Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001

Using a new dataset on capital account openness, we investigate why equity return correlations changed over the last century. Based on a new, long-run dataset on capital account regulations in a group of 16 countries over the period 1890-2001, we show that correlations increase as financial markets are liberalized. These findings are robust to controlling for both the Forbes-Rigobon bias and global averages in equity return correlations. We test the robustness of our conclusions, and show that greater synchronization of fundamentals is not the main cause of increasing correlations. These results imply that the home bias puzzle may be smaller than traditionally claimed.

The Sustainable Debts of Philip II: A Reconstruction of Spain's Fiscal Position, 1560-1598

The defaults of Philip II have attained mythical status as the origin of sovereign debt crises. Four times during his reign the king failed to honor his debts and had to renegotiate borrowing contracts. In this paper, we reassess the fiscal position of Habsburg Spain. New archival evidence allows us to derive comprehensive estimates of debt and revenue. These show that primary surpluses were sufficient to make the king's debt sustainable in most scenarios. Spain's debt burden was manageable up to the 1580s, and its fiscal position only deteriorated for good after the defeat of the "Invincible Armada." We also estimate fiscal policy reaction functions, and show that Spain under the Habsburgs was at least as "responsible" as the US in the 20th century or as Britain in the 18th century. Our results suggest that the outcome of uncertain events such as wars may influence on a history of default more than strict adherence to fiscal rules.

Financial Repression in a Natural Experiment: Loan Allocation and the Change in the Usury Laws in 1714

If financial deepening aids economic growth, then financial repression should be harmful. We use a natural experiment – the change in the English usury laws in 1714 – to analyze the effects of interest rate restrictions. We use a sample of individual loan transactions to demonstrate how the reduction of the legal maximum rate of interest affected the supply and demand for credit. Average loan size and minimum loan size increased strongly, and access to credit worsened for those with little ‘social capital.’ While we have no direct evidence that loans were misallocated, the discontinuity in loan receipts makes this highly likely. We conclude that financial repression can undermine the positive effects of financial deepening.

Poor, Hungry and Stupid: Numeracy and the Impact of High Food Prices in Industrializing Britain, 1780-1850

This paper argues that low levels of nutrition impaired cognitive development in industrializing England, and that welfare transfers mitigated the adverse effects of high food prices. Age heaping is used as an indicator of numeracy, as derived from census data. For the cohorts from 1780-1850, we analyse the effect of high grain prices during the Napoleonic Wars. We show that numeracy declined markedly for those born during the war years, especially when wheat was dear. Crucially, where the Old Poor Law provided for generous relief payments, the adverse impact of high prices for foodstuffs was mitigated. Finally, we show some tentative evidence that Englishmen born in areas with low income support selected into occupations with lower cognitive requirements.

Utilité clinique des ultrasons osseux quantitatifs dans le dépistage de l'ostéoporose [Clinical utility of quantitative bone ultrasonography in the staging of osteoporosis]

Osteoporosis is well recognized as a public health problem in industrialized countries. Because of the efficiency of new treatments to decrease fracture risk, it is of a major interest to detect the patients who should benefit from such treatments. A diagnosis of osteoporosis is necessary before to start a specific treatment. This diagnosis is based on the measurement of the skeleton (hip and spine) with dual X-ray absorptiometry, using diagnostic criteria established by the World Health Organisation (WHO). In Switzerland, indications for bone densitometry are limited to precise situations. This technique cannot be applied for screening. For this purpose, peripheral measurements and particularly quantitative ultrasounds of bone seem to be promising. Indeed, several prospective studies clearly showed their predictive power for hip fracture risk in women aged more than 65 years. In order to facilitate the clinical use of bone ultrasounds, thresholds of risk of fracture and osteoporosis of the hip will be shortly published. This will integrate bone ultrasound in a global concept including bone densitometry and its indications, but also other risk factors for osteoporosis recognized by the Swiss association against osteoporosis (ASCO).

A tumor-specific cellular environment at the brain invasion border of adamantinomatous craniopharyngiomas.

