The Making of Optimal and Consistent Policy: An Analytical Framework for Monetary Models

This paper shows that optimal policy and consistent policy outcomes require the use of control-theory and game-theory solution techniques. While optimal policy and consistent policy often produce different outcomes even in a one-period model, we analyze consistent policy and its outcome in a simple model, finding that the cause of the inconsistency with optimal policy traces to inconsistent targets in the social loss function. As a result, the central bank should adopt a loss function that differs from the social loss function. Carefully designing the central bank s loss function with consistent targets can harmonize optimal and consistent policy. This desirable result emerges from two observations. First, the social loss function reflects a normative process that does not necessarily prove consistent with the structure of the microeconomy. Thus, the social loss function cannot serve as a direct loss function for the central bank. Second, an optimal loss function for the central bank must depend on the structure of that microeconomy. In addition, this paper shows that control theory provides a benchmark for institution design in a game-theoretical framework.

A Model of Endogenous Union Density and Membership

We develop a theoretical model of endogenously determined union density and union membership. A union is formed, continued, or dissolved by majority voting. Given the profitability, production technology, and labor and product market conditions, the union determines the reservation wage that is acceptable to the firm. Based on this reservation wage and other subjective factors, workers vote for or against the union. If the union is formed, the firm determines the employment level at the union wage.

Simulation study of joint transition and Weibull survival model with shared parameters

This study investigates a theoretical model where a longitudinal process, that is a stationary Markov-Chain, and a Weibull survival process share a bivariate random effect. Furthermore, a Quality-of-Life adjusted survival is calculated as the weighted sum of survival time. Theoretical values of population mean adjusted survival of the described model are computed numerically. The parameters of the bivariate random effect do significantly affect theoretical values of population mean. Maximum-Likelihood and Bayesian methods are applied on simulated data to estimate the model parameters. Based on the parameter estimates, predicated population mean adjusted survival can then be calculated numerically and compared with the theoretical values. Bayesian method and Maximum-Likelihood method provide parameter estimations and population mean prediction with comparable accuracy; however Bayesian method suffers from poor convergence due to autocorrelation and inter-variable correlation. ^

A Model of Emotion as Patterned Metacontrol

Adaptive agents use feedback as a key strategy to cope with un- certainty and change in their environments. The information fed back from the sensorimotor loop into the control subsystem can be used to change four different elements of the controller: parameters associated to the control model, the control model itself, the functional organization of the agent and the functional realization of the agent. There are many change alternatives and hence the complexity of the agent’s space of potential configurations is daunting. The only viable alternative for space- and time-constrained agents —in practical, economical, evolutionary terms— is to achieve a reduction of the dimensionality of this configuration space. Emotions play a critical role in this reduction. The reduction is achieved by func- tionalization, interface minimization and by patterning, i.e. by selection among a predefined set of organizational configurations. This analysis lets us state how autonomy emerges from the integration of cognitive, emotional and autonomic systems in strict functional terms: autonomy is achieved by the closure of functional dependency. Emotion-based morphofunctional systems are able to exhibit complex adaptation patterns at a reduced cognitive cost. In this article we show a general model of how emotion supports functional adaptation and how the emotional biological systems operate following this theoretical model. We will also show how this model is also of applicability to the construction of a wide spectrum of artificial systems1.

Semantic technologies in idea management systems: a model for interoperability, linking and filtering

