Exceptionally Long Distance Transport of Volcanic Ash: Implications for Stratigraphy, Hazards and the Sourcing of Distal Tephra Deposits

Cryptotephras (tephra not visible to the naked eye) form the foundation of the tephrostratigraphic frameworks used in Europe to date and correlate widely distributed geologic, paleoenvironmental and archaeological records. Pyne-O'Donnell et al. (2012) established the potential for developing a similar crypto-tephrostratigraphy across eastern North America by identifying multiple tephra, including the White River Ash (east; WRAe), St. Helens We and East Lake, in a peat core located in Newfoundland. Following on from this work, several ongoing projects have examined additional peat cores from Michigan, New York State, Maine, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland to build a tephrostratigraphic framework for this region. Using the precedent set by recent research by Jensen et al.(in press) that correlated the Alaskan WRAe to the European cryptotephra AD860B, unknown tephras identified in this work were not necessarily assumed to be from "expected" source areas (e.g. the Cascades). Here we present several examples of the preservation of tephra layers with an intercontinental distribution (i.e. WRAe and Ksudach 1), from relatively small magnitude events (i.e. St. Helens layer T, Mono Crater), and the first example of a Mexican ash in the NE (Volcan Ceboruco, Jala pumice). There are several implications of the identification of these units. These far-travelled ashes: (1) highlight the need to consider "ultra" distal source volcanoes for unknown cryptotephra deposits,. (2) present an opportunity for physical volcanologists to examine why some eruptions have an exceptional distribution of ash that is not necessarily controlled by the magnitude of the event. (3) complicate the idea of using tephrostratigraphic frameworks to understand the frequency of eruptions towards aiding hazard planning and prediction (e.g. Swindles et al., 2011). (4) show that there is a real potential to link tropical and mid to high-latitude paleoenvironmental records. Jensen et al. (in press) Transatlantic correlation of the Alaskan White River Ash. Geology. Pyne-O'Donnell et al. (2012). High-precision ultra-distal Holocene tephrochronology in North America. Quaternary Science Reviews, 52, 6-11. Swindles et al. (2011). A 7000 yr perspective on volcanic ash clouds affecting northern Europe. Geology, 39, 887-890.

Seaborne trade and the commercialisation of fifteenth- and sixteenth-century Gaelic Ulster

This study considers the frequently stated claim that the economy of Gaelic- speaking lordships in Ulster during the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries was predominately pastoral anduncommercialised, by drawing on a variety of sources not usually combined. It proposes that the increased European demand for fish and the growth of the fish industry across northern Europe played a crucial role in stimulating trade between the coastal areas of Ulster on the one hand, and Britain and continental Europe on the other. This led to the establishment of permanent markets and towns, which joined at least two new inland towns in the southern parts of the province, bringing about a commercial presence in most of the Ulster lordships before 1600. Gaelic Lords consolidated this development by building castles and friaries at these fixed trading places.

