Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Hydraulic tracer studies in a pilot scale subsurface flow constructed wetland

Current design procedures for Subsurface Flow (SSF) Wetlands are based on the simplifying assumptions of plug flow and first order decay of pollutants. These design procedures do yield functional wetlands but result in over-design and inadequate descriptions of the pollutant removal mechanisms which occur within them. Even though these deficiencies are often noted, few authors have attempted to improve modelling of either flow or pollutant removal in such systems. Consequently the Oxley Creek Wetland, a pilot scale SSF wetland designed to enable rigorous monitoring, has recently been constructed in Brisbane, Australia. Tracer studies have been carried out in order to determine the hydraulics of this wetland prior to commissioning it with sealed sewage. The tracer studies will continue during the wetland's commissioning and operational phases. These studies will improve our understanding of the hydraulics of newly built SSF wetlands and the changes brought on by operational factors such as biological films and wetland plant root structures. Results to date indicate that the flow through the gravel beds is not uniform and cannot be adequately modelled by a single parameter, plug flow with dispersion, model. We have developed a multiparameter model, incorporating four plug flow reactors, which provides a better approximation of our experimental data. With further development this model will allow improvements to current SSF wetland design procedures and operational strategies, and will underpin investigations into the pollutant removal mechanisms at the Oxley Creek Wetland. (C) 1997 IAWQ. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Biological monitoring of a xenomaterial for grafting: an evaluation in critical-size calvarial defects

Our purpose was to evaluate the osteoconduction potential of mixed bovine bone (MBB) xenografts as an alternative for bone grafting of critical-size defects in the calvaria of rats. After surgery, in the time intervals of 1, 3, 6, and 9 months, rats were killed and their skulls collected, radiographed and histologically prepared for analysis. The data obtained from histological analysis reported that the particles of MBB did not promote an intense immunological response, evidencing its biocompatibility in rats. Our results clearly showed the interesting evidence that MBB was not completely reabsorbed at 9 months while a small amount of newly formed bone was deposited by osteoprogenitor cells bordering the defect. However, this discrete bone-forming stimulation was unable to regenerate the bone defect. Overall, our results suggest that the properties of MBB are not suitable for stimulating intense bone regeneration in critical bone defects in rats.

Robust model-order reduction of complex biological processes

This paper addresses robust model-order reduction of a high dimensional nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) model of a complex biological process. Based on a nonlinear, distributed parameter model of the same process which was validated against experimental data of an existing, pilot-scale BNR activated sludge plant, we developed a state-space model with 154 state variables in this work. A general algorithm for robustly reducing the nonlinear PDE model is presented and based on an investigation of five state-of-the-art model-order reduction techniques, we are able to reduce the original model to a model with only 30 states without incurring pronounced modelling errors. The Singular perturbation approximation balanced truncating technique is found to give the lowest modelling errors in low frequency ranges and hence is deemed most suitable for controller design and other real-time applications. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conspicuous males suffer higher predation risk: visual modelling and experimental evidence from lizards

Colour pattern variation is a striking and widespread phenomenon. Differential predation risk between individuals is often invoked to explain colour variation, but empirical support for this hypothesis is equivocal. We investigated differential conspicuousness and predation risk in two species of Australian rock dragons, Ctenophorus decresii and C. vadnappa. To humans, the coloration of males of these species varies between 'bright' and 'dull'. Visual modelling based on objective colour measurements and the spectral sensitivities of avian visual pigments showed that dragon colour variants are differentially conspicuous to the visual system of avian predators when viewed against the natural background. We conducted field experiments to test for differential predation risk, using plaster models of 'bright' and 'dull' males. 'Bright' models were attacked significantly more often than 'dull' models suggesting that differential conspicuousness translates to differential predation risk in the wild. We also examined the influence of natural geographical range on predation risk. Results from 22 localities suggest that predation rates vary according to whether predators are familiar with the prey species. This study is among the first to demonstrate both differential conspicuousness and differential predation risk in the wild using an experimental protocol. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Field hydraulic properties of an Alfisol under various fallow systems in southwestern Nigeria

The effects of various fallow management systems and cropping intensities on water infiltration were measured on an Alfisol at Ibadan in southwestern Nigeria. The objective was to determine the influence of the land use systems (a combination of crop-fallow sequences and intercropping types) on soil hydraulic properties obtained by disc permeameter and double-ring infiltration measurements. The experiment was established in 1989 as a split-plot design with four replications. The main plots were natural fallow, planted Pueraria phaseoloides and planted Leucaena leucocephala. The subplots were 1 year of maize/cassava intercrop followed by 3-year fallow (25% cropping intensity), or 2-year fallow (33% cropping intensity), or 1-year fallow (50% cropping intensity), or no fallow period (100% cropping intensity). Water infiltration rates and sorptivities were measured under saturated and unsaturated flow. Irrespective of land use, infiltration rates at the soil surface (121-324 cm h(-1)) were greater than those measured at 30 cm depth (55-144 cm h(-1)). This indicated that fewer large pores were present below 30 cm depth compared with 0-30 cm, depth. Despite some temporal variation, sorptivities with the highest mean value of 93.5 cm h(-1/2) increased as the cropping intensity decreased, suggesting a more continuous macropore system under less intensive land use systems. This was most likely due to continuous biopores created by perennial vegetation under long fallow systems. Intercropped maize and cassava yields also increased as cropping intensity decreased. The weak relationship between crop yields and hydraulic conductivity/infiltration rates suggests that the rates were not limiting.

Chemical and biological studies from an Azorean macroalga: Ulva rigida

3rd Portuguese Meeting on Medicinal Chemistry and 1st Portuguese-Spanish-Brazilian Meeting on Medicinal Chemistry, Aveiro, 28-30 Novembro 2012.

Modelling a Rotating Shaft as an Elastically Restrained Bernoulli-Euler Beam

Industrial rotating machines may be exposed to severe dynamic excitations due to resonant working regimes. Dealing with the bending vibration, problem of a machine rotor, the shaft - and attached discs - can be simply modelled using the Bernoulli-Euler beam theory, as a continuous beam subjected to a specific set of boundary conditions. In this study, the authors recall Rayleigh's method to propose an iterative strategy, which allows for the determination of natural frequencies and mode shapes of continuous beams taking into account the effect of attached concentrated masses and rotational inertias, including different stiffness coefficients at the right and the left end sides. The algorithm starts with the exact solutions from Bernoulli-Euler's beam theory, which are then updated through Rayleigh's quotient parameters. Several loading cases are examined in comparison with the experimental data and examples are presented to illustrate the validity of the model and the accuracy of the obtained values.

A theoretical study on modelling the respiratory tract with ladder networks by means of intrinsic fractal geometry

Fractional order modeling of biological systems has received significant interest in the research community. Since the fractal geometry is characterized by a recurrent structure, the self-similar branching arrangement of the airways makes the respiratory system an ideal candidate for the application of fractional calculus theory. To demonstrate the link between the recurrence of the respiratory tree and the appearance of a fractional-order model, we develop an anatomically consistent representation of the respiratory system. This model is capable of simulating the mechanical properties of the lungs and we compare the model output with in vivo measurements of the respiratory input impedance collected in 20 healthy subjects. This paper provides further proof of the underlying fractal geometry of the human lungs, and the consequent appearance of constant-phase behavior in the total respiratory impedance.

Modelling an e-learning environment for learning programming languages

It is widely accepted that solving programming exercises is fundamental to learn how to program. Nevertheless, solving exercises is only effective if students receive an assessment on their work. An exercise solved wrong will consolidate a false belief, and without feedback many students will not be able to overcome their difficulties. However, creating, managing and accessing a large number of exercises, covering all the points in the curricula of a programming course, in classes with large number of students, can be a daunting task without the appropriated tools working in unison. This involves a diversity of tools, from the environments where programs are coded, to automatic program evaluators providing feedback on the attempts of students, passing through the authoring, management and sequencing of programming exercises as learning objects. We believe that the integration of these tools will have a great impact in acquiring programming skills. Our research objective is to manage and coordinate a network of eLearning systems where students can solve computer programming exercises. Networks of this kind include systems such as learning management systems (LMS), evaluation engines (EE), learning objects repositories (LOR) and exercise resolution environments (ERE). Our strategy to achieve the interoperability among these tools is based on a shared definition of programming exercise as a Learning Object (LO).