Hidden Markov Models With Set-Valued Parameters

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used probabilistic models of sequential data. As with other probabilistic models, they require the specification of local conditional probability distributions, whose assessment can be too difficult and error-prone, especially when data are scarce or costly to acquire. The imprecise HMM (iHMM) generalizes HMMs by allowing the quantification to be done by sets of, instead of single, probability distributions. iHMMs have the ability to suspend judgment when there is not enough statistical evidence, and can serve as a sensitivity analysis tool for standard non-stationary HMMs. In this paper, we consider iHMMs under the strong independence interpretation, for which we develop efficient inference algorithms to address standard HMM usage such as the computation of likelihoods and most probable explanations, as well as performing filtering and predictive inference. Experiments with real data show that iHMMs produce more reliable inferences without compromising the computational efficiency.

Protocol-driven adjustment of ocular hypotensive medication in patients at low risk of conversion to glaucoma

AIM: To investigate the safety and potential savings of decreasing medication use in low-risk patients with ocular hypertension (OH).
METHODS: Patients with OH receiving pressure-lowering medication identified by medical record review at a university hospital underwent examination by a glaucoma specialist with assessment of visual field (VF), vertical cup-to-disc ratio (vCDR), central corneal thickness and intraocular pressure (IOP). Subjects with estimated 5-year risk of glaucoma conversion <15% were asked to discontinue ≥1 medication, IOP was remeasured 1 month later and risk was re-evaluated at 1 year.
RESULTS: Among 212 eyes of 126 patients, 44 (20.8%) had 5-year risk >15% and 14 (6.6%) had unreliable baseline VF. At 1 month, 15 patients (29 eyes, 13.7%) defaulted follow-up or refused to discontinue medication and 11 eyes (5.2%) had risk >15%. The remaining 69 patients (107 eyes, 50.7%) successfully discontinued 141 medications and completed 1-year follow-up. Mean IOP (20.5±2.65 mm Hg vs 20.3±3.40, p=0.397) did not change, though mean VF pattern SD (1.58±0.41 dB vs 1.75±0.56 dB, p=0.001) and glaucoma conversion risk (7.31±3.74% vs 8.76±6.28%, p=0.001) increased at 1 year. Mean defect decreased (-1.42±1.60 vs -1.07±1.52, p=0.022). One eye (0.47%) developed a repeatable VF defect and 13 eyes (6.1%) had 5-year risk >15% at 1 year. The total 1-year cost of medications saved was US$4596.
CONCLUSIONS: Nearly half (43.9%) of low-risk OH eyes in this setting could safely reduce medications over 1 year, realising substantial savings.Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Potential public health impact of Age-Related Eye Disease Study results: AREDS report no. 11.

OBJECTIVE:

To estimate the potential public health impact of the findings of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) on reducing the number of persons developing advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) during the next 5 years in the United States.

METHODS:

The AREDS clinical trial provides estimates of AMD progression rates and of reduction in risk of developing advanced AMD when a high-dose nutritional supplement of antioxidants and zinc is used. These results are applied to estimates of the US population at risk, to estimate the number of people who would potentially avoid advanced AMD during 5 years if those at risk were to take a supplement such as that used in AREDS.

RESULTS:

An estimated 8 million persons at least 55 years old in the United States have monocular or binocular intermediate AMD or monocular advanced AMD. They are considered to be at high risk for advanced AMD and are those for whom the AREDS formulation should be considered. Of these people, 1.3 million would develop advanced AMD if no treatment were given to reduce their risk. If all of these people at risk received supplements such as those used in AREDS, more than 300,000 (95% confidence interval, 158,000-487,000) of them would avoid advanced AMD and any associated vision loss during the next 5 years.

CONCLUSION:

If people at high risk for advanced AMD received supplements such as those suggested by AREDS results, the potential impact on public health in the United States would be considerable during the next 5 years.

Supra-treatment threshold neonatal jaundice: Incidence in HIV-exposed compared to non-exposed neonates at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital in Blantyre, Malawi

INTRODUCTION: Jaundice is the yellowish pigmentation of the skin, sclera, and mucous membranes resulting from bilirubin deposition. Children born to mothers with HIV are more likely to be born premature, with low birth weight, and to become septic-all risk factors for neonatal jaundice. Further, there has been a change in the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV guidelines from single-dose nevirapine to a six-week course, all of which theoretically put HIV-exposed newborns at greater risk of developing neonatal jaundice.

AIM: We carried out a study to determine the incidence of severe and clinical neonatal jaundice in HIV-exposed neonates admitted to the Chatinkha Nursery (CN) neonatal unit at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH) in Blantyre.

