Flow of metal in constrained plane-strain extrusion forging- Part II

With many innovations in process technology, forging is establishing itself as a precision manufacturing process: as forging is used to produce complex shapes in difficult materials, it requires dies of complex configuration of high strength and of wear-resistant materials. Extensive research and development work is being undertaken, internationally, to analyse the stresses in forging dies and the flow of material in forged components. Identification of the location, size and shape of dead-metal zones is required for component design. Further, knowledge of the strain distribution in the flowing metal indicates the degree to which the component is being work hardened. Such information is helpful in the selection of process parameters such as dimensional allowances and interface lubrication, as well as in the determination of post-forging operations such as heat treatment and machining. In the presently reported work the effect of aperture width and initial specimen height on the strain distribution in the plane-strain extrusion forging of machined lead billets is observed: the distortion of grids inscribed on the face of the specimen gives the strain distribution. The stress-equilibrium approach is used to optimise a model of flow in extrusion forging, which model is found to be effective in estimating the size of the dead-metal zone. The work carried out so far indicates that the methodology of using the stress-equilibrium approach to develop models of flow in closed-die forging can be a useful tool in component, process and die design.

Betydelser i barnfamiljsbroschyrer : Systemisk-funktionell analys av den tänkta läsaren och institutionen

This thesis concerns Swedish and Finland-Swedish brochures to families with children, presenting family allowances from the social insurance institutions in the two countries. The aim of the study is to analyse what meanings are conveyed with reference to the conceivable reader and the institution in the brochures. The material consists of information brochures in Swedish from Kela, the social insurance institution of Finland, and Försäkringskassan, the Swedish social insurance agency, issued during 2003–2006. The general theoretical framework is systemic-functional linguistics (SFL) as presented by Halliday & Matthiessen (2004) and Holmberg & Karlsson (2006). The study consists of a quantitative study of the lexical choices of the social insurance brochures. Furthermore, a qualitative process and participant analysis is annotated with the UAM Corpus tool and the results are quantified. Speech functions and modal auxiliaries are analysed qualitatively. The analysis shows that material and relational processes are most common. The relational and verbal processes are used more in the Sweden-Swedish brochures, while the material processes are more common in the Finland-Swedish brochures. The participants in the brochures are the institution, mentioned by its name, and the conceivable reader, directly addressed with “you” (du). In addition, the referent “child” is often mentioned. The participants assigned for the reader are Actor, Receiver, Carrier and Speaker. In the Finland-Swedish texts, the reader is often an Actor, while the reader in the Sweden-Swedish texts is a Carrier. Thus, the conceivable reader is an active participant who takes care of his or her own matters using the internet, communicates actively to the institution and has legal rights and obligations. The institution is visible in the texts but does not have an active role as the name of the institution is mostly used in circumstances. The institution is not often a participant, but when it is, it is Actor, Receiver, Listener and Carrier, expecting the clients to address it. Speech functions are performed in different ways. For instance, questions structure the reading process and commands are realised by modal auxiliaries, not by imperatives. The most common modal auxiliary is kan (can, may), and another common auxiliary is ska (shall, must). Statements are surrounded by subordinate clauses and adverbs that describe situations and criteria. The results of the study suggest that the brochures in the two countries are similar, in particular when produced in similar ways, that is, when the Finland-Swedish texts are not translated. Existing differences reflect the differences in the institutions, the social insurance systems and the cultural contexts. KEYWORDS: Finland-Swedish, Swedish, comparative analysis, SFL, discourse analysis, administrative language, institutional discourse, institutional communication

I konstens namn - scenen som arbetsmiljö : Arbetsplatsmobbning ur skådespelarperspektiv

