Estimating learning models from experimental data

We study the statistical properties of three estimation methods for a model of learning that is often fitted to experimental data: quadratic deviation measures without unobserved heterogeneity, and maximum likelihood withand without unobserved heterogeneity. After discussing identification issues, we show that the estimators are consistent and provide their asymptotic distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that ignoring unobserved heterogeneity can lead to seriously biased estimations in samples which have the typical length of actual experiments. Better small sample properties areobtained if unobserved heterogeneity is introduced. That is, rather than estimating the parameters for each individual, the individual parameters are considered random variables, and the distribution of those random variables is estimated.

A integração das TIC no ensino secundário em Cabo Verde : um estudo de caso

Actualmente, um desafio permanente se coloca ao sistema educativo em todo o mundo devido aos impulsos decorrentes das incomensuráveis possibilidades que as TIC oferecem ao processo de ensino e aprendizagem e na mudança que elas acarretam nas atitudes dos agentes educativos e na própria estrutura escolar. Em Cabo Verde as TIC têm despertado interesse dos responsáveis da educação no concernente ao seu uso em contexto pedagógico e a existência de projectos voltados para sua utilização no ensino secundário é uma realidade. Com efeito, iniciou-se no ano lectivo 2009/2010 a experiência de integração das TIC em duas escolas secundárias do país. Porém, volvidos cinco anos, importa saber como estão sendo vivenciadas estas experiências, particularmente no que diz respeito à disponibilidade e acessibilidade das TIC por parte dos principais agentes educativos, a forma como se organiza a escola para colocá-las à disposição destes, o grau de satisfação dos professores com relação à sua formação em TIC, as atitudes dos professores e alunos face as TIC e o nível de sua utilização em contexto de sala de aula. De modo que, o problema em estudo centra-se em saber como está a decorrer o processo de integração das TIC no ensino secundário, no âmbito das atuais políticas de incentivo ao uso das tecnologias na educação. Do ponto de vista metodológico optamos por um estudo de caso de natureza exploratória (Yin, 1993; Gil, 1994; Morgado, 2012) e para recolher os dados aplicamos dois inquéritos por questionário, em formato papel, um dirigido a alunos, (uma turma por ano) e outro a todos os professores da escola em estudo. Foram também realizadas duas entrevistas a dois dirigentes da escola. A escolha de fontes quantitativas (inquéritos) e qualitativas (entrevistas) tem base de sustentação nos argumentos apresentados por Yin (1994) e Coutinho (2005). As conclusões do estudo apontam para o reconhecimento de que há ainda muito por fazer no tocante à integração pedagógica das TIC, principalmente no que tange à disponibilidade das TIC (a maioria dos alunos não tem acesso aos computadores e não existem softwares), na organização da escola (falta de técnicos qualificados, e inexistência de projecto pedagógico para uso das TIC), na formação dos professores (necessidade de formação continua) e na ausência das TIC nas práticas pedagógicas, conforme nos ensina a literatura especializada sobre a integração das TIC (Pelgrum, 2001; Paiva, 2002; Silva & Miranda, 2005; Amante, 2007; OIE, 2008, Sunkel, 2009; Barbosa & Loureiro, 2011).

Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach

This paper surveys asset allocation methods that extend the traditional approach. An important feature of the the traditional approach is that measures the risk and return tradeoff in terms of mean and variance of final wealth. However, there are also other important features that are not always made explicit in terms of investor s wealth, information, and horizon: The investor makes a single portfolio choice based only on the mean and variance of her final financial wealth and she knows the relevant parameters in that computation. First, the paper describes traditional portfolio choice based on four basic assumptions, while the rest of the sections extend those assumptions. Each section will describe the corresponding equilibrium implications in terms of portfolio advice and asset pricing.