METHODS: Over a period of four weeks, the incidence among non-exposed neonates was also determined for comparison between the two groups of infants. Clinical jaundice was defined as transcutaneous bilirubin levels greater than 5 mg/dL and severe jaundice as bilirubin levels above the age-specific treatment threshold according the QECH guidelines. Case notes of babies admitted were retrieved and information on birth date, gestational age, birth weight, HIV status of mother, type of feeding, mode of delivery, VDRL status of mother, serum bilirubin, duration of stay in CN, and outcome were extracted.

RESULTS: Of the 149 neonates who were recruited, 17 (11.4%) were HIV-exposed. One (5.88%) of the 17 HIV-exposed and 19 (14.4%) of 132 HIV-non-exposed infants developed severe jaundice requiring therapeutic intervention (p = 0.378). Eight (47%) of the HIV-exposed and 107 (81%) of the non-exposed neonates had clinical jaundice of bilirubin levels greater than 5 mg/dL (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: The study showed a significant difference in the incidence of clinical jaundice between the HIV-exposed and HIV-non-exposed neonates. Contrary to our hypothesis, however, the incidence was greater in HIV-non-exposed than in HIV-exposed infants.

Using the fluorescent properties of STO-609 as a tool to assist structure-function analyses of recombinant CaMKK2

Calcium/calmodulin-dependent kinase kinase 2 (CaMKK2) has been implicated in the regulation of metabolic activity in cancer and immune cells, and affects whole-body metabolism by regulating ghrelin-signalling in the hypothalamus. This has led to efforts to develop specific CaMKK2 inhibitors, and STO-609 is the standardly used CaMKK2 inhibitor to date. We have developed a novel fluorescence-based assay by exploiting the intrinsic fluorescence properties of STO-609. Here, we report an in vitro binding constant of KD ∼17 nM between STO-609 and purified CaMKK2 or CaMKK2:Calmodulin complex. Whereas high concentrations of ATP were able to displace STO-609 from the kinase, GTP was unable to achieve this confirming the specificity of this association. Recent structural studies on the kinase domain of CaMKK2 had implicated a number of amino acids involved in the binding of STO-609. Our fluorescent assay enabled us to confirm that Phe(267) is critically important for this association since mutation of this residue to a glycine abolished the binding of STO-609. An ATP replacement assay, as well as the mutation of the 'gatekeeper' amino acid Phe(267)Gly, confirmed the specificity of the assay and once more confirmed the strong binding of STO-609 to the kinase. In further characterising the purified kinase and kinase-calmodulin complex we identified a number of phosphorylation sites some of which corroborated previously reported CaMKK2 phosphorylation and some of which, particularly in the activation segment, were novel phosphorylation events. In conclusion, the intrinsic fluorescent properties of STO-609 provide a great opportunity to utilise this drug to label the ATP-binding pocket and probe the impact of mutations and other regulatory modifications and interactions on the pocket. It is however clear that the number of phosphorylation sites on CaMKK2 will pose a challenge in studying the impact of phosphorylation on the pocket unless the field can develop approaches to control the spectrum of modifications that occur during recombinant protein expression in E. coli.

Geologia 11.º ano - guia do professor

Na primeira parte, são fundamentalmente as orientações metodologicas, as quais incluem referências à educação para o desenvolvimento sustentável, algumas sugestões didáticas e observações relativas à avalliação das aprendizagens. Pretende-se que os professores desenvolvam um quadro de referência, o qual será importante para justificar algumas das decisões que terão de tomar na preparação das suas aulas e, depois, em situação de ato de ensino. Na segunda parte, são apresentados para cada uma das quatro Unidades Temáticas que integram o programa de Geologia do 11.º ano, mapas de conceitos, propostas de planificação, sugestões diversas, recursos e recomendações de avaliação. Tudo isto visa proporcionar aos professores elementos que lhes permitam vir a reunir um conjunto de condições necessárias a uma abordagem sustentada e atual do programa, em íntima articulação com o manual, de modo que os alunos procedam a uma aprendizagem que conduza a uma cidadania ativa.

Mundo Shuar 11: La cocina

La doctora Irene Paredes de Martínez, profesora en la Universidad Central de Quito y especialista en folklore de la alimentación, me hacía notar un día que el "hambre" nos la quitamos de cualquier manera y con cualquier material apenas comestible, pero cuando se trata del apetito entran en juego reglas culturales a veces muy sofisticadas.

