Inhibitors to optimal project portfolio selection

The selection of projects and programs of work is a key function of both public and private sector organisations. Ideally, projects and programs that are selected to be undertaken are consistent with strategic objectives for the organisation; will provide value for money and return on investment; will be adequately resourced and prioritised; will not compete with general operations for resources and not restrict the ability of operations to provide income to the organisation; will match the capacity and capability of the organisation to deliver; and will produce outputs that are willingly accepted by end users and customers. Unfortunately,this is not always the case. Possible inhibitors to optimal project portfolio selection include: processes that are inconsistent with the needs of the organisation; reluctance to use an approach that may not produce predetermined preferences; loss of control and perceived decision making power; reliance on quantitative methods rather than qualitative methods for justification; ineffective project and program sponsorship; unclear project governance, processes and linkage to business strategies; ignorance, taboos and perceived effectiveness; inadequate education and training about the processes and their importance.

Expansion and chondrogenic potential of human articular chondrocytes on macroporous microcarriers

Regenerative medicine techniques are currently being investigated to replace damaged cartilage. Critical to the success of these techniques is the ability to expand the initial population of cells while minimising de-differentiation to allow for hyaline cartilage to form. Three-dimensional culture systems have been shown to enhance the differentiation of chondrocytes in comparison to two-dimensional culture systems. Additionally, bioreactor expansion on microcarriers can provide mechanical stimulation and reduce the amount of cellular manipulation during expansion. The aim of this study was to characterise the expansion of human chondrocytes on microcarriers and to determine their potential to form cartilaginous tissue in vitro. High-grade human articular cartilage was obtained from leg amputations with ethics approval. Chondrocytes were isolated by collagenase digestion and expanded in either monolayers (104 cells/cm2) or on CultiSpher-G microcarriers (104 cells/mg) for three weeks. Following expansion, monolayer cells were passaged and cells on microcarriers were either left intact or the cells were released with trypsin/EDTA. Pellets from these three groups were formed and cultured for three weeks to establish the chondrogenic differentiation potential of monolayer-expanded and microcarrier-expanded chondrocytes. Cell viability, proliferation, glycosaminoglycan (GAG) accumulation, and collagen synthesis were assessed. Histology and immunohistochemistry were also performed. Human chondrocytes remained viable and expanded on microcarriers 10.2±2.6 fold in three weeks. GAG content significantly increased with time, with the majority of GAG found in the medium. Collagen production per nanogram DNA increased marginally during expansion. Histology revealed that chondrocytes were randomly distributed on microcarrier surfaces yet most pores remained cell free. Critically, human chondrocytes expanded on microcarriers maintained their ability to redifferentiate in pellet culture, as demonstrated by Safranin-O and collagen II staining. These data confirm the feasibility of microcarriers for passage-free cultivation of human articular chondrocytes. However, cell expansion needs to be improved, perhaps through growth factor supplementation, for clinical utility. Recent data indicate that cell-laden microcarriers can be used to seed fresh microcarriers, thereby increasing the expansion factor while minimising enzymatic passage.

Adult human articular chondrocytes in a microcarrier-based culture system : expansion and redifferentiation

xpanding human chondrocytes in vitro while maintaining their ability to form cartilage remains a key challenge in cartilage tissue engineering. One promising approach to address this is to use microcarriers as substrates for chondrocyte expansion. While microcarriers have shown beneficial effects for expansion of animal and ectopic human chondrocytes, their utility has not been determined for freshly isolated adult human articular chondrocytes. Thus, we investigated the proliferation and subsequent chondrogenic differentiation of these clinically relevant cells on porous gelatin microcarriers and compared them to those expanded using traditional monolayers. Chondrocytes attached to microcarriers within 2 days and remained viable over 4 weeks of culture in spinner flasks. Cells on microcarriers exhibited a spread morphology and initially proliferated faster than cells in monolayer culture, however, with prolonged expansion they were less proliferative. Cells expanded for 1 month and enzymatically released from microcarriers formed cartilaginous tissue in micromass pellet cultures, which was similar to tissue formed by monolayer-expanded cells. Cells left attached to microcarriers did not exhibit chondrogenic capacity. Culture conditions, such as microcarrier material, oxygen tension, and mechanical stimulation require further investigation to facilitate the efficient expansion of clinically relevant human articular chondrocytes that maintain chondrogenic potential for cartilage regeneration applications.

