The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Bringing actors and violent conflict into forced migration literature. A model of the decision to return

Populations displaced as a result of mass violent conflict have become one of the most pressing humanitarian concerns of the last decades. They have also become one salient political issue as a perceived burden (in economic and security terms) and as an important piece in the shift towards a more interventionist paradigm in the international system, based on both humanitarian and security grounds. The saliency of these aspects has detracted attention from the analysis of the interactions between relocation processes and violent conflict. Violent conflict studies have also largely ignored those interactions as a result of the consideration of these processes as mere reaction movements determined by structural conditions. This article takes the view that individual’s agency is retained during such processes, and that it is consequential, calling for the need to introduce a micro perspective. Based on this, a model for the individual’s decision of return is presented. The model has the potential to account for the dynamics of return at both the individual and the aggregate level. And it further helps to grasp fundamental interconnections with violent conflict. Some relevant conclusions are derived for the case of Bosnia-Herzegovina and about the implications of the politicization of return.

Understanding the low-temperature limitations to forest growth through calibration of a forest dynamics model with tree-ring data

The sensitivity of altitudinal and latitudinal tree-line ecotones to climate change, particularly that of temperature, has received much attention. To improve our understanding of the factors affecting tree-line position, we used the spatially explicit dynamic forest model TreeMig. Although well-suited because of its landscape dynamics functions, TreeMig features a parabolic temperature growth response curve, which has recently been questioned. and the species parameters are not specifically calibrated for cold temperatures. Our main goals were to improve the theoretical basis of the temperature growth response curve in the model and develop a method for deriving that curve's parameters from tree-ring data. We replaced the parabola with an asymptotic curve, calibrated for the main species at the subalpine (Swiss Alps: Pinus cembra, Larix decidua, Picea abies) and boreal (Fennoscandia: Pinus sylvestris, Betula pubescens, P. abies) tree-lines. After fitting new parameters, the growth curve matched observed tree-ring widths better. For the subalpine species, the minimum degree-day sum allowing, growth (kDDMin) was lowered by around 100 degree-days; in the case of Larix, the maximum potential ring-width was increased to 5.19 mm. At the boreal tree-line, the kDDMin for P. sylvestris was lowered by 210 degree-days and its maximum ring-width increased to 2.943 mm; for Betula (new in the model) kDDMin was set to 325 degree-days and the maximum ring-width to 2.51 mm; the values from the only boreal sample site for Picea were similar to the subalpine ones, so the same parameters were used. However, adjusting the growth response alone did not improve the model's output concerning species' distributions and their relative importance at tree-line. Minimum winter temperature (MinWiT, mean of the coldest winter month), which controls seedling establishment in TreeMig, proved more important for determining distribution. Picea, P. sylvestris and Betula did not previously have minimum winter temperature limits, so these values were set to the 95th percentile of each species' coldest MinWiT site (respectively -7, -11, -13). In a case study for the Alps, the original and newly calibrated versions of TreeMig were compared with biomass data from the National Forest Inventor), (NFI). Both models gave similar, reasonably realistic results. In conclusion, this method of deriving temperature responses from tree-rings works well. However, regeneration and its underlying factors seem more important for controlling species' distributions than previously thought. More research on regeneration ecology, especially at the upper limit of forests. is needed to improve predictions of tree-line responses to climate change further.

The interaction between Poultry and Triatoma infestans Klug, 1834 (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) in an experimental model

This paper compares the predation pressure that ducks and chickens exert on triatomines. For the tests, these birds were placed in individual boxes together with a known number of Triatoma infestans and left to interact from 6 p.m. till the next morning, involving a long lasting period of complete darkness limited by two short-term periods of semi-darkness. There was a shelter which could prevent the bugs from being predated. The number of live and dead triatomines was recorded, considering missing bugs as predated by the birds. Ducks exhibited a greater predatory activity than chickens, that could be due to a long term active period at night while chickens sleep motionless from sunset to dawn. Surviving triatomines that had fed on chickens outnumbered those fed on ducks suggesting that these were less accessible to the triatomine biting. If ducks are better than chickens to detect and eat bugs and to interfere with their feeding in the field, an increase in duck number might help to diminish triatomine density. Further research is needed to determine the feasibility of application of these experimental results.

