Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

Influence of sodium intake on circulating levels of neuropeptide Y.

Neuropeptide Y (NPY) is present in the adrenal medulla, in sympathetic neurons as well as in the circulation. This peptide not only exerts a direct vasoconstrictor effect, but also potentiates the vasoconstriction evoked by norepinephrine and sympathetic nerve stimulation. The vasoconstrictor effect of norepinephrine is also enhanced by salt loading and reduced by salt depletion. The purpose of this study was therefore to assess whether there exists a relationship between dietary sodium intake and the levels of circulating NPY. Uninephrectomized normotensive rats were maintained for 3 weeks either on a low, a regular or a high sodium intake. On the day of the experiment, plasma levels of NPY and catecholamines were measured in the unanesthetized animals. There was no significant difference in plasma norepinephrine and epinephrine levels between the 3 groups of rats. Plasma NPY levels were the lowest (65.4 +/- 8.8 fmol/ml, n-10, Mean +/- SEM) in salt-restricted and the highest (151.2 +/- 25 fmol/ml, n-14, p less than 0.02) in salt-loaded animals. Intermediate values were obtained in rats kept on a regular sodium intake (117.6 +/- 20.1 fmol/ml). These findings are therefore compatible with the hypothesis that sodium balance might to some extent influence blood pressure regulation via changes in circulating NPY levels which in turn modify blood pressure responsiveness.

Influence of age on the haemoglobin concentration of malaria-infected patients in a reference centre in the Brazilian Amazon

Anaemia is amongst the major complications of malaria, a major public health problem in the Amazon Region in Latin America. We examined the haemoglobin (Hb) concentrations of malaria-infected patients and compared it to that of malaria-negative febrile patients and afebrile controls. The haematological parameters of febrile patients who had a thick-blood-smear performed at an infectious diseases reference centre of the Brazilian Amazon between December 2009-January 2012 were retrieved together with clinical data. An afebrile community control group was composed from a survey performed in a malaria-endemic area. Hb concentrations and anaemia prevalence were analysed according to clinical-epidemiological status and demographic characteristics. In total, 7,831 observations were included. Patients with Plasmodium falciparum infection had lower mean Hb concentrations (10.5 g/dL) followed by P. vivax-infected individuals (12.4 g/dL), community controls (12.8 g/dL) and malaria-negative febrile patients (13.1 g/dL) (p < 0.001). Age, gender and clinical-epidemiological status were strong independent predictors for both outcomes. Amongst malaria-infected individuals, women in the reproductive age had considerably lower Hb concentrations. In this moderate transmission intensity setting, both vivax and falciparum malaria are associated with reduced Hb concentrations and risk of anaemia throughout a wide age range.

Rivaroxaban: Quantification by anti-FXa assay and influence on coagulation tests: a study in 9 Swiss laboratories.

INTRODUCTION: Rivaroxaban (RXA) is licensed for prophylaxis of venous thromboembolism after major orthopaedic surgery of the lower limbs. Currently, no test to quantify RXA in plasma has been validated in an inter-laboratory setting. Our study had three aims: to assess i) the feasibility of RXA quantification with a commercial anti-FXa assay, ii) its accuracy and precision in an inter-laboratory setting, and iii) the influence of 10mg of RXA on routine coagulation tests. METHODS: The same chromogenic anti-FXa assay (Hyphen BioMed) was used in all participating laboratories. RXA calibrators and sets of blinded probes (aim ii.) were prepared in vitro by spiking normal plasma. The precise RXA content was assessed by high-pressure liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. For ex-vivo studies (aim iii), plasma samples from 20 healthy volunteers taken before and 2 - 3hours after ingestion of 10mg of RXA were analyzed by participating laboratories. RESULTS: RXA can be assayed chromogenically. Among the participating laboratories, the mean accuracy and the mean coefficient of variation for precision of RXA quantification were 7.0% and 8.8%, respectively. Mean RXA concentration was 114±43μg/L .RXA significantly altered prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, factor analysis for intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Determinations of thrombin time, fibrinogen, FXIII and D-Dimer levels were not affected. CONCLUSIONS: RXA plasma levels can be quantified accurately and precisely by a chromogenic anti-FXa assay on different coagulometers in different laboratories. Ingestion of 10mg RXA results in significant alterations of both PT- and aPTT-based coagulation assays.

