Análise de Dados de Desemprego em Cabo Verde

Este trabalho baseia-se na análise de dados do desemprego em Cabo Verde nos anos de 2006 e 2008, usando informação da base de dados do INE e IEFP. Partindo da análise dos dados em estudo vai-se procurar descrever e perspectivar metodologias que contemplam as variáveis qualitativas e quantitativas com significado social positivo para a sociedade deste país. Após a introdução no capítulo 1, fez-se, no capítulo 2, a análise exploratória dos dados do desemprego em Cabo Verde referente aos anos 2006 e 2008. No capítulo 3 estudam-se associações entre variáveis, usando a metodologia de tabelas contingência, através da realização de testes de independência e testes de homogeneidade, e análise de medidas de associação. As variáveis usadas, vão ser essencialmente, o escalão etário, o género e o ano. O capítulo 4 é dedicado ao estudo de modelos Log - lineares em tabela de contingência, finalizando-se o trabalho com a apresentação das principais conclusões.

Integration of high-resolution geophysical data for the characterization of alluvial aquifers : new approaches and implications for hydrological predictions

Abstract Accurate characterization of the spatial distribution of hydrological properties in heterogeneous aquifers at a range of scales is a key prerequisite for reliable modeling of subsurface contaminant transport, and is essential for designing effective and cost-efficient groundwater management and remediation strategies. To this end, high-resolution geophysical methods have shown significant potential to bridge a critical gap in subsurface resolution and coverage between traditional hydrological measurement techniques such as borehole log/core analyses and tracer or pumping tests. An important and still largely unresolved issue, however, is how to best quantitatively integrate geophysical data into a characterization study in order to estimate the spatial distribution of one or more pertinent hydrological parameters, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first develop a strategy for the assimilation of several types of hydrogeophysical data having varying degrees of resolution, subsurface coverage, and sensitivity to the hydrologic parameter of interest. In this regard a novel simulated annealing (SA)-based conditional simulation approach was developed and then tested in its ability to generate realizations of porosity given crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and neutron porosity log data. This was done successfully for both synthetic and field data sets. A subsequent issue that needed to be addressed involved assessing the potential benefits and implications of the resulting porosity realizations in terms of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. This was investigated synthetically assuming first that the relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity was well-defined. Then, the relationship was itself investigated in the context of a calibration procedure using hypothetical tracer test data. Essentially, the relationship best predicting the observed tracer test measurements was determined given the geophysically derived porosity structure. Both of these investigations showed that the SA-based approach, in general, allows much more reliable hydrological predictions than other more elementary techniques considered. Further, the developed calibration procedure was seen to be very effective, even at the scale of tomographic resolution, for predictions of transport. This also held true at locations within the aquifer where only geophysical data were available. This is significant because the acquisition of hydrological tracer test measurements is clearly more complicated and expensive than the acquisition of geophysical measurements. Although the above methodologies were tested using porosity logs and GPR data, the findings are expected to remain valid for a large number of pertinent combinations of geophysical and borehole log data of comparable resolution and sensitivity to the hydrological target parameter. Moreover, the obtained results allow us to have confidence for future developments in integration methodologies for geophysical and hydrological data to improve the 3-D estimation of hydrological properties.

Diversidade de formigas epigéicas (Hymenoptera, Formicidae) em dois ambientes no Centro-Oeste do Brasil

Diversidade de formigas epigéicas (Hymenoptera, Formicidae) em ambientes no Centro-Oeste do Brasil. Foi comparada, através do uso de índices de diversidade e modelos de abundância de espécies, a diversidade das comunidades de formigas epigéicas que ocorrem em duas estruturas vegetacionais diferentes: mata nativa e cultura de eucalipto. Para a captura das formigas foram utilizadas 800 armadilhas de solo do tipo pitfall, em oito amostras distintas. Um total de 85 espécies, distribuídas em 36 gêneros de sete subfamílias foram coletadas nos dois ambientes, sendo que destas, 83 ocorreram na mata nativa e 60 na cultura de eucalipto. A diversidade de espécies de formigas calculada pelo índice de Simpson não foi significativamente diferente entre os ambientes, ao contrário do resultado obtido a partir da aplicação do índice de Shannon, o qual indicou maior diversidade de espécies na mata nativa. O modelo log-series não se ajustou satisfatoriamente aos dados das comunidades de formigas encontradas na cultura de eucalipto e na mata nativa, mas o modelo log-normal mostrou-se adequado para descrever a estrutura das comunidades dos dois ambientes. O modelo broken-stick, que representa uma comunidade bem estruturada, ajustou-se apenas aos dados da mata nativa.