Upgrading of suberin from cork and birch outer bark

O trabalho aqui apresentado teve como principal propósito o estudo do potencial da suberina como fonte de produtos de química fina e como precursor de novos materiais macromoleculares de origem renovável. O interesse na suberina reside, não só na sua ubiquidade e nas suas propriedades únicas em termos de composição química e hidrofobicidade, mas também no facto de ser um dos principais componentes macromoleculares dos subprodutos da indústria corticeira de Quercus suber L. no Sul da Europa, e da indústria de pasta de papel do Norte da Europa, que utiliza a Betula pendula Roth como matéria-prima. A primeira parte do presente trabalho consistiu no estudo detalhado da composição química da cortiça de Quercus suber L. e respectivos resíduos industriais bem como da casca de Betula pendula Roth recorrendo a diferentes técnicas de caracterização, nomeadamente GC-MS, IV, RMN de 1H e de 13C, DSC, termomicroscopia, TGA e difracção de raios-X. Os resultados mostraram que os produtos de despolimerização da suberina representam tipicamente uma fracção substancial de todas as amostras. Para além da suberina, foram também identificados nas diversas amostras quantidades variáveis de compostos triterpénicos, lenhina, polissacarídeos e matéria inorgânica. Os principais resultados da análise por GC-MS mostraram que todas as amostras de suberina despolimerizada são fontes abundantes de ω-hidroxiácidos e de ácidos dicarboxílicos, bem como dos correspondentes derivados epóxidados. No entanto, as quantidades relativas de cada componente identificado foram significativamente diferentes entre amostras. Por exemplo, em amostras de suberina da casca de Quercus suber L. isoladas por metanólise alcalina o composto maioritário encontrado foi o ácido 22-hidroxidocosanóico, enquanto que a suberina também proveniente da cortiça, mas isolada por hidrólise alcalina era composta maioritariamente pelo ácido 9,10-dihidroxioctadecanóico. Já no caso da amostra de suberina despolimerizada proveniente da casca externa da bétula o composto identificado como mais abundante foi o ácido 9,10-epoxi-18-hidroxioctadecanóico. A caracterização das diversas amostras de suberina despolimerizada por FTIR e RMN de 1H e de 13C foram concordantes com os resultados de GC-MS, evidenciando a sua natureza predominantemente lipofílica. Foi ainda determinada a razão entre os grupos CO2H/OH e CO2CH3/OH por RMN de 1H das amostras convenientemente derivatizadas com isocianato de tricloroacetilo, verificando-se que a suberina despolimerizada possuía quantidades não-estequiométricas destes grupos funcionais. A investigação do comportamento térmico das amostras de suberina despolimerizada, por DSC e termomicroscopia, bem como a análise por difracção de raios-X, permitiu concluir que algumas amostras de suberina despolimerizada possuíam importantes domínios cristalinos e pontos de fusão bem definidos, tipicamente próximos de 70 oC, enquanto outras amostras eram essencialmente amorfa. Factores como a fonte de suberina ou as condições de despolimerização estiveram na origem destas diferenças. iv Neste trabalho estudaram-se também os extractáveis lipofílicos da cortiça e dos seus resíduos industriais, em particular os do pó industrial de cortiça e dos condensados negros, mostrando que os extractáveis lipofílicos são uma fonte abundante de compostos triterpénicos, em particular de ácido betulínico e de friedelina. Foram ainda identificadas fracções abundantes de ω-hidroxiácidos e de ácidos dicarboxílicos no condensado negro. A segunda parte deste trabalho abordou a síntese e a caracterização de novos poliésteres alifáticos derivados de suberina. Estes materiais foram sintetizados utilizando, quer misturas de suberina despolimerizada, quer monómeros modelo estruturalmente análogos aos existentes na suberina. Recorreu-se para o efeito a duas aproximações distintas de polimerização por passos, a policondensação e a politransesterificação. Procurou-se em simultâneo maximizar a eficiência da polimerização em termos de peso molecular e de extensão da reacção e utilizar condições de reacção de química “verdes”. Neste sentido, utilizou-se a policondensação em emulsão utilizando um tensioactivo como catalisador e a policondensação em massa utilizando a lipase B de Candida antarctica. Adicionalmente foram também testado os catalisadores trifluorometanosulfonato de bismuto(III) no caso da policondensação, e ainda os catalisadores clássicos óxido de antimónio(III) e o carbonato de potássio no caso da politransesterificação. Os poliésteres resultantes foram caracterizados através de várias técnicas, tais como IV, RMN (de 1H e de 13C), DSC, DMA, TGA, difracção de raios-X e medidas dos ângulos de contacto. Verificou-se que os catalisadores trifluorometanosulfonato de bismuto (III), óxido de antimónio(III) e carbonato de potássio conduziram aos rendimentos de isolamento dos polímeros resultantes mais elevados. No caso dos poliésteres derivados da suberina os resultados em termos de rendimentos e pesos moleculares sofreram um incremento substancial quando a estequiometria da reacção de polimerização foi adequadamente balanceada (r=1) com a adição de uma quantidade extra de um comonómero. Verificou-se a predominância de diferentes estruturas consoante a amostra de suberina utilizada e as condições de síntese adoptada, predominando as cadeias lineares ou então quantidades substanciais de estruturas reticuladas. Globalmente, este primeiro estudo sistemático da utilização de suberina como um precursor de novos poliésteres alifáticos confirmou o elevado potencial deste recurso abundante e renovável como precursor para preparar materiais macromoleculares.

