Interpreting and comparing risks in the presence of competing events

Competing events are common in medical research. Ignoring them in the statistical analysis can easily lead to flawed results and conclusions. This article uses a real dataset and a simple simulation to show how standard analysis fails and how such data should be analysed

Causal factors of hot air ballooning incidents : identification, frequency, and potential impact

Background: Hot air ballooning incidents are relatively rare, however, when they do occur they are likely to result in a fatality or serious injury. Human error is commonly attributed as the cause of hot air ballooning incidents; however, error in itself is not an explanation for safety failures. This research aims to identify, and establish the relative importance of factors contributing towards hot air ballooning incidents. Methods: Twenty-two Australian Ballooning Federation (ABF) incident reports were thematically coded using a bottom up approach to identify causal factors. Subsequently, 69 balloonists (mean 19.51 years’ experience) participated in a survey to identify additional causal factors and rate (out of seven) the perceived frequency and potential impact to ballooning operations of each of the previously identified causal factors. Perceived associated risk was calculated by multiplying mean perceived frequency and impact ratings. Results: Incident report coding identified 54 causal factors within nine higher level areas: Attributes, Crew resource management, Equipment, Errors, Instructors, Organisational, Physical Environment, Regulatory body and Violations. Overall, ‘weather’, ‘inexperience’ and ‘poor/inappropriate decisions’ were rated as having greatest perceived associated risk. Discussion: Although errors were nominated as a prominent cause of hot air ballooning incidents, physical environment and personal attributes are also particularly important for safe hot air ballooning operations. In identifying a range of causal factors the areas of weakness surrounding ballooning operations have been defined; it is hoped that targeted safety and training strategies can now be put into place removing these contributing factors and reducing the chance of pilot error.

Translocation of bats as a conservation strategy : previous attempts and potential problems

Translocation is an increasingly popular conservation tool from which a wide range of taxa have benefited. However, to our knowledge, bats have not been translocated successfully. Bats differ behaviourally, morphologically and physiologically from the taxa for which translocation the- ory has been developed, so existing guidelines may not be directly transferable. We review previous translocations of bats and discuss characteristics of bats that may require special consideration dur- ing translocation. Their vagility and homing ability, coloniality, roost requirements, potential ability to transmit diseases, susceptibility to anthropomorphic impacts, and cryptic nature have implications for establishing populations, effects of these populations on the release site, and ability to monitor translocation success following release. We hope that our discussion of potential problems will be able to supplement the existing, more generic guidelines to provide a starting point for the planning of bat translocations.

Three-dimensional geological modelling of the Galilee and central Eromanga basins, Australia: New insights into aquifer/aquitard geometry and potential influence of faults on inter-connectivity

Study region The Galilee and Eromanga basins are located in central Queensland, Australia. Both basins are components of the Great Artesian Basin which host some of the most significant groundwater resources in Australia. Study focus This study evaluates the influence of regional faults on groundwater flow in an aquifer/aquitard interbedded succession that form one of the largest Artesian Basins in the world. In order to assess the significance of regional faults as potential barriers or conduits to groundwater flow, vertical displacements of the major aquifers and aquitards were studied at each major fault and the general hydraulic relationship of units that are juxtaposed by the faults were considered. A three-dimensional (3D) geological model of the Galilee and Eromanga basins was developed based on integration of well log data, seismic surfaces, surface geology and elevation data. Geological structures were mapped in detail and major faults were characterised. New hydrological insights for the region Major faults that have been described in previous studies have been confirmed within the 3D geological model domain and a preliminary assessment of their hydraulic significance has been conducted. Previously unknown faults such as the Thomson River Fault (herein named) have also been identified in this study.

Costs and benefits of ivory-billed woodpecker re-discovery

Several years ago, the purported re-discovery of the ivory-billed woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) in eastern Arkansas generated lively discussion in renowned scientific journals. The debate concerned both the central question of whether the bird videotaped in April 2004 really was an ivorybilled woodpecker (eg Fitzpatrick et al. 2005; Sibley et al. 2006) and the controversy around the resulting species recovery plan and its costs (McKelvey et al. 2008; Dalton 2010): was $14 million pointlessly spent?

