Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

The Food Crisis: Implications for Labor

Food prices have gone up to prohibitive levels for many of the world’s poor. The vast majority of those who are hungry in the world today are working in agriculture, either as small landholders or as waged agricultural workers. The majority of the food producers have not benefited from rising prices. Apparently, the bargaining power of many producers, just as that of the end consumers, has been weakened vis-à-vis the buyers and retailers of agricultural produce. This powerlessness is also in the face of governments that fail to provide an appropriate infrastructure for smallholders and social protection. The first part of the book provides an introduction to the immediate and structural causes of the food crisis. The second part contains contributions that not only highlight the plight of rural labour but also develop tools for measuring the decent work deficit. The last part emphasizes income security as a major precondition for food security. It looks at the experiences of Brazil and India with the extension of social protection for the poor.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Coordinating Inventory Control and Pricing Strategies with Random Demand and Fixed Ordering Cost: The Finite Horizon Case

We analyze a finite horizon, single product, periodic review model in which pricing and production/inventory decisions are made simultaneously. Demands in different periods are random variables that are independent of each other and their distributions depend on the product price. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. Ordering cost includes both a fixed cost and a variable cost proportional to the amount ordered. The objective is to find an inventory policy and a pricing strategy maximizing expected profit over the finite horizon. We show that when the demand model is additive, the profit-to-go functions are k-concave and hence an (s,S,p) policy is optimal. In such a policy, the period inventory is managed based on the classical (s,S) policy and price is determined based on the inventory position at the beginning of each period. For more general demand functions, i.e., multiplicative plus additive functions, we demonstrate that the profit-to-go function is not necessarily k-concave and an (s,S,p) policy is not necessarily optimal. We introduce a new concept, the symmetric k-concave functions and apply it to provide a characterization of the optimal policy.

Coordinating Inventory Control and Pricing Strategies with Random Demand and Fixed Ordering Cost: the Infinite Horizon Case

We analyze an infinite horizon, single product, periodic review model in which pricing and production/inventory decisions are made simultaneously. Demands in different periods are identically distributed random variables that are independent of each other and their distributions depend on the product price. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. Ordering cost includes both a fixed cost and a variable cost proportional to the amount ordered. The objective is to maximize expected discounted, or expected average profit over the infinite planning horizon. We show that a stationary (s,S,p) policy is optimal for both the discounted and average profit models with general demand functions. In such a policy, the period inventory is managed based on the classical (s,S) policy and price is determined based on the inventory position at the beginning of each period.

Static Pricing for a Network Service Provider

This article studies the static pricing problem of a network service provider who has a fixed capacity and faces different types of customers (classes). Each type of customers can have its own capacity constraint but it is assumed that all classes have the same resource requirement. The provider must decide a static price for each class. The customer types are characterized by their arrival process, with a price-dependant arrival rate, and the random time they remain in the system. Many real-life situations could fit in this framework, for example an Internet provider or a call center, but originally this problem was thought for a company that sells phone-cards and needs to set the price-per-minute for each destination. Our goal is to characterize the optimal static prices in order to maximize the provider's revenue. We note that the model here presented, with some slight modifications and additional assumptions can be used in those cases when the objective is to maximize social welfare.

Risk Aversion in Inventory Management

Traditional inventory models focus on risk-neutral decision makers, i.e., characterizing replenishment strategies that maximize expected total profit, or equivalently, minimize expected total cost over a planning horizon. In this paper, we propose a framework for incorporating risk aversion in multi-period inventory models as well as multi-period models that coordinate inventory and pricing strategies. In each case, we characterize the optimal policy for various measures of risk that have been commonly used in the finance literature. In particular, we show that the structure of the optimal policy for a decision maker with exponential utility functions is almost identical to the structure of the optimal risk-neutral inventory (and pricing) policies. Computational results demonstrate the importance of this approach not only to risk-averse decision makers, but also to risk-neutral decision makers with limited information on the demand distribution.

Implementation of global make to inventory strategy at BASF SE

La optimización y armonización son factores clave para tener un buen desempeño en la industria química. BASF ha desarrollado un proyecto llamada acelerador. El objetivo de este proyecto ha sido la armonización y la integración de los procesos de la cadena de suministro a nivel mundial. El proceso básico de manejo de inventarios se quedó fuera del proyecto y debía ser analizado. El departamento de manejo de inventarios en BASF SE ha estado desarrollando su propia estrategia para la definición de procesos globales de manufactura. En este trabajo se presentará un informe de las fases de la formulación de la estrategia y establecer algunas pautas para la fase de implementación que está teniendo lugar en 2012 y 2013.

La figura de testigo en la elaboración del trauma y memoria colectiva en contextos de conflicto armado : una revisión de literatura

La presente revisión de la literatura tiene el objetivo de identificar el rol que desempeña el testigo en la elaboración individual del trauma y el papel que cumple en el establecimiento de la memoria colectiva en contextos de conflicto armado. El papel del testigo, dentro de esta situación, puede ser adoptado por el agresor, la víctima o un tercero que presencia una escena, cumpliendo con diversas funciones tanto a nivel individual como colectivo, no solo en el área jurídica, también en la antropológica, psicológica, histórica, entre otras. Su principal producción, que corresponde al testimonio, media procesos tales como la elaboración del trauma y la constitución de la memoria colectiva. El testimonio, siendo una producción lingüística, por medio de la palabra y el silencio, funciona como una herramienta con la que cuenta tanto el sujeto como las sociedades para dar sentido a su existencia. La acción de testimoniar, a través de la virtud creadora del lenguaje, permite articular a nivel individual las experiencias limite vividas por un sujeto, teniendo igualmente un efecto reparador dentro del tejido social una vez alterado.