Craniopharyngiomas (CP) are benign epithelial tumors of the sellar region and can be clinicopathologically distinguished into adamantinomatous (adaCP) and papillary (papCP) variants. Both subtypes are classified according to the World Health Organization grade I, but their irregular digitate brain infiltration makes any complete surgical resection difficult to obtain. Herein, we characterized the cellular interface between the tumor and the surrounding brain tissue in 48 CP (41 adaCP and seven papCP) compared to non-neuroepithelial tumors, i.e., 12 cavernous hemangiomas, 10 meningiomas, and 14 metastases using antibodies directed against glial fibrillary acid protein (GFAP), vimentin, nestin, microtubule-associated protein 2 (MAP2) splice variants, and tenascin-C. We identified a specific cell population characterized by the coexpression of nestin, MAP2, and GFAP within the invasion niche of the adamantinomatous subtype. This was especially prominent along the finger-like protrusions. A similar population of presumably astroglial precursors was not visible in other lesions under study, which characterize them as distinct histopathological feature of adaCP. Furthermore, the outer tumor cell layer of adaCP showed a distinct expression of MAP2, a novel finding helpful in the differential diagnosis of epithelial tumors in the sellar region. Our data support the hypothesis that adaCP, unlike other non-neuroepithelial tumors of the central nervous system, create a tumor-specific cellular environment at the tumor-brain junction. Whether this facilitates the characteristic infiltrative growth pattern or is the consequence of an activated Wnt signaling pathway, detectable in 90% of these tumors, will need further consideration.

The Speed of the Financial Revolution: Evidence from Hoare’s Bank

Finance is important for development, yet the onset of modern economic growth in Britain lagged the British financial revolution by over a century. We present evidence from a new West-End London private bank to explain this delay. Hoare’s Bank loaned primarily to a highly select and well-born clientele, although it did not discriminate against “unknown” borrowers in the early 18th century. It could not extend credit more generally because of government restrictions (usury limits) and policies (frequent wars). Britain’s financial development could have aided growth substantially, had it not been for the rigidities and turmoil introduced by government interference.

The Three Horsemen of Growth: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe

How did Europe overtake China? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors, and use it to explain how European per capita incomes and urbanization rates could surge ahead of Chinese ones. That living standards could exceed subsistence levels at all in a Malthusian setting should be surprising. Rising fertility and falling mortality ought to have reversed any gains. We show that productivity growth in Europe can only explain a small fraction of rising living standards. Population dynamics - changes of the birth and death schedules - were far more important drivers of the longrun Malthusian equilibrium. The Black Death raised wages substantially, creating important knock-on effects. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, raising urban wages and attracting migrants from rural areas. European cities were unhealthy, especially compared to Far Eastern ones. Urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by more frequent wars (fed by city wealth) and disease spread by trade. Thus, higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. Without technological change, our model can account for the sharp rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes. We complement our calibration exercise with a detailed analysis of intra-European growth in the early modern period. Using a panel of European states in the period 1300-1700, we show that war frequency can explain a good share of the divergent fortunes within Europe.

On the Structural Difference between the Evolutionary Approach of Young and that of Kandori, Mailath, and Rob

We provide robust examples of symmetric two-player coordination games in normal form that reveal that equilibrium selection by the evolutionary model of Young (1993) is essentially different from equilibrium selection by the evolutionary model of Kandori, Mailath and Rob (1993).

