Bayesian estimation of small effects in exercise and sports science

The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a ‘magnitude-based inference’ approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.

Water management capacity building to support rapidly developing mining economies

Many developing countries are experiencing rapid expansion in mining with associated water impacts. In most cases mining expansion is outpacing the building of national capacity to ensure that sustainable water management practices are implemented. Since 2011, Australia's International Mining for Development Centre (IM4DC) has funded capacity building in such countries including a program of water projects. Five projects in particular (principally covering experiences from Peru, Colombia, Ghana, Zambia, Indonesia, Philippines and Mongolia) have provided insight into water capacity building priorities and opportunities. This paper reviews the challenges faced by water stakeholders, and proposes the associated capacity needs. The paper uses the evidence derived from the IM4DC projects to develop a set of specific capacity-building recommendations. Recommendations include: the incorporation of mine water management in engineering and environmental undergraduate courses; secondments of staff to suitable partner organisations; training to allow site staff to effectively monitor water including community impacts; leadership training to support a water stewardship culture; training of officials to support implementation of catchment management approaches; and the empowerment of communities to recognise and negotiate solutions to mine-related risks. New initiatives to fund the transfer of multi-disciplinary knowledge from nations with well-developed water management practices are called for.

The mini clinical evaluation exercise (mini-CEX) for assessing clinical performance of international medical graduates

Objective: To evaluate the feasibility, reliability and acceptability of the mini clinical evaluation exercise (mini-CEX) for performance assessment among international medical graduates (IMGs). Design, setting and participants: Observational study of 209 patient encounters involving 28 IMGs and 35 examiners at three metropolitan teaching hospitals in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, September-December 2006. Main outcome measures: The reliability of the mini-CEX was estimated using generatisability (G) analysis, and its acceptability was evaluated by a written survey of the examiners and IMGs. Results: The G coefficient for eight encounters was 0.88, suggesting that the reliability of the mini-CEX was 0.90 for 10 encounters. Almost half of the IMGs (7/16) and most examiners (14/18) were satisfied with the mini-CEX as a learning tool. Most of the IMGs and examiners enjoyed the immediate feedback, which is a strong component of the tool. Conclusion: The mini-CEX is a reliable tool for performance assessment of IMGs, and is acceptable to and well received by both learners and supervisors.

12-weeks supervised exercise training is a feasible and efficacious treatment for reducing depression in youth with major depressive disorder

Introduction: Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) has high prevalence among adolescents and young adults. Evidence of any effective treatments is limited. Exercise as an effective treatment for adults has some support but studies in younger populations are lacking. Therefore the aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of brief motivational interviewing (MI) plus 12-weeks exercise training as a treatment for MDD in youth...

Retirement Transition and Well-being : A 16-year Longitudinal Study

The ageing of the labour force and falling employment rates have forced policy makers in industrialized countries to find means of increasing the well-being of older workers and of lengthening their work careers. The main objective of this thesis was to study longitudinally how health, functional capacity, subjective well-being, and lifestyle change as people grow older, and what effect retirement has on these factors and on their relationships. The present study is a follow-up questionnaire study of Finnish municipal workers, conducted in 1981 to 1997 at the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. In 1981, a postal questionnaire was sent to 7344 municipal workers in different parts of Finland. The respondents were born between 1923 and 1937. A total of 6257 persons responded to the first questionnaire. In the end, a total of 3817 persons had responded to all four (1981, 1985, 1992, 1997) questionnaires. (The response rate was 69% of the living participants). Cross-tabulations, comparison of means, logistic regression analyses and general linear models with repeated measures were used to derive the results. The transition from work life to retirement, and the following years as a pensioner were associated with many changes. Involvement in various activities increased during the transition stage but later decreased to the previous level. Physical exercise was an exception: it became increasingly popular over the years. Perceived health improved markedly from the working stage to the retirement transition stage, even though morbidity increased steadily during the follow-up. On the other hand, functional capacity decreased over the follow-up, especially among those who were occupationally active until the retirement stage. Subjective well-being remained stable during the follow-up period. There were, however, great differences based on the type of work, favouring those whose work had been mental in nature. The impact of activity level on maintaining well-being became greater during the follow-up, whereas the effect of physical functioning diminished. Good physical functioning and an active life-style contributed to staying on at work until normal retirement age. Also work-related factors, i.e. possibilities for development and influence at work, responsibility for others, meaningful work, and satisfaction with working time arrangements were positively related to continuing working. The transition from work to retirement had a positive impact on a person s health and functional capacity. The study results support the view that it should be possible to ease one s work pace during the last years of a work career. This might lower the threshold between work and retirement and convince people that there will still be time to enjoy retirement also a few years later.