Measuring subcompositional incoherence

Subcompositional coherence is a fundamental property of Aitchison s approach to compositional data analysis, and is the principal justification for using ratios of components. We maintain, however, that lack of subcompositional coherence, that is incoherence, can be measured in an attempt to evaluate whether any given technique is close enough, for all practical purposes, to being subcompositionally coherent. This opens up the field to alternative methods, which might be better suited to cope with problems such as data zeros and outliers, while being only slightly incoherent. The measure that we propose is based on the distance measure between components. We show that the two-part subcompositions, which appear to be the most sensitive to subcompositional incoherence, can be used to establish a distance matrix which can be directly compared with the pairwise distances in the full composition. The closeness of these two matrices can be quantified using a stress measure that is common in multidimensional scaling, providing a measure of subcompositional incoherence. The approach is illustrated using power-transformed correspondence analysis, which has already been shown to converge to log-ratio analysis as the power transform tends to zero.

Determinación del esfuerzo de muestreo requerido para el estimado de procucción de huevos de anchoveta Engraulis ringens, frente al Perú

Para obtener una primera aproximación del número de muestras requerido para un determinado nivel de precisión del estimado de producción de huevos de anchoveta por unidad de área superficial del mar, se han utilizado datos existentes de muestras de huevos provenientes de exploraciones efectuadas frente al Perú en los últimos 20 años. La anchoveta parece desovar en cardúmenes, produciendo una gran can­ tidad de huevos, de los que las muestras toman una pequeña proporción. Aproximadamente el 8º/o de las muestras positivas fueron superiores a 4096 huevos por m2. Un importante cambio en el tamaño de la población de la anchoveta peruana se ha notado en 1972. El rango de valores de huevos fue similar antes y después del cambio, pero el número promedio de huevos por muestra positiva fue aproximada­ mente el doble antes de la declinación en 1971. Se ha tomado en consideración la precisión de la estimación deseada y los costos y disponibilidad de tiempo de barco en la estación de desove para elaborar un plan de crucero a un costo razonable. El área investigada cubre 57600 millas cuadradas; con 640 millas a lo largo y 90 millas hacia afuera de la costa. En esta proyección una precisión del estimado de 30º/o requiere 924 muestras y 20º/o de precisión requiere 2078 muestras. Se discute los sesgos en la estimación de precisión. Se usa la distribución de probabilidad log-normal en la descripción de muestras positivas.

Improved HIV-1 RNA quantitation by COBAS AmpliPrep/COBAS TaqMan HIV-1 Test, v2.0 using a novel dual-target approach.

BACKGROUND: HIV-1 RNA viral load is a key parameter for reliable treatment monitoring of HIV-1 infection. Accurate HIV-1 RNA quantitation can be impaired by primer and probe sequence polymorphisms as a result of tremendous genetic diversity and ongoing evolution of HIV-1. A novel dual HIV-1 target amplification approach was realized in the quantitative COBAS AmpliPrep/COBAS TaqMan HIV-1 Test, v2.0 (HIV-1 TaqMan test v2.0) to cope with the high genetic diversity of the virus. OBJECTIVES AND STUDY DESIGN: The performance of the new assay was evaluated for sensitivity, dynamic range, precision, subtype inclusivity, diagnostic and analytical specificity, interfering substances, and correlation with the COBAS AmpliPrep/COBAS TaqMan HIV-1 (HIV-1 TaqMan test v1.0) predecessor test in patients specimens. RESULTS: The new assay demonstrated a sensitivity of 20 copies/mL, a linear measuring range of 20-10,000,000 copies/mL, with a lower limit of quantitation of 20 copies/mL. HIV-1 Group M subtypes and HIV-1 Group O were quantified within +/-0.3 log(10) of the assigned titers. Specificity was 100% in 660 tested specimens, no cross reactivity was found for 15 pathogens nor any interference for endogenous substances or 29 drugs. Good comparability with the predecessor assay was demonstrated in 82 positive patient samples. In selected clinical samples 35/66 specimens were found underquantitated in the predecessor assay; all were quantitated correctly in the new assay. CONCLUSIONS: The dual-target approach for the HIV-1 TaqMan test v2.0 enables superior HIV-1 Group M subtype coverage including HIV-1 Group O detection. Correct quantitation of specimens underquantitated in the HIV-1 TaqMan test v1.0 test was demonstrated.

iLOGP: A Simple, Robust, and Efficient Description of n-Octanol/Water Partition Coefficient for Drug Design Using the GB/SA Approach.

