870 resultados para Combination of short term inflation forecast models


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A multi-resource multi-stage scheduling methodology is developed to solve short-term open-pit mine production scheduling problems as a generic multi-resource multi-stage scheduling problem. It is modelled using essential characteristics of short-term mining production operations such as drilling, sampling, blasting and excavating under the capacity constraints of mining equipment at each processing stage. Based on an extended disjunctive graph model, a shifting-bottleneck-procedure algorithm is enhanced and applied to obtain feasible short-term open-pit mine production schedules and near-optimal solutions. The proposed methodology and its solution quality are verified and validated using a real mining case study.

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Purpose To examine the influence of short-term miniscleral contact lens wear on corneal shape, thickness and anterior surface aberrations. Methods Scheimpflug imaging was captured before, immediately following and 3 hours after a short period (3 hours) of miniscleral contact lens wear for 10 young (mean 27 ± 5 years), healthy participants. Natural diurnal variations were considered by measuring baseline diurnal changes obtained on a separate control day without contact lens wear. Results Small but significant anterior corneal flattening was observed immediately following lens removal (overall mean 0.02 ± 0.03 mm, p < 0.001) which returned to baseline levels three hours after lens removal. During the three hour recovery period significant corneal thinning (-13.4 ± 10.5 μm) and posterior surface flattening (0.03 ± 0.02 mm) were also observed (both p < 0.01). The magnitude of posterior corneal flattening during recovery correlated with the amount of corneal thinning (r = 0.69, p = 0.03). Central corneal clearance (maximum tear reservoir depth) was not associated with corneal swelling following lens removal (r = -0.24, p > 0.05). An increase in lower-order corneal astigmatism Z(2,2) was also observed following lens wear (mean -0.144 ± 0.075 μm, p = 0.02). Conclusions Flattening of the anterior corneal surface was observed immediately following lens wear, while ‘rebound’ thinning and flattening of the posterior surface was evident following the recovery period. Modern miniscleral contact lenses that vault the cornea may slightly influence corneal shape and power but do not induce clinically significant corneal oedema during short-term wear.

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Purpose There have been only a limited number of studies examining the accommodative response that occurs when the two eyes are provided with disparate accommodative stimuli, and the results from these studies to date have been equivocal. In this study, we therefore aimed to examine the capacity of the visual system to aniso-accommodate by objectively measuring the interocular difference in the accommodation response between fellow dominant and non-dominant eyes under controlled monocular and binocular viewing conditions during short-term exposure to aniso-accommodative stimuli. Methods The accommodative response of each eye of sixteen young isometropic adults (mean age 22 ± 2 years) with normal binocular vision was measured using an open-field autorefractor during a range of testing conditions; monocularly (accommodative demands ranging from 1.32 to 4.55 D) and binocularly while altering the accommodation demand for each eye (aniso-accommodative stimuli ranging from 0.24 to 2.05 D). Results Under monocular viewing conditions, the dominant and non-dominant eyes displayed a highly symmetric accommodative response; mean interocular difference in spherical equivalent 0.01 ± 0.06 D (relative) and 0.22 ± 0.06 D (absolute) (p>0.05). During binocular viewing, the dominant eye displayed a greater accommodative response (0.11 ± 0.34 D relative and 0.24 ± 0.26 D absolute) irrespective of whether the demand of the dominant or non-dominant eye was altered (p = 0.01). Astigmatic power vectors J0 and J45 did not vary between eyes or with increasing accommodation demands under monocular or binocular viewing conditions (p>0.05). Conclusion The dominant and non-dominant eyes of young isometropic individuals display a similar consensual lag of accommodation under both monocular and binocular viewing conditions, with the dominant eye showing a small but significantly greater (by 0.12 to 0.25 D) accommodative response. Evidence of short-term aniso-accommodation in response to asymmetric accommodation demands was not observed.

