Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.

Holocene Climatic Optimum centennial-scale paleoceanography in the NE Aegean (Mediterranean sea)

Combined micropaleontological and geochemical analyses of the high-sedimentation gravity core M-4G provided new centennial-scale paleoceanographic data for sapropel S1 deposition in the NE Aegean Sea during the Holocene Climatic Optimum. Sapropel layer S1a (10.2–8.0 ka) was deposited in dysoxic to oxic bottom waters characterized by a high abundance of benthic foraminiferal species tolerating surface sediment and/or pore water oxygen depletion (e.g., Chilostomella mediterranensis, Globobulimina affinis), and the presence of Uvigerina mediterranea, which thrives in oxic mesotrophic-eutrophic environments. Preservation of organic matter (OM) is inferred based on high organic carbon as well as loliolide and isololiolide contents, while the biomarker record and the abundances of eutrophic planktonic foraminifera document enhanced productivity. High inputs of terrigenous OM are attributed to north Aegean borderland riverine inputs. Both alkenone-based sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and δO18G. bulloides records indicate cooling at 8.2 ka (S1a) and ~7.8 ka (S1 interruption). Sapropelic layer S1b (7.7–6.4 ka) is characterized by rather oxic conditions; abundances of foraminiferal species tolerant to oxygen depletion are very low compared with the U. mediterranea rise. Strongly fluctuating SSTs demonstrate repeated cooling and associated dense water formation, with a major event at 7.4 ka followed by cold spells at 7.0, 6.8, and 6.5 ka. The prominent rise of the carbon preference index within the S1b layer indicates the delivery of less degraded terrestrial OM. The increase of algal biomarkers, labile OM-feeding foraminifera and eutrophic planktonic species pinpoints an enhanced in situ marine productivity, promoted by more efficient vertical convection due to repeated cold events. The associated contributions of labile marine OM along with fresher terrestrial OM inputs after ~7.7 ka imply sources alternative/additional to the north Aegean riverine borderland sources for the influx of organic matter in the south Limnos Basin, plausibly related to the inflow of highly productive Marmara/Black Sea waters.

Ridge Preservation With Acellular Dermal Matrix and Anorganic Bone Matrix Cell-Binding Peptide P-15 After Tooth Extraction in Humans

Background: Preventing ridge collapse with the extraction of maxillary anterior teeth is vital to an esthetic restorative result. Several regenerative techniques are available and are used for socket preservation. The aim of this study is to analyze by clinical parameters the use of acellular dermal matrix (ADM) and anorganic bovine bone matrix (ABM) with synthetic cell-binding peptide P-15 to preserve alveolar bone after tooth extraction. Methods: Eighteen patients in need of extraction of maxillary anterior teeth were selected and randomly assigned to the test group (ADM plus ABM/P-15) or the control group (ADM only). Clinical measurements were recorded initially and at 6 months after ridge-preservation procedures. Results: In the clinical measurements (external vertical palatal measurement [EVPM], external vertical buccal measurement [EVBM], and alveolar horizontal measurement [AHM]) the statistical analysis showed no difference between test and control groups initially and at 6 months. The intragroup analysis, after 6 months, showed a statistically significant reduction in the measurements for both groups. In the comparison between the two groups, the differences in the test group were as follows: EVPM = 0.83 +/- 1.53 mm; EVBM = 1.20 +/- 2.02 mm; and AHM = 2.53 +/- 1.81 mm. The differences in the control group were as follows: EVPM = 0.87 +/- 1.13 mm; EVBM = 1.50 +/- 1.15 mm; and AHM = 3.40 +/- 1.39 mm. The differences in EVPM and EVBM were not statistically significant; however, in horizontal measurement (AHM), there was a statistically significant difference (P<0.05). Conclusion: The results of this study show that ADM used as membrane associated with ABM/P-15 can be used to reduce buccal-palatal dimensions compared to ADM alone for preservation of the alveolar ridge after extraction of anterior maxillary teeth. J Periodontol 2011;82:72-79.

