A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular it delivers a zero-limiting mean-squared error if the number of forecasts and the number of post-sample time periods is sufficiently large. We also develop a zero-mean test for the average bias. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of this new technique in finite samples. An empirical exercise, based upon data from well known surveys is also presented. Overall, these results show promise for the bias-corrected average forecast.

A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the (feasible) bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular, it is asymptotically equivalent to the conditional expectation, i.e., has an optimal limiting mean-squared error. We also develop a zeromean test for the average bias and discuss the forecast-combination puzzle in small and large samples. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the feasible bias-corrected average forecast in finite samples. An empirical exercise, based upon data from a well known survey is also presented. Overall, these results show promise for the feasible bias-corrected average forecast.

Obtenção de óxidos a base de níquel e cobalto para reação de oxidação parcial do metano

Nickel-based catalysts supported on alumina have been widely used in various reactions to obtain synthesis gas or hydrogen. Usually, higher conversion levels are obtained by these catalysts, however, the deactivation by coke formation and sintering of metal particles are still problems to be solved. Several approaches have been employed in order to minimize these problems, among which stands out in recent years the use of additives such as oxides of alkali metals and rare earths. Similarly, the use of methodologies for the synthesis faster, easier, applicable on an industrial scale and to allow control of the microstructural characteristics of these catalysts, can together provide the solution to this problem. In this work, oxides with spinel type structure AB2O4, where A represents divalent cation and B represents trivalent cations are an important class of ceramic materials investigated worldwide in different fields of applications. The nickel cobaltite (NiCo2O4) was oxides of spinel type which has attracted considerable interest due to its applicability in several areas, such as chemical sensors, flat panel displays, optical limiters, electrode materials, pigments, electrocatalysis, electronic ceramics, among others. The catalyst precursor NiCo2O4 was prepared by a new chemical synthesis route using gelatine as directing agent. The polymer resin obtained was calcined at 350°C. The samples were calcined at different temperatures (550, 750 and 950°C) and characterized by X ray diffraction, measurements of specific surface area, temperature programmed reduction and scanning electron microscopy. The materials heat treated at 550 and 750°C were tested in the partial oxidation of methane. The set of techniques revealed, for solid preparations, the presence of the phase of spinel-type structure with the NiCo2O4 NixCo1-xO solid solution. This solid solution was identified by Rietveld refinement at all temperatures of heat treatment. The catalyst precursors calcined at 550 and 750°C showed conversion levels around 25 and 75%, respectively. The reason H2/CO was around 2 to the precursor treated at 750°C, proposed reason for the reaction of partial oxidation of methane, one can conclude that this material can be shown to produce synthesis gas suitable for use in the synthesis Fischer-Tropsch process

Controle on-line por atributos para o número de não-conformidades no item inspecionado com base em uma sequência de inspeção

This paper proposes a procedure to control on-line processes for attributes, using an Shewhart control chart with two control limits (warning limit and control limit) and will be based on a sequence of inspection (h). The inspection procedure is based on Taguchi et al. (1989), in which to inspect the item, if the number of non-conformities is higher than an upper control limit, the process needs to be stopped and some adjustment is required; and, if the last inspection h, from all items inspected present a number of non-conformities between the control limit and warning limit. The items inspected will suffer destructive inspection, being discarded after inspection. Properties of an ergodic Markov chain are used to get the expression of average cost per item and the aim was the determination of four optimized parameters: the sampling interval of the inspections (m); the constant W to draw the warning limit (W); the constant C to draw the control limit (C), where W £ C, and the length of sequence of inspections (h). Numerical examples illustrate the proposed procedure

Propagação de danos em sistemas cooperativos: propriedades termodinâmicas

High-precision calculations of the correlation functions and order parameters were performed in order to investigate the critical properties of several two-dimensional ferro- magnetic systems: (i) the q-state Potts model; (ii) the Ashkin-Teller isotropic model; (iii) the spin-1 Ising model. We deduced exact relations connecting specific damages (the difference between two microscopic configurations of a model) and the above mentioned thermodynamic quanti- ties which permit its numerical calculation, by computer simulation and using any ergodic dynamics. The results obtained (critical temperature and exponents) reproduced all the known values, with an agreement up to several significant figures; of particular relevance were the estimates along the Baxter critical line (Ashkin-Teller model) where the exponents have a continuous variation. We also showed that this approach is less sensitive to the finite-size effects than the standard Monte-Carlo method. This analysis shows that the present approach produces equal or more accurate results, as compared to the usual Monte Carlo simulation, and can be useful to investigate these models in circumstances for which their behavior is not yet fully understood

Controle on-line para o número de não-conformidades em um ítem inspecionado

The on-line processes control for attributes consists of inspecting a single item at every m produced ones. If the examined item is conforming, the production continues; otherwise, the process stops for adjustment. However, in many practical situations, the interest consist of monitoring the number of non-conformities among the examined items. In this case, if the number of non-conformities is higher than an upper control limit, the process needs to be stopped and some adjustment is required. The contribution of this paper is to propose a control system for the number of nonconforming of the inspected item. Employing properties of an ergodic Markov chain, an expression for the expected cost per item of the control system was obtained and it will be minimized by two parameters: the sampling interval and the upper limit control of the non-conformities of the examined item. Numerical examples illustrate the proposed procedure