Workplace bullying is a topic of current interest in Finland. Workplace bullying is found in all professions, including the artistic ones. This thesis aims to explore workplace bullying from the view of the Finland-Swedish actors as a phenomenon that within dramatic art is difficult to define due to the fact that the body and emotions of an actor constitute his or her working tools. The research aims to deepen the understanding of the actors’ working situation, and particularly of the difficulties and problems actors face when exercising their job. The research problems are: What forms of bullying are the actors exposed to? Who is bullying? How is the bullying received by the actors, and what are the possible consequences? The theoretical orientation of this thesis is based upon dialogical philosophy where phenomenology, hermeneutics and dialog meet in an orientation where the unseen is emphasized and made visible. Artistic leadership should be based upon a pedagogic understanding that by an open and equal dialog with the Other recognizes human diversity. The narrative research was undertaken by using an interview guide for the interviews with eleven actors, six women and five men with the voice of a sixth man represented by an article. The interviews, each on average 118 minutes, were recorded and transcribed. The method of discursive analysis was initiated by numerous reflective readings based on analytic induction. The inductive part of the analysis consisted of mapping out the individual experiences of bullying where after the process of finding connecting common features in the extensive material took place. The coded data was then deductively grouped together according to the research problems, and subgroups were formed for deeper description. The research findings show that workplace bullying is an everyday occurrence within the field of dramatic art. Actors are bullied by theatre managers and directors as well as by colleagues and other personnel. The main areas of bullying is depreciation of one’s professional skills, the existing jargon, sexual harassment, collective bullying and bullying because of personal qualities. A significant finding concerning this problem was the existing culture of silence. Even if actually seeing and hearing a colleague being bullied, few stood up to defend the person being bullied because of fear of retaliation. Even the person actually being the object for bullying found it difficult to take any actions.

Drivers of the accuracy of developers' early stage cost estimates in residential construction

Purpose – Preliminary cost estimates for construction projects are often the basis of financial feasibility and budgeting decisions in the early stages of planning and for effective project control, monitoring and execution. The purpose of this paper is to identify and better understand the cost drivers and factors that contribute to the accuracy of estimates in residential construction projects from the developers’ perspective. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a literature review to determine the drivers that affect the accuracy of developers’ early stage cost estimates and the factors influencing the construction costs of residential construction projects. It used cost variance data and other supporting documentation collected from two case study projects in South East Queensland, Australia, along with semi-structured interviews conducted with the practitioners involved. Findings – It is found that many cost drivers or factors of cost uncertainty identified in the literature for large-scale projects are not as apparent and relevant for developers’ small-scale residential construction projects. Specifically, the certainty and completeness of project-specific information, suitability of historical cost data, contingency allowances, methods of estimating and the estimator’s level of experience significantly affect the accuracy of cost estimates. Developers of small-scale residential projects use pre-established and suitably priced bills of quantities as the prime estimating method, which is considered to be the most efficient and accurate method for standard house designs. However, this method needs to be backed with the expertise and experience of the estimator. Originality/value – There is a lack of research on the accuracy of developers’ early stage cost estimates and the relevance and applicability of cost drivers and factors in the residential construction projects. This research has practical significance for improving the accuracy of such preliminary cost estimates.

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

Pen parameters for improving the performance of sheep imported from Australia to Persian Gulf feedlots

