionsapproximation für mehrtypige Galton-Watson-Prozesse bewiesen.

Quadraturformeln für das Qualokationsverfahren

Im Mittelpunkt dieser Arbeit steht Beweis der Existenz- und Eindeutigkeit von Quadraturformeln, die für das Qualokationsverfahren geeignet sind. Letzteres ist ein von Sloan, Wendland und Chandler entwickeltes Verfahren zur numerischen Behandlung von Randintegralgleichungen auf glatten Kurven (allgemeiner: periodische Pseudodifferentialgleichungen). Es erreicht die gleichen Konvergenzordnungen wie das Petrov-Galerkin-Verfahren, wenn man durch den Operator bestimmte Quadraturformeln verwendet. Zunächst werden die hier behandelten Pseudodifferentialoperatoren und das Qualokationsverfahren vorgestellt. Anschließend wird eine Theorie zur Existenz und Eindeutigkeit von Quadraturformeln entwickelt. Ein wesentliches Hilfsmittel hierzu ist die hier bewiesene Verallgemeinerung eines Satzes von Nürnberger über die Existenz und Eindeutigkeit von Quadraturformeln mit positiven Gewichten, die exakt für Tschebyscheff-Räume sind. Es wird schließlich gezeigt, dass es stets eindeutig bestimmte Quadraturformeln gibt, welche die in den Arbeiten von Sloan und Wendland formulierten Bedingungen erfüllen. Desweiteren werden 2-Punkt-Quadraturformeln für so genannte einfache Operatoren bestimmt, mit welchen das Qualokationsverfahren mit einem Testraum von stückweise konstanten Funktionen eine höhere Konvergenzordnung hat. Außerdem wird gezeigt, dass es für nicht-einfache Operatoren im Allgemeinen keine Quadraturformel gibt, mit der die Konvergenzordnung höher als beim Petrov-Galerkin-Verfahren ist. Das letzte Kapitel beinhaltet schließlich numerische Tests mit Operatoren mit konstanten und variablen Koeffizienten, welche die theoretischen Ergebnisse der vorangehenden Kapitel bestätigen.

Determinants of child undernutrition in India. A micro-case study to operationalize the Capability Approach

The present research aims at shedding light on the demanding puzzle characterizing the issue of child undernutrition in India. Indeed, the so called ‘Indian development paradox’ identifies the phenomenon according to which higher level of income per capita is recorded alongside a lethargic reduction in the proportion of underweight children aged below three years. Thus, in the time period occurring from 2000 to 2005, real Gross Domestic Production per capita has annually grown at 5.4%, whereas the proportion of children who are underweight has declined from 47% to 46%, a mere one point percent. Such trend opens up the space for discussing the traditionally assumed linkage between income-poverty and undernutrition as well as food intervention as the main focus of policies designed to fight child hunger. Also, it unlocks doors for evaluating the role of an alternative economic approach aiming at explaining undernutrition, such as the Capability Approach. The Capability Approach argues for widening the informational basis to account not only for resources, but also for variables related to liberties, opportunities and autonomy in pursuing what individuals value.The econometric analysis highlights the relevance of including behavioral factors when explaining child undernutrition. In particular, the ability of the mother to move freely in the community without the need of asking permission to her husband or mother-in-law is statistically significant when included in the model, which accounts also for confounding traditional variables, such as economic wealth and food security. Also, focusing on agency, results indicates the necessity of measuring autonomy in different domains and the need of improving the measurement scale for agency data, especially with regards the domain of household duties. Finally, future research is required to investigate policy venues for increasing agency in women and in the communities they live in as viable strategy for reducing the plague of child undernutrition in India.

Lifelines in case of Natural Disaster Emergencies

In order to handle Natural disasters, emergency areas are often individuated over the territory, close to populated centres. In these areas, rescue services are located which respond with resources and materials for population relief. A method of automatic positioning of these centres in case of a flood or an earthquake is presented. The positioning procedure consists of two distinct parts developed by the research group of Prof Michael G. H. Bell of Imperial College, London, refined and applied to real cases at the University of Bologna under the coordination of Prof Ezio Todini. There are certain requirements that need to be observed such as the maximum number of rescue points as well as the number of people involved. Initially, the candidate points are decided according to the ones proposed by the local civil protection services. We then calculate all possible routes from each candidate rescue point to all other points, generally using the concept of the "hyperpath", namely a set of paths each one of which may be optimal. The attributes of the road network are of fundamental importance, both for the calculation of the ideal distance and eventual delays due to the event measured in travel time units. In a second phase, the distances are used to decide the optimum rescue point positions using heuristics. This second part functions by "elimination". In the beginning, all points are considered rescue centres. During every interaction we wish to delete one point and calculate the impact it creates. In each case, we delete the point that creates less impact until we reach the number of rescue centres we wish to keep.

