Decision support for the safe design and operation of unmanned aircraft systems

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) describe a diverse range of aircraft that are operated without a human pilot on-board. Unmanned aircraft range from small rotorcraft, which can fit in the palm of your hand, through to fixed wing aircraft comparable in size to that of a commercial passenger jet. The absence of a pilot on-board allows these aircraft to be developed with unique performance capabilities facilitating a wide range of applications in surveillance, environmental management, agriculture, defence, and search and rescue. However, regulations relating to the safe design and operation of UAS first need to be developed before the many potential benefits from these applications can be realised. According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a Risk Management Process (RMP) should support all civil aviation policy and rulemaking activities (ICAO 2009). The RMP is described in International standard, ISO 31000:2009 (ISO, 2009a). This standard is intentionally generic and high-level, providing limited guidance on how it can be effectively applied to complex socio-technical decision problems such as the development of regulations for UAS. Through the application of principles and tools drawn from systems philosophy and systems engineering, this thesis explores how the RMP can be effectively applied to support the development of safety regulations for UAS. A sound systems-theoretic foundation for the RMP is presented in this thesis. Using the case-study scenario of a UAS operation over an inhabited area and through the novel application of principles drawn from general systems modelling philosophy, a consolidated framework of the definitions of the concepts of: safe, risk and hazard is made. The framework is novel in that it facilitates the representation of broader subjective factors in an assessment of the safety of a system; describes the issues associated with the specification of a system-boundary; makes explicit the hierarchical nature of the relationship between the concepts and the subsequent constraints that exist between them; and can be evaluated using a range of analytic or deliberative modelling techniques. Following the general sequence of the RMP, the thesis explores the issues associated with the quantified specification of safety criteria for UAS. A novel risk analysis tool is presented. In contrast to existing risk tools, the analysis tool presented in this thesis quantifiably characterises both the societal and individual risk of UAS operations as a function of the flight path of the aircraft. A novel structuring of the risk evaluation and risk treatment decision processes is then proposed. The structuring is achieved through the application of the Decision Support Problem Technique; a modelling approach that has been previously used to effectively model complex engineering design processes and to support decision-making in relation to airspace design. The final contribution made by this thesis is in the development of an airworthiness regulatory framework for civil UAS. A novel "airworthiness certification matrix" is proposed as a basis for the definition of UAS "Part 21" regulations. The outcome airworthiness certification matrix provides a flexible, systematic and justifiable method for promulgating airworthiness regulations for UAS. In addition, an approach for deriving "Part 1309" regulations for UAS is presented. In contrast to existing approaches, the approach presented in this thesis facilitates a traceable and objective tailoring of system-level reliability requirements across the diverse range of UAS operations. The significance of the research contained in this thesis is clearly demonstrated by its practical real world outcomes. Industry regulatory development groups and the Civil Aviation Safety Authority have endorsed the proposed airworthiness certification matrix. The risk models have also been used to support research undertaken by the Australian Department of Defence. Ultimately, it is hoped that the outcomes from this research will play a significant part in the shaping of regulations for civil UAS, here in Australia and around the world.

Sensor Data Integrity : Multi-Sensor Perception for Unmanned Ground Vehicles

This document describes large, accurately calibrated and time-synchronised datasets, gathered in controlled environmental conditions, using an unmanned ground vehicle equipped with a wide variety of sensors. These sensors include: multiple laser scanners, a millimetre wave radar scanner, a colour camera and an infra-red camera. Full details of the sensors are given, as well as the calibration parameters needed to locate them with respect to each other and to the platform. This report also specifies the format and content of the data, and the conditions in which the data have been gathered. The data collection was made in two different situations of the vehicle: static and dynamic. The static tests consisted of sensing a fixed ’reference’ terrain, containing simple known objects, from a motionless vehicle. For the dynamic tests, data were acquired from a moving vehicle in various environments, mainly rural, including an open area, a semi-urban zone and a natural area with different types of vegetation. For both categories, data have been gathered in controlled environmental conditions, which included the presence of dust, smoke and rain. Most of the environments involved were static, except for a few specific datasets which involve the presence of a walking pedestrian. Finally, this document presents illustrations of the effects of adverse environmental conditions on sensor data, as a first step towards reliability and integrity in autonomous perceptual systems.