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PURPOSE To quantify the influence of short-term wear of miniscleral contact lenses on the morphology of the corneo-scleral limbus, the conjunctiva, episclera and sclera. METHODS OCT images of the anterior eye were captured before, immediately following 3h of wear and then 3h after removal of a miniscleral contact lens for 10 young (27±5 years) healthy participants (neophyte rigid lens wearers). The region of analysis encompassed 1mm anterior, to 3.5mm posterior to the scleral spur. Natural diurnal variations in thickness were measured on a separate day and compensated for in subsequent analyses. RESULTS Following 3h of lens wear, statistically significant tissue thinning was observed across all quadrants, with a mean decrease in thickness of -24.1±3.6μm (p<0.001), which diminished, but did not return to baseline 3h after lens removal (-16.9±1.9μm, p<0.001). The largest tissue compression was observed in the superior quadrant (-49.9±8.5μm, p<0.01) and in the annular zone 1.5mm from the scleral spur (-48.2±5.7μm), corresponding to the approximate edge of the lens landing zone. Compression of the conjunctiva/episclera accounted for about 70% of the changes. CONCLUSIONS Optimal fitting miniscleral contact lenses worn for three hours resulted in significant tissue compression in young healthy eyes, with the greatest thinning observed superiorly, potentially due to the additional force of the eyelid, with a partial recovery of compression 3h after lens removal. Most of the morphological changes occur in the conjunctiva/episclera layers.

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Increased media exposure to layoffs and corporate quarterly financial reporting have created arguable a common perception – especially favored by the media itself – that the companies have been forced to improve their financial performance from quarter to quarter. Academically the relevant question is whether companies themselves feel that they are exposed to short-term pressure to perform even if it means that they have to compromise company’s long-term future. This paper studies this issue using results from a survey conducted among the 500 largest companies in Finland. The results show that companies in general feel moderate short-term pressure, with reasonable dispersion across firms. There seems to be a link between the degree of pressure felt, and the firm’s ownership structure, i.e. we find support for the existence of short-term versus long-term owners. We also find significant ownership related differences, in line with expectations, in how such short-term pressure is reflected in actual decision variables such as the investment criteria used.

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Functioning capital markets are a crucial part of a competitive economy since they provide the mechanisms to allocate resources. In order to be well functioning a capital market has to be efficient. Market efficiency is defined as a market where prices at any time fully reflect all available information. Basically, this means that abnormal returns cannot be predicted since they are dependent on future, presently unknown, information. The debate of market efficiency has been going on for several decades. Most academics today would probably agree that financial markets are reasonably efficient since virtually nobody has been able to achieve continuous abnormal positive returns. However, it is clear that a set of return anomalies exists, although they are apparently to small to enable substantial economic profit. Moreover, these anomalies can often be attributed to market design. The motivation for this work is to expand the knowledge of short-term trading patterns and to offer some explanations for these patterns. In the first essay the return pattern during the day is examined. On average stock prices move during two time periods of the day, namely, immediately after the opening and around the formal close of the market. Since stock prices, on average, move upwards these abnormal returns are generally positive and cause the distinct U-shape of intraday returns. In the second essay the results in the first essay are examined further. The return pattern around the former close is shown to partly be the result of manipulative action by market participants. In the third essay the focus is shifted towards trading patterns of the underlying stocks on days when index options and index futures on the stocks expire. Generally no expiration day effect was found. However, some indication of an expiration day effect was found when a large amount of open in- or at-the-money contracts existed. Also, the effects were likelier to be found for shares with high index-weight but fairly low trading volume. Last, in the forth essay the attention is turned to the behaviour of different tax clienteles around the dividend ex-day. Two groups of investors showed abnormal trading behaviour. Domestic non-financial investors, especially domestic companies, showed a dividend capturing behaviour, i.e. buying cum-dividend and selling ex-dividend shares. The opposite behaviour was found for foreign investors and domestic financial institutions. The effect was more notable for high yield, high volume stocks.

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Increased media exposure to layoffs and corporate quarterly financial reporting have created arguable a common perception – especially favored by the media itself – that the companies have been forced to improve their financial performance from quarter to quarter. Academically the relevant question is whether the companies themselves feel that they are exposed to short-term pressure to perform even if it means that they have to compromise company’s long-term future. This paper studies this issue using results from a survey conducted among the 500 largest companies in Finland. The results show that companies in general feel moderate short-term pressure, with reasonable dispersion across firms. There seems to be a link between the degree of pressure felt, and the firm’s ownership structure, i.e. we find support for the existence of short-term versus long-term owners. We also find significant ownership related differences, in line with expectations, in how such short-term pressure is reflected in actual decision variables such as the investment criteria used.

