998 resultados para Análise de sobrevivência. Modelos de longa duração. Método deLaplace. MCMC
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The objective of the thermal recovery is to heat the resevoir and the oil in it to increase its recovery. In the Potiguar river basin there are located several heavy oil reservoirs whose primary recovery energy provides us with a little oil flow, which makes these reservoirs great candidates for application of a method of recovery advanced of the oil, especially the thermal. The steam injection can occur on a cyclical or continuous manner. The continuous steam injection occurs through injection wells, which in its vicinity form a zone of steam that expands itself, having as a consequence the displace of the oil with viscosity and mobility improved towards the producing wells. Another possible mechanism of displacement of oil in reservoirs subjected to continuous injection of steam is the distillation of oil by steam, which at high temperatures; their lighter fractions can be vaporized by changing the composition of the oil produced, of the oil residual or to shatter in the amount of oil produced. In this context, this paper aims to study the influence of compositional models in the continuous injection of steam through in the analysis of some parameters such as flow injection steam and temperature of injection. Were made various leading comparative analysis taking the various models of fluid, varying from a good elementary, with 03 pseudocomponents to a modeling of fluids with increasing numbers of pseudocomponents. A commercial numerical simulator was used for the study from a homogeneous reservoir model with similar features to those found in northeastern Brazil. Some conclusions as the increasing of the simulation time with increasing number of pseudocomponents, the significant influence of flow injection on cumulative production of oil and little influence of the number of pseudocomponents in the flows and cumulative production of oil were found
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The development of oil wells drilling requires additional cares mainly if the drilling is in offshore ultra deep water with low overburden pressure gradients which cause low fracture gradients and, consequently, difficult the well drilling by the reduction of the operational window. To minimize, in the well planning phases, the difficulties faced by the drilling in those sceneries, indirect models are used to estimate fracture gradient that foresees approximate values for leakoff tests. These models generate curves of geopressures that allow detailed analysis of the pressure behavior for the whole well. Most of these models are based on the Terzaghi equation, just differentiating in the determination of the values of rock tension coefficient. This work proposes an alternative method for prediction of fracture pressure gradient based on a geometric correlation that relates the pressure gradients proportionally for a given depth and extrapolates it for the whole well depth, meaning that theses parameters vary in a fixed proportion. The model is based on the application of analytical proportion segments corresponding to the differential pressure related to the rock tension. The study shows that the proposed analytical proportion segments reaches values of fracture gradient with good agreement with those available for leakoff tests in the field area. The obtained results were compared with twelve different indirect models for fracture pressure gradient prediction based on the compacting effect. For this, a software was developed using Matlab language. The comparison was also made varying the water depth from zero (onshore wellbores) to 1500 meters. The leakoff tests are also used to compare the different methods including the one proposed in this work. The presented work gives good results for error analysis compared to other methods and, due to its simplicity, justify its possible application
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This work proposes a model to investigate the use of a cylindrical antenna used in the thermal method of recovering through electromagnetic radiation of high-viscosity oil. The antenna has a simple geometry, adapted dipole type, and it can be modelled by using Maxwell s equation. The wavelet transforms are used as basis functions and applied in conjunction with the method of moments to obtain the current distribution in the antenna. The electric field, power and temperature distribution are carefully calculated for the analysis of the antenna as electromagnetic heating. The energy performance is analyzed based on thermo-fluid dynamic simulations at field scale, and through the adaptation in the Steam Thermal and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator (STARS) by Computer Modelling Group (CMG). The model proposed and the numerical results obtained are stable and presented good agreement with the results reported in the specialized literature
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Although it has been suggested that retinal vasculature is a diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) fractal, no study has been dedicated to standardizing its fractal analysis . The aims of this project was to standardize a method to estimate the fractal dimensions of retinal vasculature and to characterize their normal values; to determine if this estimation is dependent on skeletization and on segmentation and calculation methods; to assess the suitability of the DLA model and to determine the usefulness of log-log graphs in characterizing vasculature fractality . To achieve these aims, the information, mass-radius and box counting dimensions of 20 eyes vasculatures were compared when the vessels were manually or computationally segmented; the fractal dimensions of the vasculatures of 60 eyes of healthy volunteers were compared with those of 40 DLA models and the log-log graphs obtained were compared with those of known fractals and those of non-fractals. The main results were: the fractal dimensions of vascular trees were dependent on segmentation methods and dimension calculation methods, but there was no difference between manual segmentation and scale-space, multithreshold and wavelet computational methods; the means of the information and box dimensions for arteriolar trees were 1.29. against 1.34 and 1.35 for the venular trees; the dimension for the DLA models were higher than that for vessels; the log-log graphs were straight, but with varying local slopes, both for vascular trees and for fractals and non-fractals. This results leads to the following conclusions: the estimation of the fractal dimensions for retinal vasculature is dependent on its skeletization and on the segmentation and calculation methods; log-log graphs are not suitable as a fractality test; the means of the information and box counting dimensions for the normal eyes were 1.47 and 1.43, respectively, and the DLA model with optic disc seeding is not sufficient for retinal vascularization modeling