Abstract Idea Management Systems are web applications that implement the notion of open innovation though crowdsourcing. Typically, organizations use those kind of systems to connect to large communities in order to gather ideas for improvement of products or services. Originating from simple suggestion boxes, Idea Management Systems advanced beyond collecting ideas and aspire to be a knowledge management solution capable to select best ideas via collaborative as well as expert assessment methods. In practice, however, the contemporary systems still face a number of problems usually related to information overflow and recognizing questionable quality of submissions with reasonable time and effort allocation. This thesis focuses on idea assessment problem area and contributes a number of solutions that allow to filter, compare and evaluate ideas submitted into an Idea Management System. With respect to Idea Management System interoperability the thesis proposes theoretical model of Idea Life Cycle and formalizes it as the Gi2MO ontology which enables to go beyond the boundaries of a single system to compare and assess innovation in an organization wide or market wide context. Furthermore, based on the ontology, the thesis builds a number of solutions for improving idea assessment via: community opinion analysis (MARL), annotation of idea characteristics (Gi2MO Types) and study of idea relationships (Gi2MO Links). The main achievements of the thesis are: application of theoretical innovation models for practice of Idea Management to successfully recognize the differentiation between communities, opinion metrics and their recognition as a new tool for idea assessment, discovery of new relationship types between ideas and their impact on idea clustering. Finally, the thesis outcome is establishment of Gi2MO Project that serves as an incubator for Idea Management solutions and mature open-source software alternatives for the widely available commercial suites. From the academic point of view the project delivers resources to undertake experiments in the Idea Management Systems area and managed to become a forum that gathered a number of academic and industrial partners. Resumen Los Sistemas de Gestión de Ideas son aplicaciones Web que implementan el concepto de innovación abierta con técnicas de crowdsourcing. Típicamente, las organizaciones utilizan ese tipo de sistemas para conectar con comunidades grandes y así recoger ideas sobre cómo mejorar productos o servicios. Los Sistemas de Gestión de Ideas lian avanzado más allá de recoger simplemente ideas de buzones de sugerencias y ahora aspiran ser una solución de gestión de conocimiento capaz de seleccionar las mejores ideas por medio de técnicas colaborativas, así como métodos de evaluación llevados a cabo por expertos. Sin embargo, en la práctica, los sistemas contemporáneos todavía se enfrentan a una serie de problemas, que, por lo general, están relacionados con la sobrecarga de información y el reconocimiento de las ideas de dudosa calidad con la asignación de un tiempo y un esfuerzo razonables. Esta tesis se centra en el área de la evaluación de ideas y aporta una serie de soluciones que permiten filtrar, comparar y evaluar las ideas publicadas en un Sistema de Gestión de Ideas. Con respecto a la interoperabilidad de los Sistemas de Gestión de Ideas, la tesis propone un modelo teórico del Ciclo de Vida de la Idea y lo formaliza como la ontología Gi2MO que permite ir más allá de los límites de un sistema único para comparar y evaluar la innovación en un contexto amplio dentro de cualquier organización o mercado. Por otra parte, basado en la ontología, la tesis desarrolla una serie de soluciones para mejorar la evaluación de las ideas a través de: análisis de las opiniones de la comunidad (MARL), la anotación de las características de las ideas (Gi2MO Types) y el estudio de las relaciones de las ideas (Gi2MO Links). Los logros principales de la tesis son: la aplicación de los modelos teóricos de innovación para la práctica de Sistemas de Gestión de Ideas para reconocer las diferenciasentre comu¬nidades, métricas de opiniones de comunidad y su reconocimiento como una nueva herramienta para la evaluación de ideas, el descubrimiento de nuevos tipos de relaciones entre ideas y su impacto en la agrupación de estas. Por último, el resultado de tesis es el establecimiento de proyecto Gi2MO que sirve como incubadora de soluciones para Gestión de Ideas y herramientas de código abierto ya maduras como alternativas a otros sistemas comerciales. Desde el punto de vista académico, el proyecto ha provisto de recursos a ciertos experimentos en el área de Sistemas de Gestión de Ideas y logró convertirse en un foro que reunión para un número de socios tanto académicos como industriales.

Proposal of a three level complexity model for office automation

Office automation is one of the fields where the complexity related with technologies and working environments can be best shown. This is the starting point we have chosen to build up a theoretical model that shows us a scene quite different from the one traditionally considered. Through the development of the model, the levels of complexity associated with office automation and office environments have been identified, establishing a relationship between them. Thus, the model allows to state a general principle for sociotechnical design of office automation systems, comprising the ontological distinctions needed to properly evaluate each particular technology and its virtual contribution to office automation. From this fact comes the model's taxonomic ability to draw a global perspective of the state-of-art in office automation technologies.