Two functional variants of IRF5 influence the development of macular edema in patients with non-anterior uveitis.

OBJECTIVE Interferon (IFN) signaling plays a crucial role in autoimmunity. Genetic variation in interferon regulatory factor 5 (IRF5), a major regulator of the type I interferon induction, has been associated with risk of developing several autoimmune diseases. In the current study we aimed to evaluate whether three sets of correlated IRF5 genetic variants, independently associated with SLE and with different functional roles, are involved in uveitis susceptibility and its clinical subphenotypes. METHODS Three IRF5 polymorphisms, rs2004640, rs2070197 and rs10954213, representative of each group, were genotyped using TaqMan® allelic discrimination assays in a total of 263 non-anterior uveitis patients and 724 healthy controls of Spanish origin. RESULTS A clear association between two of the three analyzed genetic variants, rs2004640 and rs10954213, and the absence of macular edema was observed in the case/control analysis (P FDR =5.07E-03, OR=1.48, CI 95%=1.14-1.92 and P FDR =3.37E-03, OR=1.54, CI 95%=1.19-2.01, respectively). Consistently, the subphenotype analysis accordingly with the presence/absence of this clinical condition also reached statistical significance (rs2004640: P=0.037, OR=0.69, CI 95%=0.48-0.98; rs10954213: P=0.030, OR=0.67, CI 95%=0.47-0.96), thus suggesting that both IRF5 genetic variants are specifically associated with the lack of macular edema in uveitis patients. CONCLUSION Our results clearly showed for the first time that two functional genetic variants of IRF5 may play a role in the development of macular edema in non-anterior uveitis patients. Identifying genetic markers for macular edema could lead to the possibility of developing novel treatments or preventive therapies.

Influence on screening performance of second reading strategies in two lowvolume programs

BACKGROUND: The European Guidelines specify a minimum of 5,000 screening cases to be read yearly by radiologists carrying out second reading in non-centralized programs. This professional requirement is difficult to reach and/or to implement in regional programs covering a sparse population with a high number of participating radiology units, so that alternative blind double reading strategies must be devised. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect on breast cancer screening performances of two second reading strategies used in non-centralized, low-volume programs. METHODS: Reading performances in two Swiss regional breast cancer screening programs (cantons of Wallis and Vaud), covering female populations, aged 50-69, of about 31'000 and 72'000 inhabitants were computed and compared. Both programs had similar screening regimens and organizations, but differed with respect to second reading. One setting applied a selective strategy whereby only experienced radiologists performed second reading; the other elicited not to restrict second readers on the basis of their individual screening activity. Analysis included some 140,000 mammograms performed between 1999 and 2005. RESULTS: Overall, screening performances improved with increasing total volume of reading, albeit not in a linear fashion. Regardless of setting, radiologists attained a higher level of screening accuracy when performing second rather than first readings, and incident rather than prevalent screening cases. The effect of a selective, small group of second readers appeared to impact favorably on the false-positive rate and other indicators of screening quality. As the learning curve depends on the number of mammograms read, these distinct strategies may bear different outcome in the long run. Implications and practical issues for low-volume programs are discussed.

Influence of gender on long-term prognosis of patients with chronic heart failure seen in heart failure clinics.