Towards practical implementation of time optimal trajectories for underwater vehicles

In this paper, we are concerned with the practical implementation of time optimal numerical techniques on underwater vehicles. We briefly introduce the model of underwater vehicle we consider and present the parameters for the test bed ODIN (Omni-Directional Intelligent Navigator). Then we explain the numerical method used to obtain time optimal trajectories with a structure suitable for the implementation. We follow this with a discussion on the modifications to be made considering the characteristics of ODIN. Finally, we illustrate our computations with some experimental results.

Optimal fluid injection strategies for in situ mineral leaching in two-dimensions

This paper examines the ground-water flow problem associated with the injection and recovery of certain corrosive fluids into mineral bearing rock. The aim is to dissolve the minerals in situ, and then recover them in solution. In general, it is not possible to recover all the injected fluid, which is of concern economically and environmentally. However, a new strategy is proposed here, that allows all the leaching fluid to be recovered. A mathematical model of the situation is solved approximately using an asymptotic solution, and exactly using a boundary integral approach. Solutions are shown for two-dimensional flow, which is of some practical interest as it is achievable in old mine tunnels, for example.

Optimal voltage support mechanism in distribution networks

Optimal scheduling of voltage regulators (VRs), fixed and switched capacitors and voltage on customer side of transformer (VCT) along with the optimal allocaton of VRs and capacitors are performed using a hybrid optimisation method based on discrete particle swarm optimisation and genetic algorithm. Direct optimisation of the tap position is not appropriate since in general the high voltage (HV) side voltage is not known. Therefore, the tap setting can be determined give the optimal VCT once the HV side voltage is known. The objective function is composed of the distribution line loss cost, the peak power loss cost and capacitors' and VRs' capital, operation and maintenance costs. The constraints are limits on bus voltage and feeder current along with VR taps. The bus voltage should be maintained within the standard level and the feeder current should not exceed the feeder-rated current. The taps are to adjust the output voltage of VRs between 90 and 110% of their input voltages. For validation of the proposed method, the 18-bus IEEE system is used. The results are compared with prior publications to illustrate the benefit of the employed technique. The results also show that the lowest cost planning for voltage profile will be achieved if a combination of capacitors, VRs and VCTs is considered.