Hospital infection control units: Staffing, costs, and priorities

Background: This article describes infection prevention and control professionals’ (ICPs’) staffing levels, patient outcomes, and costs associated with the provision of infection prevention and control services in Australian hospitals. A secondary objective was to determine the priorities for infection control units. Methods: A cross-sectional study design was used. Infection control units in Australian public and private hospitals completed a Web-based anonymous survey. Data collected included details about the respondent; hospital demographics; details and services of the infection control unit; and a description of infection prevention and control-related outputs, patient outcomes, and infection control priorities. Results: Forty-nine surveys were undertaken, accounting for 152 Australian hospitals. The mean number of ICPs was 0.66 per 100 overnight beds (95% confidence interval, 0.55-0.77). Privately funded hospitals have significantly fewer ICPs per 100 overnight beds compared with publicly funded hospitals (P < .01). Staffing costs for nursing staff in infection control units in this study totaled $16,364,392 (mean, $380,566). Infection control units managing smaller hospitals (<270 beds) identified the need for increased access to infectious diseases or microbiology support. Conclusion: This study provides valuable information to support future decisions by funders, hospital administrators, and ICPs on service delivery models for infection prevention and control. Further, it is the first to provide estimates of the resourcing and cost of staffing infection control in hospitals at a national level. Copyright

The rapid manufacture of uniform composite multicellular-biomaterial micropellets, their assembly into macroscopic organized tissues, and potential applications in cartilage tissue engineering

We and others have published on the rapid manufacture of micropellet tissues, typically formed from 100-500 cells each. The micropellet geometry enhances cellular biological properties, and in many cases the micropellets can subsequently be utilized as building blocks to assemble complex macrotissues. Generally, micropellets are formed from cells alone, however when replicating matrix-rich tissues such as cartilage it would be ideal if matrix or biomaterials supplements could be incorporated directly into the micropellet during the manufacturing process. Herein we describe a method to efficiently incorporate donor cartilage matrix into tissue engineered cartilage micropellets. We lyophilized bovine cartilage matrix, and then shattered it into microscopic pieces having average dimensions < 10 μm diameter; we termed this microscopic donor matrix "cartilage dust (CD)". Using a microwell platform, we show that ~0.83 μg CD can be rapidly and efficiently incorporated into single multicellular aggregates formed from 180 bone marrow mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (MSC) each. The microwell platform enabled the rapid manufacture of thousands of replica composite micropellets, with each micropellet having a material/CD core and a cellular surface. This micropellet organization enabled the rapid bulking up of the micropellet core matrix content, and left an adhesive cellular outer surface. This morphological organization enabled the ready assembly of the composite micropellets into macroscopic tissues. Generically, this is a versatile method that enables the rapid and uniform integration of biomaterials into multicellular micropellets that can then be used as tissue building blocks. In this study, the addition of CD resulted in an approximate 8-fold volume increase in the micropellets, with the donor matrix functioning to contribute to an increase in total cartilage matrix content. Composite micropellets were readily assembled into macroscopic cartilage tissues; the incorporation of CD enhanced tissue size and matrix content, but did not enhance chondrogenic gene expression.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Field and potential around local scatterers in thin metal films studied by scanning tunneling potentiometry

We report the direct observation of electrochemical potential and local transport field variations near scatterers like grain boundaries, triple points, and voids in thin platinum films studied by scanning tunneling potentiometry. The field is highest at a void, followed by a triple point and a grain boundary. The local transport field near a void can even be four orders of magnitude higher than the macroscopic field, indicating that the void is the most likely place for an electromigration induced failure. The field build up for a particular type of scatterer depends on the grain connectivity. We estimate an average grain boundary reflection coefficient for the film from the temperature dependence of its resistivity.

Review of Nezara viridula (L.) management strategies and potential for IPM in field crops with emphasis on Australia

Nezara viridula (L.) is a cosmopolitan, polyphagous heteropteran that causes economic damage to many crop species. At present, control of N. viridula in Australia and other countries relies heavily upon insecticides, most of which are disruptive to beneficial insects, constituting a constraint on integrated pest management (IPM). Much research has been conducted into non-chemical control methods for N. viridula. This paper reviews the potential for and limitations of sterile insect technique, classical, inundative and conservation biological control, and trap cropping. None of these techniques appear to be adequate for control of N. viridula when used alone but there is scope for these non-chemical approaches to be adopted for use in integrated management of this pest. A proposal is given for one such integrated approach for future development. It includes biopesticides, trap crops and carefully targeted habitat manipulation to enhance arthropod natural enemies as well as area-wide management and grower education.