Pathways to health : Determinants of health, health behaviour and health inequalities in early adulthood

There is increasing evidence that the origins of poor adult health and health inequalities can be traced back to circumstances preceding current socioeconomic position and living conditions. The life-course approach to examining the determinants of health has emphasised that exposure to adverse social and economic circumstances in earlier life or concurrent adverse circumstances due to unfavourable living conditions in earlier life may lead to poor health, health-damaging behaviour, disease or even premature death in adulthood. There is, however, still a lack of knowledge about the contribution of social and economic circumstances in childhood and youth to adult health and health inequalities, and even less is known about how environmental and behavioural factors in adulthood mediate the effects of earlier adverse experiences. The main purpose of this study was to deepen our understanding of the development of poor health, health-damaging behaviours and health inequalities during the life-course. Its aim was to find out which factors in earlier and current circumstances determine health, the most detrimental indicators of health behaviour (smoking, heavy drinking and obesity as a proxy for the balance between nutrition and exercise), and educational health differences in young adults in Finland. Following the ideas of the social pathway theory, it was assumed that childhood environment affects adult health and its proximal determinants via different pathways, including educational, work and family careers. Early adulthood was studied as a significant phase of life when many behavioural patterns and living conditions relevant to health are established. In addition, socioeconomic health inequalities seem to emerge rapidly when moving into adulthood; they are very small or non-existent in childhood and adolescence, but very marked by early middle age. The data of this study were collected in 2000 2001 as part of the Health 2000 Survey (N = 9,922), a cross-sectional and nationally representative health interview and examination survey. The main subset of data used in this thesis was the one comprising the age group 18 29 years (N = 1,894), which included information collected by standardised structured computer-aided interviews and self-administered questionnaires. The survey had a very high participation rate at almost 90% for the core questions. According to the results of this study, childhood circumstances predict the health of young adults. Almost all the childhood adversities studied were found to be associated with poor self-rated health and psychological distress in early adulthood, although fewer associations were found with the somatic morbidity typical of young adults. These effects seemed to be more or less independent of the young adult s own education. Childhood circumstances also had a strong effect on smoking and heavy drinking, although current circumstances and education in particular, played a role in mediating this effect. Parental smoking and alcohol abuse had an influence on the corresponding behaviours of offspring. Childhood circumstances had a role in the development of obesity and, to a lesser extent, overweight, particularly in women. The findings support the notion that parental education has a strong effect on early adult obesity, even independently of the young adult s own educational level. There were marked educational differences in self-rated health in early adulthood: those in the lowest educational category were most likely to have average or poorer health. Childhood social circumstances seemed to explain a substantial part of these educational differences. In addition, daily smoking and heavy drinking contributed substantially to educational health differences. However, the contribution of childhood circumstances was largely shared with health behaviours adopted by early adulthood. Employment also shared the effects of childhood circumstances on educational health differences. The results indicate that childhood circumstances are important in determining health, health behaviour and health inequalities in early adulthood. Early recognition of childhood adversities followed by relevant support measures may play an important role in preventing the unfortunate pathways leading to the development of poor health, health-damaging behaviour and health inequalities. It is crucially important to recognise the needs of children living in adverse circumstances as well as children of substance abusing parents. In addition, single-parent families would benefit from support. Differences in health and health behaviours between different sub-groups of the population mean that we can expect to see ever greater health differences when today s generation of young adults grows older. This presents a formidable challenge to national health and social policy as well as health promotion. Young adults with no more than primary level education are at greatest risk of poor health. Preventive policies should emphasise the role of low educational level as a key determinant of health-damaging behaviours and poor health. Keywords: health, health behaviour, health inequalities, life-course, socioeconomic position, education, childhood circumstances, self-rated health, psychological distress, somatic morbidity, smoking, heavy drinking, BMI, early adulthood

Correlation of structural disorder with the reversible discharge capacity of nickel hydroxide electrode

Hydrothermal treatment of a slurry of badly crystalline (beta(bc)) nickel hydroxide at different temperatures (65-170 degrees C) results in the progressive ordering of the structure by the step-wise elimination of disorders. Interstratification is eliminated at 140 degrees C, while cation vacancies are eliminated at 170 degrees C. A small percentage of stacking faults continue to persist even in `crystalline' samples. Electrochemical investigations show that the crystalline nickel hydroxide has a very low (0.4 e/Ni) reversible charge storage capacity. An incidence of at least 15% stacking faults combined with cation vacancies is essential for nickel hydroxide to perform close to its theoretical (1 e/ Ni) discharge capacity. (c) 2005 The Electrochemical Society.

