ANN based day-ahead ancillary services forecast for electricity market simulation

Adequate decision support tools are required by electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services (AS) represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. Based on the ancillary services forecasting, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead ancillary services markets. For this reason, ancillary services market simulation is being included in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator that can be used by market players to test and enhance their bidding strategies. The paper presents the methodology used to undertake ancillary services forecasting, based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach. ANNs are used to day-ahead prediction of non-spinning reserve (NS), regulation-up (RU), and regulation down (RD). Spinning reserve (SR) is mentioned as past work for comparative analysis. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

Análise das deslocações do Elefante Africano (Loxodonta africana) em função de factores ambientais e actividades humanas na Reserva Florestal de Moribane, Moçambique

Dissertação de Mestrado, Gestão e Conservação da Natureza, 10 de Dezembro de 2015, Universidade dos Açores.

Alright: a distinctive pathway of change from the 18th century to the present day

The origins of the vast majority of the words we use in contemporary English go back as far as Old or Middle English. In contrast, alright and all right in their present-day application appear to be the result of a more recent evolution, as there is no evidence of their use, not even in the two-word form, in the published fiction before the 18th century. Furthermore, there are not in the research literature, at least to my knowledge, any previous linguistic studies on this specific subject matter. The present article is simply an attempt to describe the various processes of diachronic change that brought about the emergence of alright.

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Day-ahead Resource Scheduling Including Demand Response for Electric Vehicles

The energy resource scheduling is becoming increasingly important, as the use of distributed resources is intensified and massive gridable vehicle (V2G) use is envisaged. This paper presents a methodology for day-ahead energy resource scheduling for smart grids considering the intensive use of distributed generation and V2G. The main focus is the comparison of different EV management approaches in the day-ahead energy resources management, namely uncontrolled charging, smart charging, V2G and Demand Response (DR) programs i n the V2G approach. Three different DR programs are designed and tested (trip reduce, shifting reduce and reduce+shifting). Othe r important contribution of the paper is the comparison between deterministic and computational intelligence techniques to reduce the execution time. The proposed scheduling is solved with a modified particle swarm optimization. Mixed integer non-linear programming is also used for comparison purposes. Full ac power flow calculation is included to allow taking into account the network constraints. A case study with a 33-bus distribution network and 2000 V2G resources is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

Stochastic Framework for Strategic Decision-making of Load-serving Entities for Day-ahead Market

The deregulation of electricity markets has diversified the range of financial transaction modes between independent system operator (ISO), generation companies (GENCO) and load-serving entities (LSE) as the main interacting players of a day-ahead market (DAM). LSEs sell electricity to end-users and retail customers. The LSE that owns distributed generation (DG) or energy storage units can supply part of its serving loads when the nodal price of electricity rises. This opportunity stimulates them to have storage or generation facilities at the buses with higher locational marginal prices (LMP). The short-term advantage of this model is reducing the risk of financial losses for LSEs in DAMs and its long-term benefit for the LSEs and the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand. This model also enables the LSEs to manage the financial risks with a stochastic programming framework.

Decision support tool for Virtual Power Players: Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization applied to Day-ahead Vehicle-To-Grid Scheduling

This paper presents a decision support tool methodology to help virtual power players (VPPs) in the Smart Grid (SGs) context to solve the day-ahead energy resource scheduling considering the intensive use of Distributed Generation (DG) and Vehicle-To-Grid (V2G). The main focus is the application of a new hybrid method combing a particle swarm approach and a deterministic technique based on mixedinteger linear programming (MILP) to solve the day-ahead scheduling minimizing total operation costs from the aggregator point of view. A realistic mathematical formulation, considering the electric network constraints and V2G charging and discharging efficiencies is presented. Full AC power flow calculation is included in the hybrid method to allow taking into account the network constraints. A case study with a 33-bus distribution network and 1800 V2G resources is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

The Intensive Care Global Study on Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (IC-GLOSSARI): a Multicenter, Multinational, 14-Day Inception Cohort Study

PURPOSE: In this prospective, multicenter, 14-day inception cohort study, we investigated the epidemiology, patterns of infections, and outcome in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) as a result of severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs). METHODS: All patients admitted to one of 206 participating ICUs during two study weeks, one in November 2013 and the other in January 2014, were screened. SARI was defined as possible, probable, or microbiologically confirmed respiratory tract infection with recent onset dyspnea and/or fever. The primary outcome parameter was in-hospital mortality within 60 days of admission to the ICU. RESULTS: Among the 5550 patients admitted during the study periods, 663 (11.9 %) had SARI. On admission to the ICU, Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria were found in 29.6 and 26.2 % of SARI patients but rarely atypical bacteria (1.0 %); viruses were present in 7.7 % of patients. Organ failure occurred in 74.7 % of patients in the ICU, mostly respiratory (53.8 %), cardiovascular (44.5 %), and renal (44.6 %). ICU and in-hospital mortality rates in patients with SARI were 20.2 and 27.2 %, respectively. In multivariable analysis, older age, greater severity scores at ICU admission, and hematologic malignancy or liver disease were independently associated with an increased risk of in-hospital death, whereas influenza vaccination prior to ICU admission and adequate antibiotic administration on ICU admission were associated with a lower risk. CONCLUSIONS: Admission to the ICU for SARI is common and associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. We identified several risk factors for in-hospital death that may be useful for risk stratification in these patients.