Thermal tolerance and potential distribution of Carvalhotingis visenda (Hemiptera: Tingidae), a biological control agent for cat's claw creeper, Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae)

The specialist tingid, Carvalhotingis visenda, is a biological control agent for cat's claw creeper, Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae). Cat's claw creeper is an invasive liana with a wide climatic tolerance, and for biological control to be effective the tingid must survive and develop over a range of temperatures. We evaluated the effect of constant temperatures (0-45°C) on the survival and development of C. visenda. Adults showed tolerance for wider temperature ranges (0-45°C), but oviposition, egg hatching and nymphal development were all affected by both high (>30°C) and low (<20°C) temperatures. Temperatures between 20°C and 30°C are the most favourable for adult survival, oviposition, egg hatching and nymphal development. The ability of adults and nymphs to survive for a few days at high (40°C and 45°C) and low (0°C and 5°C) temperatures suggest that extreme temperature events, which usually occur for short durations (hours) in cat's claw creeper infested regions in Queensland and New South Wales states are not likely to affect the tingid population. The potential number of generations (egg to adult) the tingid can complete in a year in Australia ranged from three to eight, with more generations in Queensland than in New South Wales.

Latent TGF-beta Binding Proteins : Adhesive functions and matrix association of LTBP-2 and potential functions of LTBP-1 and LTBP-3 in mesothelioma

Latent transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta) binding proteins (LTBPs) -1, -3 and -4 are ECM components whose major function is to augment the secretion and matrix targeting of TGF-beta, a multipotent cytokine. LTBP-2 does not bind small latent TGF-beta but has suggested functions as a structural protein in ECM microfibrils. In the current work we focused on analyzing possible adhesive functions of LTBP-2 as well as on characterizing the kinetics and regulation of LTBP-2 secretion and ECM deposition. We also explored the role of TGF-beta binding LTBPs in endothelial cells activated to mimic angiogenesis as well as in malignant mesothelioma. We found that, unlike most adherent cells, several melanoma cell lines efficiently adhered to purified recombinant LTBP-2. Further characterization revealed that the adhesion was mediated by alpha3beta1 and alpha6beta1 integrins. Heparin also inhibited the melanoma cell adhesion suggesting a role for heparan sulphate proteoglycans. LTBP-2 was also identified as a haptotactic substrate for melanoma cell migration. We used cultured human embryonic lung fibroblasts to analyze the temporal and spatial association of LTBP-2 into ECM. By We found that LTBP-2 was efficiently assembled to the ECM only in confluent cultures following the deposition of fibronectin (FN) and fibrillin-1. In early, subconfluent cultures it remained primarily in soluble form after secretion. LTBP-2 colocalized transiently with FN and fibrillin-1. Silencing of fibrillin-1 expression by lentiviral shRNAs profoundly disrupted the deposition of LTBP-2 indicating that the ECM association of LTBP-2 depends on a pre-formed fibrillin-1 network. Considering the established role of TGF-beta as a regulator of angiogenesis we induced morphological activation of endothelial cells by phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) and followed the fate of LTBP-1 in the endothelial ECM. This resulted in profound proteolytic processing of LTBP-1 and release of latent TGF-beta complexes from the ECM. The processing was coupled with increased activation of MT-MMPs and specific upregulation of MT1-MMP. The major role of MT1-MMP in the proteolysis of LTBP-1 was confirmed by suppressing the expression with lentivirally induced short-hairpin RNAs as well as by various metalloproteinases inhibitors. TGF-beta can promote tumorigenesis of malignant mesothelioma (MM), which is an aggressive tumor of the pleura with poor prognosis. TGF-beta activity was analyzed in a panel of MM tumors by immunohistochemical staining of phosphorylated Smad-2 (P-Smad2). The tumor cells were strongly positive for P-Smad2 whereas LTBP-1 immunoreactivity was abundant in the stroma, and there was a negative correlation between LTBP-1 and P-Smad2 staining. In addition, the high P-Smad2 immunoreactivity correlated with shorter survival of patients. mRNA analysis revealed that TGF-beta1 was the most highly expressed isoform in both normal human pleura and MM tissue. LTBP-1 and LTBP-3 were both abundantly expressed. LTBP-1 was the predominant isoform in established MM cell lines whereas the expression of LTBP-3 was high in control cells. Suppression of LTBP-3 expression by siRNAs resulted in increased TGF-beta activity in MM cell lines accompanied by decreased proliferation. Our results suggest that decreased expression of LTBP-3 in MM could alter the targeting of TGF-beta to the ECM and lead to its increased activation. The current work emphasizes the coordinated process of the assembly and appropriate targeting of LTBPs with distinct adhesive or cytokine harboring properties into the ECM. The hierarchical assembly may have implications in the modulation of signaling events during morphogenesis and tissue remodeling.