Global and EU governance for sustainable forest management with special reference to capacity building in Ethiopia and Southern Sudan

The purpose of this study was to produce information on and practical recommendations for informed decision-making on and capacity building for sustainable forest management (SFM) and good forest governance. This was done within the overall global framework for sustainable development with special emphasis on the EU and African frameworks and on Southern Sudan and Ethiopia in particular. The case studies on Southern Sudan and Ethiopia focused on local, national and regional issues. Moreover, this study attempted to provide both theoretical and practical new insight. The aim was to build an overall theoretical framework and to study its key contents and main implications for SFM and good forest governance at all administration levels, for providing new tools for capacity building in natural resources management. The theoretical framework and research approach were based on the original research problem and the general and specific aims of the study. The key elements of the framework encompass sustainable development, global and EU governance, sustainable forest management (SFM), good forest governance, as well as international and EU law. The selected research approach comprised matrix-based assessment of international, regional (EU and Africa) and national (Southern Sudan and Ethiopia) policy and legal documents. The specific case study on Southern Sudan also involved interviews and group discussions with local community members and government officials. As a whole, this study attempted to link the global, regional, national and local levels in forest-sector development and especially to analyse how the international policy development in environmental and forestry issues is reflected in field-level progress towards SFM and good forest governance, for the specific cases of Southern Sudan and Ethiopia. The results on Southern Sudan focused on the existing situation and perceived needs in capacity building for SFM and good forest governance at all administration levels. Specifically, the results of the case study on Southern Sudan presented the current situation in selected villages in the northern parts of Renk County in Upper Nile State, and the implications of Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) and of the new forest policy framework for capacity building actions. The results on Ethiopia focused on training, extension, research, education and new curriculum development within higher education institutions and particularly at the Wondo Genet College of Forestry and Natural Resources (WGCF-NR), which administratively lies under Hawassa University. The results suggest that, for both cases studies, informed decision-making on and capacity building for SFM and good forest governance require comprehensive, long-term, cross-sectoral, coherent and consistent approaches within the dynamic and evolving overall global framework, including its multiple inter-linked levels. The specific priority development and focus areas comprised the establishment of SFM and good forest governance in accordance with the overall sustainable development priorities and with more focus on the international trade in forest products that are derived from sustainable and legal sources with an emphasis on effective forest law enforcement and governance at all levels. In Upper Nile State in Southern Sudan there were positive development signals such as the will of the local people to plant more multipurpose trees on farmlands and range lands as well as the recognition of the importance of forests and trees for sustainable rural development where food security is a key element. In addition, it was evident that the local communities studied in Southern Sudan also wanted to establish good governance systems through partnerships with all actors and through increased local responsibilities. The results also suggest that the implementation of MEAs at the local level in Southern Sudan requires mutually supportive and coherent approaches within the agreements as well as significantly more resources and financial and technical assistance for capacity building, training and extension. Finally, the findings confirm the importance of full utilization of the existing local governance and management systems and their traditional and customary knowledge and practices, and of new development partnerships with full participation of all stakeholders. The planned new forest law for Southern Sudan, based on an already existing new forest policy, is expected to recognize the roles of local-level actors, and it would thus obviously facilitate the achieving of sustainable forest management.

Expression of lactate transporters MCT1, MCT2, MCT4 and the ancillary protein CD147 in horse muscle and red blood cells

Monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs) transport lactate and protons across cell membranes. During intense exercise, lactate and protons accumulate in the exercising muscle and are transported to the plasma. In the horse, MCTs are responsible for the majority of lactate and proton removal from exercising muscle, and are therefore also the main mechanism to hinder the decline in pH in muscle cells. Two isoforms, MCT1 and MCT4, which need an ancillary protein CD147, are expressed in equine muscle. In the horse, as in other species, MCT1 is predominantly expressed in oxidative fibres, where its likely role is to transport lactate into the fibre to be used as a fuel at rest and during light work, and to remove lactate during intensive exercise when anaerobic energy production is needed. The expression of CD147 follows the fibre type distribution of MCT1. These proteins were detected in both the cytoplasm and sarcolemma of muscle cells in the horse breeds studied: Standardbred and Coldblood trotters. In humans, training increases the expression of both MCT1 and MCT4. In this study, the proportion of oxidative fibres in the muscle of Norwegian-Swedish Coldblood trotters increased with training. Simultaneously, the expression of MCT1 and CD147, measured immunohistochemically, seemed to increase more in the cytoplasm of oxidative fibres than in the fast fibre type IIB. Horse MCT4 antibody failed to work in immunohistochemistry. In the future, a quantitative method should be introduced to examine the effect of training on muscle MCT expression in the horse. Lactate can be taken up from plasma by red blood cells (RBCs). In horses, two isoforms, MCT1 and MCT2, and the ancillary protein CD147 are expressed in RBC membranes. The horse is the only species studied in which RBCs have been found to express MCT2, and the physiological role of this protein in RBCs is unknown. The majority of horses express all three proteins, but 10-20% of horses express little or no MCT1 or CD147. This leads to large interindividual variation in the capacity to transport lactate into RBCs. Here, the expression level of MCT1 and CD147 was bimodally distributed in three studied horse breeds: Finnhorse, Standardbred and Thoroughbred. The level of MCT2 expression was distributed unimodally. The expression level of lactate transporters could not be linked to performance markers in Thoroughbred racehorses. In the future, better performance indexes should be developed to better enable the assessment of whether the level of MCT expression affects athletic performance. In human subjects, several mutations in MCT1 have been shown to cause decreased lactate transport activity in muscle and signs of myopathy. In the horse, two amino acid sequence variations, one of which was novel, were detected in MCT1 (V432I and K457Q). The mutations found in horses were in different areas compared to mutations found in humans. One mutation (M125V) was detected in CD147. The mutations found could not be linked with exercise-induced myopathy. MCT4 cDNA was sequenced for the first time in the horse, but no mutations could be detected in this protein.

