The income distribution problem in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Changes in the distribution of income and the New Economic Model in Colombia

Includes bibliography

Structural change and domestic technological capabilities

Includes bibliography

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Regional growth, structural change, and natural disaster

Hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and other serious natural hazards have been attributed with causing changes in regional economic growth, income, employment, and wealth. Natural disasters are said to cause; (1) an acceleration of existing economic trends; (2) an expansion of employment and income, due to recovery operations (the so-called silver lining); and (3) an alteration in the structure of regional economic activity due to changes in "intra" and "inter" regional trading patterns, and technological change.^ Theoretical and stylized disaster simulations (Cochrane 1975; Haas, Cochrane, and Kates 1977; Petak et al. 1982; Ellson et al. 1983, 1984; Boisvert 1992; Brookshire and McKee 1992) point towards a wide scope of possible negative and long lasting impacts upon economic activity and structure. This work examines the consequences of Hurricane Andrew on Dade County's economy. Following the work of Ellson et al. (1984), Guimaraes et al. (1993), and West and Lenze (1993; 1994), a regional econometric forecasting model (DCEFM) using a framework of "with" and "without" the hurricane is constructed and utilized to assess Hurricane Andrew's impact on the structure and level of economic activity in Dade County, Florida.^ The results of the simulation exercises show that the direct economic impact associated with Hurricane Andrew on Dade County is of short duration, and of isolated sectoral impact, with impact generally limited to construction, TCP (transportation, communications, and public utilities), and agricultural sectors. Regional growth, and changes in income and employment reacted directly to, and within the range and direction set by national economic activity. The simulations also lead to the conclusion that areal extent, infrastructure, and sector specific damages or impacts, as opposed to monetary losses, are the primary determinants of a disaster's effects upon employment, income, growth, and economic structure. ^

The determinants of international equity and bond investment

The purpose of this research is fourfold. First, to investigate whether the determinants of international equity investment differ between investors with different degrees of information, experience and sophistication. For this purpose, the determinants of international equity investment of institutional and noninstitutional investors from 20 OECD countries, in the period 2001-2009, were analysed and compared. The results show that there are significant differences in the determinants of international equity investment between institutional and noninstitutional investors. Particularly, noninstitutional investors exhibit a more pronounced preference for equities of geographical nearby, contiguous and more transparent countries than institutional investors, suggesting that the effect of information costs and familiarity on international equity investment is stronger for less informed, experienced and sophisticated investors. Moreover, the preference for more developed equity markets and the contrarian behaviour are more severe for noninstitutional investors. Hence, the heterogeneity of institutional and noninstitutional investors in international equity investment is not negligible and therefore should be taken into account. Second, to investigate whether the determinants of international bond investment differ between investors with different degrees of information, experience and sophistication. For this purpose, the determinants of international bond investment of institutional and noninstitutional investors from 20 OECD countries, in the period 2001-2009, were analysed and compared. The results show that there are few significant differences in the determinants of international bond investment between institutional and noninstitutional investors. Particularly, the preference for bonds of more transparent countries and the return chasing behaviour are more pronounced for noninstitutional investors, whereas the preference for bonds with lower risk diversification potential is more pronounced for institutional investors. Hence, not only the results for international bond investment do not allow to support (or reject) the argument that information costs and familiarity are more important for less informed, experienced and sophisticated investors, but also they are contrary to the idea that financial variables, namely return and risk diversification, are more important for more informed, experienced and sophisticated investors. Third, to investigate whether the determinants of international equity investment differ from the determinants of international bond investment. For this purpose, the determinants of both international equity and bond investment of institutional and noninstitutional investors from 20 OECD countries, in the period 2001-2009, were analysed and compared. The results show that, although the effect of information costs on international equity investment tends to be stronger than on international bond investment, the differences between assets are not usually statistically significant, especially when the influence of financial variables is taken into account. Hence, it is not possible to conclude that international equity investment is much more information intensive than international bond investment, as suggested by Gehrig (1993) and Portes, Rey and Oh (2001), among others. Fourth, to investigate whether the flight to quality phenomenon is also observable in international investment and whether the flight to quality phenomenon is more pronounced for more sophisticated than for less sophisticated investors. For this purpose, a two-factor and three-factor ANOVA models, respectively, were applied to the international equity and bond investment of institutional and noninstitutional investors from 20 OECD countries in the period 2001-2009. The results suggest that the flight to quality phenomenon is also observable in international investment, as a change from business cycle of expansion to recession causes investors to significantly decrease the average weight invested in more risky assets (equities) and increase the average weight invested in less risky assets (bonds). The results also show that the variation on the average weight assigned to each type of asset, due to changes in business cycles, is significantly stronger for institutional investors than for noninstitutional investors, thereby suggesting that the flight to quality phenomenon is more pronounced for more sophisticated than for less sophisticated investors.