Dietary Quality Index and Associated Factors among Adolescents of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objective To assess dietary quality and associated factors in adolescents. Study design We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in a sample of 1584 adolescents living in areas of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Dietary intake was measured with the 24-hour recall method, and dietary quality was assessed by means of the Health Eating Index (HEI), adapted to fit to the local requirements. Linear regression analyses were performed to assess the association between the HEI and demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle variables. Results A total of 97.1% of the adolescents studied had an inadequate diet or a diet that needed improvement. The mean overall HEI score was 59.7. Lower mean HEI scores were found for fruits, dairy products, and vegetables. Male adolescents who were physically active and lived in a house or apartment had higher HEI scores. The multiple regression analyses showed that the quality of the diet improved as age decreased. Adolescents who lived in houses or apartments had higher HEI scores than adolescents living in shacks or slums, regardless of age and energy intake. Conclusions Dietary quality is associated with income and age. A better understanding of the factors associated can provide input to the formulation of policies and development of nutritional actions. (J Pediatr 2010; 156:456-60).

Effects of processing methods on amaranth starch digestibility and predicted glycemic index

Amaranth has attracted a great deal of interest in recent decades due to its valuable nutritional, functional, and agricultural characteristics. Amaranth seeds can be cooked, popped, roasted, flaked, or extruded for consumption. This study compared the in vitro starch digestibility of processed amaranth seeds to that of white bread. Raw seeds yielded rapidly digestible starch content (RDS) of 30.7% db and predicted glycemic index (pGI) of 87.2, the lowest among the studied products. Cooked, extruded, and popped amaranth seeds had starch digestibility similar to that of white bread (92.4, 91.2, and 101.3, respectively), while flaked and roasted seeds generated a slightly increased glycemic response (106.0 and 105.8, respectively). Cooking and extrusion did not alter the RDS contents of the seeds. No significant differences were observed among popped, flaked, and roasted RDS contents (38.0%,46.3%, and 42.9%, respectively), which were all lower than RDS content of bread (51.1%). Amaranth seed is a high glycemic food most likely because of its small starch granule size, low resistant starch content (< 1%), and tendency to completely lose its crystalline and granular starch structure during those heat treatments.

Body mass index values for newborns according to gestational age

Objective: The combination of twho anthropometric parameters has been more appropriate to assess body composition and proportions in children, with special attention to the Body Mass Index (BMI), as it relates weight and length. However the BMI values for the neonatal period have not been determined yet. This study shows the BMI for newborns at different gestational ages represented in a normal smoothed percentile curve. Methods: Retrospective study including 2,406 appropriate for gestational age newborns following the Alexander et al curve (1996) from 29 to 42 weeks of gestational age. Weight and lenght were measured following standard procedures. For the construction aof a normal smoothed percentile curve, the 3(rd) 5(th), 10(th), 25(th), 5(th), 75(th), 90(th) and 95(th) percentiles were determined and a statistical procedure based on the mathematical model ""sinosuoidal fit"" was applied to establish a curve that estimates biological growth parameters. Results: The Body Mass Index values for gestational age in all percentiles shows a steady increase up to 38 weeks, levels off up to the 40(th) week, followed by a slight decrease to the 42(nd) week in both genders. Conclusion: The results show a direct correlation between gestational age and Body Mass Index for both genders in the nine percentiles, and can provide a useful reference to assess intra-uterine proportional growth.

An improved estimate of leaf area index based on the histogram analysis of hemispherical photographs

Leaf area index (LAI) is a key parameter that affects the surface fluxes of energy, mass, and momentum over vegetated lands, but observational measurements are scarce, especially in remote areas with complex canopy structure. In this paper we present an indirect method to calculate the LAI based on the analyses of histograms of hemispherical photographs. The optimal threshold value (OTV), the gray-level required to separate the background (sky) and the foreground (leaves), was analytically calculated using the entropy crossover method (Sahoo, P.K., Slaaf, D.W., Albert, T.A., 1997. Threshold selection using a minimal histogram entropy difference. Optical Engineering 36(7) 1976-1981). The OTV was used to calculate the LAI using the well-known gap fraction method. This methodology was tested in two different ecosystems, including Amazon forest and pasturelands in Brazil. In general, the error between observed and calculated LAI was similar to 6%. The methodology presented is suitable for the calculation of LAI since it is responsive to sky conditions, automatic, easy to implement, faster than commercially available software, and requires less data storage. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Agribusiness Opportunity Costs and Environmental Legal Protection: Investigating Trade-Off on Hotspot Preservation in the State of So Paulo, Brazil