Demand for pharmaceutical drugs: A choice modelling experiment

Despite the importance of supplier inducement and brand loyalty inthe drug purchasing process, little empirical evidence is to be foundwith regard to the influence that these factors exert on patients decisions. Under the new scenario of easier access to information,patients are becoming more demanding and even go as far asquestioning their physicians prescription. Furthermore, newregulation also encourages patients to adopt an active role in thedecision between brand-name and generic drugs. Using a statedpreference model based on a choice survey, I have found evidenceof how significant physicians prescription and pharmacists recommendation become throughout the drug purchase process and,to what extent, brand loyalty influences the final decision. Asfar as we are aware, this paper is the first to explicitlytake consumers preferences into account rather than focusingon the behavior of health professionals.

Impact of physical activity on energy balance, food intake and choice in normal weight and obese children in the setting of acute social stress: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Psychological stress negatively influences food intake and food choices, thereby contributing to the development of childhood obesity. Physical activity can also moderate eating behavior and influence calorie intake. However, it is unknown if acute physical activity influences food intake and overall energy balance after acute stress exposure in children. We therefore investigated the impact of acute physical activity on overall energy balance (food intake minus energy expenditure), food intake, and choice in the setting of acute social stress in normal weight (NW) and overweight/obese (OW/OB) children as well as the impact of psychological risk factors. METHOD: After receiving written consent from their parents, 26 NW (BMI < 90(th) percentile) and 24 7-to 11-year-old OW (n = 5)/OB (n = 19, BMI ≥ 90(th) percentile) children were randomly allocated using computer-generated numbers (1:1, after stratification for weight status) to acute moderate physical or to sedentary activity for 30 min. Afterwards, all children were exposed to an acute social stressor. Children and their parents completed self-report questionnaires. At the end of the stressor, children were allowed to eat freely from a range of 12 different foods (6 sweet/6 salty; each of low/high caloric density). Energy balance, food intake/choice and obesity-related psychological risk factors were assessed. RESULTS: Lower overall energy balance (p = 0.019) and a decreased choice of low density salty foods (p < 0.001) in NW children compared with OW/OB children was found after acute moderate physical activity but not sedentary activity. Independent of their allocation, OW/OB children ate more high density salty foods (104 kcal (34 to 173), p = 0.004) following stress. They scored higher on impulsive behavior (p = 0.005), restrained eating (p < 0.001) and parental corporal punishment (p = 0.03), but these psychological factors were not related to stress-induced food intake/choice. Positive parenting tended to be related to lower intake of sweet high density food (-132 kcal, -277 to 2, p = 0.054). CONCLUSIONS: In the setting of stress, acute moderate physical activity can address energy balance in children, a benefit which is especially pronounced in the OW/OB. Positive parenting may act as a protective factor preventing stress-induced eating of comfort food. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT01693926 The study was a pilot study of a project funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (CRSII3_147673).

The choice of titling system in land

This paper analyzes the choice of the socially optimal titling systemassuming rational individual choices about recording, assurance andregistration decisions. It focuses on the enforcement of propertyrights on land under private titling and the two existing publictitling systems, recording and registration. When the reduction in theexpected costs of eviction compensates the higher cost of initialregistration, it is more efficient to introduce a registration systemrather than a recording system. The development of private "titleassurance" improves the standing of recording as compared toregistration. This improvement depends, however, on the efficiency ofthe assurance technology and, also, on corrective taxation that isneeded to align individual optimization, which disregards the transferelement in eviction, with social objectives.

Dynamic optimal law enforcement with learning

We incorporate the process of enforcement learning by assuming that the agency's current marginal cost is a decreasing function of its past experience of detecting and convicting. The agency accumulates data and information (on criminals, on opportunities of crime) enhancing the ability to apprehend in the future at a lower marginal cost.We focus on the impact of enforcement learning on optimal stationary compliance rules. In particular, we show that the optimal stationary fine could be less-than-maximal and the optimal stationary probability of detection could be higher-than-otherwise.