The n-octanol/water partition coefficient (log Po/w) is a key physicochemical parameter for drug discovery, design, and development. Here, we present a physics-based approach that shows a strong linear correlation between the computed solvation free energy in implicit solvents and the experimental log Po/w on a cleansed data set of more than 17,500 molecules. After internal validation by five-fold cross-validation and data randomization, the predictive power of the most interesting multiple linear model, based on two GB/SA parameters solely, was tested on two different external sets of molecules. On the Martel druglike test set, the predictive power of the best model (N = 706, r = 0.64, MAE = 1.18, and RMSE = 1.40) is similar to six well-established empirical methods. On the 17-drug test set, our model outperformed all compared empirical methodologies (N = 17, r = 0.94, MAE = 0.38, and RMSE = 0.52). The physical basis of our original GB/SA approach together with its predictive capacity, computational efficiency (1 to 2 s per molecule), and tridimensional molecular graphics capability lay the foundations for a promising predictor, the implicit log P method (iLOGP), to complement the portfolio of drug design tools developed and provided by the SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics.

Almost sure testability of classes of densities

Let a class $\F$ of densities be given. We draw an i.i.d.\ sample from a density $f$ which may or may not be in $\F$. After every $n$, one must make a guess whether $f \in \F$ or not. A class is almost surely testable if there exists such a testing sequence such that for any $f$, we make finitely many errors almost surely. In this paper, several results are given that allowone to decide whether a class is almost surely testable. For example, continuity and square integrability are not testable, but unimodality, log-concavity, and boundedness by a given constant are.

A zero-delay sequential scheme for lossy coding of individual sequences

We consider adaptive sequential lossy coding of bounded individual sequences when the performance is measured by the sequentially accumulated mean squared distortion. Theencoder and the decoder are connected via a noiseless channel of capacity $R$ and both are assumed to have zero delay. No probabilistic assumptions are made on how the sequence to be encoded is generated. For any bounded sequence of length $n$, the distortion redundancy is defined as the normalized cumulative distortion of the sequential scheme minus the normalized cumulative distortion of the best scalarquantizer of rate $R$ which is matched to this particular sequence. We demonstrate the existence of a zero-delay sequential scheme which uses common randomization in the encoder and the decoder such that the normalized maximum distortion redundancy converges to zero at a rate $n^{-1/5}\log n$ as the length of the encoded sequence $n$ increases without bound.

Inequalities for a new data-based method for selecting nonparametric density estimates

We continue the development of a method for the selection of a bandwidth or a number of design parameters in density estimation. We provideexplicit non-asymptotic density-free inequalities that relate the $L_1$ error of the selected estimate with that of the best possible estimate,and study in particular the connection between the richness of the classof density estimates and the performance bound. For example, our methodallows one to pick the bandwidth and kernel order in the kernel estimatesimultaneously and still assure that for {\it all densities}, the $L_1$error of the corresponding kernel estimate is not larger than aboutthree times the error of the estimate with the optimal smoothing factor and kernel plus a constant times $\sqrt{\log n/n}$, where $n$ is the sample size, and the constant only depends on the complexity of the family of kernels used in the estimate. Further applications include multivariate kernel estimates, transformed kernel estimates, and variablekernel estimates.

Resultados preliminares de las mediciones de fuerza de blanco in situ de las principales especies pelágicas. Crucero BIC Humboldt 9803-05 de Tumbes a Tacna

Se han utilizado los resultados de 144 lances ejecutados en el transcurso del Crucero 9803-05. Se compararon los histogramas de TS y los de tallas en búsqueda de correlación entre ambas a fin de determinar el factor b20 de la Ecuación de Fuerza de Blanco (20 log (LT,cm) + b20). Se han determinado nuevas ecuaciones de TS para anchoveta (38 y 120 kHz), sardina (120 kHz), jurel (38 kHz) y caballa (38 y 120 kHz). Se deberá continuar con estas mediciones puesto que un cambio en las propuestas reflectivas de los peces puede afectar la correcta obtención de los estimados de biomasa.