Building a knowledge and learning society in Portugal: adult students in technological schools and higher education institutions

Lifelong learning (LLL) has received increasing attention in recent years. It implies that learning should take place at all stages of the “life cycle and it should be life-wide, that is embedded in all life contexts from the school to the work place, the home and the community” (Green, 2002, p.613). The ‘learning society’, is the vision of a society where there are recognized opportunities for learning for every person, wherever they are and however old they happen to be. Globalization and the rise of new information technologies are some of the driving forces that cause depreciation of specialised competences. This happens very quickly in terms of economic value; consequently, workers of all skills levels, during their working life, must have the opportunity to update “their technical skills and enhance general skills to keep pace with continuous technological change and new job requirements” (Fahr, 2005, p. 75). It is in this context that LLL tops the policy agenda of international bodies, national governments and non-governmental organizations, in the field of education and training, to justify the need for LLL opportunities for the population as they face contemporary employability challenges. It is in this context that the requirement and interest to analyse the behaviour patterns of adult learners has developed over the last few years

Alternativas Processuais e Valorização de Correntes da Refinaria de Matosinhos.

Evolução, ato ou efeito de evoluir, sequência de transformações, desenvolvimento progressivo. Se tudo à nossa volta se transforma, a indústria tem de acompanhar esse sistema evolutivo, tornando assim imprescindível alterar ou melhorar processos de produção quando estes não se enquadram com a realidade, ou porque o mercado se altera, ou porque as necessidades mudam, ou por simplesmente ser mais rentável. Sendo a Galp Energia uma empresa que se encontra sempre na vanguarda da evolução tecnológica, encontra no Departamento de Engenharia Química do Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto um aliado na procura do melhor modo de valorizar os seus produtos. A Refinaria de Matosinhos tem atualmente duas correntes de gasolina leve e uma de refinado que apresentam grande potencialidade de valorização. Parte destas correntes incorporam atualmente a pool de nafta química da refinaria que é vendida à Repsol Polímeros. O desafio que é proposto baseia-se em valorizar essas correntes através da sua isomerização aumentando o seu RON podendo então ter como fim a pool de gasolinas. Tirando partido da tecnologia disponível para este efeito são apresentados quatro cenários de possíveis soluções. Sendo os dois primeiros excluídos por violarem restrições impostas, o terceiro e quarto cenários foram analisados de um ponto de vista económico. O terceiro cenário conduz a gasolina leve da Fábrica de Aromáticos para a pool de gasolinas sem qualquer tratamento e a gasolina leve da Fábrica de Combustíveis continua a integrar a pool de nafta química. O refinado da Fábrica de Aromáticos será enviado para um splitter, sendo a corrente de topo destinada à pool de nafta química e a corrente de fundo enviada a um reator de isomerização, Isomalk-4SM, passando previamente por uma torre de argila de forma a assegurar que a restrição em teor de olefinas no reator não é violada. O efluente, com RON maior, integrará igualmente a pool de gasolinas. No quarto cenário a corrente de refinado da Fábrica de Aromáticos não sofre qualquer tratamento, continuando a alimentar a unidade de solventes, a gasolina leve da Fábrica de Aromáticos irá diretamente para a pool de gasolinas e a gasolina leve da Fábrica de Combustíveis passará pelo Isomalk-2SM para aumentar o índice de octanos garantido assim ter condições de integrar a pool de gasolinas. Dissertação de Mestrado em Engenharia Química Isomerização de Gasolina Leve O terceiro cenário apresenta um aumento de 4 576 773 € anuais nas receitas e o quarto alcança 11 333 982 € anuais. O investimento inicial total do terceiro cenário é de 28 821 608 € quando o quarto cenário carece de um investimento inicial de apenas 18 028 349 €. Quanto aos custos associados à implementação da unidade estes demonstram-se elevados, o terceiro cenário apresenta um custo de 23 133 429 € enquanto o do quarto cenário é de 13 998 797 €. O quarto cenário apresenta-se assim como a solução mais rentável para o objetivo desta dissertação.