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African evangelical/Pentecostal/charismatic (EPC) Christians-previously dismissed by scholars as apolitical-are becoming increasingly active socially and politically. This chapter presents a case study of an EPC congregation in Harare. It demonstrates how the congregation provides short-term human security by responding to the needs of the poor, while at the same time creating space where people can develop the "self-expression values" necessary for long-term human security. The case study also demonstrates that even under authoritarian states, religious actors can actively choose to balance the immediate demands of short-term human security with the sometimes competing demands of long-term human security. Policymakers can benefit from a greater understanding of how religious actors strike this balance and from a greater appreciation of the variability, flexibility, and religious resources of EPC Christians in such contexts.

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Five years after the first tremors in Europe’s banking system, what makes the crisis unique is the absence of a democratically accountable decision-making framework; there is an 'executive deficit' that compounds Europe’s democratic deficit. The author argues that the only way to resolve the crisis successfully is a sustained effort to achieve a 'fourfold union' agenda: banking union, fiscal union, competitiveness union and political union. Progress must be made in parallel on each of the four components. In particular, successful progress towards banking union requires a combination of short term action, including the establishment of a temporary resolution authority to identify undercapitalised banks and to restructure them, and longer-term measures, including the creation of permanent authorities for supervision, resolution and deposit insurance.

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The ability of four operational weather forecast models [ECMWF, Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle model (ARPEGE), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), and Met Office] to generate a cloud at the right location and time (the cloud frequency of occurrence) is assessed in the present paper using a two-year time series of observations collected by profiling ground-based active remote sensors (cloud radar and lidar) located at three different sites in western Europe (Cabauw. Netherlands; Chilbolton, United Kingdom; and Palaiseau, France). Particular attention is given to potential biases that may arise from instrumentation differences (especially sensitivity) from one site to another and intermittent sampling. In a second step the statistical properties of the cloud variables involved in most advanced cloud schemes of numerical weather forecast models (ice water content and cloud fraction) are characterized and compared with their counterparts in the models. The two years of observations are first considered as a whole in order to evaluate the accuracy of the statistical representation of the cloud variables in each model. It is shown that all models tend to produce too many high-level clouds, with too-high cloud fraction and ice water content. The midlevel and low-level cloud occurrence is also generally overestimated, with too-low cloud fraction but a correct ice water content. The dataset is then divided into seasons to evaluate the potential of the models to generate different cloud situations in response to different large-scale forcings. Strong variations in cloud occurrence are found in the observations from one season to the same season the following year as well as in the seasonal cycle. Overall, the model biases observed using the whole dataset are still found at seasonal scale, but the models generally manage to well reproduce the observed seasonal variations in cloud occurrence. Overall, models do not generate the same cloud fraction distributions and these distributions do not agree with the observations. Another general conclusion is that the use of continuous ground-based radar and lidar observations is definitely a powerful tool for evaluating model cloud schemes and for a responsive assessment of the benefit achieved by changing or tuning a model cloud

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Studies of diabetes mellitus in the streptozotocin rat model suggest that sexual dysfunctions may result from diabetes-induced alterations of the neuroendocrine-reproductive tract axis. Our investigation was performed to better define the effects of short-term hyperglycaemia on rat epididymal sperm quantity, quality and transit time, using both natural mating and artificial in utero insemination protocols. Male rats were made diabetic with streptozotocin (sc, 40 mg/kg), whereas controls received vehicle. Sexual behaviour was tested after 15 days and sperm fertilizing ability was checked 22 days after the injection through natural mating and artificial in utero insemination. Other parameters such as daily sperm production, testosterone levels, as well as sperm morphology and motility were also investigated. Fifty per cent of the diabetic animals showed no copulatory behaviour during tests and the number of animals reaching ejaculation was smaller in the diabetic group when compared with the control group (33% vs. 83%). Diabetes resulted in decreased body and reproductive organ weights, as well as diminished sperm counts in the testis and epididymis, that were associated with diminution of plasmatic testosterone levels. After natural mating, there was a decrease in the fertility in the diabetic adult male rats (25.5%) compared with control animals (81.5%). However, distal cauda epididymal sperm from diabetic rats displayed normal fertilization ability (91.5%) using in utero insemination. There were no effects of hyperglycaemia on sperm transit time in the epididymis and on spermatogenesis. Our results indicate that diabetes mellitus produces reproductive dysfunction, but does not compromise sperm fertilizing ability in the cauda epididymis in this experimental model.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Although clinicians recognize that postoperative wound management in patients with vulvar cancer (VC) is challenging, the prevalence and risk factors for different types of short-term wound complications (WCs) remain unclear. The aims of this study were: (1) to determine the period prevalence of postoperative short-term WCs and (2) to identify risk factors associated with short-term WCs in patients with VC.