Contribution of biomass combustion to air pollutant emissions

In Portugal, it was estimated that around 1.95 Mton/year of wood is used in residential wood burning for heating and cooking. Additionally, in the last decades, burnt forest area has also been increasing. These combustions result in high levels of toxic air pollutants and a large perturbation of atmospheric chemistry, interfere with climate and have adverse effects on health. Accurate quantification of the amounts of trace gases and particulate matter emitted from residential wood burning, agriculture and garden waste burning and forest fires on a regional and global basis is essential for various purposes, including: the investigation of several atmospheric processes, the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions, and quantification of the air pollution sources that affect human health at regional scales. In Southern Europe, data on detailed emission factors from biomass burning are rather inexistent. Emission inventories and source apportionment, photochemical and climate change models use default values obtained for US and Northern Europe biofuels. Thus, it is desirable to use more specific locally available data. The objective of this study is to characterise and quantify the contribution of biomass combustion sources to atmospheric trace gases and aerosol concentrations more representative of the national reality. Laboratory (residential wood combustion) and field (agriculture/garden waste burning and experimental wildland fires) sampling experiments were carried out. In the laboratory, after the selection of the most representative wood species and combustion equipment in Portugal, a sampling program to determine gaseous and particulate matter emission rates was set up, including organic and inorganic aerosol composition. In the field, the smoke plumes from agriculture/garden waste and experimental wildland fires were sampled. The results of this study show that the combustion equipment and biofuel type used have an important role in the emission levels and composition. Significant differences between the use of traditional combustion equipment versus modern equipments were also observed. These differences are due to higher combustion efficiency of modern equipment, reflecting the smallest amount of particulate matter, organic carbon and carbon monoxide released. With regard to experimental wildland fires in shrub dominated areas, it was observed that the largest organic fraction in the samples studied was mainly composed by vegetation pyrolysis products. The major organic components in the smoke samples were pyrolysates of vegetation cuticles, mainly comprising steradienes and sterol derivatives, carbohydrates from the breakdown of cellulose, aliphatic lipids from vegetation waxes and methoxyphenols from the lignin thermal degradation. Despite being a banned practice in our country, agriculture/garden waste burning is actually quite common. To assess the particulate matter composition, the smoke from three different agriculture/garden residues have been sampled into 3 different size fractions (PM2.5, PM2.5-10 and PM>10). Despite distribution patterns of organic compounds in particulate matter varied among residues, the amounts of phenolics (polyphenol and guaiacyl derivatives) and organic acids were always predominant over other organic compounds in the organosoluble fraction of smoke. Among biomarkers, levoglucosan, β-sitosterol and phytol were detected in appreciable amounts in the smoke of all agriculture/garden residues. In addition, inositol may be considered as an eventual tracer for the smoke from potato haulm burning. It was shown that the prevailing ambient conditions (such as high humidity in the atmosphere) likely contributed to atmospheric processes (e.g. coagulation and hygroscopic growth), which influenced the particle size characteristics of the smoke tracers, shifting their distribution to larger diameters. An assessment of household biomass consumption was also made through a national scale survey. The information obtained with the survey combined with the databases on emission factors from the laboratory and field tests allowed us to estimate the pollutant amounts emitted in each Portuguese district. In addition to a likely contribution to the improvement of emission inventories, emission factors obtained for tracer compounds in this study can be applied in receptor models to assess the contribution of biomass burning to the levels of atmospheric aerosols and their constituents obtained in monitoring campaigns in Mediterranean Europe.