Wavefront aberrations and the depth of focus of the human eye

The depth of focus (DOF) can be defined as the variation in image distance of a lens or an optical system which can be tolerated without incurring an objectionable lack of sharpness of focus. The DOF of the human eye serves a mechanism of blur tolerance. As long as the target image remains within the depth of focus in the image space, the eye will still perceive the image as being clear. A large DOF is especially important for presbyopic patients with partial or complete loss of accommodation (presbyopia), since this helps them to obtain an acceptable retinal image when viewing a target moving through a range of near to intermediate distances. The aim of this research was to investigate the DOF of the human eye and its association with the natural wavefront aberrations, and how higher order aberrations (HOAs) can be used to expand the DOF, in particular by inducing spherical aberrations ( 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z ). The depth of focus of the human eye can be measured using a variety of subjective and objective methods. Subjective measurements based on a Badal optical system have been widely adopted, through which the retinal image size can be kept constant. In such measurements, the subject.s tested eye is normally cyclopleged. Objective methods without the need of cycloplegia are also used, where the eye.s accommodative response is continuously monitored. Generally, the DOF measured by subjective methods are slightly larger than those measured objectively. In recent years, methods have also been developed to estimate DOF from retinal image quality metrics (IQMs) derived from the ocular wavefront aberrations. In such methods, the DOF is defined as the range of defocus error that degrades the retinal image quality calculated from the IQMs to a certain level of the possible maximum value. In this study, the effect of different amounts of HOAs on the DOF was theoretically evaluated by modelling and comparing the DOF of subjects from four different clinical groups, including young emmetropes (20 subjects), young myopes (19 subjects), presbyopes (32 subjects) and keratoconics (35 subjects). A novel IQM-based through-focus algorithm was developed to theoretically predict the DOF of subjects with their natural HOAs. Additional primary spherical aberration ( 0 4 Z ) was also induced in the wavefronts of myopes and presbyopes to simulate the effect of myopic refractive correction (e.g. LASIK) and presbyopic correction (e.g. progressive power IOL) on the subject.s DOF. Larger amounts of HOAs were found to lead to greater values of predicted DOF. The introduction of primary spherical aberration was found to provide moderate increase of DOF while slightly deteriorating the image quality at the same time. The predicted DOF was also affected by the IQMs and the threshold level adopted. We then investigated the influence of the chosen threshold level of the IQMs on the predicted DOF, and how it relates to the subjectively measured DOF. The subjective DOF was measured in a group of 17 normal subjects, and we used through-focus visual Strehl ratio based on optical transfer function (VSOTF) derived from their wavefront aberrations as the IQM to estimate the DOF. The results allowed comparison of the subjective DOF with the estimated DOF and determination of a threshold level for DOF estimation. Significant correlation was found between the subject.s estimated threshold level for the estimated DOF and HOA RMS (Pearson.s r=0.88, p<0.001). The linear correlation can be used to estimate the threshold level for each individual subject, subsequently leading to a method for estimating individual.s DOF from a single measurement of their wavefront aberrations. A subsequent study was conducted to investigate the DOF of keratoconic subjects. Significant increases of the level of HOAs, including spherical aberration, coma and trefoil, can be observed in keratoconic eyes. This population of subjects provides an opportunity to study the influence of these HOAs on DOF. It was also expected that the asymmetric aberrations (coma and trefoil) in the keratoconic eye could interact with defocus to cause regional blur of the target. A dual-Badal-channel optical system with a star-pattern target was used to measure the subjective DOF in 10 keratoconic eyes and compared to those from a group of 10 normal subjects. The DOF measured in keratoconic eyes was significantly larger than that in normal eyes. However there was not a strong correlation between the large amount of HOA RMS and DOF in keratoconic eyes. Among all HOA terms, spherical aberration was found to be the only HOA that helped to significantly increase the DOF in the studied keratoconic subjects. Through the first three studies, a comprehensive understanding of DOF and its association to the HOAs in the human eye had been achieved. An adaptive optics system was then designed and constructed. The system was capable of measuring and altering the wavefront aberrations in the subject.s eye and measuring the resulting DOF under the influence of different combination of HOAs. Using the AO system, we investigated the concept of extending the DOF through optimized combinations of 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z . Systematic introduction of a targeted amount of both 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z was found to significantly improve the DOF of healthy subjects. The use of wavefront combinations of 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z with opposite signs can further expand the DOF, rather than using 0 4 Z or 0 6 Z alone. The optimal wavefront combinations to expand the DOF were estimated using the ratio of increase in DOF and loss of retinal image quality defined by VSOTF. In the experiment, the optimal combinations of 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z were found to provide a better balance of DOF expansion and relatively smaller decreases in VA. Therefore, the optimal combinations of 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z provides a more efficient method to expand the DOF rather than 0 4 Z or 0 6 Z alone. This PhD research has shown that there is a positive correlation between the DOF and the eye.s wavefront aberrations. More aberrated eyes generally have a larger DOF. The association of DOF and the natural HOAs in normal subjects can be quantified, which allows the estimation of DOF directly from the ocular wavefront aberration. Among the Zernike HOA terms, spherical aberrations ( 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z ) were found to improve the DOF. Certain combinations of 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z provide a more effective method to expand DOF than using 0 4 Z or 0 6 Z alone, and this could be useful in the optimal design of presbyopic optical corrections such as multifocal contact lenses, intraocular lenses and laser corneal surgeries.

Essays on irrigation development, farm production and unaccounted costs : theory and empirical evidence

A review of the literature related to issues involved in irrigation induced agricultural development (IIAD) reveals that: (1) the magnitude, sensitivity and distribution of social welfare of IIAD is not fully analysed; (2) the impacts of excessive pesticide use on farmers’ health are not adequately explained; (3) no analysis estimates the relationship between farm level efficiency and overuse of agro-chemical inputs under imperfect markets; and (4) the method of incorporating groundwater extraction costs is misleading. This PhD thesis investigates these issues by using primary data, along with secondary data from Sri Lanka. The overall findings of the thesis can be summarised as follows. First, the thesis demonstrates that Sri Lanka has gained a positive welfare change as a result of introducing new irrigation technology. The change in the consumer surplus is Rs.48,236 million, while the change in the producer surplus is Rs. 14,274 millions between 1970 and 2006. The results also show that the long run benefits and costs of IIAD depend critically on the magnitude of the expansion of the irrigated area, as well as the competition faced by traditional farmers (agricultural crowding out effects). The traditional sector’s ability to compete with the modern sector depends on productivity improvements, reducing production costs and future structural changes (spillover effects). Second, the thesis findings on pesticides used for agriculture show that, on average, a farmer incurs a cost of approximately Rs. 590 to 800 per month during a typical cultivation period due to exposure to pesticides. It is shown that the value of average loss in earnings per farmer for the ‘hospitalised’ sample is Rs. 475 per month, while it is approximately Rs. 345 per month for the ‘general’ farmers group during a typical cultivation season. However, the average willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid exposure to pesticides is approximately Rs. 950 and Rs. 620 for ‘hospitalised’ and ‘general’ farmers’ samples respectively. The estimated percentage contribution for WTP due to health costs, lost earnings, mitigating expenditure, and disutility are 29, 50, 5 and 16 per cent respectively for hospitalised farmers, while they are 32, 55, 8 and 5 per cent respectively for ‘general’ farmers. It is also shown that given market imperfections for most agricultural inputs, farmers are overusing pesticides with the expectation of higher future returns. This has led to an increase in inefficiency in farming practices which is not understood by the farmers. Third, it is found that various groundwater depletion studies in the economics literature have provided misleading optimal water extraction quantity levels. This is due to a failure to incorporate all production costs in the relevant models. It is only by incorporating quality changes to quantity deterioration, that it is possible to derive socially optimal levels. Empirical results clearly show that the benefits per hectare per month considering both the avoidance costs of deepening agro-wells by five feet from the existing average, as well as the avoidance costs of maintaining the water salinity level at 1.8 (mmhos/Cm), is approximately Rs. 4,350 for farmers in the Anuradhapura district and Rs. 5,600 for farmers in the Matale district.

