Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecastuncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called “How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?”. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydrometeorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants’ willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

Effects of intensity and positional predictability of a visual stimulus on simple reaction time

The influence of visual stimuli intensity on manual reaction time (RT) was investigated under two different attentional settings: high (Experiment 1) and low (Experiment 2) stimulus location predictability. These two experiments were also run under both binocular and monocular viewing conditions. We observed that RT decreased as stimulus intensity increased. It also decreased as the viewing condition was changed from monocular to binocular as well as the location predictability shifted from low to high. A significant interaction was found between stimulus intensity and viewing condition, but no interaction was observed between neither of these factors and location predictability. These findings support the idea that the stimulus intensity effect arises from purely sensory, pre-attentive mechanisms rather than deriving from more efficient attentional capture. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

M-deformations of A-simple germs from R(n) to R(n+1)

All A-simple corank-1 germs from R(n) to R(n+1), where n not equal 4, have an M-deformation, that is a deformation in which the maximal numbers of isolated stable singular points are simultaneously present in the image.

Termination of diamond surfaces with hydrogen, oxygen and fluorine using a small, simple plasma gun

We have formed and characterized polycrystalline diamond films with surfaces having hydrogen terminations, oxygen terminations, or fluorine terminations, using a small, simple and novel plasma gun to bombard the diamond surface, formed by plasma assisted CVD in a prior step, with ions of the wanted terminating species. The potential differences between surface regions with different terminations were measured by Kelvin Force Microscopy (KFM). The highest potential occurred for oxygen termination regions and the lowest for fluorine. The potential difference between regions with oxygen terminations and hydrogen terminations was about 80 mV, and between regions with hydrogen terminations and fluorine terminations about 150 mV. Regions with different terminations were identified and imaged using the secondary electron signal provided by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). since this signal presents contrast for surfaces with different electrical properties. The wettability of the surfaces with different terminations was evaluated, measuring contact angles. The sample with oxygen termination was the most hydrophilic, with a contact angle of 75 degrees. hydrogen-terminated regions with 83 degrees, and fluorine regions 93 degrees, the most hydrophobic sample. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tokamak magnetic field lines described by simple maps

The magnetic field line structure in a tokamak can be obtained by direct numerical integration of the field line equations. However, this is a lengthy procedure and the analysis of the solution may be very time-consuming. Otherwise we can use simple two-dimensional, area-preserving maps, obtained either by approximations of the magnetic field line equations, or from dynamical considerations. These maps can be quickly iterated, furnishing solutions that mirror the ones obtained from direct numerical integration, and which are useful when long-term studies of field line behavior are necessary (e.g. in diffusion calculations). In this work we focus on a set of simple tokamak maps for which these advantages are specially pronounced.

GLUON SATURATION AND THE FROISSART BOUND: A SIMPLE APPROACH

At very high energies we expect that the hadronic cross sections satisfy the Froissart bound, which is a well-established property of the strong interactions. In this energy regime we also expect the formation of the Color Glass Condensate, characterized by gluon saturation and a typical momentum scale: the saturation scale Q(s). In this paper we show that if a saturation window exists between the nonperturbative and perturbative regimes of Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD), the total cross sections satisfy the Froissart bound. Furthermore, we show that our approach allows us to described the high energy experimental data on pp/p (p) over bar total cross sections.

The dynamics of cargo driven by molecular motors in the context of asymmetric simple exclusion processes

We consider the dynamics of cargo driven by a collection of interacting molecular motors in the context of ail asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP). The model is formulated to account for (i) excluded-volume interactions, (ii) the observed asymmetry of the stochastic movement of individual motors and (iii) interactions between motors and cargo. Items (i) and (ii) form the basis of ASEP models and have already been considered to study the behavior of motor density profile [A. Parmeggiani. T. Franosch, E. Frey, Phase Coexistence in driven one-dimensional transport, Phys. Rev. Lett. 90 (2003) 086601-1-086601-4]. Item (iii) is new. It is introduced here as an attempt to describe explicitly the dependence of cargo movement on the dynamics of motors in this context. The steady-state Solutions Of the model indicate that the system undergoes a phase transition of condensation type as the motor density varies. We study the consequences of this transition to the behavior of the average cargo velocity. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The game of contacts: Estimating the social visibility of groups

Estimating the sizes of hard-to-count populations is a challenging and important problem that occurs frequently in social science, public health, and public policy. This problem is particularly pressing in HIV/AIDS research because estimates of the sizes of the most at-risk populations-illicit drug users, men who have sex with men, and sex workers-are needed for designing, evaluating, and funding programs to curb the spread of the disease. A promising new approach in this area is the network scale-up method, which uses information about the personal networks of respondents to make population size estimates. However, if the target population has low social visibility, as is likely to be the case in HIV/AIDS research, scale-up estimates will be too low. In this paper we develop a game-like activity that we call the game of contacts in order to estimate the social visibility of groups, and report results from a study of heavy drug users in Curitiba, Brazil (n = 294). The game produced estimates of social visibility that were consistent with qualitative expectations but of surprising magnitude. Further, a number of checks suggest that the data are high-quality. While motivated by the specific problem of population size estimation, our method could be used by researchers more broadly and adds to long-standing efforts to combine the richness of social network analysis with the power and scale of sample surveys. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A simple relation between the Leimkuhler curve and the mean residual life

In this paper, a simple relation between the Leimkuhler curve and the mean residual life is established. The result is illustrated with several models commonly used in informetrics, such as exponential, Pareto and lognormal. Finally, relationships with some other reliability concepts are also presented. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The smallest simple Moufang loop

We study the simple Moufang loop GLL(F(2)) and give a complete description of its lattice of subloops. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integral group ring of the Suzuki sporadic simple group

Using the Luthar-Passi method, we investigate the classical Zassenhaus conjecture for the normalized unit group of the integral group ring of the Suzuki sporadic simple group Suz. As a consequence, for this group we confirm the Kimmerle`s conjecture on prime graphs.

TAUT REPRESENTATIONS OF COMPACT SIMPLE LIE GROUPS

The concept of taut submanifold of Euclidean space is due to Carter and West, and can be traced back to the work of Chern and Lashof on immersions with minimal total absolute curvature and the subsequent reformulation of that work by Kuiper in terms of critical point theory. In this paper, we classify the reducible representations of compact simple Lie groups, all of whose orbits are tautly embedded in Euclidean space, with respect to Z(2)-coefficients.

Simple components of the center of FG/J(FG)

Let G be a finite group, F a field, FG the group ring of G over F, and J(FG) the Jacobson radical of FG. Using a result of Berman and Witt, we give a method to determine the structure of the center of FG/J(FG), provided that F satisfies a field theoretical condition.

Free groups in central simple algebras without Tits` theorem

Let R be a noncommutative central simple algebra, the center k of which is not absolutely algebraic, and consider units a,b of R such that {a,a(b)} freely generate a free group. It is shown that such b can be chosen from suitable Zariski dense open subsets of R, while the a can be chosen from a set of cardinality \k\ (which need not be open).

POLYNOMIAL IDENTITIES OF FINITE DIMENSIONAL SIMPLE ALGEBRAS

Let F be an algebraically closed field and let A and B be arbitrary finite dimensional simple algebras over F. We prove that A and B are isomorphic if and only if they satisfy the same identities.