Análisis del discurso del entrenador de baloncesto experto en competición

En el ámbito de la competición deportiva profesional, el entrenador es una figura clave dentro del equipo y afecta de manera significativa al rendimiento del mismo. El comportamiento del entrenador, las decisiones que tome durante el partido, sus formas, tiempos, etc. afectan a las actuaciones de los jugadores dentro de la pista y suponen un aspecto muy importante a tener en cuenta a la hora de analizar el rendimiento de los equipos en una competición. Los condicionantes de la competición, la urgencia en las decisiones, la incertidumbre de su cumplimiento, etc., afectan a su conducta verbal. Por tanto, debemos conocer algunos de los comportamientos que resultan más eficaces por parte del entrenador para conseguir el mayor rendimiento de su equipo durante el partido y a partir de ahí tratar de construir un modelo teórico sobre que requisitos debería cumplir esta conducta verbal, ya que creemos que es a través del análisis de la observación de una conducta en una situación real como se pueden establecer estos parámetros teóricos sobre la comunicación. Para ello realizamos un estudio de 6 casos de entrenadores expertos en los que observamos su comportamiento verbal durante 4 partidos para extraer una información que comparada con los estudios previos, determine si es posible o no, establecer un modelo mínimo común de comportamiento eficaz en competición. En cuanto al objeto de la observación en el estudio de los casos nos hemos centrado en el contenido de la información, el que, su significado y sólo de tipo verbal, ya que consideramos la comunicación no verbal como algo más sujeto a posibles interpretaciones, aspecto que no estudiamos. ABSTRACT In the area of the sports professional competition, the coach is a key figure inside the team and concerns in a significant way the performance of the same one. The behavior of the coach, the decisions that it takes during the game, his forms, times, etc. They concern the actions of the players inside the track and suppose a very important aspect to bear in mind at the moment of analyzing the performance of the teams in a competition. The determining ones of the competition, the urgency in the decisions, the uncertainty of his fulfillment, etc., they concern his verbal behavior. Therefore, we must know some of the behaviors that turn out to be more effective on the part of the coach to obtain the best performance of his team during the game and from there tries to construct a theoretical model on whom requirements it should fulfill this verbal behavior, since we believe that it is across the analysis of the observation of a conduct in a true situation since these theoretical parameters can be established on the communication. For it we realize a study of 6 cases of expert coaches in that we observe his verbal behavior during 4 games to extract information that compared with the previous studies, it determines if it is possible or not, establishes a minimal common model of effective behavior in competition. As for the object of the observation in the study of the cases we have centered on the content of the information, the fact that, his meaning and only of verbal type, since we consider the not verbal communication as slightly more subject to possible interpretations, aspect that we do not study.

An approach to a model of the visual cortex: disorders of vision

One of the most challenging problems that must be solved by any theoretical model purporting to explain the competence of the human brain for relational tasks is the one related with the analysis and representation of the internal structure in an extended spatial layout of múltiple objects. In this way, some of the problems are related with specific aims as how can we extract and represent spatial relationships among objects, how can we represent the movement of a selected object and so on. The main objective of this paper is the study of some plausible brain structures that can provide answers in these problems. Moreover, in order to achieve a more concrete knowledge, our study will be focused on the response of the retinal layers for optical information processing and how this information can be processed in the first cortex layers. The model to be reported is just a first trial and some major additions are needed to complete the whole vision process.

An experimental and theoretical study of unsteady flow (gust) effects on structures

The gust wind tunnel at IDR, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), has been enhanced and the impact of the modification has been characterized. Several flow quality configurations have been tested. The problems in measuring gusty winds with Pitot tubes have been considered. Experimental results have been obtained and compared with theoretically calculated results (based on potential flow theory). A theoretical correction term has been proposed for unsteady flow measurements obtained with Pitot tubes. The effect of unsteady flow on structures and laying bodies on the ground has been also considered. A theoretical model has been proposed for a semi-circular cylinder and experimental tests have been performed to study the unsteady flow effects, which can help in clarifying the phenomenon.