Summer in the Persian Gulf region presents physiological challenges for Australian sheep that are part of the live export supply chain coming from the Australian winter. Many feedlots throughout the Gulf have very high numbers of animals during June to August in order to cater for the increased demand for religious festivals. From an animal welfare perspective it is important to understand the necessary requirements of feed and water trough allowances, and the amount of pen space required, to cope with exposure to these types of climatic conditions. This study addresses parameters that are pertinent to the wellbeing of animals arriving in the Persian Gulf all year round. Three experiments were conducted in a feedlot in the Persian Gulf between March 2010 and February 2012, totalling 44 replicate pens each with 60 or 100 sheep. The applied treatments covered animal densities, feed-bunk lengths and water trough lengths. Weights, carcass attributes and health status were the key recorded variables. Weight change results showed superior performance for animal densities of ≥1.2 m2/head during hot conditions (24-h average temperatures greater than 33 °C, or a diurnal range of around 29–37 °C). However the space allowance for animals can be decreased, with no demonstrated detrimental effect, to 0.6 m2/head under milder conditions. A feed-bunk length of ≥5 cm/head is needed, as 2 cm/head showed significantly poorer animal performance. When feeding at 90 ad libitum 10 cm/head was optimal, however under a maintenance feeding regime (1 kg/head/day) 5 cm/head was adequate. A minimum water trough allowance of 1 cm/head is required. However, this experiment was conducted during milder conditions, and it may well be expected that larger water trough lengths would be needed in hotter conditions. Carcass weights were determined mainly by weights at feedlot entry and subsequent weight gains, while dressing percentage was not significantly affected by any of the applied treatments. There was no demonstrated effect of any of the treatments on the number of animals that died, or were classified as unwell. However, across all the treatments, these animals lost significantly more weight than the healthy animals, so the above recommendations, which are aimed at maintaining weight, should also be applicable for good animal health and welfare. Therefore, best practice guidelines for managing Australian sheep in Persian Gulf feedlots in the hottest months (June–August) which present the greatest environmental and physical challenge is to allow feed-bunk length 5 cm/head on a maintenance-feeding program and 10 cm/head for 90 ad libitum feeding, and the space allowance per animal should be ≥1.2 m2/head. Water trough allocation should be at least 1 cm/head with provision for more in the summer when water intake potentially doubles.

Pen parameters for improving the performance of sheep imported from Australia to Persian Gulf feedlots

Summer in the Persian Gulf region presents physiological challenges for Australian sheep that are part of the live export supply chain coming from the Australian winter. Many feedlots throughout the Gulf have very high numbers of animals during June to August in order to cater for the increased demand for religious festivals. From an animal welfare perspective it is important to understand the necessary requirements of feed and water trough allowances, and the amount of pen space required, to cope with exposure to these types of climatic conditions. This study addresses parameters that are pertinent to the wellbeing of animals arriving in the Persian Gulf all year round. Three experiments were conducted in a feedlot in the Persian Gulf between March 2010 and February 2012, totalling 44 replicate pens each with 60 or 100 sheep. The applied treatments covered animal densities, feed-bunk lengths and water trough lengths. Weights, carcass attributes and health status were the key recorded variables. Weight change results showed superior performance for animal densities of ≥1.2 m2/head during hot conditions (24-h average temperatures greater than 33 °C, or a diurnal range of around 29–37 °C). However the space allowance for animals can be decreased, with no demonstrated detrimental effect, to 0.6 m2/head under milder conditions. A feed-bunk length of ≥5 cm/head is needed, as 2 cm/head showed significantly poorer animal performance. When feeding at 90% ad libitum 10 cm/head was optimal, however under a maintenance feeding regime (1 kg/head/day) 5 cm/head was adequate. A minimum water trough allowance of 1 cm/head is required. However, this experiment was conducted during milder conditions, and it may well be expected that larger water trough lengths would be needed in hotter conditions. Carcass weights were determined mainly by weights at feedlot entry and subsequent weight gains, while dressing percentage was not significantly affected by any of the applied treatments. There was no demonstrated effect of any of the treatments on the number of animals that died, or were classified as unwell. However, across all the treatments, these animals lost significantly more weight than the healthy animals, so the above recommendations, which are aimed at maintaining weight, should also be applicable for good animal health and welfare. Therefore, best practice guidelines for managing Australian sheep in Persian Gulf feedlots in the hottest months (June–August) which present the greatest environmental and physical challenge is to allow feed-bunk length 5 cm/head on a maintenance-feeding program and 10 cm/head for 90% ad libitum feeding, and the space allowance per animal should be ≥1.2 m2/head. Water trough allocation should be at least 1 cm/head with provision for more in the summer when water intake potentially doubles.