A qualitative response model of thermal comfort

A sound statistical methodology is presented for modelling the correspondence between the characteristics of individuals, their thermal environment, and their thermal sensation. The proposed methodology substantially improves that developed by P.O. Fanger, by formulating a more general and precise model of thermal comfort. It enables us to estimate the model from a sample of data where all the parameters of comfort vary at the same time, which is not possible with that adopted by Fanger. Moreover, the present model is still valid when thermal conditions are far from optimum. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Potassium channel alterations mediate peripheral nerve hyperexcitability in a mouse model of type 2 diabetes mellitus

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a major cause of peripheral neuropathy. More than 220 million people worldwide suffer from type 2 DM, which will, in approximately half of them, lead to the development of diabetic peripheral neuropathy. While of significant medical importance, the pathophysiological changes present in DPN are still poorly understood. To get more insight into DPN associated with type 2 DM, we decided to use the rodent model of this form of diabetes, the db/db mice. During the in-vivo conduction velocity studies on these animals, we observed the presence of multiple spiking followed by a single stimulation. This prompted us to evaluate the excitability properties of db/db peripheral nerves. Ex-vivo electrophysiological evaluation revealed a significant increase in the excitability of db/db sciatic nerves. While the shape and kinetics of the compound action potential of db/db nerves were the same as for control nerves, we observed an increase in the after-hyperpolarization phase (AHP) under diabetic conditions. Using pharmacological inhibitors we demonstrated that both the peripheral nerve hyperexcitability (PNH) and the increased AHP were mostly mediated by the decreased activity of Kv1-channels. Importantly, we corroborated these data at the molecular level. We observed a strong reduction of Kv1.2 channel presence in the juxtaparanodal regions of teased fibers in db/db mice as compared to control mice. Quantification of the amount of both Kv1.2 isoforms in DRG neurons and in the endoneurial compartment of peripheral nerve by Western blotting revealed that less mature Kv1.2 was integrated into the axonal membranes at the juxtaparanodes. Our observation that peripheral nerve hyperexcitability present in db/db mice is at least in part a consequence of changes in potassium channel distribution suggests that the same mechanism also mediates PNH in diabetic patients. ∗Current address: Department of Physiology, UCSF, San Francisco, CA, USA.

Bigh3 is upregulated in regenerating zebrafish fin.

Zebrafish is a good model for studying regeneration because of the rapidity with which it occurs. Better understanding of this process may lead in the future to improvement of the regenerating capacity of humans. Signaling factors are the second largest category of genes, regulated during regeneration after the regulators of wound healing. Major developmental signaling pathways play a role in this multistep process, such as Bmp, Fgf, Notch, retinoic acid, Shh, and Wnt. In the present study, we focus on TGF-β-induced genes, bigh3 and bambia. Bigh3 encodes keratoepithelin, a protein first identified as an extracellular matrix protein reported to play a role in cell adhesion, as well as in cornea formation and osteogenesis. The expression of bigh3 in zebrafish fins has previously been reported. Here we demonstrate that tgf-b1 and tgf-b3 mRNA reacted with delay, first showing no regulation at 3âeuro0/00dpa, followed by upregulation at 4 and 5âeuro0/00dpa. Tgf-b1, tgf-2, and tgf-brII mRNA were back to normal levels at 10âeuro0/00dpa. Only tgf-b3 mRNA was still upregulated at that time. Bigh3 mRNA followed the upregulation of tgf-b1, while bambia mRNA behaved similarly to tgf-b2 mRNA. We show that upregulation of bigh3 and bambia mRNA correlated with the process of fin regeneration and regulation of TGF-b signaling, suggesting a new role for these proteins.

A model structure for coloured operads in symmetric spectra

We describe a model structure for coloured operads with values in the category of symmetric spectra (with the positive model structure), in which fibrations and weak equivalences are defined at the level of the underlying collections. This allows us to treat R-module spectra (where R is a cofibrant ring spectrum) as algebras over a cofibrant spectrum-valued operad with R as its first term. Using this model structure, we give sufficient conditions for homotopical localizations in the category of symmetric spectra to preserve module structures.

Extended truncated Tweedie-Poisson model

It has been argued that by truncating the sample space of the negative binomial and of the inverse Gaussian-Poisson mixture models at zero, one is allowed to extend the parameter space of the model. Here that is proved to be the case for the more general three parameter Tweedie-Poisson mixture model. It is also proved that the distributions in the extended part of the parameter space are not the zero truncation of mixed poisson distributions and that, other than for the negative binomial, they are not mixtures of zero truncated Poisson distributions either. By extending the parameter space one can improve the fit when the frequency of one is larger and the right tail is heavier than is allowed by the unextended model. Considering the extended model also allows one to use the basic maximum likelihood based inference tools when parameter estimates fall in the extended part of the parameter space, and hence when the m.l.e. does not exist under the unextended model. This extended truncated Tweedie-Poisson model is proved to be useful in the analysis of words and species frequency count data.