Competitive destination analysis in Southern European countries

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the competitiveness of the European Union Member States of Southern Europe (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) as tourist destinations for European Union Member States of Central and Northern Europe (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany, The Netherlands, Ireland, Sweden and the UK). Design/methodology/approach – Application of the market share analysis tool, initially developed by Faulkner, using secondary data from Eurostat – statistical office of the European communities. Findings – The results obtained show that France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain present distinct levels of competitiveness for the various generating countries, with changes having occurred in the period between 1999 and 2007. Originality/value – The paper offers refreshment of Faulkner's tool and an insight into tourist flows in Europe as a tool for tourism and hospitality managers.

Phylogeography and hybridisation in the european polecat : (mustela putorius)

Tese de doutoramento, Biologia (Biologia da Conservação), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2014

O tempo das reformas : o papel da companhia de Jesus no enfrentamento com ideais protestantes na Europa do Sul : uma proposta pedagógica

Relatório da prática de ensino supervisionada, Mestrado em Ensino da História e da Geografia no 3º Ciclo do Ensino Básico e no Ensino Secundário, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014

Can the European low-cost airline boom continue? Implications for regional airports

At a time when the traditional major airlines have struggled to remain viable, the low-cost carriers have become the major success story of the European airline industry. This paper looks behind the headlines to show that although low-cost airlines have achieved much, they too have potential weaknesses and face a number of challenges in the years ahead. The secondary and regional airports that have benefited from low-cost carrier expansion are shown to be vulnerable to future changes in airline economics, government policy and patterns of air service. An analysis of routes from London demonstrates that the low-cost airlines have been more successful in some markets than others. To attractive and historically under-served leisure destinations in Southern Europe they have stimulated dramatic growth and achieved a dominant position. To major hub cities however they typically remain marginal players and to secondary points in Northern Europe their traffic has been largely diverted from existing operators. There is also evidence that the UK market is becoming saturated and new low-cost services are poaching traffic from other low-cost routes. Passenger compensation legislation and possible environmental taxes will hit the low-cost airline industry disproportionately hard. The high elasticities of demand to price in certain markets that these airlines have exploited will operate in reverse. One of the major elements of the low-cost business model involves the use of smaller uncongested airports. These offer faster turn-arounds and lower airport charges. In many cases, local and regional government has been willing to subsidise expansion of air services to assist with economic development or tourism objectives. However, recent court cases against Ryanair now threaten these financial arrangements. The paper also examines the catchment areas for airports with low-cost service. It is shown that as well as stimulating local demand, much traffic is captured from larger markets nearby through the differential in fare levels. This has implications for surface transport, as access to these regional airports often involves long journeys by private car. Consideration is then given to the feasibility of low-cost airlines expanding into the long-haul market or to regional operations with small aircraft. Many of the cost advantages are more muted on intercontinental services.

Portuguese footwear

This case study deals with the reasons why the Portuguese Footwear Cluster evolved from a small industry focused on the Portuguese internal market into a high-tech industry capable of designing and producing some of the best and most expensive shoes in the world. It went from using the low labor costs of an under-developed economy to produce long series of shoes for pre-designated brands in Northern Europe to having the ability to produce some of the highest quality shoes in the world, in small orders, designed and delivered in record timing, while offering a service of excellence. In 1960, when Portugal became a founding member of EFTA, the footwear industry in Portugal was globally irrelevant, producing low quality shoes directed to the puny internal market and its African colonies. The new free trade zone with economies much more developed that itself, led to the transfer of the labor-intensive, low skilled manufacture from the UK and Scandinavian countries to Portugal. Mostly through joint ventures, the industry was able to mechanize itself so it could produce shoes in long series at low prices. It grew based on that model up until the 1990s, when the emergence of the Asian countries meant either a different strategy or extinction. Taking advantage of a clarified leadership of its trade association, it used the European funds made available to it during the 1990s, to modernize its factory floors, so it could become more nimble and flexible, expand its design capabilities and dramatically change its image abroad. The role of the trade association, APICCAPS, was instrumental throughout the process going well beyond what came to be expected of trade associations. It used its privileged position to provide understanding regarding the current situation and competitive landscape, alerting for changes ahead and at the same time providing a strategic vision on how to deal with the challenges. Moreover, it helped companies get the resources they needed by creating a research center in collaboration with a University, by creating a process that allowed companies to learn from each other via the show casing of projects sponsored by the association or by helping industrials traveling to locations where new customers could be found. The case study provides insight on how the trade association leadership, which has no formal authority over its members, was able to guide and motivate an industry through a consistent positive approach. That approach focused on the solutions, on the opportunities and on the success stories of companies in the cluster rather than on what was wrong or needed to be addressed. Based on this case, one could use the leadership role of the trade association to discuss and change leaders’ roles and styles in other sectors or even companies.