The Development, Reliability, and Validity of the OARS Multidimensional Functional Assessment Questionnaire

This report outlines the development, validity, and reliability of Part A of the OARS Multidimensional Functional Assessment Questionnaire. Part A permits assessment of individuals' functioning on each of five dimensions (social, economic, mental health, physical health and self-care capacity), the detailed information in each area being summarized on a 6-point rating scale by a rater. Content and consensual validity were ensured by the manner of construction. Information on criterion validity was obtained for all dimensions except social. The criterion used and their associated Kendall's Tau values were: an objective economic scale (.62); ratings based on personal interviews by geropsychiatrists (.60); physician's associates (.82); and physical therapists (.89). For 11 geographically dispersed raters from research and clinic settings, intraclass correlational coefficients, based on 30 subjects, ranged from .66 on physical health to .87 in self-care capacity; 74% of the ratings were in complete agreement, 24% differed by one point.

Genotypic and phenotypic characterization of Trypanosoma brucei gambiense isolates from Ibba, South Sudan, an area of high melarsoprol treatment failure rate

Resistance of trypanosomes to melarsoprol is ascribed to reduced uptake of the drug via the P2 nucleoside transporter. The aim of this study was to look for evidence of drug resistance in Trypanosoma brucei gambiense isolates from sleeping sickness patients in Ibba, South Sudan, an area of high melarsoprol failure rate. Eighteen T. b. gambiense stocks were phenotypically and only 10 strains genotypically characterized. In vitro, all isolates were sensitive to melarsoprol, melarsen oxide, and diminazene. Infected mice were cured with a 4 day treatment of 2.5mg/kg bwt melarsoprol, confirming that the isolates were sensitive. The gene that codes for the P2 transporter, TbATI, was amplified by PCR and sequenced. The sequences were almost identical to the TbAT1(sensitive) reference, except for one point mutation, C1384T resulting in the amino acid change proline-462 to serine. None of the described TbAT1(resistant)-type mutations were detected. In a T. b. gambiense sleeping sickness focus where melarsoprol had to be abandoned due to the high incidence of treatment failures, no evidence for drug resistant trypanosomes or for TbAT1(resistant)-type alleles of the P2 transporter could be found. These findings indicate that factors other than drug resistance contribute to melarsoprol treatment failures.

Predicting the evolution of Kaposi sarcoma, in the highly active antiretroviral therapy era

BACKGROUND: The outcome of Kaposi sarcoma varies. While many patients do well on highly active antiretroviral therapy, others have progressive disease and need chemotherapy. In order to predict which patients are at risk of unfavorable evolution, we established a prognostic score. METHOD: The survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier method; Cox proportional hazards models) of 144 patients with Kaposi sarcoma prospectively included in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, from January 1996 to December 2004, was conducted. OUTCOME ANALYZED: use of chemotherapy or death. VARIABLES ANALYZED: demographics, tumor staging [T0 or T1 (16)], CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 RNA concentration, human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) DNA in plasma and serological titers to latent and lytic antigens. RESULTS: Of 144 patients, 54 needed chemotherapy or died. In the univariate analysis, tumor stage T1, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl, positive HHV8 DNA and absence of antibodies against the HHV8 lytic antigen at the time of diagnosis were significantly associated with a bad outcome.Using multivariate analysis, the following variables were associated with an increased risk of unfavorable outcome: T1 [hazard ratio (HR) 5.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.97-9.18], CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl (HR 2.33; 95% CI 1.22-4.45) and positive HHV8 DNA (HR 2.14; 95% CI 1.79-2.85).We created a score with these variables ranging from 0 to 4: T1 stage counted for two points, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl for one point, and positive HHV8 viral load for one point. Each point increase was associated with a HR of 2.26 (95% CI 1.79-2.85). CONCLUSION: In the multivariate analysis, staging (T1), CD4 cell count (<200 cells/microl), positive HHV8 DNA in plasma, at the time of diagnosis, predict evolution towards death or the need of chemotherapy.