A Stochastic View of Optimal Regret through Minimax Duality

We study the regret of optimal strategies for online convex optimization games. Using von Neumann's minimax theorem, we show that the optimal regret in this adversarial setting is closely related to the behavior of the empirical minimization algorithm in a stochastic process setting: it is equal to the maximum, over joint distributions of the adversary's action sequence, of the difference between a sum of minimal expected losses and the minimal empirical loss. We show that the optimal regret has a natural geometric interpretation, since it can be viewed as the gap in Jensen's inequality for a concave functional--the minimizer over the player's actions of expected loss--defined on a set of probability distributions. We use this expression to obtain upper and lower bounds on the regret of an optimal strategy for a variety of online learning problems. Our method provides upper bounds without the need to construct a learning algorithm; the lower bounds provide explicit optimal strategies for the adversary. Peter L. Bartlett, Alexander Rakhlin

Optimal control of distributed generators and capacitors by hybrid DPSO

In this paper, a comprehensive planning methodology is proposed that can minimize the line loss, maximize the reliability and improve the voltage profile in a distribution network. The injected active and reactive power of Distributed Generators (DG) and the installed capacitor sizes at different buses and for different load levels are optimally controlled. The tap setting of HV/MV transformer along with the line and transformer upgrading is also included in the objective function. A hybrid optimization method, called Hybrid Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (HDPSO), is introduced to solve this nonlinear and discrete optimization problem. The proposed HDPSO approach is a developed version of DPSO in which the diversity of the optimizing variables is increased using the genetic algorithm operators to avoid trapping in local minima. The objective function is composed of the investment cost of DGs, capacitors, distribution lines and HV/MV transformer, the line loss, and the reliability. All of these elements are converted into genuine dollars. Given this, a single-objective optimization method is sufficient. The bus voltage and the line current as constraints are satisfied during the optimization procedure. The IEEE 18-bus test system is modified and employed to evaluate the proposed algorithm. The results illustrate the unavoidable need for optimal control on the DG active and reactive power and capacitors in distribution networks.

Optimal-stopping control for airborne collision avoidance and return-to-course flight

This paper considers an aircraft collision avoidance design problem that also incorporates design of the aircraft’s return-to-course flight. This control design problem is formulated as a non-linear optimal-stopping control problem; a formulation that does not require a prior knowledge of time taken to perform the avoidance and return-to-course manoeuvre. A dynamic programming solution to the avoidance and return-to-course problem is presented, before a Markov chain numerical approximation technique is described. Simulation results are presented that illustrate the proposed collision avoidance and return-to-course flight approach.

Optimal online prediction in adversarial environments

In many prediction problems, including those that arise in computer security and computational finance, the process generating the data is best modelled as an adversary with whom the predictor competes. Even decision problems that are not inherently adversarial can be usefully modeled in this way, since the assumptions are sufficiently weak that effective prediction strategies for adversarial settings are very widely applicable.

Optimal online prediction in adversarial environments

In many prediction problems, including those that arise in computer security and computational finance, the process generating the data is best modelled as an adversary with whom the predictor competes. Even decision problems that are not inherently adversarial can be usefully modeled in this way, since the assumptions are sufficiently weak that effective prediction strategies for adversarial settings are very widely applicable.