Financiamento dos Sistema de Saude

Este Relatório sobre a Saúde no Mundo foi produzido sob a direcção geral de Carissa Etienne, Assistente do Director-Geral, Sistemas e Serviços de Saúde e Anarfi Asamoa-Baah, Director Geral Adjunto. Os redactores principais froam David B Evans, Riku Elovainio e Gary Humphreys; com contribuições de Daniel Chisholm, Joseph Kutzin, Sarah Russell, Priyanka Saksena e Ke Xu. Contribuições sob a forma de caixas de texto e análises foram fornecidos por: Ole Doetinchem, Adelio Fernandes Antunes, Justine Hsu, Chandika K. Indikadahena, Jeremy Lauer, Nathalie van de Maele, Belgacem Sabri, Hossein Salehi, Xenia Scheil-Adlung (ILO) and Karin Stenberg. Sugestões e comentários foram recebidos dos Directores Regionais, Assistentes do Director-Geral e respectivas equipas. Análises, dados e revisões da organização do texto, vários rascunhos ou secções específicas foram fornecidos por (em adição às pessoas jáacima mencionadas): Dele Abegunde, Michael Adelhardt, Hector Arreola, Guitelle Baghdadi-Sabeti, Dina Balabanova, Dorjsuren Bayarsaikhan, Peter Berman, Melanie Bertram, Michael Borowitz, Reinhard Busse, Alexandra Cameron, Guy Carrin, Andrew Cassels, Eleonora Cavagnero, John Connell, David de Ferranti, Don de Savigny, Varatharajan Durairaj, Tamás Evetovits, Josep Figueras, Emma Fitzpatrick, Julio Frenk, Daniela Fuhr, Ramiro Guerrero, Patricia Hernandez Pena, Hans V Hogerzeil, Kathleen Holloway, Melitta Jakab, Elke Jakubowski, Christopher James, Mira Johri, Matthew Jowett, Joses Kirigia, Felicia Knaul, Richard Laing, Nora Markova, Awad Mataria, Inke Mathauer, Don Matheson, Anne Mills, Eduardo Missoni, Laurent Musango, Helena Nygren-Krug, Ariel Pablos-Mendez, Anne-Marie Perucic, Claudia Pescetto, Jean Perrot, Alexander Preker, Magdalena Rathe, Dag Rekve, Ritu Sadana, Rocio Saenz, Thomas Shakespeare, Ian Smith, Peter C Smith, Alaka Singh, Ruben Suarez Berenguela, Tessa Tan-Torres Edejer, Richard Scheffler, Viroj Tangcharoensathien, Fabrizio Tediosi, Sarah Thomson, Ewout van Ginneken, Cornelis van Mosseveld e Julia Watson. A redacção do Relatório foi informada por muitos indivíduos de várias instituições que forneceram documentos de suporte; estes documentos de suporte podem ser encontrados em: http://www.who.int/healthsystems/topics/financing/healthreport/whr_background/en Michael Reid editou as cópias do Relatório, Gaël Kernen produziu as figuras e Evelyn Omukubi forneceu o valioso apoio secretarial e administrativo. O desenho e paginação foi feito por Sophie Guetaneh Aguettant e Cristina Ortiz. Ilustração por Edel Tripp (http://edeltripp.daportfolio.com). A tradução foi realizada por Jorge Cabral e Aurélio Floriano e revista por Aurélio Floriano e Paulo Ferrinho, do Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, da Universidade Nova de Lisboa - Lisboa, Portugal. A publicação foi produzida com o apoio da Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa (CPLP), sob autorização do Director Geral da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS). As informações contidas neste Relatório não podem, de forma alguma, ser tomadas como a expressão das posições da CPLP

Expérimentation et clinique électroencéphalographiques entre physiologie, neurologie et psychiatrie (Suisse, 1935-1965)

The electroencephalogram (EEG), invented by the German psychiatrist Hans Berger in 1924, reached the neurophysiological laboratories and several clinical contexts in the mid-30s. In Switzerland, some skeptical physiologists and enthusiastic psychiatrists paved the way for its integration, but it was only after the Second World War that an emerging field of epileptology became part of a process of technological and epistemological innovation which raised great expectations and produced a large body of research at the crossroads of physiology, neurology and psychiatry. An informal network was created, characterized by clinical, scientific and local institutional cultures. The EEG also made it possible to detect some clinical entities, not however without transforming them, as in the case of epilepsy. Some attempts to probe psychiatric diseases and subjects with the EEG are described as negotiated relationships between clinical observations, subjective manifestations or symptoms and inscriptions of a spontaneous or elicited electrical brain activity. These attempts shape a clinical and experimental cerebral subject, which is analyzed in this article from the point of view of its technical aspects and the concrete procedures on which it depends.

Cardiac Function Assessed by Transesophageal Echocardiography During Pectus Excavatum Repair

Background. We assessed end-diastolic right ventricular (RV) dimensions and left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction by use of intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography before and after surgical correction of pectus excavatum in adults. Methods. A prospective study was conducted including 17 patients undergoing surgical correction of pectus excavatum according to the technique of Ravitch-Shamberger between 1999 and 2004. Intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography was performed under general anesthesia before and after surgery to assess end-diastolic RV dimensions and LV ejection fraction. The end-diastolic RV diameter and area were measured in four-chamber and RV inflow-outflow view, and the RV volume was calculated from these data. The LV was assessed by transgastric short-axis view, and its ejection fraction was calculated by use of the Teichholz formula. Results. The end-diastolic RV diameter, area, and volume all significantly increased after surgery (mean values +/- SD, respectively: 2.4 +/- 0.8 cm versus 3.0 +/- 0.9 cm, p < 0.001; 12.5 +/- 5.2 cm(2) versus 18.4 +/- 7.5 cm(2), p < 0.001; and 21.7 +/- 11.7 mL versus 40.8 +/- 23 mL, p < 0.001). The LV ejection fraction also significantly increased after surgery (58.4% +/- 15% versus 66.2% +/- 6%, p < 0.001). Conclusions. Surgical correction of pectus excavatum according to Ravitch-Shamberger technique results in a significant increase in end-diastolic RV dimensions and a significantly increased LV ejection fraction. (Ann Thorac Surg 2010; 89: 240-4) (C) 2010 by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons

TBS (trabecular bone score) and diabetes-related fracture risk.

CONTEXT: Type 2 diabetes is associated with increased fracture risk but paradoxically greater bone mineral density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS) is derived from the texture of the spine dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image and is related to bone microarchitecture and fracture risk, providing information independent of BMD. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the ability of lumbar spine TBS to account for increased fracture risk in diabetes. DESIGN AND SETTING: We performed a retrospective cohort study using BMD results from a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada. Patients: We included 29,407 women 50 years old and older with baseline DXA examinations, among whom 2356 had diagnosed diabetes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lumbar spine TBS was derived for each spine DXA examination blinded to clinical parameters and outcomes. Health service records were assessed for incident nontraumatic major osteoporotic fractures (mean follow-up 4.7 years). RESULTS: Diabetes was associated with higher BMD at all sites but lower lumbar spine TBS in unadjusted and adjusted models (all P < .001). The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for a measurement in the lowest vs the highest tertile was less than 1 for BMD (all P < .001) but was increased for lumbar spine TBS [aOR 2.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.30-2.97]. Major osteoporotic fractures were identified in 175 women (7.4%) with and 1493 (5.5%) without diabetes (P < .001). Lumbar spine TBS was a BMD-independent predictor of fracture and predicted fractures in those with diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio 1.27, 95% CI 1.10-1.46) and without diabetes (hazard ratio 1.31, 95% CI 1.24-1.38). The effect of diabetes on fracture was reduced when lumbar spine TBS was added to a prediction model but was paradoxically increased from adding BMD measurements. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine TBS predicts osteoporotic fractures in those with diabetes, and captures a larger portion of the diabetes-associated fracture risk than BMD.

A Single High Dose of Oral Vitamin D3 Is Not Enough to Correct Insufficiency and Deficiency in a Rheumatologic Population

Introduction: Vitamin D plays a major role in bone metabolism and neuromuscular function. Supplementation with vitamin D is effective to reduce the risk of fall and of fracture. However adherence to oral daily vitamin D supplementation is low. Screening and correcting vitamin D insufficiency in a general rheumatologic population could improve both morbidity and quality of life in these patients with chronic painful disorders and at high risk of osteoporosis. After determining the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in this population, we evaluated if supplementation with a single high dose of oral 25-OH vitamin D3 was sufficient to correct this abnormality. Methods: During one month (November 2009), levels of 25-OH vitamin D were systematically determined in our rheumatology outpatient clinic and classified into three groups: vitamin D deficiency (<10 μg/l), vitamin D insufficiency (10 to 30 μg/l) or normal vitamin D (>30 μg/l). Patients with insufficiency or deficiency received respectively a single high dose of 300000 IU or 600000 IU oral vitamin D3. In addition, all patients with osteoporosis were prescribed daily supplement of calcium (1 g) and vitamin D (800 IU). 25-OH vitamin D levels were reevaluated after 3 months. Results: Vitamin D levels were initially determined in 292 patients (mean age 53, 211 women, 87% Caucasian). 77% had inflammatory rheumatologic disease (IRD), 20% osteoporosis (OP) and 12% degenerative disease (DD). Vitamin D deficiency was present in 20 (6.8%), while 225 (77.1%) had insufficiency. Of the 245 patients with levels <30 μg/l, a new determination of vitamin D level was available in 173 (71%) at 3 months. Conclusion: Vitamin D insufficiency is highly prevalent in our rheumatologic population (84%), and is not adequately corrected by a single high dose of oral vitamin D3 in more than half of the patients with IRD and DD. In patients with OP, despite association of a single high dose with daily oral vitamin D supplementation, 40% of patients are still deficient when reevaluated at 3 months.