Real-time wind speed estimation and compensation for improved flight

This paper presents the development and experimental validation of a prototype system for online estimation and compensation of wind disturbances onboard small Rotorcraft unmanned aerial systems (RUAS). The proposed approach consists of integrating a small pitot-static system onboard the vehicle and using simple but effective algorithms for estimating the wind speed in real time. The baseline flight controller has been augmented with a feed-forward term to compensate for these wind disturbances, thereby improving the flight performance of small RUAS in windy conditions. The paper also investigates the use of online airspeed measurements in a closed-loop for controlling the RUAS forward motion without the aid of a global positioning system (GPS). The results of more than 80 flights with a RUAS confirm the validity of our approach.

On the positivity and stability of non-stationary systems

The positivity of operators in Hilbert spaces is an important concept finding wide application in various branches of Mathematical System Theory. A frequency- domain condition that ensures the positivity of time-varying operators in L2 with a state-space description, is derived in this paper by using certain newly developed inequalities concerning the input-state relation of such operators. As an interesting application of these results, an L2 stability criterion for time-varying feedback systems consisting of a finite-sector non-linearity is also developed.

Testing and Modeling of MR Damper and Its Application to SDOF Systems Using Integral Backstepping Technique

Magnetorheological dampers are intrinsically nonlinear devices, which make the modeling and design of a suitable control algorithm an interesting and challenging task. To evaluate the potential of magnetorheological (MR) dampers in control applications and to take full advantages of its unique features, a mathematical model to accurately reproduce its dynamic behavior has to be developed and then a proper control strategy has to be taken that is implementable and can fully utilize their capabilities as a semi-active control device. The present paper focuses on both the aspects. First, the paper reports the testing of a magnetorheological damper with an universal testing machine, for a set of frequency, amplitude, and current. A modified Bouc-Wen model considering the amplitude and input current dependence of the damper parameters has been proposed. It has been shown that the damper response can be satisfactorily predicted with this model. Second, a backstepping based nonlinear current monitoring of magnetorheological dampers for semi-active control of structures under earthquakes has been developed. It provides a stable nonlinear magnetorheological damper current monitoring directly based on system feedback such that current change in magnetorheological damper is gradual. Unlike other MR damper control techniques available in literature, the main advantage of the proposed technique lies in its current input prediction directly based on system feedback and smooth update of input current. Furthermore, while developing the proposed semi-active algorithm, the dynamics of the supplied and commanded current to the damper has been considered. The efficiency of the proposed technique has been shown taking a base isolated three story building under a set of seismic excitation. Comparison with widely used clipped-optimal strategy has also been shown.

Pollinator limitation and the effect of breeding systems on plant reproduction in forest fragments

Reproduction of plants in fragmented habitats may be limited because of lower diversity or abundance of pollinators, and/or variation in local plant density. We assessed natural fruit set and pollinator limitation in ten species of woody plants in natural and restored fragments in the Pondicherry region of southern India, to see whether breeding system of plants (self-compatible and self-incompatible) affected fruit set. We tested whether the number of flowering individuals in the fragments affected the fruit set and further examined the adult and sapling densities of self-compatible (SC) and self-incompatible (SI) species. We measured the natural level of fruit set and pollinator limitation (calculated as the difference in fruit set between hand cross-pollinated and naturally pollinated flowers). Our results demonstrate that there was a higher level of pollinator limitation and hence lower levels of natural fruit set in self-incompatible species as compared to self-compatible species. However, the hand cross-pollinated flowers in SC and SI species produced similar levels of fruit set,further indicating that lower fruit set was due to pollinator limitation and not due to lack of cross-compatible individuals in the fragments. There was no significant relation between number of flowering individuals and the levels of natural fruit set, except for two species Derris ovalifolia, Ixora pavetta. In these species the natural fruit set decreased with increasing population size, again indicating pollinator limitation. The adult and sapling densities in self-compatible species were significantly higher than inself-incompatible species. These findings indicate that the low reproductive output in self-incompatible species may eventually lead to lower population sizes. Restoration of pollinator services along with plant species in fragmented habitats is important for the long-term conservation of biodiversity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Evaluating ILS and MLS Sites without Flight Tests

Instrument landing systems (ILS) and the upcoming microwave landing systems (MLS) are (or are planned to be) very important navigational aids at most major airports of the world. However, their performance is directly affected by the features of the site in which they are located. Currently, validation of the ILS performance is through costly and time-consuming experimental methods. This paper outlines a powerful and versatile analytical approach for performing the site evaluation, as an alternative to the experimental methods. The approach combines a multi-plate model for the terrain with a powerful and exhaustive ray-tracing technique and a versatile and accurate formulation for estimating the electromagnetic fields due to the array antenna in the presence of the terrain. It can model the effects of the undulation, the roughness and the impedance (depending on the soil type) of the terrain at the site. The results computed from the analytical method are compared with the actual measurements and good agreement is shown. Considerations for site effects on MLS are also outlined.