Recurrent hyperinflations and learning

This paper uses a model of boundedly rational learning to accountfor the observations of recurrent hyperinflations in the lastdecade. We study a standard monetary model where the fullyrational expectations assumption is replaced by a formaldefinition of quasi-rational learning. The model under learningis able to match remarkably well some crucial stylized factsobserved during the recurrent hyperinflations experienced byseveral countries in the 80's. We argue that, despite being asmall departure from rational expectations, quasi-rationallearning does not preclude falsifiability of the model and itdoes not violate reasonable rationality requirements.

Eliciting consumers preferences using stated preference discrete choice models: Contingent ranking versus choice experiment

The aim of this paper is twofold: firstly, to carry out a theoreticalreview of the most recent stated preference techniques used foreliciting consumers preferences and, secondly, to compare the empiricalresults of two dierent stated preference discrete choice approaches.They dier in the measurement scale for the dependent variable and,therefore, in the estimation method, despite both using a multinomiallogit. One of the approaches uses a complete ranking of full-profiles(contingent ranking), that is, individuals must rank a set ofalternatives from the most to the least preferred, and the other usesa first-choice rule in which individuals must select the most preferredoption from a choice set (choice experiment). From the results werealize how important the measurement scale for the dependent variablebecomes and, to what extent, procedure invariance is satisfied.

Influence of learning on range expansion and adaptation to novel habitats.

Learning has been postulated to 'drive' evolution, but its influence on adaptive evolution in heterogeneous environments has not been formally examined. We used a spatially explicit individual-based model to study the effect of learning on the expansion and adaptation of a species to a novel habitat. Fitness was mediated by a behavioural trait (resource preference), which in turn was determined by both the genotype and learning. Our findings indicate that learning substantially increases the range of parameters under which the species expands and adapts to the novel habitat, particularly if the two habitats are separated by a sharp ecotone (rather than a gradient). However, for a broad range of parameters, learning reduces the degree of genetically-based local adaptation following the expansion and facilitates maintenance of genetic variation within local populations. Thus, in heterogeneous environments learning may facilitate evolutionary range expansions and maintenance of the potential of local populations to respond to subsequent environmental changes.

Ignoring information in binary choice with continuous variables: When is less 'more'?

When can a single variable be more accurate in binary choice than multiple sources of information? We derive analytically the probability that a single variable (SV) will correctly predict one of two choices when both criterion and predictor are continuous variables. We further provide analogous derivations for multiple regression (MR) and equal weighting (EW) and specify the conditions under which the models differ in expected predictive ability. Key factors include variability in cue validities, intercorrelation between predictors, and the ratio of predictors to observations in MR. Theory and simulations are used to illustrate the differential effects of these factors. Results directly address why and when one-reason decision making can be more effective than analyses that use more information. We thus provide analytical backing to intriguing empirical results that, to date, have lacked theoretical justification. There are predictable conditions for which one should expect less to be more.

The Relationship between Teachers and Students in the Classroom: Communicative Language Teaching Approach and Cooperative Learning Strategy to Improve Learning

The aim of this research is to to investigate how a supportive relationship between teachers and students in the classroom can improve the learning process. By having a good relationship with students, teachers can offer to students chances to be motivated and feel engaged in the learning process. Students will be engaged actively in the learning instead of being passive learners. I wish to investigate how using communicative approach and cooperative learning strategies while teaching do affect and improve students’ learning performance. To achieve these goals qualitative data collection was used as the primary method. The results show that teachers and students value a supportive and caring relationship between them and that interaction is essential to the teacher-student relationship. This sense of caring and supporting from teachers motivates students to become a more interested learner. Students benefit and are motivated when their teachers create a safe and trustful environment. And also the methods and strategies teachers uses, makes students feel engaged and stimulated to participate in the learning process. The students have in their mind that a positive relationship with their teachers positively impacts their interest and motivation in school which contributes to the enhancement of the learning process.