Medication use in pregnancy: a cross-sectional, multinational web-based study.

OBJECTIVES: Intercountry comparability between studies on medication use in pregnancy is difficult due to dissimilarities in study design and methodology. This study aimed to examine patterns and factors associated with medications use in pregnancy from a multinational perspective, with emphasis on type of medication utilised and indication for use. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, web-based study performed within the period from 1 October 2011 to 29 February 2012. Uniform collection of drug utilisation data was performed via an anonymous online questionnaire. SETTING: Multinational study in Europe (Western, Northern and Eastern), North and South America and Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant women and new mothers with children less than 1 year of age. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of and factors associated with medication use for acute/short-term illnesses, chronic/long-term disorders and over-the-counter (OTC) medication use. RESULTS: The study population included 9459 women, of which 81.2% reported use of at least one medication (prescribed or OTC) during pregnancy. Overall, OTC medication use occurred in 66.9% of the pregnancies, whereas 68.4% and 17% of women reported use of at least one medication for treatment of acute/short-term illnesses and chronic/long-term disorders, respectively. The extent of self-reported medicated illnesses and types of medication used by indication varied across regions, especially in relation to urinary tract infections, depression or OTC nasal sprays. Women with higher age or lower educational level, housewives or women with an unplanned pregnancy were those most often reporting use of medication for chronic/long-term disorders. Immigrant women in Western (adjusted OR (aOR): 0.55, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.87) and Northern Europe (aOR: 0.50, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.83) were less likely to report use of medication for chronic/long-term disorders during pregnancy than non-immigrants. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the majority of women in Europe, North America, South America and Australia used at least one medication during pregnancy. There was a substantial inter-region variability in the types of medication used.

Les routes d’invasion du criocère du lis (Lilioceris lilii) en Amérique du Nord

Le criocère du lis, Lilioceris lilii (Coleoptera : Chrysomelidae), un ravageur de lis et de fritillaires d’origine eurasienne, a été observé pour la première fois en Amérique du Nord en 1943 sur l’Ile de Montréal au Canada. Après y avoir été confiné pendant environ 25 années, ce coléoptère a par la suite progressé rapidement sur le territoire nord-américain. Actuellement, on l’observe dans huit provinces canadiennes et huit états américains. Cette étude a investigué les routes d’invasion utilisées par le criocère du lis au Canada et aux États- Unis avec l’aide de marqueurs génétiques AFLP. Pour ce faire, 516 individus parmi 34 sites en Amérique du Nord et en Europe ont été échantillonnés et analysés. Le premier objectif était de déterminer, en analysant la structure génétique des populations nord-américains, s’il y avait eu une ou plusieurs introductions en provenance d’Europe. Le deuxième objectif était d’identifier l’origine de la ou des populations introduites en Amérique du Nord. Finalement, le troisième objectif consistait à proposer un scénario d’invasion de L. lilii en Amérique du Nord basé sur les données de première mention et de structure génétique des populations échantillonnées. Les résultats démontrent une signature génétique distincte entre les criocères du lis du Canada et ceux des États-Unis, suggérant ainsi deux sources d’introductions indépendantes en Amérique du Nord, soit une première introduction à Montréal, Québec, dans les années 1940 et une seconde aux États-Unis au début des années 1990 à Cambridge, Massachusetts. De plus, les deux populations nord-américaines semblent provenir de différentes régions du nord de l’Europe, ce qui est conséquent avec le scénario suggérant deux sources d’introductions indépendantes. Chacune des populations aurait par la suite progressé respectivement dans leur pays d’introduction selon une dispersion de type stratifiée. En effet, la progression continue de L. lilii dans certaines régions suggère une dispersion naturelle de l’espèce sur le territoire nord-américain, alors que la progression rapide sur de longues distances semble être causée par le transport anthropique de lis contaminés.