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Far from being static transmission units, synapses are highly dynamical elements that change over multiple time scales depending on the history of the neural activity of both the pre- and postsynaptic neuron. Moreover, synaptic changes on different time scales interact: long-term plasticity (LTP) can modify the properties of short-term plasticity (STP) in the same synapse. Most existing theories of synaptic plasticity focus on only one of these time scales (either STP or LTP or late-LTP) and the theoretical principles underlying their interactions are thus largely unknown. Here we develop a normative model of synaptic plasticity that combines both STP and LTP and predicts specific patterns for their interactions. Recently, it has been proposed that STP arranges for the local postsynaptic membrane potential at a synapse to behave as an optimal estimator of the presynaptic membrane potential based on the incoming spikes. Here we generalize this approach by considering an optimal estimator of a non-linear function of the membrane potential and the long-term synaptic efficacy—which itself may be subject to change on a slower time scale. We find that an increase in the long-term synaptic efficacy necessitates changes in the dynamics of STP. More precisely, for a realistic non-linear function to be estimated, our model predicts that after the induction of LTP, causing long-term synaptic efficacy to increase, a depressing synapse should become even more depressing. That is, in a protocol using trains of presynaptic stimuli, as the initial EPSP becomes stronger due to LTP, subsequent EPSPs should become weakened and this weakening should be more pronounced with LTP. This form of redistribution of synaptic efficacies agrees well with electrophysiological data on synapses connecting layer 5 pyramidal neurons.

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BACKGROUND Epidemiologic and experimental data have suggested that chlorogenic acid, which is a polyphenol contained in green coffee beans, prevents diet-induced hepatic steatosis and insulin resistance. OBJECTIVE We assessed whether the consumption of chlorogenic acid-rich coffee attenuates the effects of short-term fructose overfeeding, dietary conditions known to increase intrahepatocellular lipids (IHCLs), and blood triglyceride concentrations and to decrease hepatic insulin sensitivity in healthy humans. DESIGN Effects of 3 different coffees were assessed in 10 healthy volunteers in a randomized, controlled, crossover trial. IHCLs, hepatic glucose production (HGP) (by 6,6-d2 glucose dilution), and fasting lipid oxidation were measured after 14 d of consumption of caffeinated coffee high in chlorogenic acid (C-HCA), decaffeinated coffee high in chlorogenic acid, or decaffeinated coffee with regular amounts of chlorogenic acid (D-RCA); during the last 6 d of the study, the weight-maintenance diet of subjects was supplemented with 4 g fructose · kg(-1) · d(-1) (total energy intake ± SD: 143 ± 1% of weight-maintenance requirements). All participants were also studied without coffee supplementation, either with 4 g fructose · kg(-1) · d(-1) (high fructose only) or without high fructose (control). RESULTS Compared with the control diet, the high-fructose diet significantly increased IHCLs by 102 ± 36% and HGP by 16 ± 3% and decreased fasting lipid oxidation by 100 ± 29% (all P < 0.05). All 3 coffees significantly decreased HGP. Fasting lipid oxidation increased with C-HCA and D-RCA (P < 0.05). None of the 3 coffees significantly altered IHCLs. CONCLUSIONS Coffee consumption attenuates hepatic insulin resistance but not the increase of IHCLs induced by fructose overfeeding. This effect does not appear to be mediated by differences in the caffeine or chlorogenic acid content. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00827450.