Model of the aerodynamic behavior of a pararotor

Asimple semi-empirical model for the aerodynamic behavior of a low-aspect ratio pararotor in autorotation at low Reynolds numbers is presented. The paper is split into three sections: Sec. II deals with the theoretical model derivation, Sec. III deals with the wind-tunnel measurements needed for tuning the theoretical model, and Sec. IV deals with the tuning between the theoretical model and the experimental data. The study is focused on the effect of both the blade pitch angle and the blade roughness and also on the stream velocity, on the rotation velocity, and on the drag of a model. Flow pattern visualizations have also been performed. The value of the free aerodynamic parameters of the semi-empirical model that produces the best fit with the experimental results agrees with the expected ones for the blades at the test conditions. Finally, the model is able to describe the behavior of a pararotor in autorotation that rotates fixed to a shaft, validated for a range of blade pitch angles. The movement of the device is found to be governed by a reduced set of dimensionless parameters.

Pulsiones del espacio : Oteiza y la aproximación a la arquitectura como vacío activo

Este trabajo se centra en el estudio de las investigaciones de Jorge Oteiza en torno a la funcionalidad estética del espacio, en especial, en la actividad artística que desarrolló en el año 1958, un año decisivo en la vida del escultor en el que dio por finalizado su proceso de experimentación sobre la naturaleza espacial de la estatua. En este desenlace tuvo un papel fundamental la relación funcional que planteó, a la hora de retomar su trabajo después de su triunfo en la IV Bienal de São Paulo de 1957, entre la escultura y la arquitectura. La primera, entendida como organismo puramente espacial, debía de responder a las condiciones de su mundo circundante, el espacio arquitectónico. Su función: acondicionarlo estéticamente para satisfacer las necesidades espirituales del habitante. Siguiendo el canon estético que para la escultura acababa de anunciar en Brasil, la desocupación espacial (la liberación de la energía espacial de la estatua, el rompimiento de la neutralidad del espacio libre) no se trataba de embellecer superficialmente la arquitectura sino de activar su vacío interior. Oteiza, que siempre estuvo muy interesado por la arquitectura y que había colaborado con anterioridad en numerosas ocasiones con los mejores arquitectos del país, fue durante este año cuando profundizó de manera más sistemática (teórica y prácticamente) sobre la relación arte-arquitectura. De hecho, él mismo nombraba como el último trabajo de su línea de experimentación en escultura a su propuesta para el concurso del Monumento a José Batlle en Montevideo, que junto al arquitecto Roberto Puig acabaron a finales de año. En el proyecto se planteaba a escala urbana, y como ejemplo concreto, el modelo teórico de integración arquitectura + (arte=0) que había elaborado los meses anteriores, la integración vacía. En el texto explicativo que acompañaba al proyecto (un texto que desbordaba los límites de una memoria al uso) demandaba la necesidad de la toma de conciencia estética del espacio, como acto de libertad individual, y declaraba el fin del rol de espectador del hombre frente a la obra de arte, reclamando su participación activa en la misma. Para él, la noción del espacio estético no era una condición innata en el hombre, se descubría, se aprendía, evolucionaba y se olvidaba (una vez convertido en hábito). Frente a la ceguera de la sensibilidad espacial del hombre, proponía la educación de la percepción espacial, condicionar emocionalmente la reflexión espontánea ante el juego espacial de las formas en la naturaleza y el espectáculo natural de la ciudad. Aprender a leer el lenguaje emocional del espacio, a pensar visualmente. La obra de arte era así un catalizador espiritual del contorno del mundo, modificador de la vida espacial circundante que corregía hábitos visuales y condicionaba estímulos y reflejos. Desde una resonancia afectiva con la definición psicológica del término (como energía psíquica profunda que invita o incita a pasar a la acción), a diferencia del instinto, la pulsión (siendo la fuente de toda conducta espontánea) es susceptible de ser modificada por la experiencia, por la educación, por la cultura, por el deseo. Es desde esta aproximación en términos de energía desde la que se propone la noción pulsiones del espacio como fórmula (reversible) entre la energía espacial liberada en el proceso de desocupación definido por Oteiza y caracterizadora de la obra como vacío activo (en escultura, en arquitectura), y la energía psíquica profunda que invita o incita a la toma de posesión del espacio (la voluntad espacial absoluta con la que Oteiza definía su modelo de arte=0, cero como expresión formal). Si el hombre modifica su entorno al mismo tiempo que es condicionado por él, es indispensable una conciencia estética del espacio que le enseñe, de entre todas las posibilidades que este le ofrece, qué es lo que necesita (qué es lo que le falta), para tomar posesión de él, para un efectivo ser o existir en el espacio. Es desde esta caracterización como energía por lo que las pulsiones del espacio se