Spatial and temporal patterns of locally-acquired dengue transmission in northern Queensland, Australia, 1993-2012

BACKGROUND: Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. We explored spatio-temporal characteristics of locally-acquired dengue cases in northern tropical Queensland, Australia during the period 1993-2012. METHODS: Locally-acquired notified cases of dengue were collected for northern tropical Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. RESULTS: 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in northern tropical Queensland during the study period. The areas affected by the dengue cases exhibited spatial and temporal variation over the study period. Notified cases of dengue occurred more frequently in autumn. Mapping of dengue by statistical local areas (census units) reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time and place. Statistically significant differences in dengue incidence rates among males and females (with more cases in females) (χ(2) = 15.17, d.f.  = 1, p<0.01). Differences were observed among age groups, but these were not statistically significant. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence for the four sub-periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.011 to 0.463 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the northern Queensland. CONCLUSIONS: Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in northern tropical Queensland, Australia. Therefore, this study provides an impetus for further investigation of clusters and risk factors in these high-risk areas.

Activity patterns of preschool-aged children at risk for obesity

BACKGROUND Although the prevalence of obesity in young children highlights the importance of early interventions to promote physical activity (PA), there are limited data on activity patterns in this age group. The purpose of this study is to describe activity patterns in preschool-aged children and explore differences by weight status. METHODS Analyses use baseline data from Healthy Homes/Healthy Kids- Preschool, a pilot obesity prevention trial of preschool-aged children overweight or at risk for overweight. A modified parent-reported version of the previous-day PA recall was used to summarize types of activity. Accelerometry was used to summarize daily and hourly activity patterns. RESULTS "Playing with toys" accounted for the largest proportion of a child's previous day, followed by "meals and snacks", and "chores". Accelerometry-measured daily time spent in sedentary behavior, light PA, and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) was 412, 247, and 69 minutes, respectively. Percent of hourly time spent in MVPA ranged from 3% to 13%, peaking in the late morning and evening hours. There were no statistically significant MVPA differences by weight status. CONCLUSIONS This study extends our understanding of activity types, amounts, and patterns in preschool-age children and warrants further exploration of differences in physical activity patterns by weight status.

Do the best scholars attract the highest speaking fees? An exploration of internal and external influence

This study investigates whether academics can capitalize on their external prominence (measured by the number of pages indexed on Google, TED talk invitations or New York Times bestselling book successes) and internal success within academia (measured by publication and citation performance) in the speakers’ market. The results indicate that the larger the number of web pages indexing a particular scholar, the higher the minimum speaking fee. Invitations to speak at a TED event, or making the New York Times Best Seller list is also positively correlated with speaking fees. Scholars with a stronger internal impact or success also achieve higher speaking fees. However, once external impact is controlled, most metrics used to measure internal impact are no longer statistically significant.

Academic honors and performance

Despite the social importance of awards, they have been largely disregarded by academic research in economics. This paper investigates whether receiving prestigious academic awards—the John Bates Clark Medal and the Fellowship of the Econometric Society—is associated with higher subsequent research productivity and status compared to a synthetic control group of non-recipient scholars with similar previous research performance. Our results suggest statistically significant positive publication and citation differences after award receipt.

Work zone items influencing driver speeds at roadworks: worker, driver and expert perspectives

Roadworks are essential to a safe and efficient road network, yet somewhat paradoxically the necessary work is often associated with increased risk to motorists and workers, as well as with traffic flow disruptions. A major source of increased crash risk at roadwork sites (work zones) is poor speed limit compliance. Speeding in work zones is examined in existing literature to the extent that major issues are known and some effective countermeasures are identified. However, as speeding remains a major problem in work zones, influences on driver behaviour arguably need to be better understood to achieve greater compliance and thus realise further gains in road safety. Current research on safety at Queensland roadwork sites has examined the views of workers, measured work zone speed profiles, and conducted an online survey of drivers (N=410). This paper focuses on survey participants’ ratings of 12 specific work zone items (including traffic control measures) in terms of their influence on speed choice. Repeated measures ANOVA revealed statistically significant differences (p<0.001) in the ratings of these items, with the most influential including visible presence of workers, visible police presence, and speed feedback displays. Those rated least influential included ’roadwork speed limits are enforced’ and ‘reduce speed’ signs and increased fines for speeding in work zones. The paper considers the alignment of these findings with those from other sources, including worker interviews and the literature, to provide a consolidated assessment of the influence of work zone items on driver speeds.

Macular retinal layer thickness in childhood

Purpose To examine macular retinal thickness and retinal layer thickness with spectral domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) in a population of children with normal ocular health and minimal refractive errors. Methods High resolution macular OCT scans from 196 children aged from 4 to 12 years (mean age 8 ± 2 years) were analysed to determine total retinal thickness and the thickness of 6 different retinal layers across the central 5 mm of the posterior pole. Automated segmentation with manual correction was used to derive retinal thickness values. Results The mean total retinal thickness in the central 1 mm foveal zone was 255 ± 16 μm, and this increased significantly with age (mean increase of 1.8 microns per year) in childhood (p<0.001). Age-related increases in thickness of some retinal layers were also observed, with changes of highest statistical significance found in the outer retinal layers in the central foveal region (p<0.01). Significant topographical variations in thickness of each of the retinal layers were also observed (p<0.001). Conclusions Small magnitude, statistically significant increases in total retinal thickness and retinal layer thickness occur from early childhood to adolescence. The most prominent changes appear to occur in the outer retinal layers of the central fovea.