Estimador do Tipo Núcleo para Densidades Limites de Cadeias de Markov com Espaço de Estados Geral

In this work we studied the consistency for a class of kernel estimates of f f (.) in the Markov chains with general state space E C Rd case. This study is divided into two parts: In the first one f (.) is a stationary density of the chain, and in the second one f (x) v (dx) is the limit distribution of a geometrically ergodic chain

Estimadores do tipo núcleo para a densidade de transição de uma cadeia de markov com espaço de estados geral

In this work, we studied the strong consistency for a class of estimates for a transition density of a Markov chain with general state space E ⊂ Rd. The strong ergodicity of the estimates for the density transition is obtained from the strong consistency of the kernel estimates for both the marginal density p(:) of the chain and the joint density q(., .). In this work the Markov chain is supposed to be homogeneous, uniformly ergodic and possessing a stationary density p(.,.)

Ergodicidade em cadeias de Markov não-homogêneas e cadeias de Markov com transições raras

The central objective of a study Non-Homogeneous Markov Chains is the concept of weak and strong ergodicity. A chain is weak ergodic if the dependence on the initial distribution vanishes with time, and it is strong ergodic if it is weak ergodic and converges in distribution. Most theoretical results on strong ergodicity assume some knowledge of the limit behavior of the stationary distributions. In this work, we collect some general results on weak and strong ergodicity for chains with space enumerable states, and also study the asymptotic behavior of the stationary distributions of a particular type of Markov Chains with finite state space, called Markov Chains with Rare Transitions

Magnetic Field Line Escape: Comparison with Mean Free Path

In the present work, we determine the fraction of magnetic field lines that reach the tokamak wall leaving the plasma surrounded by a chaotic layer created by resonant perturbations at the plasma edge. The chaotic layer arises in a scenario where an integrable magnetic field with reversed magnetic shear is perturbed by an ergodic magnetic limiter. For each considered line, we calculate its connection length, i.e. the number of toroidal turns that the field lines complete before reaching the wall. We represent the results in the poloidal section in which the initial coordinates are chosen. We also estimate the radial profile of the fraction of field lines, for different temperatures, whose connection lengths are smaller than the electron collisional mean free path.

Test results of a superconducting FCL using bifilar coil of BSCCO-2212

A single-phase superconducting Fault Current Limiter using a bifilar coil of BSCCO-2212 tube was tested in 220 V-60 Hz line during fault current between 1 kA to 4 kA, operating in 77 K. In this work are presented the critical current dependence as a function of an external magnetic field applied and the results can be used to predict the current limiter performance. The experimental setup is described and the test results are presented for the unit conducting a steady nominal AC current of 200 A, and also during the fault time (1 to 6 cycles). The performance of the bifilar coil to provide the limiting impedance associated with the dynamic resistance developed during the beginning of the fault was analyzed and compared with other types of superconducting current limiters.

Partial hyperbolicity for symplectic diffeomorphisms

We prove that every robustly transitive and every stably ergodic symplectic diffeomorphism on a compact manifold admits a dominated splitting. In fact, these diffeomorphisms are partially hyperbolic. (c) 2005 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Non-periodic bifurcations of one-dimensional maps

We prove that a 'positive probability' subset of the boundary of '{uniformly expanding circle transformations}' consists of Kupka-Smale maps. More precisely, we construct an open class of two-parameter families of circle maps (f(alpha,theta))(alpha,theta) such that, for a positive Lebesgue measure subset of values of alpha, the family (f(alpha,theta))(theta) crosses the boundary of the uniformly expanding domain at a map for which all periodic points are hyperbolic (expanding) and no critical point is pre-periodic. Furthermore, these maps admit an absolutely continuous invariant measure. We also provide information about the geometry of the boundary of the set of hyperbolic maps.

Destroying horseshoes via heterodimensional cycles: Generating bifurcations inside homoclinic classes

In this paper, we propose a model for the destruction of three-dimensional horseshoes via heterodimensional cycles. This model yields some new dynamical features. Among other things, it provides examples of homoclinic classes properly contained in other classes and it is a model of a new sort of heteroclinic bifurcations we call generating. © 2008 Cambridge University Press.

Test results of fault current limiter using YBCO tapes with shunt protection

A Fault Current Limiter (FCL) based on high temperature superconducting elements with four tapes in parallel were designed and tested in 220 V line for a fault current peak between 1 kA to 4 kA. The elements employed second generation (2G) HTS tapes of YBCO coated conductor with stainless steel reinforcement. The tapes were electrically connected in parallel with effective length of 0.4 m per element (16 elements connected in series) constituting a single-phase unit. The FCL performance was evaluated through over-current tests and its recovery characteristics under load current were analyzed using optimized value of the shunt protection. The projected limiting ratio achieved a factor higher than 4 during fault of 5 cycles without degradation. Construction details and further test results will be shown in the paper. © 2010 IOP Publishing Ltd.