Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

Marital loss, mental health and the role of perceived social support : findings from six waves of an Australian population based panel study

Objectives: To investigate the impact of transitions out of marriage (separation, widowhood) on the self reported mental health of men and women, and examine whether perceptions of social support play an intervening role. ---------- Methods: The analysis used six waves (2001–06) of an Australian population based panel study, with an analytical sample of 3017 men and 3225 women. Mental health was measured using the MHI-5 scale scored 0–100 (α=0.97), with a higher score indicating better mental health. Perceptions of social support were measured using a 10-item scale ranging from 10 to 70 (α=0.79), with a higher score indicating higher perceived social support. A linear mixed model for longitudinal data was used, with lags for marital status, mental health and social support. ---------- Results: After adjustment for social characteristics there was a decline in mental health for men who separated (−5.79 points) or widowed (−7.63 points), compared to men who remained married. Similar declines in mental health were found for women who separated (−6.65 points) or became widowed (−9.28 points). The inclusion of perceived social support in the models suggested a small mediation effect of social support for mental health with marital loss. Interactions between perceived social support and marital transitions showed a strong moderating effect for men who became widowed. No significant interactions were found for women. ---------- Conclusion: Marital loss significantly decreased mental health. Increasing, or maintaining, high levels of social support has the potential to improve widowed men's mental health immediately after the death of their spouse.

Linear stern waves in finite depth channels

This paper formulates an analytically tractable problem for the wake generated by a long flat bottom ship by considering the steady free surface flow of an inviscid, incompressible fluid emerging from beneath a semi-infinite rigid plate. The flow is considered to be irrotational and two-dimensional so that classical potential flow methods can be exploited. In addition, it is assumed that the draft of the plate is small compared to the depth of the channel. The linearised problem is solved exactly using a Fourier transform and the Wiener-Hopf technique, and it is shown that there is a family of subcritical solutions characterised by a train of sinusoidal waves on the downstream free surface. The amplitude of these waves decreases as the Froude number increases. Supercritical solutions are also obtained, but, in general, these have infinite vertical velocities at the trailing edge of the plate. Consideration of further terms in the expansions suggests a way of canceling the singularity for certain values of the Froude number.

Atmospheric deposition as a source of stormwater pollution in Gold Coast, Australia

Atmospheric deposition is one of the most important pollutant pathways for urban stormwater pollution. Atmospheric deposition can be in the form of dry and wet depositions which have distinct characteristics in terms of pollutant types, pollutant sources and influential parameters. This paper discusses the outcomes of a comprehensive study undertaken to identify the characteristics of wet and dry deposition of pollutants. Sample collection was undertaken at eight study sites with distinct characteristics. Four sites were close to road sites with varying traffic characteristics, whilst the other four sites had different land use characteristics. Dry deposition samples were collected for different antecedent dry days and wet deposition samples were collected immediately after rainfall events. The dry deposition was found to increase with the antecedent dry days and consisted of relatively coarser particles (greater than 1 µm) when compared to wet deposition. The wet deposition showed a strong affinity to rainfall depth, but was not related to the antecedent dry period. It was also found that smaller size particles (less than 1 µm) travel much longer distances from the source and deposit mainly with the wet deposition

Fiduciary Duty and the Atmospheric Trust

This book explores the application of concepts of fiduciary duty or public trust in responding to the policy and governance challenges posed by policy problems that extend over multiple terms of government or even, as in the case of climate change, human generations. The volume brings together a range of perspectives including leading international thinkers on questions of fiduciary duty and public trust, Australia's most prominent judicial advocate for the application of fiduciary duty, top law scholars from several major universities, expert commentary from an influential climate policy think-tank and the views of long-serving highly respected past and present parliamentarians. The book presents a detailed examination of the nature and extent of fiduciary duty, looking at the example of Australia and having regard to developments in comparable jurisdictions. It identifies principles that could improve the accountability of political actors for their responses to major problems that may extend over multiple electoral cycles.

Modelling travelling waves in spatially constrained environment solutions

In this study, we consider how Fractional Differential Equations (FDEs) can be used to study the travelling wave phenomena in parabolic equations. As our method is conducted under intracellular environments that are highly crowded, it was discovered that there is a simple relationship between the travelling wave speed and obstacle density.

Higher-order spectral analysis of nonlinear ocean surface gravity waves

Higher-order spectral analysis is used to detect the presence of secondary and tertiary forced waves associated with the nonlinearity of energetic swell observed in 8- and 13-m water depths. Higher-order spectral analysis techniques are first described and then applied to the field data, followed by a summary of the results.

Exploratory investigation of atmospheric total suspended particulate matter and heavy metals in urban air

Atmospheric concentration of total suspended particulate matter (TSP) and associated heavy metals are a great concern due to their adverse health impacts and contribution to stormwater pollution. This paper discusses the outcomes of a study which investigated the variation of atmospheric TSP and heavy metal concentrations with traffic and land use characteristics during weekdays and weekends. Data for this study was gathered from fifteen sites at the Gold Coast, Australia using a high volume air sampler. The study detected consistently high TSP concentrations during weekdays compared to weekends. This confirms the significant influence of traffic related sources on TSP loads during weekdays. Both traffic and land use related sources equally contribute to TSP during weekends. Almost all the measured heavy metals showed high concentration on weekdays compared to weekends indicating significant contributions from traffic related emissions. Among the heavy metals, Zn concentration was the highest followed by Pb. It is postulated that re-suspension of previously deposited reserves was the main Pb source. Soil related sources were the main contributors of Mn.