Innovation and environmental policy: Clean vs. dirty technical change

We study a two sector endogenous growth model with environmental quality with two goods and two factors of production, one clean and one dirty. Technological change creates clean or dirty innovations. We compare the laissez-faire equilibrium and the social optimum and study first- and second-best policies. Optimal policy encourages research toward clean technologies. In a second-best world, we claim that a portfolio that includes a tax on the polluting good combined with optimal innovation subsidy policies is less costly than increasing the price of the polluting good alone. Moreover, a discriminating innovation subsidy policy is preferable to a non-discriminating one.

Technological evolution

The evolution of a technology and the understanding of the moment in its life cycle is of the utmost importance to the entry strategy devised by any company. Having the entry of EDP Brazil on the micro-generation market as background, the present workproject attempts to summarize the most important topics in management literature concerning the theory of technology life-cycles and the updated literature on developments of photovoltaic technology to infer the current positioning of this technology in the theoretical models. The need for this type of work stems from the very common lack of bridging between the academic research of economic aspects relevant to the evolution of technologies and the agents of research on specific technological issues. When this occurs, namely due to the external nature of research to companies, thereby escaping the harsh economic controls of a profit seeking enterprise, the evolution many times lacks the appropriate framework to be studied on a more forward looking manner and to allow for management decisions to be based on.

Investigating the long term planning framework for the Galway Bay community from climate change.

This research looked at the scientific evidence available on climate change and in particular, projections on sea level rise which ranged from 0.5m to 2m by the end of the century. These projections were then considered in an Irish context. A review of current policy in Ireland revealed that there was no dedicated Government policy on climate change or coastal zone management. In terms of spatial planning policy, it became apparent that there was little or no guidance on climate change either at a national, regional or local level. Therefore, to determine the likely impacts of sea level rise in Ireland based on current spatial planning practice and policy, a scenario-building exercise was carried out for two case study areas in Galway Bay. The two case study areas were: Oranmore, a densely populated town located to the east of Inner Galway Bay; and Tawin Island, a rural dispersed community, located to the south east of Inner Galway Bay. A ‘best’ and ‘worse’ case scenario was envisaged for both areas in terms of sea level rise. In the absence of specific climate change policies it was projected that in the ‘best’ case scenario of 0.5m sea level rise, Tawin Island would suffer serious and adverse impacts while Oranmore was likely to experience slight to moderate impacts. However, in the ‘worse’ case scenario of a 2m sea level rise, it was likely that Tawin Island would be abandoned while many houses, businesses and infrastructure built within the floodplain of Oranmore Bay would be inundated and permanently flooded. In this regard, it was the author’s opinion that a strategic and integrated climate change policy and adaptation plan is vital for the island of Ireland that recognises the importance of integrated land use and spatial planning in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

Una arqueometria del canvi tecnològic: producció i consum d'àmfores durant el canvi d'era en la zona nord de la costa catalana