Variability of sif and cod of stochastic structural systems

Stochastic structural systems having a stochastic distribution of material properties and stochastic external loadings in space are analysed when a crack of deterministic size is present. The material properties and external loadings are considered to constitute independent, two-dimensional, univariate, real, homogeneous stochastic fields. The stochastic fields are characterized by their means, variances, autocorrelation functions or the equivalent power spectral density functions, and scale fluctuations. The Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio are treated to be stochastic quantities. The external loading is treated to be a stochastic field in space. The energy release rate is derived using the method of virtual crack extension. The deterministic relationship is derived to represent the sensitivities of energy release rate with respect to both virtual crack extension and real system parameter fluctuations. Taylor series expansion is used and truncation is made to the first order. This leads to the determination of second-order properties of the output quantities to the first order. Using the linear perturbations about the mean values of the output quantities, the statistical information about the energy release rates, SIF and crack opening displacements are obtained. Both plane stress and plane strain cases are considered. The general expressions for the SIF in all the three fracture modes are derived and a more detailed analysis is conducted for a mode I situation. A numerical example is given.

Investigation of transient process and steady output of lasing without inversion

The transient evolution processes and steady outputs of continuous wave lasing without inversion (LWI) and self-pulsing LWI in a resonant open V type three-level system are studied. It was found that the two kinds of LWI have some obvious differences not only from the steady outputs but also from the transient evolution processes. The effects of the unsaturated gain coefficient, cavity loss coefficient, ratio of the atomic injection rates and atomic exit rate on the transient evolution processes and steady outputs are discussed.

Spatio-temporal changes in annual accumulated temperature in China and the effects on cropping systems, 1980s to 2000

Change in thermal conditions can substantially affect crop growth, cropping systems, agricultural production and land use. In the present study, we used annual accumulated temperatures > 10 degrees C (AAT10) as an indicator to investigate the spatio-temporal changes in thermal conditions across China from the late 1980s to 2000, with a spatial resolution of 1 x 1 km. We also investigated the effects of the spatio-temporal changes on cultivated land use and cropping systems. We found that AAT10 has increased on a national scale since the late 1980s, Particularly, 3.16 x 10(5) km(2) of land moved from the spring wheat zone (AAT10: 1600 to 3400 degrees C) to the winter wheat zone (AAT10: 3400 to 4500 degrees C). Changes in thermal conditions had large influences on cultivated land area and cropping systems. The areas of cultivated land have increased in regions with increasing AAT10, and the cropping rotation index has increased since the late 1980s. Single cropping was replaced by 3 crops in 2 years in many regions, and areas of winter wheat cultivation were shifted northward in some areas, such as in the eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and in western Liaoning and Jilin Provinces.

AND Logic Gates Based on Small Molecules with Chemical Inputs and Luminescence Output

AND logic gate behaviour can be recognized in chemical-responsive luminescence phenomena concerning small molecules. Though initial developments concerned separate and distinguishable chemical species as inputs, consideration of other types of input sets allows substantial expansion of the sub-field. Dissection of these molecular devices into modules, where possible, enables analysis of their logic behaviour according to supramolecular photochemical mechanisms.

The importance of moisture distribution for the growth and energetics of mid-latitude systems

A primitive equation model is used to study the sensitivity of baroclinic wave life cycles to the initial latitude-height distribution of humidity. Diabatic heating is parametrized only as a consequence of condensation in regions of large-scale ascent. Experiments are performed in which the initial relative humidity is a simple function of model level, and in some cases latitude bands are specified which are initially relatively dry. It is found that the presence of moisture can either increase or decrease the peak eddy kinetic energy of the developing wave, depending on the initial moisture distribution. A relative abundance of moisture at mid-latitudes tends to weaken the wave, while a relative abundance at low latitudes tends to strengthen it. This sensitivity exists because competing processes are at work. These processes are described in terms of energy box diagnostics. The most realistic case lies on the cusp of this sensitivity. Further physical parametrizations are then added, including surface fluxes and upright moist convection. These have the effect of increasing wave amplitude, but the sensitivity to initial conditions of relative humidity remains. Finally, 'control' and 'doubled CO2' life cycles are performed, with initial conditions taken from the time-mean zonal-mean output of equilibrium GCM experiments. The attenuation of the wave resulting from reduced baroclinicity is more pronounced than any effect due to changes in initial moisture.

Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centres are increasingly using the meteorological output from these to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state-of-the-art operational large scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Currently, operational systems have the capability to produce coarse-scale discharge forecasts in the medium-range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products, in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale, alongside a move towards multi-model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction.