Restrição externa, dependência estrutural de commodities primárias e o investimento direto externo no Brasil

As the beginning of the discussion about the reprimarization process of the Brazilian exportations, or about a deindustrialization process of the country foreign sales, this study purpose that the discussion, actually, should be about the existence of the commodities structural dependence as a way to face the foreign restrictions. Therefore the intention is to show that, historically, the way that the Brazilian economy has crossed for its development depends of the foreign capital, mainly in its way of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and in the balance generated by the primary products, which make us try to understand the impact of this capital for the equilibrium of the Brazilian Payment Balance and also for the economy. These points were discussed not only based on the Brazilian classic writers as Francisco Oliveira, Caio Prado Jr. and Celso Furtado, but also using the newest studies which contributes to point the causes and consequences of the external capital dependence in the actual scenario. The conclusions acquired in the end of the study, indicates the fact that the Brazilian specialization in products of low aggregated value is not recent. Brazil is, historically, a competitive country in primary products. At the same time, the country importation always was a pressure factor of the National Payments Balance, being composed by products with more aggregated value. According to some authors, this characteristic of the Brazilian Economy will be surpassed with the economic opening process, which will attract external capital making possible the modernization of the Brazilian productive sector. Therefore, we can claim that the FDI, in the way it has been inserted in the country, does not offer the opportunity to get out of the commodities dependence, as generators of the payment balances, because the country international competitive standard didn t get any important changes, keeping itself out of the step related to the global standard which has been intensified in products with more aggregated value. The changes in the national insertion standard directed to more technological products is really important to surpass the historical scenario of commodities dependence, making the country less vulnerable to external crisis.

Provocações e debates : contribuições para o estudo do Brasil social

Sílvio Romero, crítico, ensaísta e historiador da literatura brasileira, cujo nome de batismo era Sílvio Vasconcelos da Silveira Ramos, nasceu em Lagarto, Sergipe, em 1851, e morreu no Rio de Janeiro, em 1914.

Ydinperheen politiikka

The research topic is the formation of nuclear family understanding and the politicization of nuclear family. Thus, the question is how did family historically become understood particularly as nuclear family and why did it become central in terms of politics and social? The research participates in discussions on the concept and phenomena of family. Central theme of analysis is to ask what is family? Family is seen as historically contingent and the discussions on the concept and phenomena are done via historical analysis. Center of attention is nuclear family, thus, a distinction between the concepts of family and nuclear family is made to be able to focus on historically specific phenomena of nuclear family. Family contrary to the concept of nuclear family -- in general is seen to be able to refer to families in all times and all cultures, as well as all types of families in our times and culture. The nuclear family understanding is examined through two separate themes, that of parent-child relationships and marital relations. Two simultaneous processes give nuclear family relations its current form: on the one hand the marital couple as the basis of family is eroding and losing its capacity to hold the family together; on the other, in Finland at least from 1950s on, the normal development of the child has became to be seen ontologically bound to the (biological) mother and (via her to) the father. In the nucleus of the family is the child: the biological, psychological and social processes of normal development are seen ontologically bound to the nuclear family relations. Thus, marriages can collapse, but nuclear family is unbreakable. What is interesting is the historical timing: as nuclear family relations had just been born, the marriage dived to a crisis. The concept and phenomena of nuclear family is analyzed in the context of social and politics (in Finnish these two collapses in the concept of yhteiskunnallinen , which refers both to a society as natural processes as well as to the state in terms of politics). Family is political and social in two senses. First, it is understood as the natural origin of the social and society. Human, by definition, is understood as a social being and the origin of social, in turn, is seen to be in the family. Family is seen as natural to species. Disturbances in family life lead to un-social behaviour. Second, family is also seen as a political actor of rights and obligations: family is obligated to control the life of its members. The state patronage is seen at the same time inevitable family life is way too precious to leave alone -- and problematic as it seems to disturb the natural processes of the family or to erode the autonomy of it. The rigueur of the nuclear family is in the role it seems to hold in the normal development of the child and the future of the society. The disturbances in the families first affect the child, then the society. In terms of possibility to re-think the family the natural and political collide: the nuclear family seems as natural, unchangeable, un- negotiable. Nuclear family is historically ontologised. The biological, psychological and social facts of family seem to be contrary to the idea of negotiation and politics the natural facts of family problematise the politics of family. The research material consists of administrational documents, memoranda, consultation documents, seminar reports, educational writings, guidebooks and newspaper articles in family politics between 1950s and 1990s.

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5A degrees. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960-1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region.

Construindo o consenso econômico [finalmente?]

Apresenta resenha da publicação - Crônicas da convergência: ensaios sobre temas já não tão polêmicos - que reúne uma coletânea de artigos sobre temas da política econômica brasileira.

Ergonomia e sua ingerência nas múltiplas modalidades de trabalho executadas na Câmara dos Deputados

Aborda a ergonomia e sua intervenção no trabalho de modo a proporcionar conforto, segurança e desempenho eficiente. Analisa as formas de transformação das condições de trabalho e a metodologia a ser utilizada para resolução dos problemas advindos da falta de conhecimento sobre o assunto. Apresenta pesquisa sobre as atividades de servidores e afastamentos por doença em dois setores da Câmara dos Deputados nos anos de 1998 e 2000. Sugere que a causa presumida dos distúrbios relacionados ao trabalho nesta instituição se dá pelo desconhecimento das normas ergonômicas e de sua aplicação.

A gente se vê por aqui? : percepções de espectadores infantis sobre crianças na televisão

Esta dissertação teve por objetivo conhecer as perspectivas infantis sobre as crianças que atuam na televisão brasileira. O estudo parte do entendimento de que na contemporaneidade o contato de crianças com diferentes mídias é intenso e que isto, aliado a outras experiências, proporciona a estruturação de modos de ser e estar no mundo. Interessada em aproximar-se desses modos de ser e estar, a pesquisa organizou-se no sentido de travar um contato direto com as crianças espectadoras através da dinâmica dos Grupos de Discussão, numa abordagem de Pesquisa-Intervenção. Além de traçar uma abordagem histórica da televisão no Brasil e da relação desta mídia com as crianças neste país, o trabalho aponta possibilidades de reflexão sobre processos de subjetivação e significação do mundo por parte dos meninos e meninas interlocutores da pesquisa. Noções de recepção, de fama e beleza, de trabalho etc. são discutidas com e a partir do que as crianças formulam e enunciam. Os principais autores que fundamentaram a pesquisa são Mikhail Bakhtin, Lucia Rabello de Castro e Solange Jobim e Souza.

Política publica de saúde: análise da agenda do Estado do Rio de Janeiro

Esta tese analisa a política de saúde no estado do Rio de Janeiro, focando nas modificações estruturais produzidas pela adoção da contrarreforma de natureza neoliberal. O marco temporal da análise é partir de 2006, com a eleição de Sérgio Cabral governador do estado. Num contexto histórico mais amplo, buscamos compreender os processos que conduziram as escolhas políticas desde a hegemonia da política neoliberal no Brasil na década de 1990, até a situação atual. Da análise das prioridades do governo estadual centradas na adoção de novos modelos de gestão e seus resultados, conclui-se, do ponto de vista financeiro e social, que a proposta de contrarreforma na saúde continua direcionando a política para ampliar a participação privada no setor público, que permite a transferência de recursos públicos para ente privados. Entretanto a eficiência da gestão privada se mostrou falaciosa, os quesitos de qualidade, eficiência e economicidade na assistência à saúde, usados para justificar ideologicamente a contrarreforma, não foram alcançados. Ao contrário a gestão privada ampliou os gastos operacionais em saúde e não foi capaz de manter constante a oferta de serviços.

Decadal hydroclimatic variability in the western coastal United States: temporal and spatial variations in precipitation, streamflow, and lake level

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We have analyzed streamflow variations recorded at 15 USGS gauging stations in California during the past 90 years or so. The anomalies (departures from the 1960-1990 mean discharge) of streamflow on annual-to-decadal time scales are strongly correlated with precipitation anomalies in each drainage basin. ... Although causes of the decadal climate (precipitation) variability are not known with certainty, the use of streamflow records may help us understand the relative strengths of moisture sources and shift of the jet stream in atmospheric circulation.

东北地区降水与湿度气候资料的栅格化技术

应用地理信息系统和数据库等计算机技术,以东北地区DEM为基础,生成坡度、坡向及遮蔽度等小地形因子数据库和经度、纬度及海拔高度等大地形因子数据库。利用东北地区1960年～1990年30a平均的降水与湿度资料,采用趋势面分析、逐步回归、宏观地理因子模拟与小地形订正等方法,分区构筑了东北3省降水和湿度空间分布的数学模型。进而利用GIS平台建立分辨率为1km2的东北地区4月～10月份和全年降水与湿度的GRID格式专题地图,所得结果与东北地区实际降水和湿度分布较为吻合,可满足多方面的应用

Analysis of the sea-level variability along the Chinese coast and estimation of the impact of a CO2-perturbed atmospheric circulation

The relationship between monthly sea-level data measured at stations located along the Chinese coast and concurrent large-scale atmospheric forcing in the period 1960-1990 is examined. It is found that sea-level varies quite coherently along the whole coast, despite the geographical extension of the station set. A canonical correlation analysis between sea-level and sea-level pressure (SLP) indicates that a great part of the sea-level variability can be explained by the action of the wind stress on the ocean surface. The relationship between sea-level and sea-level pressure is analyzed separately for the summer and winter half-years. In winter, one factor affecting sea-level variability at all stations is the SLP contrast between the continent and the Pacific Ocean, hence the intensity of the winter Monsoon circulation. Another factor that affects coherently all stations is the intensity of the zonal circulation at mid-latitudes. In the summer half year, on the other hand, the influence of SLP on sea-level is spatially less coherent: the stations in the Yellow Sea are affected by a more localized circulation anomaly pattern, whereas the rest of the stations is more directly connected to the intensity of the zonal circulation. Based on this analysis, statistical models (different for summer and winter) to hindcast coastal sealevel anomalies from the large-scale SLP field are formulated. These models have been tested by fitting their internal parameters in a test period and reproducing reasonably the sea-level evolution in an independent period. These statistical models are also used to estimate the contribution of the changes of the atmospheric circulation on sea-level along the Chinese coast in an altered climate. For this purpose the ouput of 150 year-long experiment with the coupled ocean-atmosphere model ECHAM1-LSG has been analyzed, in which the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases was continuously increased from 1940 until 2090, according to the Scenario A projection of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. In this experiment the meridional (zonal) circulation relevant for sea-level tends to become weaker (stronger) in the winter half year and stronger (weaker) in summer. The estimated contribution of this atmospheric circulation changes to coastal sea-level is of the order of a few centimeters at the end of the integration, being in winter negative in the Yellow Sea and positive in the China Sea with opposite signs in the summer half-year.

La memoria colectiva en el cine latinoamericano. Continuidades y rupturas entre el 'nuevo cine latinoamericano' de los años 60 y el cine de finales de los años 90

Esta tesis se propone explorar la representación de la memoria histórica en el cine latinoamericano. Para ello, establece un diálogo entre dos momentos de la historia del cine regional: el Nuevo Cine Latinoamericano de los años 60, erigido en movimiento cinematográfico con características peculiares, y el cine latinoamericano producido en el umbral del siglo XXI. Y lo hace a partir de la exploración de ciertas características comunes en cuanto a los temas, las formas narrativas, el modo de producción, pero muy especialmente a partir de la preocupación compartida por la representación de la memoria histórica de las grandes mayorías, tanto como de los grupos sociales minoritarios, cuyas voces han sido excluidas de la historiografía tradicional –vale decir, la “historia oficial- escrita por las elites que han gobernado los países latinoamericanos desde su constitución como repúblicas. Es propósito de esta tesis mostrar que en América Latina el desarrollo de los movimientos cinematográficos de ruptura se ha dado en estrecha vinculación con las conflictivas circunstancias económicas, sociales y políticas de diferentes momentos históricos, y la forma en que estos movimientos han contribuido a la identidad del cine latinoamericano. El primer capítulo constituye un recorrido por el movimiento del Nuevo Cine Latinoamericano de los años 60, sus películas y principales postulados estéticos y políticos, y la forma en que este movimiento, al colocar en el centro temas enteramente nuevos como la representación de la memoria colectiva de los excluidos, provoca una ruptura con el cine producido hasta ese entonces en la región y un giro en la identidad que tomara la producción cinematográfica regional a partir de entonces. En el segundo capítulo, se analiza la representación de la memoria colectiva de la Crisis Bancaria de 1999 en Ecuador hecha por la película nacional “Fuera de Juego” y la forma en que esta representación, constituida muchas veces como contraanálisis de la interpretación que de aquel suceso dieron los medios de información, dialoga con los postulados del Nuevo Cine Latinoamericano. El tercer y último capítulo está a dedicado a otros dos estudios de caso sobre la representación de la memoria histórica en el cine latinoamericano de finales de los años 90. Se trata de la cinta colombiana “La Vendedora de Rosas” y la argentina “Pizza, Birra, Faso”, cuya narración, aunque apelando a muy diferentes estrategias estéticas y narrativas, coincide con “Fuera de Juego” en cuanto a la necesidad de poner sobre el tapete la memoria colectiva sobre el despojo operado por la aplicación de las políticas neoliberales en América Latina durante los 90, y, por lo tanto, dialoga con las propuestas estético-políticas del cine realizado en la región 30 años atrás. También es propósito de esta tesis valorar –sin dejar de cuestionar- la validez y vigencia que los postulados estéticos y políticos, así como las estrategias y tácticas de producción de los años 60, pueden tener para la producción cinematográfica contemporánea del continente, teniendo en cuenta que el circuito cinematográfico comercial –hoy como ayer- priva a las pantallas de las urgencias sociales de América Latina.

Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North Atlantic jet and European precipitation

The detection of anthropogenic climate change can be improved by recognising the seasonality in the climate change response. This is demonstrated for the North Atlantic jet (zonal wind at 850 hPa, U850) and European precipitation responses projected by the CMIP5 climate models. The U850 future response is characterised by a marked seasonality: an eastward extension of the North Atlantic jet into Europe in November-April, and a poleward shift in May-October. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the multi-model mean response in U850 in these two extended seasonal means emerges by 2035-2040 for the lower--latitude features and by 2050-2070 for the higher--latitude features, relative to the 1960-1990 climate. This is 5-15 years earlier than when evaluated in the traditional meteorological seasons (December--February, June--August), and it results from an increase in the signal to noise ratio associated with the spatial coherence of the response within the extended seasons. The annual mean response lacks important information on the seasonality of the response without improving the signal to noise ratio. The same two extended seasons are demonstrated to capture the seasonality of the European precipitation response to climate change and to anticipate its emergence by 10-20 years. Furthermore, some of the regional responses, such as the Mediterranean precipitation decline and the U850 response in North Africa in the extended winter, are projected to emerge by 2020-2025, according to the models with a strong response. Therefore, observations might soon be useful to test aspects of the atmospheric circulation response predicted by some of the CMIP5 models.

Perspectivas de longo prazo da economia brasileira: uma analise exploratoria

As perspectivas de longo prazo da economia brasileira são examinadas tomando como referência principal a chamada Teoria do Crescimento Endógeno. Estudaremos a situação daquelas variáveis onde já há consenso de sua importância para o processo de desenvolvimento. O artigo mostra que o desempenho de nosso sistema educacional é muito ruim, mesmo para padrões latino americanos. Existem inúmeras restrições de mercado e outras barreiras ao comércio internacional e à adoção tecnológica e o grau de abertura do país é muito pequeno. Os serviços de infra-estrutura são insuficientes e caros, enquanto o sistema tributário é muito concentrado e distorcido. Enquanto persistir este quadro é pouco provável que o país cresça de forma sustentável e duradoura a taxas próximas daquelas de duas décadas passadas. Entretanto, a privatização no setor de infra-estrutura pode levar a um boom temporário devido ao aumento dos investimentos necessários para satisfazer a enorme demanda reprimida. Uma condição necessária, mas não suficiente, é a estabilidade de preços.