Transconvolution and the virtual positron emission tomograph--a new method for cross calibration in quantitative PET∕CT imaging

PURPOSE Positron emission tomography (PET)∕computed tomography (CT) measurements on small lesions are impaired by the partial volume effect, which is intrinsically tied to the point spread function of the actual imaging system, including the reconstruction algorithms. The variability resulting from different point spread functions hinders the assessment of quantitative measurements in clinical routine and especially degrades comparability within multicenter trials. To improve quantitative comparability there is a need for methods to match different PET∕CT systems through elimination of this systemic variability. Consequently, a new method was developed and tested that transforms the image of an object as produced by one tomograph to another image of the same object as it would have been seen by a different tomograph. The proposed new method, termed Transconvolution, compensates for differing imaging properties of different tomographs and particularly aims at quantitative comparability of PET∕CT in the context of multicenter trials. METHODS To solve the problem of image normalization, the theory of Transconvolution was mathematically established together with new methods to handle point spread functions of different PET∕CT systems. Knowing the point spread functions of two different imaging systems allows determining a Transconvolution function to convert one image into the other. This function is calculated by convolving one point spread function with the inverse of the other point spread function which, when adhering to certain boundary conditions such as the use of linear acquisition and image reconstruction methods, is a numerically accessible operation. For reliable measurement of such point spread functions characterizing different PET∕CT systems, a dedicated solid-state phantom incorporating (68)Ge∕(68)Ga filled spheres was developed. To iteratively determine and represent such point spread functions, exponential density functions in combination with a Gaussian distribution were introduced. Furthermore, simulation of a virtual PET system provided a standard imaging system with clearly defined properties to which the real PET systems were to be matched. A Hann window served as the modulation transfer function for the virtual PET. The Hann's apodization properties suppressed high spatial frequencies above a certain critical frequency, thereby fulfilling the above-mentioned boundary conditions. The determined point spread functions were subsequently used by the novel Transconvolution algorithm to match different PET∕CT systems onto the virtual PET system. Finally, the theoretically elaborated Transconvolution method was validated transforming phantom images acquired on two different PET systems to nearly identical data sets, as they would be imaged by the virtual PET system. RESULTS The proposed Transconvolution method matched different PET∕CT-systems for an improved and reproducible determination of a normalized activity concentration. The highest difference in measured activity concentration between the two different PET systems of 18.2% was found in spheres of 2 ml volume. Transconvolution reduced this difference down to 1.6%. In addition to reestablishing comparability the new method with its parameterization of point spread functions allowed a full characterization of imaging properties of the examined tomographs. CONCLUSIONS By matching different tomographs to a virtual standardized imaging system, Transconvolution opens a new comprehensive method for cross calibration in quantitative PET imaging. The use of a virtual PET system restores comparability between data sets from different PET systems by exerting a common, reproducible, and defined partial volume effect.

Patient classification system: An integrated method for measuring nursing intensity and optimizing resource allocation

A patient classification system was developed integrating a patient acuity instrument with a computerized nursing distribution method based on a linear programming model. The system was designed for real-time measurement of patient acuity (workload) and allocation of nursing personnel to optimize the utilization of resources.^ The acuity instrument was a prototype tool with eight categories of patients defined by patient severity and nursing intensity parameters. From this tool, the demand for nursing care was defined in patient points with one point equal to one hour of RN time. Validity and reliability of the instrument was determined as follows: (1) Content validity by a panel of expert nurses; (2) predictive validity through a paired t-test analysis of preshift and postshift categorization of patients; (3) initial reliability by a one month pilot of the instrument in a practice setting; and (4) interrater reliability by the Kappa statistic.^ The nursing distribution system was a linear programming model using a branch and bound technique for obtaining integer solutions. The objective function was to minimize the total number of nursing personnel used by optimally assigning the staff to meet the acuity needs of the units. A penalty weight was used as a coefficient of the objective function variables to define priorities for allocation of staff.^ The demand constraints were requirements to meet the total acuity points needed for each unit and to have a minimum number of RNs on each unit. Supply constraints were: (1) total availability of each type of staff and the value of that staff member (value was determined relative to that type of staff's ability to perform the job function of an RN (i.e., value for eight hours RN = 8 points, LVN = 6 points); (2) number of personnel available for floating between units.^ The capability of the model to assign staff quantitatively and qualitatively equal to the manual method was established by a thirty day comparison. Sensitivity testing demonstrated appropriate adjustment of the optimal solution to changes in penalty coefficients in the objective function and to acuity totals in the demand constraints.^ Further investigation of the model documented: correct adjustment of assignments in response to staff value changes; and cost minimization by an addition of a dollar coefficient to the objective function. ^

Use of outdoor ranges by laying hens in different sized flocks.