L’objectiu de la recerca és definir un marc teòric i metodològic per a l’estudi del canvi tecnològic en Arqueologia. Aquest model posa èmfasi en caracteritzar els compromisos que configuren una tecnologia i avaluar-los en funció dels factors de situació —tècnics, econòmics, polítics, socials i ideològics. S’ha aplicat aquest model a un cas d’estudi concret: la producció d’àmfores romanes durant el canvi d’Era en la província Tarraconensis. L’estudi tecnològic dels envasos s’ha realitzat mitjançant diverses tècniques analítiques: Fluorescència de raigs X (FRX), Difracció de raigs X (DRX), Microscòpia òptica (MO) i Microscòpia electrònica de rastreig (MER). Les dades obtingudes permeten, a més, establir els grups de referència per a cada centre productor d’àmfores i, així, identificar la provinença dels individus recuperats en els centres consumidors. Donat que les àmfores en estudi són artefactes dissenyats específicament per a ser estibats en una nau i servir com a envàs de transport, l’estudi inclou la caracterització de les propietats mecàniques de resistència a la fractura i de tenacitat. En aquest sentit, i per primera vegada, s’ha aplicat l’Anàlisi d’Elements Finits (AEF) per a conèixer el comportament dels diferents dissenys d’àmfora en ésser sotmesos a diverses forces d’ús. L’AEF permet simular per ordinador les activitats en què les àmfores haurien participat durant el seu ús i avaluar-ne el seu comportament tècnic. Els resultats mostren una gran adequació entre les formulacions teòriques i el programa analític implementat per a aquest estudi. Respecte el cas d’estudi, els resultats mostren una gran variabilitat en les eleccions tecnològiques preses pels ceramistes de diferents tallers, però també al llarg del període de funcionament d’un mateix taller. L’aplicació del model ha permès proposar una explicació al canvi de disseny de les àmfores romanes.

Emissions distribution in post-Kyoto international negotiations: a policy

An abundant scientific literature about climate change economics points out that the future participation of developing countries in international environmental policies will depend on their amount of pay offs inside and outside specific agreements. These studies are aimed at analyzing coalitions stability typically through a game theoretical approach. Though these contributions represent a corner stone in the research field investigating future plausible international coalitions and the reasons behind the difficulties incurred over time to implement emissions stabilizing actions, they cannot disentangle satisfactorily the role that equality play in inducing poor regions to tackle global warming. If we focus on the Stern Review findings stressing that climate change will generate heavy damages and policy actions will be costly in a finite time horizon, we understand why there is a great incentive to free ride in order to exploit benefits from emissions reduction efforts of others. The reluctance of poor countries in joining international agreements is mainly supported by historical responsibility of rich regions in generating atmospheric carbon concentration, whereas rich countries claim that emissions stabilizing policies will be effective only when developing countries will join them.Scholars recently outline that a perceived fairness in the distribution of emissions would facilitate a wide spread participation in international agreements. In this paper we overview the literature about distributional aspects of emissions by focusing on those contributions investigating past trends of emissions distribution through empirical data and future trajectories through simulations obtained by integrated assessment models. We will explain methodologies used to elaborate data and the link between real data and those coming from simulations. Results from this strand of research will be interpreted in order to discuss future negotiations for post Kyoto agreements that will be the focus of the next. Conference of the Parties in Copenhagen at the end of 2009. A particular attention will be devoted to the role that technological change will play in affecting the distribution of emissions over time and to how spillovers and experience diffusion could influence equality issues and future outcomes of policy negotiations.

Productivity and human capital: a business-level analysis

This paper aims to analyse the impact of human capital on business productivity, focusing the analysis on the possible effect of the complementarity that exists between human capital and new production technologies, particularly advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs) for the specific case of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Catalonia. Additionally, following the theory of skill-biased technological change, the paper analyses whether technological change produces bias exclusively in the skills required for managers, or whether the bias extends to the skills required of production staff. With this objective, we have compared the possible existence of complementarity between AMTs and the level of human capital for different occupational groups. The results confirm the complementary relationship between human capital and new production technologies. The results by occupational group confirm that to maximise the productivity of new technologies, skilled staff are needed both in management and production, with managers and professionals as well as skilled operatives playing a vital role. Keywords: human capital, process technologies, complementarity, business productivity. (JEL D24, J24, O30).

Task Force on the Physical Sciences Report and Recommendation

Ireland has positioned itself to take advantage of technological change by encouraging the inward investment of high-tech industries and by providing a highly-educated workforce to sustain and enlarge them. Employment of science, engineering and technology graduates at all levels has been a hallmark of the modern Irish economy, as the educational sector responded to the mix of skills demanded by industry. An outstanding record of graduate output has contributed to the phenomenal growth in Irish-based technology. In an era of rapid technological change, the goal of "scientific literacy for all" has become a primary objective of a general education. Science is one of three literacy domains, along with reading and mathematics, that is included in measures of educational achievement by the OECD.