sitúan entre el hombre y su entorno (construido) y permiten la transformación entre energía espacial y energía psíquica; entre su hábitat y sus hábitos. Por estas mismas fechas, Oteiza definía una casa como un conjunto articulado de vacíos activos, como una obra de plástica pura que no es arte sino en función del habitante. Es este habitante, educado en la toma de conciencia estética del espacio, el que participando activamente en la interpretación de los espacios previstos por el arquitecto, sintiendo y movido por las pulsiones del espacio, hará uso adecuado de la arquitectura; pasando de un arte como objeto a un arte como comportamiento, transformará su habitar en un arte, el arte de habitar. ABSTRACT This work focuses on the study of Jorge Oteiza’s investigations on the aesthetic functionality of space, especially on his artistic activity developed in 1958, a decisive year in the life of the sculptor, in which he gave end to his process of experimentation on the spatial nature of the statue. In this outcome it was fundamental the functional relationship that he propounded, at the time of returning to work after his triumph in the IV Bienal de São Paulo in 1957, between sculpture and architecture. The first, understood as a purely spatial organism, should respond to the conditions of its environment (umwelt), the architectonic space. Its function: set it up aesthetically to meet the spiritual needs of the inhabitant. Following the aesthetic canon that he had just announced in Brazil for sculpture, the spatial disoccupation (the liberation of the spatial energy of the statue, the breaking of the neutrality of the free space) the aim was not to superficially beautify architecture but to activate its inner void. Oteiza, who had always been very interested in architecture and who had previously collaborated on numerous occasions with the best architects in the country, was in this year when he deepened in a more systematic way (theoretically and practically) about the art-architecture relationship. In fact, he named as the last work of his line of experimentation in sculpture to his proposal for the competition of the Monument to José Batlle in Montevideo, which, developed together with the architect Roberto Puig, was ended at the end of the year. The project proposed on an urban scale, and as a concrete example, the theoretical model of integration architecture + (art = 0) which he had elaborated the previous months, the empty integration. In the explanatory text accompanying the project (a text that exceeded the normal extents of a competition statement) he demanded the need of the aesthetic awareness of space, as an act of individual freedom, and it declared the end of the role of man as passive spectator in front of the work of art, claiming his actively participation in it. For him, the notion of the aesthetic space was not an inborn condition in man; first it was discovered, then learned, evolved and finally forgotten (once converted into a habit). To counteract blindness of the spatial sensitivity of man, he proposed the education of spatial perception, to emotionally influence the spontaneous reflection in front of the spatial game of forms in nature and the natural spectacle of the city. Learn to read the emotional language of space, to think visually. The work of art was thus a spiritual catalyst of the world’s contour, a modifier of the surrounding spatial life that corrected visual habits and conditioned stimuli and reflexes. From an emotional resonance with the psychological definition of the term (such as deep psychic power that invites or urges action), as opposed to instinct, drive (being the source of all spontaneous behavior) is likely to be modified by experience, by education, by culture, by desire. It is from this approach in terms of energy from which the notion drives of space is proposed, as a (reversible) formula between the spatial energy released in the process of disoccupation defined by Oteiza and characterizing of the work as a charged void (in sculpture, in architecture), and the deep psychic energy that invites or encourages the taking possession of the space (the absolute spatial will with which Oteiza defined its model of Art = 0, zero as a formal expression). If man changes his environment at the same time that is conditioned by it, it is essential an aesthetic awareness of space that shows him, among all the possibilities that it offers, what he needs (what is what he lacks), in order to take possession of it, for an effective being or existing in space. It is this characterization as energy by what drives of space lie between man and his (built) environment and allow the transformation between spatial and psychological energy; between his habitat and his habits. Around this same time, Oteiza defined a House as an articulated set of charged voids, as a work of pure plastic that is not art but according to the inhabitant. It is this inhabitant, educated in aesthetic awareness of space, who actively participating in the interpretation of the spaces provided by the architect, feeling and moved by the drives of the space, will make proper use of the architecture; from an art as object to an art as behavior, he will transform his inhabitation into an art, the art of inhabitation.