Why do educated mothers matter? A model of parental help

The paper investigates the role of mothers in affecting childrens' performance at school. It develops a theoretical model in which household is treated as an individual, whose utility depends on the performance at school of the student and on consumption. The model focuses on the possibilities through which mother’s help may affect pupil's performance in terms of time devoted to supervision and spillover effects. Empirical evidence, using Italian PISA 2006, shows that highly educated mothers have a positive impact on students' score only when they are highly qualified in the job market.

Using a NPWE model observer to assess suitable image quality for a digital mammography quality assurance programme.

A method of objectively determining imaging performance for a mammography quality assurance programme for digital systems was developed. The method is based on the assessment of the visibility of a spherical microcalcification of 0.2 mm using a quasi-ideal observer model. It requires the assessment of the spatial resolution (modulation transfer function) and the noise power spectra of the systems. The contrast is measured using a 0.2-mm thick Al sheet and Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) blocks. The minimal image quality was defined as that giving a target contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) of 5.4. Several evaluations of this objective method for evaluating image quality in mammography quality assurance programmes have been considered on computed radiography (CR) and digital radiography (DR) mammography systems. The measurement gives a threshold CNR necessary to reach the minimum standard image quality required with regards to the visibility of a 0.2-mm microcalcification. This method may replace the CDMAM image evaluation and simplify the threshold contrast visibility test used in mammography quality.

Early broncoconstriction in anesthetized sheep: a simplified experimental model of asthma

Résumé Cette étude décrit un modèle expérimental de bronchoconstriction précoce induite par aérosolisation d'un extrait d'Ascaris suum chez des moutons anesthésiés par de l'isoflurane et ventilés mécaniquement. Dix moutons adultes ont été anesthésiés et ventilés mécaniquement puis ont été exposés à un stimulus bronchoconstrictif sous forme d'un aérosol d'extrait d'Ascaris suum durant 25 minutes. Tous les moutons ont été exposés deux fois à huit semaines d'intervalle à ce même stimulus. Les échanges gazeux ainsi que les paramètres respiratoires ont été mesurés régulièrement durant la période d'aérosolisation ainsi que durant les 60 minutes suivantes. A la fin de la période d'aérosolisation, une augmentation significative (p<0.05) des pressions de crête (+114%) et de plateau (+148%), de la résistance expiratoire (+93%) et de la pression partielle artérielle de gaz carbonique PaCO2 (+25%) a été constatée, de même qu'une diminution significative (p<0.05) de la compliance respiratoire (-41 %) et de la pression partielle artérielle d'oxygène PaO2 (-49%). Ces modifications sont restées stables durant toute la période d'observation. Ce modèle expérimental animal de bronchoconstriction offre de nombreux avantages : la stabilité hémodynamique et le confort de l'animal sont améliorés et la réaction de stress est inhibée. Il permet de plus une distribution optimale de l'antigène respiratoire et finalement évite l'utilisation d'un pléthysmographe corporel. Abstract This study describes a simplified experimental model of early bronchoconstriction induced by aerosolization of Ascaris suum extract in isoflurane-anesthetized and mechanically ventilated sheep. Ten adult sheep were anesthetized, mechanically ventilated and then challenged with an aerosol of Ascaris suum extract during 25 minutes. All of them were challenged twice at eight weeks intervals. During the bronchoconstrictive challenges and the following sixty minutes, gas exchange was measured and respiratory mechanics parameters computed from a lung mechanics calculator. At the end of the challenge, a significant increase (p<0.05) was observed in peak (+114%) and plateau (+148%) pressures, expiratory resistance (+93%) and PaCO2 (+25%) along with a significant decrease (p<0.05) in respiratory compliance (-41 %) and PaO2 (-49%). These changes remained stable throughout the 60 minutes study period. This model offers several advantages: hemodynamic stability and animal welfare are improved and the stress response is blunted. It allows an optimal distribution of the antigen and finally avoids the need of a body plethysmograph.