Asma ocupacional en peluquería: una revisión de la literatura

Este artículo pretende realizar una revisión de la literatura vigente acerca del asma ocupacional secundaria a la exposición de los factores de riesgo identificados en peluquería. Se realizó una búsqueda sistemática en las bases de datos PubMed y Cochrane de artículos de revistas indexadas con las palabras claves “Asthma occupational, hairdressers, hairdresser, work related asthma”. Aplicando los criterios de selección descritos, se revisaron 26 artículos en total donde se incluían reportes de casos, estudios de prevalencia, incidencia, corte transversa y revisiones, abarcando principalmente los temas de epidemiologia, fisiopatología, diagnóstico y prevención. Se agruparon según la metodología PRISMA para su respectiva comparación. Se concluyó que a pesar de la importancia de esta patología en el sector de peluquería, existen factores asociados como la informalidad del sector, la falta de estudios de investigación originales de cohorte o el desconocimiento de un protocolo claro de diagnóstico en este tipo de trabajadores, que limitan datos concluyentes acerca de la misma. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los autores concluye la relación entre la patología y la labor de peluquería, así falte esclarecer los mecanismos fisiopatológicos relacionados con los alérgenos identificados.

Intra-Euro rebalancing is inevitable, but insufficient. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/15, August 2012

Greece, Portugal and Spain face a serious risk of external solvency due to their close to minus 100 percent of GDP net negative international investment positions, which are largely composed of debt. The perceived inability of these countries to rebalance their external positions is a major root of the euro crisis. Intra-euro rebalancing through declines in unit labour costs (ULC) in southern Europe, and ULC increases in northern Europe should continue, but has limits because: The share of intra-euro trade has declined. Intra-euro trade balances have already adjusted to a great extent. The intra-euro real exchange rates of Greece, Portugal and Spain have also either already adjusted or do not indicate significant appreciations since 2000. There are only two main current account surplus countries, Germany and the Netherlands. A purely intra-euro adjustment strategy would require too-significant wage increases in northern countries and wage declines in southern countries, which do not seem to be feasible. Before the crisis, the euro was significantly overvalued despite the close-to balanced current account position. The euro has depreciated recently, but more is needed to support the extra-euro trade of southern euro-area members. A weaker euro would also boost exports, growth, inflation and wage increases in Germany, thereby helping further intra-euro adjustment and the survival of the euro.

Flight periodicity and the vertical distribution of high-altitude moth migration over southern Britain

The continuous operation of insect-monitoring radars in the UK has permitted, for the first time, the characterization of various phenomena associated with high-altitude migration of large insects over this part of northern Europe. Previous studies have taken a case-study approach, concentrating on a small number of nights of particular interest. Here, combining data from two radars, and from an extensive suction- and light-trapping network, we have undertaken a more systematic, longer-term study of diel flight periodicity and vertical distribution of macro-insects in the atmosphere. Firstly, we identify general features of insect abundance and stratification, occurring during the 24-hour cycle, which emerge from four years’ aggregated radar data for the summer months in southern Britain. These features include mass emigrations at dusk and to a lesser extent at dawn, and daytime concentrations associated with thermal convection. We then focus our attention on the well-defined layers of large nocturnal migrants that form in the early evening, usually at heights of 200–500 m above ground. We present evidence from both radar and trap data that these nocturnal layers are composed mainly of noctuid moths, with species such as Noctua pronuba, Autographa gamma, Agrotis exclamationis, A. segetum, Xestia c-nigrum and Phlogophora meticulosa predominating.

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO2 concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO2 emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.