BACKGROUND Controversy exists concerning the influence of gender in the prognosis of patients with heart failure and no evidence is available from specific heart failure clinics. HYPOTHESIS Women with ambulatory heart failure are managed differently than men, although their prognosis might be better than men. METHODS AND RESULTS We analyzed the clinical characteristics, complementary test results, treatment, and prognosis in 4720 patients with chronic heart failure seen in 62 specialized clinics forming part of a multicenter registry during a mean follow-up of 40 months. The mean age was 65 +/- 12 years and 71% were men. The men were younger than the women and more often had a history of hyperlipidemia and ischemic heart disease. The men had a more advanced heart failure New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class (III-IV) than the women and a greater frequency of systolic ventricular dysfunction. The men more often received treatment with beta-blockers, vasodilators, and antiplatelet aggregators as well as higher mean doses as compared with the women. The overall survival after the follow-up was similar for both genders, although the women had lower rates of survival free of admission for heart failure. CONCLUSIONS Despite the mortality of women and men with heart failure being similar, the rate of readmission for heart failure is greater in women in specialized heart failure clinics. These results may be associated with the pharmacological treatment differences observed.

Evaluation of the IL2/IL21, IL2RA and IL2RB genetic variants influence on the endogenous non-anterior uveitis genetic predisposition.

BACKGROUND Recently, different genetic variants located within the IL2/IL21 genetic region as well as within both IL2RA and IL2RB loci have been associated to multiple autoimmune disorders. We aimed to investigate for the first time the potential influence of the IL2/IL21, IL2RA and IL2RB most associated polymorphisms with autoimmunity on the endogenous non-anterior uveitis genetic predisposition. METHODS A total of 196 patients with endogenous non-anterior uveitis and 760 healthy controls, all of them from Caucasian population, were included in the current study. The IL2/IL21 (rs2069762, rs6822844 and rs907715), IL2RA (2104286, rs11594656 and rs12722495) and IL2RB (rs743777) genetic variants were genotyped using TaqMan® allelic discrimination assays. RESULTS A statistically significant difference was found for the rs6822844 (IL2/IL21 region) minor allele frequency in the group of uveitis patients compared with controls (P(-value)=0.02, OR=0.64 CI 95%=0.43-0.94) although the significance was lost after multiple testing correction. Furthermore, no evidence of association with uveitis was detected for the analyzed genetic variants of the IL2RA or IL2RB loci. CONCLUSION Our results indicate that analyzed IL2/IL21, IL2RA and IL2RB polymorphisms do not seem to play a significant role on the non-anterior uveitis genetic predisposition although further studies are needed in order to clear up the influence of these loci on the non-anterior uveitis susceptibility.

Preinfarction angina prior to first myocardial infarction does not influence long-term prognosis: a retrospective study with subgroup analysis in elderly and diabetic patients.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS Although prodromal angina occurring shortly before an acute myocardial infarction (MI) has protective effects against in-hospital complications, this effect has not been well documented after initial hospitalization, especially in older or diabetic patients. We examined whether angina 1 week before a first MI provides protection in these patients. METHODS A total of 290 consecutive patients, 143 elderly (>64 years of age) and 147 adults (<65 years of age), 68 of whom were diabetic (23.4%) and 222 nondiabetic (76.6%), were examined to assess the effect of preceding angina on long-term prognosis (56 months) after initial hospitalization for a first MI. RESULTS No significant differences were found in long-term complications after initial hospitalization in these adult and elderly patients according to whether or not they had prodromal angina (44.4% with angina vs 45.4% without in adults; 45.5% vs 58% in elderly, P < 0.2). Nor were differences found according to their diabetic status (61.5% with angina vs 72.7% without in diabetics; 37.3% vs 38.3% in nondiabetics; P = 0.4). CONCLUSION The occurrence of angina 1 week before a first MI does not confer long-term protection against cardiovascular complications after initial hospitalization in adult or elderly patients, whether or not they have diabetes.

Mass detection on mammograms: influence of signal shape uncertainty on human and model observers.