La figura de testigo en la elaboración del trauma y memoria colectiva en contextos de conflicto armado.

La presente revisión de la literatura tiene el objetivo de identificar el rol que desempeña el testigo en la elaboración individual del trauma y el papel que cumple en el establecimiento de la memoria colectiva en contextos de conflicto armado. El papel del testigo, dentro de esta situación, puede ser adoptado por el agresor, la víctima o un tercero que presencia una escena, cumpliendo con diversas funciones tanto a nivel individual como colectivo, no solo en el área jurídica, también en la antropológica, psicológica, histórica, entre otras. Su principal producción, que corresponde al testimonio, media procesos tales como la elaboración del trauma y la constitución de la memoria colectiva. El testimonio, siendo una producción lingüística, por medio de la palabra y el silencio, funciona como una herramienta con la que cuenta tanto el sujeto como las sociedades para dar sentido a su existencia. La acción de testimoniar, a través de la virtud creadora del lenguaje, permite articular a nivel individual las experiencias limite vividas por un sujeto, teniendo igualmente un efecto reparador dentro del tejido social una vez alterado.

Las interacciones organizacionales desde la visión ecológica: el mutualismo

No es requerido en este caso

Condiciones de trabajo saludables. Análisis de los estudios realizados en Colombia y Europa en el periodo 2002-2012

INTRODUCCIÓN. El presente trabajo explora las condiciones de trabajo saludables más frecuentemente estudiadas en Colombia y Europa en el período 2002 a 2012. OBJETIVO. Este trabajo busca definir los avances en investigación de las condiciones de trabajo saludables que presentaron Colombia y Europa en el período 2002 a 2012, a través de: el análisis del concepto de salud en el trabajo desde diferentes enfoques e investigaciones; el análisis los modelos sobre condiciones saludables en el trabajo; así como la revisión, consolidación y análisis documental alrededor del estado del arte de la investigación sobre los aspectos relacionados con las condiciones psicosociales del trabajo. METODO. Investigación documental, a través de la búsqueda en base de datos y posterior consolidación, sistematización y análisis de la literatura científica que evaluaban aspectos relacionados con las condiciones de trabajo saludable, en Colombia y Europa, durante el período 2002-2012. RESULTADOS. En la revisión documental se encontró que la implementación de ambientes saludables a nivel organizacional es un esfuerzo y compromiso de los empresarios, los trabajadores y la sociedad para mejorar el bienestar de las personas en el trabajo que representa una responsabilidad social empresarial, así como una ventaja competitiva sostenible en el sector económico. De igual manera, se resalta el avance que presenta Europa y España en el desarrollo de estudios nacionales de las condiciones detrabajo saludables frente a Colombia que aún no ha tenido investigaciones de representatividad nacional.

Caracterización radiológica de pacientes con osteotomía pélvica tipo Ganz

Se realizó un estudio descriptivo observacional para describir los hallazgos radiológicos pre y postoperatorios de pacientes llevados a osteotomía periacetabular tipo Ganz, según las medidas radiológicas del mismo autor, en el Instituto de Ortopedia infantil Roosevelt entre los años 2008 y 2012.

Self-organized sociopolitical interactions as the best way to achieve organized patterns in human social systems: going beyond the top-down control of classical political regimes

La monografía presenta la auto-organización sociopolítica como la mejor manera de lograr patrones organizados en los sistemas sociales humanos, dada su naturaleza compleja y la imposibilidad de las tareas computacionales de los regímenes políticos clásico, debido a que operan con control jerárquico, el cual ha demostrado no ser óptimo en la producción de orden en los sistemas sociales humanos. En la monografía se extrapola la teoría de la auto-organización en los sistemas biológicos a las dinámicas sociopolíticas humanas, buscando maneras óptimas de organizarlas, y se afirma que redes complejas anárquicas son la estructura emergente de la auto-organización sociopolítica.

Transformaciones discursivas en el proceso de securitización del narcotráfico. Un análisis de los actos discursivos oficiales de Colombia y Estados Unidos en la Guerra contra las drogas 1986 - 1990

El tema de las drogas suscita un debate entre quienes defienden la prohibición y la represión, y aquellos que defienden alternativas como la legalización y/o regulación y otras más moderadas como la descriminalización y la despenalización. Aunque ambas posturas muestran datos empíricos que las soportan, desde el ámbito discursivo la visión represiva se ha posicionado como la más aceptada en el continente americano, más específicamente, en Latinoamérica. El presente trabajo, hace un estudio de caso del proceso de securitización del narcotráfico entre los presidentes de Estados Unidos y Colombia durante el período 1986-1990. A lo largo del texto, se analizan discursos oficiales de los presidentes de ambos Estados, resaltando las estrategias retóricas y sus transformaciones que legitimaron acciones represivas de tipo político-militar contra las drogas. Al final se apunta a reivindicar el discurso como un instrumento para reproducir creencias sobre fenómenos, en este caso, la creencia de que las drogas son una amenaza existencial a la seguridad política y militar para los Estados.