Cooperative communications in multi-rate IEEE 802.11 networks

Esta tese apresenta um estudo sobre alguns dos protocolos de cooperação MAC para redes sem fios utilizando o sistema IEEE 802.11 multi-débito. É proposto um novo modelo de arquitetura para a categorização e análise da cooperação em redes sem fios, tendo este modelo sido aplicado a protocolos cooperativos existentes para camada MAC. É investigado como as características do meio físico, assim como os requisitos de níveis superiores podem ser aplicados ao processo de cooperação, com vista a melhorar as características de funcionamento da rede de comunicações. Para este propósito são exploradas as métricas mais relevantes para o processo de cooperação. São igualmente estudados os limites impostos pelos protocolos da camada MAC e as limitações práticas impostas por protocolos da família de normas que compõem o IEEE 802.11. Neste trabalho foi criada uma métrica multicamada, que permite considerar os requisitos aplicacionais de performance e o tipo de tráfego, assim como a mobilidade dos dispositivos, no funcionamento dos mecanismos de cooperação. Como forma de validação, e para corretamente avaliar o impacto da métrica, um novo protocolo de cooperação foi desenvolvido e implementado. O seu funcionamento é descrito de forma analítica assim como validado através de a um ambiente de simulação. Os resultados obtidos mostram que a utilização de uma métrica multicamada é uma técnica robusta, fornecendo melhorias consistentes no contexto de redes IEEE 802.11. São igualmente demonstradas várias outras características de funcionamento com impacto para as comunicações. Estes dados fornecem uma visão real e encorajadora para a realização de mais pesquisas para a melhoria da performance dos protocolos cooperativos, assim como a sua utilização num variado número de aplicações futuras. No final do documento são apresentados alguns desafios para a continuação da investigação deste tópico.

Photodynamic inactivation of bacteria by cationic porphyrins : their cellular targets and potential environmental applications

Photodynamic inactivation (PDI) is defined as the process of cell destruction by oxidative stress resulting from the interaction between light and a photosensitizer (PS), in the presence of molecular oxygen. PDI of bacteria has been extensively studied in recent years, proving to be a promising alternative to conventional antimicrobial agents for the treatment of superficial and localized infections. Moreover, the applicability of PDI goes far beyond the clinical field, as its potential use in water disinfection, using PS immobilized on solid supports, is currently under study. The aim of the first part of this work was to study the oxidative modifications in phospholipids, nucleic acids and proteins of Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus warneri, subjected to photodynamic treatment with cationic porphyrins. The aims of the second part of the work were to study the efficiency of PDI in aquaculture water and the influence of different physicalchemical parameters in this process, using the Gram-negative bioluminescent bacterium Vibrio fischeri, and to evaluate the possibility of recycling cationic PS immobilized on magnetic nanoparticles. To study the oxidative changes in membrane phospholipids, a lipidomic approach has been used, combining chromatographic techniques and mass spectrometry. The FOX2 assay was used to determine the concentration of lipid hydroperoxides generated after treatment. The oxidative modifications in the proteins were analyzed by one-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE). Changes in the intracellular nucleic acids were analyzed by agarose gel electrophoresis and the concentration of doublestranded DNA was determined by fluorimetry. The oxidative changes of bacterial PDI at the molecular level were analyzed by infrared spectroscopy. In laboratory tests, bacteria (108 CFU mL-1) were irradiated with white light (4.0 mW cm-2) after incubation with the PS (Tri-Py+-Me-PF or Tetra-Py+-Me) at concentrations of 0.5 and 5.0 μM for S. warneri and E. coli, respectively. Bacteria were irradiated with different light doses (up to 9.6 J cm-2 for S. warneri and up to 64.8 J cm-2 for E. coli) and the changes were evaluated throughout the irradiation time. In the study of phospholipids, only the porphyrin Tri-Py+-Me-PF and a light dose of 64.8 J cm-2 were tested. The efficiency of PDI in aquaculture has been evaluated in two different conditions: in buffer solution, varying temperature, pH, salinity and oxygen concentration, and in aquaculture water samples, to reproduce the conditions of PDI in situ. The kinetics of the process was determined in realtime during the experiments by measuring the bioluminescence of V. fischeri (107 CFU mL-1, corresponding to a level of bioluminescence of 105 relative light units). A concentration of 5.0 μM of Tri-Py+-Me-PF was used in the experiments with buffer solution, and 10 to 50 μM in the experiments with aquaculture water. Artificial white light (4.0 mW cm-2) and solar irradiation (40 mW cm-2) were used as light sources.

Simulation of economic benefits achieved by water quality improvement for recreational and professional users, within the SPICOSSA SSA (SPICOSSA System Approach) 11 - Guadiana estuary ecosystem sic

Dissertação de Mestrado, Gestão da Água e da Costa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2010