Models of collective cell motion for cell populations with different aspect ratio : diffusion, proliferation and travelling waves

Continuum, partial differential equation models are often used to describe the collective motion of cell populations, with various types of motility represented by the choice of diffusion coefficient, and cell proliferation captured by the source terms. Previously, the choice of diffusion coefficient has been largely arbitrary, with the decision to choose a particular linear or nonlinear form generally based on calibration arguments rather than making any physical connection with the underlying individual-level properties of the cell motility mechanism. In this work we provide a new link between individual-level models, which account for important cell properties such as varying cell shape and volume exclusion, and population-level partial differential equation models. We work in an exclusion process framework, considering aligned, elongated cells that may occupy more than one lattice site, in order to represent populations of agents with different sizes. Three different idealizations of the individual-level mechanism are proposed, and these are connected to three different partial differential equations, each with a different diffusion coefficient; one linear, one nonlinear and degenerate and one nonlinear and nondegenerate. We test the ability of these three models to predict the population level response of a cell spreading problem for both proliferative and nonproliferative cases. We also explore the potential of our models to predict long time travelling wave invasion rates and extend our results to two dimensional spreading and invasion. Our results show that each model can accurately predict density data for nonproliferative systems, but that only one does so for proliferative systems. Hence great care must be taken to predict density data for with varying cell shape.

Role of traffic in atmospheric accumulation of heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

Traffic related emissions have been recognised as one of the main sources of air pollutants. In the research study discussed in this paper, variability of atmospheric total suspended particulate matter (TSP), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and heavy metal (HM) concentrations with traffic and land use characteristics during weekdays and weekends were investigated. Data required for the study were collected from a range of sampling sites to ensure a wide mix of traffic and land use characteristics. The analysis undertaken confirmed that zinc has the highest concentration in the atmospheric phase during weekends as well as weekdays. Although the use of leaded gasoline was discontinued a decade ago, lead was the second most commonly detected heavy metal. This is attributed to the association of previously generated lead with roadside soil and re-suspension to the atmosphere. Soil related particles are the primary source of TSP and manganese to the atmosphere. The analysis further revealed that traffic sources are dominant in gas phase PAHs compared to the other sources during weekdays. Land use related sources become important contributors to atmospheric PAHs during weekends when traffic sources are at their minimal levels.

Cold and heat waves in the United States

Extreme cold and heat waves, characterised by a number of cold or hot days in succession, place a strain on people’s cardiovascular and respiratory systems. The increase in deaths due to these waves may be greater than that predicted by extreme temperatures alone. We examined cold and heat waves in 99 US cities for 14 years (1987–2000) and investigated how the risk of death depended on the temperature threshold used to define a wave, and a wave’s timing, duration and intensity. We defined cold and heat waves using temperatures above and below cold and heat thresholds for two or more days. We tried five cold thresholds using the first to fifth percentiles of temperature, and five heat thresholds using the ninety-fifth to ninety-ninth percentiles. The extra wave effects were estimated using a two-stage model to ensure that their effects were estimated after removing the general effects of temperature. The increases in deaths associated with cold waves were generally small and not statistically significant, and there was even evidence of a decreased risk during the coldest waves. Heat waves generally increased the risk of death, particularly for the hottest heat threshold. Cold waves of a colder intensity or longer duration were not more dangerous. Cold waves earlier in the cool season were more dangerous, as were heat waves earlier in the warm season. In general there was no increased risk of death during cold waves above the known increased risk associated with cold temperatures. Cold or heat waves earlier in the cool or warm season may be more dangerous because of a build up in the susceptible pool or a lack of preparedness for cold or hot temperatures.

Tactically-driven nonmonotone travelling waves

Models of cell invasion incorporating directed cell movement up a gradient of an external substance and carrying capacity-limited proliferation give rise to travelling wave solutions. Travelling wave profiles with various shapes, including smooth monotonically decreasing, shock-fronted monotonically decreasing and shock-fronted nonmonotone shapes, have been reported previously in the literature. The existence of tacticallydriven shock-fronted nonmonotone travelling wave solutions is analysed for the first time. We develop a necessary condition for nonmonotone shock-fronted solutions. This condition shows that some of the previously reported shock-fronted nonmonotone solutions are genuine while others are a consequence of numerical error. Our results demonstrate that, for certain conditions, travelling wave solutions can be either smooth and monotone, smooth and nonmonotone or discontinuous and nonmonotone. These different shapes correspond to different invasion speeds. A necessary and sufficient condition for the travelling wave with minimum wave speed to be nonmonotone is presented. Several common forms of the tactic sensitivity function have the potential to satisfy the newly developed condition for nonmonotone shock-fronted solutions developed in this work.