Validação de uma estrutura de análise ofensiva no basquetebol baseada no sequenciamento de dinâmicas de criação de espaço

A inferência de estratégias ofensivas em esportes coletivos pode ser realizada a partir da análise dos padrões de jogo observados durante a disputa. Para que isso ocorra, há a necessidade da formalização de classes de comportamentos específicos para a modalidade de forma a discriminar perfis de jogo com base na identificação das ações mais recorrentes. No basquetebol as ações são encadeadas ao longo da posse de bola, sendo que os diferentes tipos de sequências de ações contêm características que os diferenciam e podem influenciar diretamente no desfecho do ataque. Nesse trabalho foi apresentada uma proposta contendo diferentes possibilidades de sequenciamento de dinâmicas ofensivas baseadas em um modelo teórico descrito na literatura. Os procedimentos de validação do sequenciamento de dinâmicas ofensivas e os testes de reprodutibilidade e objetividade realizados junto a técnicos de basquetebol apresentaram valores elevados demonstrando a consistência dos critérios para a elaboração de 27 tipos de concatenações dependentes (Qui-quadrado >0,78). Além disso, a estrutura desenvolvida foi concluída através da aplicação do constructo a jogos de basquetebol da liga profissional Americana (NBA) (28 partidas, dentre as quais 10 partidas do confronto entre Spurs x Thunder, 10 partidas referentes ao confronto entre Heat e Pacers e 8 partidas da disputa envolvendo Heat e Spurs, sendo analisados ambos os ataques em cada confronto, válidos pela temporada regular e na fase de playoffs). Os resultados gerados a partir da análise foram apresentados através de árvores de decisão e grafos de modo a facilitar a visualização dos comportamentos identificados. A árvore de decisão apresentou as ações na sequência exata em que ocorreram nas posses de bola, enquanto os grafos mostraram os encadeamentos mais recorrentes entre duas dinâmicas ofensivas. Assim ambas as técnicas se mostraram complementares e auxiliaram na observação e análise dos perfis de jogo de cada equipe e na realização de inferências acerca de sua estratégia ofensiva. A formalização dos tipos de sequenciamento de ações ofensivas pode auxiliar treinadores e profissionais do basquetebol no desenho de estratégias, análise dos padrões de suas equipes e adversários e estruturação de sessões de treinamento que considerem os comportamentos ofensivos de modo dinâmico e contextualizado dentro de um encadeamento lógico de ações de jogo

The effects of economic crises on tourism success: an integrated model

This paper provides a theoretical model of the influence of economic crises on tourism destination performance. It discusses the temporary and permanent effects of economic crises on the global market shares of tourism destinations through a series of potential transmission mechanisms based on the main economic competitiveness determinants identified in the literature. The proposed model explains the non-neutrality of economic shocks in tourism competitiveness. The model is tested on Spain's tourism industry, which is among the leaders of the global tourism sector, for the period 1970–2013 using non-linear econometric techniques. The empirical analysis confirms that the proposed model is appropriate for explaining the changes in the market positions caused by the economic crises.