The effects of the 2004 reduction in the price of alcohol on alcohol-related harm in Finland : A natural experiment based on register data

Changes in alcohol pricing have been documented as inversely associated with changes in consumption and alcohol-related problems. Evidence of the association between price changes and health problems is nevertheless patchy and is based to a large extent on cross-sectional state-level data, or time series of such cross-sectional analyses. Natural experimental studies have been called for. There was a substantial reduction in the price of alcohol in Finland in 2004 due to a reduction in alcohol taxes of one third, on average, and the abolition of duty-free allowances for travellers from the EU. These changes in the Finnish alcohol policy could be considered a natural experiment, which offered a good opportunity to study what happens with regard to alcohol-related problems when prices go down. The present study investigated the effects of this reduction in alcohol prices on (1) alcohol-related and all-cause mortality, and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, (2) alcohol-related morbidity in terms of hospitalisation, (3) socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality, and (4) small-area differences in interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area. Differential trends in alcohol-related mortality prior to the price reduction were also analysed. A variety of population-based register data was used in the study. Time-series intervention analysis modelling was applied to monthly aggregations of deaths and hospitalisation for the period 1996-2006. These and other mortality analyses were carried out for men and women aged 15 years and over. Socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality were assessed on a before/after basis, mortality being followed up in 2001-2003 (before the price reduction) and 2004-2005 (after). Alcohol-related mortality was defined in all the studies on mortality on the basis of information on both underlying and contributory causes of death. Hospitalisation related to alcohol meant that there was a reference to alcohol in the primary diagnosis. Data on interpersonal violence was gathered from 86 administrative small-areas in the Helsinki Metropolitan area and was also assessed on a before/after basis followed up in 2002-2003 and 2004-2005. The statistical methods employed to analyse these data sets included time-series analysis, and Poisson and linear regression. The results of the study indicate that alcohol-related deaths increased substantially among men aged 40-69 years and among women aged 50-69 after the price reduction when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. The increase was mainly attributable to chronic causes, particularly liver diseases. Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased considerably among the-over-69-year-olds. The increase in alcohol-related mortality in absolute terms among the 30-59-year-olds was largest among the unemployed and early-age pensioners, and those with a low level of education, social class or income. The relative differences in change between the education and social class subgroups were small. The employed and those under the age of 35 did not suffer from increased alcohol-related mortality in the two years following the price reduction. The gap between the age and education groups, which was substantial in the 1980s, thus further broadened. With regard to alcohol-related hospitalisation, there was an increase in both chronic and acute causes among men under the age of 70, and among women in the 50-69-year age group when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. Alcohol dependence and other alcohol-related mental and behavioural disorders were the largest category in both the total number of chronic hospitalisation and in the increase. There was no increase in the rate of interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area, and even a decrease in domestic violence. There was a significant relationship between the measures of social disadvantage on the area level and interpersonal violence, although the differences in the effects of the price reduction between the different areas were small. The findings of the present study suggest that that a reduction in alcohol prices may lead to a substantial increase in alcohol-related mortality and morbidity. However, large population group differences were observed regarding responsiveness to the price changes. In particular, the less privileged, such as the unemployed, were most sensitive. In contrast, at least in the Finnish context, the younger generations and the employed do not appear to be adversely affected, and those in the older age groups may even benefit from cheaper alcohol in terms of decreased rates of CVD mortality. The results also suggest that reductions in alcohol prices do not necessarily affect interpersonal violence. The population group differences in the effects of the price changes on alcohol-related harm should be acknowledged, and therefore the policy actions should focus on the population subgroups that are primarily responsive to the price reduction.