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A prática regular de exercício físico possibilita redução dos efeitos das disfunções hormonais e envelhecimento biológico natural que promovem desajustes hemodinâmicos, vasculares e músculo-esqueléticos, principalmente na população feminina no período pós-menopausa. Nesta fase da vida, o exercício aquático representa mais do que uma forma de ajuste funcional, é uma forma de manutenção de independência para as atividades da vida diária (AVD s) e melhoria na qualidade de vida. Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar as modificações adquiridas pela prática regular de um programa de exercício aquático concorrente de intensidade moderada no nível de óxido nítrico (ON), no índice de resistividade arterial (IR), no perfil lipídico, na capacidade funcional e na qualidade de vida de idosas. A amostra foi formada por idosas (60 a 80 anos) selecionadas por randomização, por sorteio simples divididas em grupo controle e grupo de intervenção as quais foram submetidas a um programa de exercícios aquáticos proposto inicialmente em projeto piloto, por 12 semanas (n=34) e o ensaio clínico teve duração de 16 semanas (n=40). Foi coletada amostra sanguínea das idosas e avaliado o perfil lipídico pelo método enzimático com kit Labtest e o ON por medida indireta a partir da concentração de nitrito no sobrenadante das células em cultura em leitor de ELISA. A avaliação das artérias carótidas e vertebrais foi feita utilizando o método de ultra-som Doopler. A capacidade funcional foi avaliada por quatro testes que simulam atividades da vida diária que são: caminhar 10 metros (C10m), levantar da posição sentada (LPS), levantar da cadeira e locomover-se pela casa (LCLC) e o de levantar-se da posição decúbito ventral (LPDV). No estudo piloto foi avaliado o índice geral de autonomia funcional (IG) e a qualidade de vida através do questionário WHOQOL-100. Empregou-se a análise de variância (ANOVA) com medidas repetidas nos fatores grupo (GH e GC) e tempo (pré e pós-teste) para as comparações intra e intergrupos nas variáveis seguida do post hoc de Scheffé. Utilizou-se o teste de correlação de Pearson e adotado o valor de p<0,05 para a significância estatística. Houve aumento do ON circulante, redução nos índices de resistividade arterial, melhoria significativa nos níveis de colesterol e triglicérides e ganho na capacidade funcional das idosas após a intervenção. Existiu correlação inversa entre a resistividade da artéria vertebral direita (VERTD) e níveis de ON e entre a VERTD e os níveis plasmáticos de HDL, assim como entre estes e o teste C10m nas idosas em estudo. Não houve modificações significativas na qualidade de vida das idosas. Em conclusão, o programa de exercício proposto foi capaz de oferecer melhorias funcionais, aumentar o nível de óxido nítrico circulante, diminuindo a resistência arterial promovendo modificações no perfil lipídico de idosas
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Derivatives of propionic acid NSAIDs are irreversible inhibitors of cyclooxygenase enzyme widely used. The aim of this study was to evaluate, through different experimental models, biological effects of derivatives of propionic acid (fenoprofen, naproxen, ibuprofen and ketoprofen) in cellular and molecular level. The labeling of blood constituents with technetium-99m (99mTc) and morphological analysis of erythrocytes of blood of rats, as well as growth, survival of cultures of Escherichia coli (E. coli) and the assessment of bacterial plasmid electrophoretic profiles were models used for experimental evaluation of possible biological effects of antiinflammatory drugs. The results show that, in general, anti-inflammatory drugs evaluated were not able to alter the labeling of blood constituents with 99mTc, the morphology of red blood cells from blood of rats, as well as the growth of cultures of E. coli and the electrophoretic profile of plasmid DNA. However, naproxen appears to cytotoxic effect on bacterial cultures, plasmids and genotoxic effects in reducing the action of stannous chloride in cultures of E. coli. The use of experimental fast performance and low cost was important for assessment of biological effects, contributing to a better understanding of the properties of propionic acid derivatives studied. anti-inflammatory, blood constituents, technetium-99m, stannous chloride, Escherichia coli; DNA
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The current study presents an analysis about the automation of the lawsuits in Brazil, which opens a new direction to be followed by the National Secretary of Justice, applied indistinctively to the civil, criminal and labor lawsuits, as well as to the special court houses at any degree of juridisdiction. It treats, specifically, about the transition from the classic lawsuit with bureaucratic aspects to the electronic one, based on the simplicity of the functions, the quality of the oral and the readiness. The light of the constitutional principle of the reasonable duration of the lawsuit, while fundamental rigth of the defendant and, under de protection of the democratic guarantee, it investigates, from the theory of the fundamental rights to the reform movement of the lawsiut, in the scenery of the alien law and national law, the latter, mostly because it has the automation as a necessary improvement claimed by modernity, yet without forgetting of the humane character inherent to the criminal lawsuit. It faces the issue of of the disruption of the paradigm of the written formality of the Brazilian lawsuit, the problem of the resistance to the new automized method, the use of the video conference for the inquest of the witnesses as well as for the questioning of the defendant, the advancements of the virtual lawsuit on the Superior Courts, Federal Supreme Court and Superior Court of Justice, it treats also about the role of the National Council of Justice - CNJ - to uniformize the legal proceedings in the country. Without neglecting the effective respect to the fundamental rights, it focuses the cultural change necessary so that the electronic technology can be, in fact, in the indictment system, the means to reach with excellency the citizenship by the simplification of the legal proceedings, transposing the baseless bureaucracy and assuring an effective judicial service assistance in order to have a better quality of life