In studies assessing outdoor range use of laying hens, the number of hens seen on outdoor ranges is inversely correlated to flock size. The aim of this study was to assess individual ranging behavior on a covered (veranda) and an uncovered outdoor run (free-range) in laying hen flocks varying in size. Five to ten percent of hens (aged 9–15 months) within 4 small (2–2500 hens), 4 medium (5–6000), and 4 large (≥9000) commercial flocks were fitted with radio frequency identification (RFID) tags. Antennas were placed at both sides of all popholes between the house and the veranda and the veranda and the free-range. Ranging behavior was directly monitored for approximately three weeks in combination with hourly photographs of the free-range for the distribution of hens and 6h long video recordings on two parts of the free-range during two days. Between 79 and 99% of the tagged hens were registered on the veranda at least once and between 47 and 90% were registered on the free-range at least once. There was no association between the percentage of hens registered outside the house (veranda or free-range) and flock size. However, individual hens in small and medium sized flocks visited the areas outside the house more frequently and spent more time there than hens from large flocks. Foraging behavior on the free-range was shown more frequently and for a longer duration by hens from small and medium sized flocks than by hens from large flocks. This difference in ranging behavior could account for the negative relationship between flock size and the number of hens seen outside at one point of time. In conclusion, our work describes individual birds’ use of areas outside the house within large scale commercial egg production.

Fast Update of Conditional Simulation Ensembles

Gaussian random field (GRF) conditional simulation is a key ingredient in many spatial statistics problems for computing Monte-Carlo estimators and quantifying uncertainties on non-linear functionals of GRFs conditional on data. Conditional simulations are known to often be computer intensive, especially when appealing to matrix decomposition approaches with a large number of simulation points. This work studies settings where conditioning observations are assimilated batch sequentially, with one point or a batch of points at each stage. Assuming that conditional simulations have been performed at a previous stage, the goal is to take advantage of already available sample paths and by-products to produce updated conditional simulations at mini- mal cost. Explicit formulae are provided, which allow updating an ensemble of sample paths conditioned on n ≥ 0 observations to an ensemble conditioned on n + q observations, for arbitrary q ≥ 1. Compared to direct approaches, the proposed formulae proveto substantially reduce computational complexity. Moreover, these formulae explicitly exhibit how the q new observations are updating the old sample paths. Detailed complexity calculations highlighting the benefits of this approach with respect to state-of-the-art algorithms are provided and are complemented by numerical experiments.

Of missing fathers and Big Fish: reconstructive tendencies after postmodernism

Many things have been said about literature after postmodernism, but one point there seems to be some agreement on is that it does not turn its back radically on its postmodernist forerunner, but rather generally continues to heed and value their insights. There seems to be something strikingly non-oedipal about the recent aesthetic shift. It is a project of reconstruction that remains deeply rooted in postmodernist tenets. Such an essentially non-oedipal attitude, I would argue, is central to the nature of the reconstructive shift. This, however, also raises questions about the wider cultural context from which such an aesthetic stance arises. If postmodernism was nurtured by the revolutionary spirits of the late 1960s, reconstruction faces a different world with different strategies. Instead of the postmodernist urge to subvert, expose and undermine, reconstruction yearns towards tentative and fragile intersubjective understanding, towards responsibility and community. Instead of revolt and rebellion it explores reconciliation and compromise. One instance in which this becomes visible in reconstructive narratives is the recurring figure of the lost father. Missing father figures abound in recent novels by authors like Mark Z. Danielewski, Dave Eggers, Yann Mantel, David Mitchell etc. It almost seems like a younger generation is yearning for the fathers which postmodernism has struggled hard to do away with. My paper will focus on one particularly striking example to explore the implications of this development: Daniel Wallace’s novel Big Fish and Tim Burton’s well-known film adaptation of the same. In their negotiation of fact and fiction, of doubt and belief, of freedom and responsibility, all of which converge in a father-son relationship, they serve well to illustrate central characteristics and concerns of recent attempts to leave postmodernism behind.