Prior to deforestation, So Paulo State had 79,000 km(2) covered by Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) physiognomies, but today less than 8.5% of this biodiversity hotspot remains, mostly in private lands. The global demand for agricultural goods has imposed strong pressure on natural areas, and the economic decisions of agribusiness managers are crucial to the fate of Cerrado domain remaining areas (CDRA) in Brazil. Our aim was to investigate the effectiveness of Brazilian private protected areas policy, and to propose a feasible alternative to promote CDRA protection. This article assessed the main agribusiness opportunity costs for natural areas preservation: the land use profitability and the arable land price. The CDRA percentage and the opportunity costs were estimated for 349 municipal districts of So Paulo State through secondary spatial data and profitability values of 38 main agricultural products. We found that Brazilian private protected areas policy fails to preserve CDRA, although the values of non-compliance fines were higher than average opportunity costs. The scenario with very restrictive laws on private protected areas and historical high interest rates allowed us to conceive a feasible cross compliance proposal to improve environmental and agricultural policies.

INDEX OF AN IMPLICIT DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION

In this paper we introduce the concept of the index of an implicit differential equation F(x,y,p) = 0, where F is a smooth function, p = dy/dx, F(p) = 0 and F(pp) = 0 at an isolated singular point. We also apply the results to study the geometry of surfaces in R(5).

A further exploration of a nucleophilicity index based on the gas-phase ionization potentials

An empirical nucleophilicity index based on the gas-phase ionization potentials has been recently shown to be useful categorizing and settling the nucleophilicity power of a series of captodative ethylenes reacting in cycloaddition reactions (L.R. Domingo, E. Chamorro, P. Perez, Journal of Organic Chemistry 73 (2008) 4615-4624). In the present work, the applicability of such model is tested within a broader series of substituted alkenes, substituted aromatic compounds and simple nucleophilic molecules. This index obtained within a Koopman`s theorem framework has been evaluated here in both gas and solution phases for several well-known nucleophiles. These results are found to be linearly correlated. Finally, the feasibility of the predictive character of this index has been discussed in comparison to the available experimental nucleophilicities of some amines in water. These results further support and validate the usefulness of such approximation in the modeling of the global nucleophilicity. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear refractive index of RECOB (RE = Gd and La) crystals

The Z-scan technique is employed to obtain the nonlinear refractive index (n (2)) of the Ca(4)REO(BO(3))(3) (RECOB, where RE = Gd and La) single crystals using 30 fs laser pulses centered at 780 nm for the two orthogonal orientations determined by the optical axes (X and Z) relative to the direction of propagation of the laser beam (k//Y// crystallographic b-axis). The large values of n (2) indicate that both GdCOB and LaCOB are potential hosts for Yb:RECOB lasers operating in the Kerr-lens mode locking (KLM) regime.

Time-resolved study electronic and thermal contributions to the nonlinear refractive index of Nd3+: SBN laser crystals

The propagation of an optical beam through dielectric media induces changes in the refractive index, An, which causes self-focusing or self-defocusing. In the particular case of ion-doped solids, there are thermal and non-thermal lens effects, where the latter is due to the polarizability difference, Delta alpha, between the excited and ground states, the so-called population lens (PL) effect. PL is a pure electronic contribution to the nonlinearity, while the thermal lens (TL) effect is caused by the conversion of part of the absorbed energy into heat. In time-resolved measurements such as Z-scan and TL transient experiments, it is not easy to separate these two contributions to nonlinear refractive index because they usually have similar response times. In this work, we performed time-resolved measurements using both Z-scan and mode mismatched TL in order to discriminate thermal and electronic contributions to the laser-induced refractive index change of the Nd3+-doped Strontium Barium Niobate (SrxBa1-xNb2O6) laser crystal. Combining numerical simulations with experimental results we could successfully distinguish between the two contributions to An. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NIELSEN COINCIDENCE THEORY OF FIBRE-PRESERVING MAPS AND DOLD`S FIXED POINT INDEX

Let M -> B, N -> B be fibrations and f(1), f(2): M -> N be a pair of fibre-preserving maps. Using normal bordism techniques we define an invariant which is an obstruction to deforming the pair f(1), f(2) over B to a coincidence free pair of maps. In the special case where the two fibrations axe the same and one of the maps is the identity, a weak version of our omega-invariant turns out to equal Dold`s fixed point index of fibre-preserving maps. The concepts of Reidemeister classes and Nielsen coincidence classes over B are developed. As an illustration we compute e.g. the minimal number of coincidence components for all homotopy classes of maps between S(1)-bundles over S(1) as well as their Nielsen and Reidemeister numbers.