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For a long time, we believed in the pattern that tropical and south hemisphere species have high survival. Nowadays results began to contradict this pattern, indicating the need for further studies. Despite the advanced state of the study of bird population parameters, little is known about their variation throughout the year and the factors affecting them. Reproduction, for example, is one factor that may alter adult survival rates, because during this process the breeding pair allocates resources to maintain itself to maintain offspring, making itself more susceptible to diseases and predation. The aim of this study was to estimate survival and population size of a Central and South America passerine, Tachyphonus rufus (Boddaert, 1783), testing hypotheses about the factors that define these parameters. We performed data collection between Nov/2010 and ago/2012 in 12 ha plot, in a fragment of Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil. We used capture-mark-recapture methods to generate estimates using Closed Design Robust model in the program MARK. We generated Multi-state models to test some assumptions inherent to Closed Robust Design. The influence of co-variables (time, rain and reproductive cycle) and the effect of transient individuals were measured. Capture, recapture and apparent survival parameters were defined by reproductive cycle, while temporary dispersal was influence by rain. The estimates showed a higher apparent survival during the non-breeding period (92% ± 1%) than during breeding (40% ± 9%), revealing a cost of reproduction and suggesting a trade-off between surviving and reproducing. The low annual survival observed (34%) did not corroborate the pattern of high rates expected for a tropical bird. The largest population size was estimated to be 56 individuals in Nov/11, explained by high recruitment of juveniles, while the lowest observed in May/12: 10 individuals, probably as a result of massive influx of competitor species. Results from this study add to the growing literature on life history of Neotropical species. We encourage studies like this especially in Brazil, where there are few information, and suggest that covariates related to habitat quality and environmental changes should be tested, so that we can generate increasingly reliable models
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This study aims to the evaluate the determinants for rural households northeastern be pluriactive, in 2011. For this, at first, we conducted a review of national and international literature in order to get beyond the theoretical part which refers to the study of pluriactivity identify possible determinants of the phenomenon. In this rescue, it was the observed determinants could be macroeconomic in nature and / or microeconomics. Therefore, it became necessary to describe the characteristics of the region under study, the Northeast. In order to identify the determinants were two estimated Probit models, one based on the literature review and the second with a variable characteristic of the Northeast, the transfers. For this, we used the PNAD in 2011. The results indicate both the microeconomic determinants are : gender, race, age, years of education, hours worked, number of family members, per capita income, transfer the macroeconomic in nature: living conditions (water, energy, sanitation ), housing location. In addition to identifying the determinants, the Econometric model allows to know the probability of each variable on the dependent variable, which stood out: the transfer variable, gender, per capita income, number of family members, housing conditions and housing location. Therefore, it is concluded that it is the set of determinants (macro and micro) allow rural families become northeastern pluriactive. However, one can not fail to consider may also have other determinants were not captured due to the availability of data, which may be indications for future studies. In summary, the pluriactivity in the Brazilian Northeast is a phenomenon distinct from found in Europe and southern Brazil. It is a pluriactivity survival that is part of the strategies of rural households in the Northeast to ensure their social reproduction amid the poverty of the region
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This work aimed to study the reproduction and description of technique for digital sampling images during rats gait and determination of the sciatic functional index (SFI), through a glass walkway to obtain shoots with a digital camera. After controlled injury by strangulation of sciatic nerve, with 3mm of length, during 30 seconds, using hemostatic forceps, a group of 32 rats was performed 24 hours before the lesion which served as control and 24 hours, 7, 14 and 21 days after injury. The tests consisted in the filming and shooting each animal in order to observe the view from below (by a mirror to 45 degrees) and subsequently analyzed using the IMAGE-J program. Measures were taken from the lengths of the legs (right and left), and the distance between the ankle. In the analysis of IFC, values close to zero (0) suggest that the function of the sciatic nerve is still preserved and values coming from "less one hundred" (-100) indicate total loss of function. It was verified in this study that 24 hours before surgery the average SFI was -7.07 +/- 7.88 and 24 hours after injury these values rose to an average of -77.95 +/- 13.81, being about 10 times larger, where 78% of the animals showed 60 to 100% of functional loss in motor activity, demonstrated by the gradual recovery over the days analyzed, confirming the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed methodology. These results suggest that studies can be conducted to simplify and reduce costs using the technique for digital images of footprints during rats gait in the laboratory.