We studied the influence of signal variability on human and model observers for detection tasks with realistic simulated masses superimposed on real patient mammographic backgrounds and synthesized mammographic backgrounds (clustered lumpy backgrounds, CLB). Results under the signal-known-exactly (SKE) paradigm were compared with signal-known-statistically (SKS) tasks for which the observers did not have prior knowledge of the shape or size of the signal. Human observers' performance did not vary significantly when benign masses were superimposed on real images or on CLB. Uncertainty and variability in signal shape did not degrade human performance significantly compared with the SKE task, while variability in signal size did. Implementation of appropriate internal noise components allowed the fit of model observers to human performance.

Lactotransferrin gene functional polymorphisms do not influence susceptibility to human immunodeficiency virus-1 mother-to-child transmission in different ethnic groups

Lactotransferrin, also known as lactoferrin, is an iron binding glycoprotein that displays antiviral activity against many different infectious agents, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1. Lactotransferrin is present in the breast milk and in the female genitourinary mucosa and it has been hypothesised as a possible candidate to prevent mother-to-child HIV-1 transmission. To verify if two functional polymorphisms, Thr29Ala and Arg47Lys, in the lactotransferrin encoding gene (LTF) could affect HIV-1 infection and vertical transmission, a preliminary association study was performed in 238 HIV-1 positive and 99 HIV-1 negative children from Brazil, Italy, Africa and India. No statistically significant association for the Thr29Ala and Arg47Lys LTF polymorphisms and HIV-1 susceptibility in the studied populations was found. Additionally LTF polymorphisms frequencies were compared between the four different ethnic groups.

Influence of the Paracoccidioides brasiliensis14-3-3 and gp43 proteins on the induction of apoptosis in A549 epithelial cells

The fungal strain Paracoccidioides brasiliensisremains viable inside of epithelial cells and can induce apoptosis in this population. However, until now, the molecules that participate in this process remained unknown. Thus, this study evaluated the contribution of two P. brasiliensismolecules, the 14-3-3 and glycoprotein of 43 kDa proteins, which had been previously described as extracellular matrix adhesins and apoptosis inductors in human pneumocytes. Accordingly, epithelial cells were treated with these molecules for different periods of time and the expression of the apoptosis regulating-proteins Bak, Bax, Bcl-2, p53 and caspases were evaluated by terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labelling, flow cytometry and real-time polymerase chain reaction analysis. Our results demonstrated that treatment with these molecules induces apoptosis signalling in pulmonary epithelial cells, showing the same pattern of programmed cell-death as that observed during infection with P. brasiliensis. Thus, we could conclude that P. brasiliensisuses these molecules as virulence factors that participate not only in the fungal adhesion process to host cells, but also in other important cellular mechanisms such as apoptosis.

Immunological response to re-infections with clones of the Colombian strain of Trypanosoma cruzi with different degrees of virulence: influence on pathological features during chronic infection in mice

Re-infections with Trypanosoma cruzi are an aggravating factor for Chagas disease morbidity. The Colombian strain of T. cruzirepresents multiclonal populations formed by clonally propagating organisms with different tropisms and degrees of virulence. In the present study, the influence of successive inoculations with clones of the Colombian strain, exhibiting different degrees of virulence, on chronic myocarditis and the humoral and cellular immune responses (Col-C1 high virulence, Col-C8 medium virulence and Col-C5 low virulence) were demonstrated. Mice from three groups with a single infection were evaluated during the acute (14th-30th day) and chronic phases for 175 days. An immunofluorescence assay, ELISA and delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH) cutaneous test were also performed. Mice with a triple infection were studied on the 115th-175th days following first inoculation. The levels of IgM and IgG2a were higher in the animals with a triple infection. DTH showed a higher intensity in the inflammatory infiltrate based on the morphometric analysis during a 48 h period of the triple infection and at 24 h with a single infection. The histopathology of the heart demonstrated significant exacerbation of cardiac inflammatory lesions confirmed by the morphometric test. The humoral responses indicate a reaction to the triple infection, even with clones of the same strain.