Hyvinvointivaltion optimaalisen köyhyyspolitiikan määrittelyä

The purpose of this research is to identify the optimal poverty policy for a welfare state. Poverty is defined by income. Policies for reducing poverty are considered primary, and those for reducing inequality secondary. Poverty is seen as a function of the income transfer system within a welfare state. This research presents a method for optimising this function for the purposes of reducing poverty. It is also implemented in the representative population sample within the Income Distribution Data. SOMA simulation model is used. The iterative simulation process is continued until a level of poverty is reached at which improvements can no longer be made. Expenditures and taxes are kept in balance during the process. The result consists of two programmes. The first programme (social assistance programme) was formulated using five social assistance parameters, all of which dealt with the norms of social assistance for adults (€/month). In the second programme (basic benefits programme), in which social assistance was frozen at the legislative level of 2003, the parameter with the strongest poverty reduction effect turned out to be one of the basic unemployment allowances. This was followed by the norm of the national pension for a single person, two parameters related to housing allowance, and the norm for financial aid for students of higher education institutions. The most effective financing parameter measured by gini-coefficient in all programmes was the percent of capital taxation. Furthermore, these programmes can also be examined in relation to their costs. The social assistance programme is significantly cheaper than the basic benefits programme, and therefore with regard to poverty, the social assistance programme is more cost effective than the basic benefits programme. Therefore, public demand for raising the level of basic benefits does not seem to correspond to the most cost effective poverty policy. Raising basic benefits has most effect on reducing poverty within the group of people whose basic benefits are raised. Raising social assistance, on the other hand, seems to have a strong influence on the poverty of all population groups. The most significant outcome of this research is the development of a method through which a welfare state’s income transfer-based safety net, which has severely deteriorated in recent decades, might be mended. The only way of doing so involves either social assistance or some forms of basic benefits and supplementing these by modifying social assistance.

Substance misuse problems during pregnancy with special emphasis on buprenorphine

Maternal drug abuse during pregnancy endangers the future health and wellbeing of the infant and growing child. On the other hand, via maternal abstinence, these problems would never occur; so the problems would be totally preventable. Buprenorphine is widely used in opioid maintenance treatment as a substitute medication. In Finland, during 2000 s buprenorphine misuse has steadily increased. In 2009 almost one third of clientele of substance treatment units were in treatment because of buprenorphine dependence. At Helsinki Women s Clinic the first child with prenatal buprenorphine exposure was born in 2001. During 1992-2001 in the three capital area maternity hospitals (Women s clinic, Maternity hospital, Jorvi hospital) 524 women were followed at special antenatal clinics due to substance abuse problems. Three control women were drawn from birth register to each case woman and matched for parity and same place and date of the index birth. According to register data mortality rate was 38-fold higher among cases than controls within 6-15 years after index birth. Especially, the risk for violent or accidental death was increased. The women with substance misuse problems had also elevated risk for viral hepatitis and psychiatric morbidity. They were more often reimbursed for psychopharmaceuticals. Disability pensions and rehabilitation allowances were more often granted to cases than controls. In total 626 children were born from these pregnancies. According to register data 38% of these children were placed in out-of-home care as part of child protection services by the age of two years, and half of them by the age of 12 years, the median follow-up time was 5.8 years. The risk for out-of-home care was associated with factors identifiable during the pre- and perinatal period. In 2002-2005 67 pregnant women with buprenorphine dependence were followed up at the Helsinki University Hospital, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology. Their pregnancies were uneventful. The prematurity rate was similar and there were no more major anomalies compared to the national statistics. The neonates were lighter compared to the national statistics. They were also born in good condition, with no perinatal hypoxia as defined by standard clinical parameters or certain biochemical markers in the cord blood: erythropoietin, S100 and cardiac troponin-t. Almost 80% of newborns developed neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) and two third of them needed morphine medication for it. Maternal smoking over ten cigarettes per day aggravated and benzodiazepine use attenuated NAS. An infant s highest urinary norbuprenorphine concentration during their first 3 days of life correlated with the duration of morphine treatment. The average length of infant s hospital stay was 25 days.