Adaptació del model europeu (EEES) de les assignatures relacionades amb organització i mètodes de treball de la Diplomatura de relacions Laborals

L'adaptació dels estudis a l'Espai Europeu d'Educació Superior (EEES) comporta l'establiment d'un nou paradigma docent centrat en l'estudiant, l'ús d'una nova unitat de valoració de l'activitat acadèmica, el crèdit europeu, i enfortir i repensar l'avaluació de l'aprenentatge. Aquesta adaptació representa una transformació profunda en el paper que juga tant el professor com l'alumne. En aquest context, es fa molt necessari adaptar les metodologies docents, els continguts i les eines d'interacció amb els alumnes. La finalitat d'aquest projecte consisteix en adaptar les assignatures troncals d'Organització i Mètodes de Treball de la Diplomatura de Relacions Laborals a aquest nou entorn. Per a tal fi, a part d'elaborar un pla docent consistent al EEES, també s'han de desenvolupar continguts, eines d'interacció i metodologies d'avaluació que permetin millorar el nivell de formació i el rendiment acadèmic de l'estudiant. Aquest projecte comprèn sis accions específiques per aconseguir-ho: 1) L'elaboració de la guia docent (objectius, capacitats a treballar, continguts, metodologia, avaluació, etc.); 2) L'elaboració del programa d'activitats (on es concreten les activitats d'aprenentatge que l'estudiant ha de dur a terme per assolir els objectius formatius: projectes tutoritzats, estudis de casos , lectures orientades, etc.) 3) Elaboració del material teòric. Aquesta acció té com a objectiu realitzar un llibre bàsic que comprengui la totalitat de la matèria relacionada amb OMT. 4) Elaboració del material pràctic. 5) Creació d'una pàgina web per aquest material. Aquesta web pretén ser un espai de treball comú pels estudiants de Relacions Laborals que cursin assignatures d'OMT a la UAB i la UPF. 6) Realitzar un projecte pilot tutoritzat. Aquesta prova pilot sorgeix arran de converses informals mantingudes amb alumnes de la diplomatura i la coordinadora d'estudis.

Heparan sulfate 6-O-sulfotransferase 1, a gene involved in extracellular sugar modifications, is mutated in patients with idiopathic hypogonadotrophic hypogonadism.

Neuronal development is the result of a multitude of neural migrations, which require extensive cell-cell communication. These processes are modulated by extracellular matrix components, such as heparan sulfate (HS) polysaccharides. HS is molecularly complex as a result of nonrandom modifications of the sugar moieties, including sulfations in specific positions. We report here mutations in HS 6-O-sulfotransferase 1 (HS6ST1) in families with idiopathic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (IHH). IHH manifests as incomplete or absent puberty and infertility as a result of defects in gonadotropin-releasing hormone neuron development or function. IHH-associated HS6ST1 mutations display reduced activity in vitro and in vivo, suggesting that HS6ST1 and the complex modifications of extracellular sugars are critical for normal development in humans. Genetic experiments in Caenorhabditis elegans reveal that HS cell-specifically regulates neural branching in vivo in concert with other IHH-associated genes, including kal-1, the FGF receptor, and FGF. These findings are consistent with a model in which KAL1 can act as a modulatory coligand with FGF to activate the FGF receptor in an HS-dependent manner.

Age-dependent impairment of spine morphology and synaptic plasticity in hippocampal CA1 neurons of a presenilin 1 transgenic mouse model of Alzheimer's disease.

Presenilin 1 (PS1) mutations are responsible for a majority of early onset familial Alzheimer's disease (FAD) cases, in part by increasing the production of Abeta peptides. However, emerging evidence suggests other possible effects of PS1 on synaptic dysfunction where PS1 might contribute to the pathology independent of Abeta. We chose to study the L286V mutation, an aggressive FAD mutation which has never been analyzed at the electrophysiological and morphological levels. In addition, we analyzed for the first time the long term effects of wild-type human PS1 overexpression. We investigated the consequences of the overexpression of either wild-type human PS1 (hPS1) or the L286V mutated PS1 variant (mutPS1) on synaptic functions by analyzing synaptic plasticity and associated spine density changes from 3 to 15 months of age. We found that mutPS1 induces a transient increase observed only in 4- to 5-month-old mutPS1 animals in NMDA receptor (NMDA-R)-mediated responses and LTP compared with hPS1 mice and nontransgenic littermates. The increase in synaptic functions is concomitant with an increase in spine density. With increasing age, however, we found that the overexpression of human wild-type PS1 progressively decreased NMDA-R-mediated synaptic transmission and LTP, without neurodegeneration. These results identify for the first time a transient increase in synaptic function associated with L286V mutated PS1 variant in an age-dependent manner. In addition, they support the view that the PS1 overexpression promotes synaptic dysfunction in an Abeta-independent manner and underline the crucial role of PS1 during both normal and pathological aging.