Smart machines in day-to-day financial management:

Starting from Novabase’s challenge to launch in the UK Millennials a personal financial advisor mobile application, this work project aims to build a planning model to frame a business side of a launch strategy for mobile application in similar market and category. This study culminates on the design of SPOSTAC planning model. The created framework is intended to effectively and efficiently plan a launch strategy, being structured based on seven sequential elements: Situation, Product, Objectives, Strategy, Tactics, Action, and Control.

ReedCob – An eco-efficient building technology for monolithic walls based on earth and reeds

4th Conference COST ACTION FP1303 – Designing with Bio-based Materials – Challenges and opportiunities. INIA – CSIC, Madrid, 24-25 February 2016. Book of abstracts, T.Troya, J.Galván, D.Jones (Eds.), INIA and IETcc – CSIS, pg. 79-80 (ISBN: 978-91-88349-16-3)

Five-day plan for smoking cessation using group behaviour therapy.

The "Five-Day Plan to Stop Smoking" (FDP) is an educational group technique for smoking cessation. We studied a cohort of 123 smokers (55 men, 68 women, mean age 42 years) who participated in 11 successive FDP sessions held in Switzerland between 1995 and 1998 and who were followed up for at least 12 months by telephone or direct interview. Overall, 102 of the 123 subjects (83%) had stopped smoking by the end of the FDP, and self-declared smoking cessation rate was 25% after one year. The following factors potentially associated with outcome were studied: age, sex, smoking habit duration, cigarettes per day, Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND), group size, and medical presence among the group leaders. Smoking habit duration was the only variable which showed a statistically significant association with success: the rate of smoking cessation was higher among patients who had smoked for less than 20 years (34.7% vs. 18.9%, p = 0.049). Stress was the most common cause of relapse. The FDP appears to be an effective smoking cessation therapy. Propositions are made in order to improve the success rate of future sessions.

Transient stimulation of glucose metabolism by insulin in the 1-day chick embryo.

Effects of insulin upon glucose metabolism were investigated in chick embryos explanted in vitro during the first 30 h of incubation. Insulin stimulated the glucose consumption of the chick gastrula (18 h) and neurula (24 h), but had no effect on the late blastula (0 h:laying) and on the stage of six to eight somites (30 h). The increase in glucose consumption concerned both the embryonic area pellucida (AP) and extraembryonic area opaca (AO). AP responded to a greater extent (50%) and at a lower range of concentrations (0.1-1.0 ng/ml) than AO (30%; 1-100 ng/ml). Insulin had no effect on the oxygen consumption of blastoderms, whereas it stimulated the aerobic lactate production (approximately 70% of the additional glucose consumption was converted to lactate). The nanomolar range of stimulating concentrations suggests that insulin has a specific effect in the chick embryo, and that it could modulate glucose metabolism in ovo as well. The transient sensitivity of the embryo to insulin is discussed in relation to behavior of mesodermal cells.

In vivo characterization of the circadian clock output gene usp2

Life on earth is subject to the repeated change between day and night periods. All organisms that undergo these alterations have to anticipate consequently the adaptation of their physiology and possess an endogenous periodicity of about 24 hours called circadian rhythm from the Latin circa (about) and diem (day). At the molecular level, virtually all cells of an organism possess a molecular clock which drives rhythmic gene expression and output functions. Besides altered rhythmicity in constant conditions, impaired clock function causes pathophysiological conditions such as diabetes or hypertension. These data unveil a part of the mechanisms underlying the well-described epidemiology of shift work and highlight the function of clock-driven regulatory mechanisms. The post-translational modification of proteins by the ubiquitin polypeptide is a central mechanism to regulate their stability and activity and is capital for clock function. Similarly to the majority of biological processes, it is reversible. Deubiquitylation is carried out by a wide variety of about ninety deubiquitylating enzymes and their function remains poorly understood, especially in vivo. This class of proteolytic enzymes is parted into five families including the Ubiquitin-Specific Proteases (USP), which is the most important with about sixty members. Among them, the Ubiquitin-Specific Protease 2 (Usp2) gene encodes two protein isoforms, USP2-45 and USP2-69. The first is ubiquitously expressed under the control of the circadian clock and displays all features of core clock genes or its closest outputs effectors. Additionally, Usp2-45 was also found to be induced by the mineralocorticoid hormone aldosterone and thought to participate in Na+ reabsorption and blood pressure regulation by Epithelial Na+ Channel ENaC in the kidneys. During my thesis, I aimed to characterize the role of Usp2 in vivo with respect to these two areas, by taking advantage of a total constitutive knockout mouse model. In the first project I aimed to validate the role of USP2-45 in Na+ homeostasis and blood pressure regulation by the kidneys. I found no significant alterations of diurnal Na+ homeostasis and blood pressure in these mice, indicating that Usp2 does not play a substantial role in this process. In urine analyses, we found that our Usp2-KO mice are actually hypercalciuric. In a second project, I aimed to understand the causes of this phenotype. I found that the observed hypercalciuria results essentially from intestinal hyperabsorption. These data reveal a new role for Usp2 as an output effector of the circadian clock in dietary Ca2+ metabolism in the intestine.

30/5/20, Memorial Day au cimetière américain de Suresnes : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 59472