Uutta, vanhaa ja lainattua : Tampereen Kaupunkilähetyksen kristillissosiaalisen työn asemoituminen hyvinvointivaltion rakentumisessa vuosina 1939−1973

The main purpose of this study was to provide a full account of the Christian social work carried out at the Tampere City Mission (TCM) as well as the Missions sphere of operations from the Second World War to the early 1970s, comprising a period of significant change. The study consists of charting the processes of change and connections within the activities of the TCM and how examining these were linked to the general tendencies of the period, in lay work, social work, professionalization and the representation of gender. The positioning of the activities is described on the basis of these tendencies. The main sources for the study were the archives of the Mission, for example the minutes of meetings, correspondences as well as annual reports, and the archives of its partners, such as the City of Tampere, the Evangelical Lutheran parishes of Tampere and the State Welfare Administration. The archives of the Helsinki, Turku and Stockholm Missions supplied comparison reference and other material. In particular, social welfare and Christian social work technical journals of were used as printed sources. The principal method used was the genetic method of historiology. The research subject was also evaluated from the point of view of third sector research in addition to that of professionalization studies and gender studies. By the beginning of the research period, the TCM had turned more and more dedicatedly into a multipurpose social service organization maintaining social services such as old people s homes and children´s homes. This development continued, even though new areas of activity emerged and older ones fell into disuse. Social innovations sprang up, marriage counseling being one of them. On the national level, the TCM pioneered the provision of sheltered industrial work for intellectually disabled persons as well as housing services for them. As new activities were initiated, they overlapped with the established ones, and the TCM handed some of its child protection functions over to the municipality, in accordance with the current adaptation theory. The use of its own property to produce ever-changing social services may be the reason why the association s work continued on with vitality. Functional networks and political aid in the field of social services also bolstered the association. As in other Nordic countries, nonprofit organizations served as partners rather than competitors, with the State establishing institutional welfare arrangements. In the 1960s the municipal takeover of social services impacted the TCM activities. Rules for government subsidies and municipal allowances were not well established; hence these funds were not easily available, making improvements difficult. The TCM was a community in which women had a relatively strong position and an opportunity to make a difference. Female staff were reasonably equal to men, and women worked as heads of a several institutions. Care work employed a number of men, which went against the traditional segregation of labour between the sexes. The TCM s operations were from early on very professionalized, and were developed with particular care. Keywords: Christian social work, third sector, professionalization, gender

Optimal maintenance policy of a machine subject to failure

Optimal maintenance policies for a machine with degradation in performance with age and subject to failure are derived using optimal control theory. The optimal policies are shown to be, normally, of bang-coast nature, except in the case when probability of machine failure is a function of maintenance. It is also shown, in the deterministic case that a higher depreciation rate tends to reverse this policy to coast-bang. When the probability of failure is a function of maintenance, considerable computational effort is needed to obtain an optimal policy and the resulting policy is not easily implementable. For this case also, an optimal policy in the class of bang-coast policies is derived, using a semi-Markov decision model. A simple procedure for modifying the probability of machine failure with maintenance is employed. The results obtained extend and unify the recent results for this problem along both theoretical and practical lines. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the results obtained.

Long Term Dynamics in CO2 Allowance Prices and Carbon Capture Investments

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the EU market for CO2 emission allowances; specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's second period of application (2008 to 2012). We calibrate the underlying parameters for the allowance price in the long run and we also calibrate those from the Spanish wholesale electricity market. This information is then used to assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice where costs and profits are valued and the optimal investment time is determined. In other words, we study the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the impact of several variables on the critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, from a financial point of view, immediate installation does not seem justified. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically and/or a specific policy to promote these units is adopted.

Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto

Coal-fired power plants may enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. Still, this advantage may erode or even turn into disadvantage depending on CO2 emission allowance price. This price will presumably rise in both the Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012) and the first post-Kyoto years. Thus, in a carbon-constrained environment, coal plants face financial risks arising in their profit margins, which in turn hinge on their so-called "clean dark spread". These risks are further reinforced when the price of the output electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs, which differ from coal plants' costs. We aim to assess the risks in coal plants' margins. We adopt parameter values estimated from empirical data. These in turn are derived from natural gas and electricity markets alongside the EU ETS market where emission allowances are traded. Monte Carlo simulation allows to compute the expected value and risk profile of coal-based electricity generation. We focus on the clean dark spread in both time periods under different future scenarios in the allowance market. Specifically, bottom 5% and 10% percentiles are derived. According to our results, certain future paths of the allowance price may impose significant risks on the clean dark spread obtained by coal plants.