Factors influencing bike share membership : an analysis of Melbourne and Brisbane

The number of bike share programs has increased rapidly in recent years and there are currently over 700 programs in operation globally. Australia’s two bike share programs have been in operation since 2010 and have significantly lower usage rates compared to Europe, North America and China. This study sets out to understand and quantify the factors influencing bike share membership in Australia’s two bike share programs located in Melbourne and Brisbane. An online survey was administered to members of both programs as well as a group with no known association with bike share. A logistic regression model revealed several significant predictors of membership including reactions to mandatory helmet legislation, riding activity over the previous month, and the degree to which convenience motivated private bike riding. In addition, respondents aged 18 - 34 and having docking station within 250m of their workplace were found to be statistically significant predictors of bike share membership. Finally, those with relatively high incomes increased the odds of membership. These results provide insight as to the relative influence of various factors impacting on bike share membership in Australia. The findings may assist bike share operators to maximize membership potential and help achieve the primary goal of bike share – to increase the sustainability of the transport system.

Changes in healthcare-associated infections after the introduction of a national hand hygiene initiative

Introduction: Interventions that prevent healthcare-associated infections should lead to fewer deaths and shorter hospital stays. Cleaning hands with soap and water or alcohol rub is an effectiveway to prevent the transmission of organisms, but compliance is sometimes low. The National Hand Hygiene Initiative in Australia aimed to improve hand hygiene compliance among healthcare workers, with the goal of reducing rates of healthcare-associated infections. Methods: We examined if the introduction of the National Hand Hygiene Initiative was associated with a change in infection rates. Monthly infection rates for six types of healthcare-associated infections were examined in 38 Australian hospitals across six states. Infection categories were: bloodstream infections, centralline associated bloodstream infections, methicillin-resistant and methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus, Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia and surgical site infections. Results: The National Hand Hygiene Initiative was associated with a statistically significant reduction in infection rates in 11 out of 23 state and infection combinations studied. There was no change in infection rates for nine combinations, and there was an increase in three infection rates in South Australia. Conclusions: The intervention was associated with reduced infection rates in many cases. The lack of improvement in nine cases may have been because they already had effective initiatives before the national initiative’s introduction.

Navigating pathways for academic staff development : implications for institutions and academic ranks

BACKGROUND As engineering schools adopt outcomes - focused learning approaches in response to government expectations and industry requirements of graduates capable of learning and applying knowledge in different contexts, university academics must be capable of developing and delivering programs that meet these requirements. Those academics are increasingly facing challenges in progressing their research and also acquiring different skill sets to meet the learning and teaching requirements. PURPOSE The goal of this study was to identify the types of development and support structures in place for academic staff, especially early career ones, and examine how the type of institution and the rank or role of the staff member affects these structures. DESIGN/METHOD We conducted semi - structured interviews with 21 individuals in a range of positions pertaining to teaching and learning in engineering education. Open coding was used to identify main themes from the guiding questions raised in the interviews and refined to address themes relevant to the development of institutional staff . The interview data was then analysed based on the type of institution and the rank/ role of the participant. RESULTS While development programs that focus on improving teaching and learning are available, the approach on using these types of programs differed based on staff perspective. Fewer academics, regardless of rank/role, had knowledge of support structures related to other areas of scholarship, e.g. disciplinary research, educational research, learning the institutional culture. The type of institution also impacted how they weighted and encouraged multiple forms of scholarship. We found that academic staff holding higher ranking positions, e.g. dean or associate dean, were not only concerned with the success of their respective programs, but also in how to promote other academic staff participation throughout the process. CONCLUSIONS The findings from this stud y extend the premise that developing effective academic staff ultimately leads to more effective institutions and successful graduates and accomplishing this requires staff buy - in at multiple stages of instructional and program development. Staff and administration developing approaches for educational innovation together (Besterfield - Sacre et al., 2014) and getting buy - in from all academic staff to invest in engineering education development will ultimately lead to more successful engineering graduates.

A methodological exploration to determine transportation disadvantage variables: the partial least square approach

Determining the key variables of transportation disadvantage remains a great challenge as the variables are commonly selected using ad-hoc techniques. In order to identify the variables, this research develops a transportation disadvantage framework by manipulating the capability approach. Developed framework is statistically analysed using partial least square-based software to determine the framework fitness. The statistical analysis identifies mobility and socioeconomic variables that significantly influence transportation disadvantage. The research reveals the key socioeconomic variables for transportation disadvantage in the case of Brisbane, Australia as household structure, presence of dependent family member, vehicle ownership, and driving licence possession.