Influence of plant traits on production costs and profitability of strawberry in southeast Queensland.

In Queensland the subtropical strawberry ( Fragaria * ananassa) breeding program aims to combine traits into novel genotypes that increase production efficiency. The contribution of individual plant traits to cost and income under subtropical Queensland conditions was investigated, with the overall goal of improving the profitability of the industry through the release of new strawberry cultivars. The study involved specifying the production and marketing system using three cultivars of strawberry that are currently widely grown annually in southeast Queensland, developing methods to assess the economic impact of changes to the system, and identifying plant traits that influence outcomes from the system. From May through September P (price; $ punnet -1), V (monthly mass; tonne of fruit on the market) and M (calendar month; i.e. May=5) were found to be related ( r2=0.92) by the function (SE) P=4.741(0.469)-0.001630(0.0005) V-0.226(0.102) M using data from 2006 to 2010 for the Brisbane central market. Both income and cost elements in the gross margin were subject to sensitivity analysis. 'Harvesting' and 'Handling/Packing' 'Groups' of 'Activities' were the major contributors to variable costs (each >20%) in the gross margin analysis. Within the 'Harvesting Group', the 'Picking Activity' contributed most (>80%) with the trait 'display of fruit' having the greatest (33%) influence on the cost of the 'Picking Activity'. Within the 'Handling/Packing Group', the 'Packing Activity' contributed 50% of costs with the traits 'fruit shape', 'fruit size variation' and 'resistance to bruising' having the greatest (12-62%) influence on the cost of the 'Packing Activity'. Non-plant items (e.g. carton purchases) made up the other 50% of the costs within the 'Handling/Packing Group'. When any of the individual traits in the 'Harvesting' and 'Handling/Packing' groups were changed by one unit (on a 1-9 scale) the gross margin changed by up to 1%. Increasing yield increased the gross margin to a maximum (15% above present) at 1320 g plant -1 (94% above present). A 10% redistribution of total yield from September to May increased the gross margin by 23%. Increasing fruit size increased gross margin: a 75% increase in fruit size (to ~30 g) produced a 22% increase in the gross margin. The modified gross margin analysis developed in this study allowed simultaneous estimation of the gross margin for the producer and gross value of the industry. These parameters sometimes move in opposite directions.

Introduction, establishment, and potential geographic range of Carmenta sp. nr ithacae (Lepidoptera: Sesiidae), a biological control agent for Parthenium hysterophorus (Asteraceae) in Australia

Parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorus L.), a major weed causing economic, environmental, and human and animal health problems in Australia and several countries in Asia, Africa, and the Pacific, has been a target for biological control in Australia since the mid-1970s. Nine species of insects and two rust fungi have been introduced as biological control agents into Australia. These include Carmenta sp. nr ithacae, a root feeding agent from Mexico. The larvae of C. sp. nr ithacae bore through the stem-base into the root where they feed on the cortical tissue of the taproot. During 1998-2002, 2,816 larval-infested plants and 387 adults were released at 31 sites across Queensland, Australia. Evidence of field establishment was first observed in two of the release sites in central Queensland in 2004. Annual surveys at these sites and nonrelease sites during 2006-2011 showed wide variations in the incidence and abundance of C. sp. nr ithacae between years and sites. Surveys at three of the nine release sites in northern Queensland and 16 of the 22 release sites in central Queensland confirmed the field establishment of C. sp. nr ithacae in four release sites and four nonrelease sites, all in central Queensland. No field establishment was evident in the inland region or in northern Queensland. A CLIMEX model based on the native range distribution of C. sp. nr ithacae predicts that areas east of the dividing range along the coast are more suitable for field establishment than inland areas. Future efforts to redistribute this agent should be restricted to areas identified as climatically favorable by the CLIMEX model.