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This research had as its guiding question: what theoretical and structural milestone of graduation nursing curriculum of public universities in the State of Rio Grande do Norte? The objectives of this study were: Analyze theoretical and structural milestones of graduation nursing curriculum of public universities in the State of Rio Grande do Norte; Identify the theoretical milestone and training models that guide the structural milestones of nursing curriculum courses of public universities studied; Analyze the training concepts of curriculums from the voices of the coordinators of the courses. This is a qualitative study, analytical, with discussions of the documentary and empirical research. Ten teachers participated who act as coordinators of the graduation courses in nursing or academic advisors, in UFRNCentral Campus in Natal and Health Sciences College (Facisa), in Santa Cruz-and on UERN -Campus Caicó, Mossoró and Pau dos Ferros. The information collected by interview was analyzed by sociology or symbolic cartography of Boaventura de Sousa Santos. The research was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the UERN by the CAAE: 03610912.7.0000.5294. All the participants signed the Free Consent and clarified Term The results and discussion were presented in four scientific articles. The first article, titled the Pedagogical projects in nursing analysis in the light of the symbolic cartography, features the use of cartographic method in the researches and in the study of nursing curriculums. In the article The Analysis of theoretical-philosophical, structural and referential milestones in nursing curriculums, these milestones are renowned in curriculums of UERN and UFRN. The main challenges faced in the implementation of supervised internship in nursing provide a reflection on the difficulties that the internship supervisors present, especially with the relationship between education/service and the articulation theory/practice. In the last article are discussed the changes in nursing training from the former student profile, who won a boost from the curricular changes proposed by the national curriculum guidelines. The study concluded, by the analysis of theoretical and structural milestones of nursing curriculum courses of public universities of Rio Grande do Norte, that there is an explicit intention to train nurses for the health system and a search on innovative teaching projects in accordance with the national curriculum guidelines for the area of nursing. The thesis defended in this investigation was that the curriculum of public institutions of higher education in nursing in the State of Rio Grande do Norte advanced from a training focusing on biologicist model, flexneriana guidelines, for teaching able to articulate the health with the social, political and cultural issues
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The present work deals with the linear analysis of bi-dimensional axisymmetric structures, through development and implementation of a Finite Element Method code. The structures are initially studied alone and afterwards compatibilized into coupled structures, that is, assemblages, including tanks and pressure vessels. Examples are analysed and, in order to prove accuracy, the results were compared with those furnished by the analytical solutions
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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This work presents the positional nonlinear geometric formulation for trusses using different strain measures. The positional formulation presents an alternative approach for nonlinear problems. This formulation considers nodal positions as variables of the nonlinear system instead of displacements (widely found in literature). The work also describes the arc-length method used for tracing equilibrium paths with snap-through and snap-back. Numerical applications for trusses already established in the literature and comparisons with other studies are provided to prove the accuracy of the proposed formulation
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Nowadays, telecommunications is one of the most dynamic and strategic areas in the world. Organizations are always seeking to find new management practices within an ever increasing competitive environment where resources are getting scarce. In this scenario, data obtained from business and corporate processes have even greater importance, although this data is not yet adequately explored. Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) appears then, as an option to allow the study of complex problems in different areas of management. This work proposes both a systematization of KDD activities using concepts from different methodologies, such as CRISP-DM, SEMMA and FAYYAD approaches and a study concerning the viability of multivariate regression analysis models to explain corporative telecommunications sales using performance indicators. Thus, statistical methods were outlined to analyze the effects of such indicators on the behavior of business productivity. According to business and standard statistical analysis, equations were defined and fit to their respective determination coefficients. Tests of hypotheses were also conducted on parameters with the purpose of validating the regression models. The results show that there is a relationship between these development indicators and the amount of sales