The effect of repeated loading and freeze-thaw cycling on immature bovine thoracic motion segment stiffness

There is growing interest in the biomechanics of ‘fusionless’ implant constructs used for deformity correction in the thoracic spine, however, there are questions over the comparability of in vitro biomechanical studies from different research groups due to the various methods used for specimen preparation, testing and data collection. The aim of this study was to identify the effect of two key factors on the stiffness of immature bovine thoracic spine motion segments: (i) repeated cyclic loading and (ii) multiple freeze-thaw cycles, to aid in the planning and interpretation of in vitro studies. Two groups of thoracic spine motion segments from 6-8 week old calves were tested in flexion/extension, right/left lateral bending, and right/left axial rotation under moment control. Group (A) were tested with continuous repeated cyclic loading for 500 cycles with data recorded at cycles 3, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 300, 400 and 500. Group (B) were tested after each of five freeze-thaw sequences, with data collected from the 10th load cycle in each sequence. Group A: Flexion/extension stiffness reduced significantly over the 500 load cycles (-22%; P=0.001), but there was no significant change between the 5th and 200th load cycles. Lateral bending stiffness decreased significantly (-18%; P=0.009) over the 500 load cycles, but there was no significant change in axial rotation stiffness (P=0.137). Group B: There was no significant difference between mean stiffness over the five freeze-thaw sequences in flexion/extension (P=0.813) and a near significant reduction in mean stiffness in axial rotation (-6%; P=0.07). However, there was a statistically significant increase in stiffness in lateral bending (+30%; P=0.007). Comparison of in vitro testing results for immature thoracic bovine spine segments between studies can be performed with up to 200 load cycles without significant changes in stiffness. However, when testing protocols require greater than 200 cycles, or when repeated freeze-thaw cycles are involved, it is important to account for the effect of cumulative load and freeze-thaw cycles on spine segment stiffness.

Higher fuel prices are associated with lower air pollution levels

Air pollution is a persistent problem in urban areas, and traffic emissions are a major cause of poor air quality. Policies to curb pollution levels often involve raising the price of using private vehicles, for example, congestion charges. We were interested in whether higher fuel prices were associated with decreased air pollution levels. We examined an association between diesel and petrol prices and four traffic-related pollutants in Brisbane from 2010 to 2013. We used a regression model and examined pollution levels up to 16 days after the price change. Higher diesel prices were associated with statistically significant short-term reductions in carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides. Changes in petrol prices had no impact on air pollution. Raising diesel taxes in Australia could be justified as a public health measure. As raising taxes is politically unpopular, an alternative political approach would be to remove schemes that put a downward pressure on fuel prices, such as industry subsidies and shopping vouchers that give fuel discounts.

Meta-analysis of prevalence

Meta-analysis is a method to obtain a weighted average of results from various studies. In addition to pooling effect sizes, meta-analysis can also be used to estimate disease frequencies, such as incidence and prevalence. In this article we present methods for the meta-analysis of prevalence. We discuss the logit and double arcsine transformations to stabilise the variance. We note the special situation of multiple category prevalence, and propose solutions to the problems that arise. We describe the implementation of these methods in the MetaXL software, and present a simulation study and the example of multiple sclerosis from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 project. We conclude that the double arcsine transformation is preferred over the logit, and that the MetaXL implementation of multiple category prevalence is an improvement in the methodology of the meta-analysis of prevalence.

The global epidemiology and contribution of cannabis use and dependence to the global burden of disease: results from the GBD 2010 study

Aim Estimate the prevalence of cannabis dependence and its contribution to the global burden of disease. Methods Systematic reviews of epidemiological data on cannabis dependence (1990-2008) were conducted in line with PRISMA and meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Culling and data extraction followed protocols, with cross-checking and consistency checks. DisMod-MR, the latest version of generic disease modelling system, redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, imputed prevalence by age, year and sex for 187 countries and 21 regions. The disability weight associated with cannabis dependence was estimated through population surveys and multiplied by prevalence data to calculate the years of life lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). YLDs and DALYs attributed to regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia were also estimated. Results There were an estimated 13.1 million cannabis dependent people globally in 2010 (point prevalence0.19% (95% uncertainty: 0.17-0.21%)). Prevalence peaked between 20-24 yrs, was higher in males (0.23% (0.2-0.27%)) than females (0.14% (0.12-0.16%)) and in high income regions. Cannabis dependence accounted for 2 million DALYs globally (0.08%; 0.05-0.12%) in 2010; a 22% increase in crude DALYs since 1990 largely due to population growth. Countries with statistically higher age-standardised DALY rates included the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Western European countries such as the United Kingdom; those with lower DALY rates were from Sub-Saharan Africa-West and Latin America. Regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia accounted for an estimated 7,000 DALYs globally. Conclusion Cannabis dependence is a disorder primarily experienced by young adults, especially in higher income countries. It has not been shown to increase mortality as opioid and other forms of illicit drug dependence do. Our estimates suggest that cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia is not a major contributor to population-level disease burden.

Error and variance bounds on sigmoidal neurons with weight and input errors

Bounds on the expectation and variance of errors at the output of a multilayer feedforward neural network with perturbed weights and inputs are derived. It is assumed that errors in weights and inputs to the network are statistically independent and small. The bounds obtained are applicable to both digital and analogue network implementations and are shown to be of practical value.