MARITAL STATUS AND CARDIOVASCULAR RISK (SERUM, CHOLESTEROL, CIGARETTE, SMOKING, BLOOD, PRESSURE, SYSTOLIC)

There were three purposes of this study. The first was to describe the association between stable marital status and serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and cigarette smoking. The second purpose was to determine whether individuals who were married at one point and became widowed or divorced/separated had higher serum cholesterol, higher systolic blood pressure or were more likely to smoke prior to the change in marital status compared with individuals who did not change marital status. The third purpose was to determine whether the changes in marital status described above were related to increases in serum cholesterol or in cigarette smoking behavior. The rationale for the study was to determine whether previously reported associations between marital status categories and cardiovascular mortality may be mediated through higher values of risk correlates for cardiovascular disease among unmarried individuals.^ The study group selected for this dissertation was a sample from the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program (HDFP) population. The HDFP population was aged 30-69 years at the initial visit and included blacks and whites, males and females. The population was followed five years after the initial visit and periodic measurements of serum cholesterol, blood pressure and cigarette smoking behavior were obtained.^ Serum cholesterol was not associated with stable marital status category or with marital status prior to change. Changes in serum cholesterol were associated with marital status categories after change but the serum cholesterol values deceased rather than increased. Married individuals were shown to have higher serum cholesterol values compared with unmarried. Selection of the HDFP population may have influenced an ability to detect a significant association between marital status and serum cholesterol but it is doubtful that use of a general population would alter the direction of the association.^ Systolic blood pressure was significantly higher at the initial visit among unmarried white males and females compared with their married counterparts. No association between systolic blood pressure was found among black males or females. Those individuals who were married at the initial visit who experienced a change in marital status were found to have higher systolic blood pressure prior to the change in marital status. . . . (Author's abstract exceeds stipulated maximum length. Discontinued here with permission of author.) UMI ^

Rabies control in the developing world: Results of a cross-sectional study in Bohol, Philippines

Rabies remains a significant problem in much of the developed world, where canine rabies is not well controlled, and the bite of an infected dog is the most common means of transmission. The Philippines continues to report several hundred cases of human rabies every year, and many more cases go undetected. In recent years, the province of Bohol has been targeted by the Philippine government and the World Health Organization for a rabies eradication program. ^ The primary objective of this dissertation research was to describe factors associated with dog vaccination coverage and knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding rabies among households in Bohol, Philippines. Utilizing a cross-sectional cluster survey design, we sampled 460 households and 541 dogs residing within dog-owning households. ^ Multivariate linear regression was used to examine potential associations between knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAPs) and variables of interest. Forty-six percent of households knew that rabies was spread through the bite of an infected dog. The mean knowledge score was 8.36 (SD: ± 3.4; range: 1–24). We found that having known someone with rabies was significantly associated with an almost one point increase in the knowledge score (β = 0.88; p = 0.02). The mean attitudes score was 5.65 (SD: ± 0.63; range: 2–6), and the mean practices score was 7.07 (SD: ± 1.7; range: 2–9). Both the attitudes score and the practices score were positively and significantly associated with only the knowledge score and no other covariates. ^ Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine associations between dog vaccination coverage and variables of interest. Approximately 71% of owned dogs in Bohol were reported as vaccinated at some time during their lives. We found that a dog's age was significantly associated with vaccination, and the odds of vaccination increased in a linear fashion with age. We also found that dogs had approximately twice the odds of being vaccinated if they were confined both day and night to the household premises or if the owner was employed; however, these results were only marginally significant (p = 0.07) in the multivariate model. ^ Finally, a systematic review was conducted on canine rabies vaccination and dog population demographics in the developing world. We found few studies on this topic, especially in countries where the burden of rabies is greatest. Overall, dog ownership is high. Dogs are quite young and do not live very long due to disease and accidents. The biggest deterrent to vaccination is the rapid dog population turnover. ^ It is our hope that this work will be used to improve dog rabies vaccination programs around the world and save lives, both human and canine.^