Mediciones in situ de TS de diversas especies a finales del invierno de 1998. Crucero BIC Humboldt 9808-09

Se efectuaron mediciones de TS (Fuerza de Blanco, Target Strenght) durante los 108 lances de comprobación de ecotrazos realizados por el BIC Humboldt en el marco del Crucero 9808-09 de Evaluación Hidroacústica de Recursos Pelágicos. Se consideran para el análisis únicamente aquellos lances donde más del 90% de la captura perteneció a una sola especie. Los factores b20 de la ecuación de TS (TS=20 log L - b20) que han sido determinados, las cuales deberán ser considerados como provisionales, son las siguientes: Pez cinta (Trichiurus lepturus) = 70,95 (120 kHz); Vinciguerria o pez linterna (Vinciguerria lucetia pacifici) = 83,29 (120 kHz); Samasa (Anchoa nasus) = 86,57 (120 kHz); Caballa (Scomber japonicus) = 83,09 (120 kHz); Pez cinta (Trichiurus lepturus) = 71,41 (38 kHz); y Vinciguerria o pez linterna (Vinciguerria lucetia pacifici)= 82,04 (38kHz).

Mediciones in situ de TS para el krill (Euphasia superba) a 120 Khz. Verano austral 1998. Perú antar IX

Se realizaron mediciones de la Fuerza de Blanco (TS) del krill (Euphausia superba) durante los 29 lances efectuados en el Crucero de Evaluación Hidroacústica utilizando la ecosonda SIMRAD EK 500 a bordo del BIC Humboldt entre los días 12 y 24 de enero de 1998 a lo largo del Estrecho de Bransfield y alrededores de la Isla Elefante. Se derivaron los valores de b20 a partir de le ecuación de TS de FOOTE (1990), de las longitudes promedios de los individuos capturados durante cada uno de los lances y de las tablas de TS generadas por la ecosonda, determinándose una ecuación de TS para el krill en un rango de longitud comprendido entre 2,1 y 5,3 cm de la siguiente forma: TS = 20 log L - 89,26. Se discute el posible sesgo de la ecuación debido, entre otros aspectos a que no se consideraron los estadíos sexuales del krill.

Mediciones in situ de TS a finales de la primavera 1998 crucero BIC José Olaya Balandra 9811-12

Se efectuaron mediciones de TS (Fuerza de Blanco: Target Strength) durante los 100 lances de comprobación de ecotrazos realizados por el BIC José Olaya Balandra durante el Crucero 9811-12 de Evaluación Hidroacústica de Recursos Pelágicos. Se consideraron para el análisis únicamente aquellos lances donde más del 90% de la captura perteneció a una determinada especie y que, además, se haya observado en ellos una adecuada correlación entre los histogramas de tallas y de TS. Los factores b20 de la ecuación de TS (TS = 20 log L - b20) que han sido determinados, las cuales serán consideradas como provisionales, corresponden a anchoveta (2) y a bregmaceros (1). Estas son las siguientes: anchoveta, b20 = 81, 8 (para ejemplares entre 6 y 8,5 cm); anchoveta, b20 = 78,5 (para ejemplares entre 11,5 y 14,5 cm); bregmaceros, b20 = 80,25 (para ejemplares entre 5,5 y 8 cm).

Mediciones in situ de ts a finales del verano 1999. Crucero BIC Jose Olaya Balandra 9902-03

Se efectuaron mediciones de TS (Fuerza de Blanco: Target Strength) durante los 136 lances de comprobación de ecotrazos realizados por el BIC José Olaya Balandra durante el Crucero 9902-03 de Evaluación Hidroacústica de Recursos Pelágicos. Se consideraron para el análisis únicamente aquellos lances donde más del 90% de la captura perteneció a una especie y que, además, se haya observado en ellos una adecuada correlación entre los histogramas de tallas y de TS. Los factores b20 de la ecuación de TS (TS=20 log L - b20) que han sido determinados, las cuales serán consideradas como provisionales, corresponden a anchoveta (2) y a pota (1). Estas son las siguientes: anchoveta a 120 kHz, b20=82,2 (para ejemplares entre 5,5 y 9,5 cm); anchoveta 38 kHz, b20=81,2 (para ejemplares entre 5,5 y 10,5 cm); pota a 38 kHz, b20=87,2 (para ejemplares entre 12 y 24 cm de longitud de manto).