Is socioeconomic position early in life associated with physical activity during adulthood following the accumulation of risk model with additive effects?

L'activité physique améliore la santé, mais seulement 4.8% des Canadiens atteignent le niveau recommandé. La position socio-économique est un des déterminants de l'activité physique les plus importants. Elle est associée à l’activité physique de manière transversale à l’adolescence et à l’âge adulte. Cette thèse a tenté de déterminer s'il y a une association à long terme entre la position socio-économique au début du parcours de vie et l’activité physique à l’âge adulte. S'il y en avait une, un deuxième objectif était de déterminer quel modèle théorique en épidémiologie des parcours de vie décrivait le mieux sa forme. Cette thèse comprend trois articles: une recension systématique et deux recherches originales. Dans la recension systématique, des recherches ont été faites dans Medline et EMBASE pour trouver les études ayant mesuré la position socio-économique avant l'âge de 18 ans et l'activité physique à ≥18 ans. Dans les deux recherches originales, la modélisation par équations structurelles a été utilisée pour comparer trois modèles alternatifs en épidémiologie des parcours de vie: le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs, le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effet déclenché et le modèle de période critique. Ces modèles ont été comparés dans deux cohortes prospectives représentatives à l'échelle nationale: la 1970 British birth cohort (n=16,571; première recherche) et l’Enquête longitudinale nationale sur les enfants et les jeunes (n=16,903; deuxième recherche). Dans la recension systématique, 10 619 articles ont été passés en revue par deux chercheurs indépendants et 42 ont été retenus. Pour le résultat «activité physique» (tous types et mesures confondus), une association significative avec la position socio-économique durant l’enfance fut trouvée dans 26/42 études (61,9%). Quand seulement l’activité physique durant les loisirs a été considérée, une association significative fut trouvée dans 21/31 études (67,7%). Dans un sous-échantillon de 21 études ayant une méthodologie plus forte, les proportions d’études ayant trouvé une association furent plus hautes : 15/21 (71,4%) pour tous les types et toutes les mesures d’activité physique et 12/15 (80%) pour l’activité physique de loisir seulement. Dans notre première recherche originale sur les données de la British birth cohort, pour la classe sociale, nous avons trouvé que le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs s’est ajusté le mieux chez les hommes et les femmes pour l’activité physique de loisir, au travail et durant les transports. Dans notre deuxième recherche originale sur les données canadiennes sur l'activité physique de loisir, nous avons trouvé que chez les hommes, le modèle de période critique s’est ajusté le mieux aux données pour le niveau d’éducation et le revenu, alors que chez les femmes, le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs s’est ajusté le mieux pour le revenu, tandis que le niveau d’éducation ne s’est ajusté à aucun des modèles testés. En conclusion, notre recension systématique indique que la position socio-économique au début du parcours de vie est associée à la pratique d'activité physique à l'âge adulte. Les résultats de nos deux recherches originales suggèrent un patron d’associations le mieux représenté par le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs.

Majority versus minority influence, message processing and attitude change:the Source-Context-Elaboration Model

This chapter examines the contexts in which people will process more deeply, and therefore be more influenced by, a position that is supported by either a numerical majority or minority. The chapter reviews the major theories of majority and minority influence with reference to which source condition is associated with most message processing (and where relevant, the contexts under which this occurs) and experimental research examining these predictions. The chapter then presents a new theoretical model (the source-context-elaboration model, SCEM) that aims to integrate the disparate research findings. The model specifies the processes underlying majority and minority influence, the contexts under which these processes occur and the consequences for attitudes changed by majority and minority influence. The chapter then describes a series of experiments that address each of the aspects of the theoretical model. Finally, a range of research-related issues are discussed and future issues for the research area as a whole are considered.