Cultural differences and capability transfer in cross-border acquisitions: the mediating roles of capability complementarity, absorptive capacity, and social integration

This paper presents an integrative model of the impact of cultural differences on capability transfer in cross-border acquisitions. We propose that cultural differences affect the post-acquisition capability transfer through their impact on social integration, potential absorptive capacity, and capability complementarity. Two dynamic variables – the use of social integration mechanisms, and the degree of operational integration of the acquired unit – are proposed to moderate the effects of cultural differences on social integration and potential absorptive capacity. The implications for acquisition research and practice are discussed.

Executive Stock Options: Exercise Policy and Market Reaction

In this paper I investigate the exercise policy, and the market reaction to that, of the executive stock option holders in Finland. The empirical tests are conducted with aggregated firm level data from 34 firms and 41 stock option programs. I find some evidence of an inverse relation between the exercise intensity of the options holders and the future abnormal return of the company share price. This finding is supported by the view that information about future company prospect seems to be the only theoretical attribute that could delay the exercise of the options. Moreover, a high concentration of exercises in the beginning of the exercise window is predicted and the market is expected to react to deviations from this. The empirical findings however show that the market does not react homogenously to the information revealed by the late exercises.

An analytical model for capacity evaluation of VoIP on HCCA and TCP file transfers over EDCA in an IEEE 802.11e WLAN

In the context of the IEEE 802.11e standard for WLANs, we provide an analytical model for obtaining the maximum number of VoIP calls that can be supported on HCCA, such that the delay QoS constraint of the accepted calls is met, when TCP downloads are coexistent on EDCA. In this scenario, we derive the TCP download throughput by using an analytical model for the case where only TCP sessions are present in the WLAN. We show that the analytical model for combined voice and TCP transfers provides accurate results in comparison with simulations (using ns-2).

An analytical model for the capacity estimation of combined VoIP and TCP file transfers over EDCA in an IEEE 802.11e WLAN

In this paper we develop and numerically explore the modeling heuristic of using saturation attempt probabilities as state dependent attempt probabilities in an IEEE 802.11e infrastructure network carrying packet telephone calls and TCP controlled file downloads, using Enhanced Distributed Channel Access (EDCA). We build upon the fixed point analysis and performance insights in [1]. When there are a certain number of nodes of each class contending for the channel (i.e., have nonempty queues), then their attempt probabilities are taken to be those obtained from saturation analysis for that number of nodes. Then we model the system queue dynamics at the network nodes. With the proposed heuristic, the system evolution at channel slot boundaries becomes a Markov renewal process, and regenerative analysis yields the desired performance measures.The results obtained from this approach match well with ns2 simulations. We find that, with the default IEEE 802.11e EDCA parameters for AC 1 and AC 3, the voice call capacity decreases if even one file download is initiated by some station. Subsequently, reducing the voice calls increases the file download capacity almost linearly (by 1/3 Mbps per voice call for the 11 Mbps PHY).

Bearing capacity of interfering multiple strip footings by using lower bound finite elements limit analysis

The ultimate bearing capacity of a number of multiple strip footings, identically spaced and equally loaded to failure at the same time,is computed by using the lower bound limit analysis in combination with finite elements. The efficiency factor due to the component of soil unit weight, is computed with respect to changes in the clear spacing (xi(gamma)) between the footings. It is noted that the failure load for a footing in the group becomes always greater than that of a single isolated footing. The values of xi(gamma) for the smooth footings are found to be always lower than the rough footings. The values ofxi(gamma) are found to increase continuously with a decrease in the spacing between footings. As compared to the available theoretical and experimental results reported in literature, the present analysis provides generally a little lower values of xi(gamma). (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reducibility of Ce1-xZrxO2: origin of enhanced oxygen storage capacity

We combine first-principles calculations with EXAFS studies to investigate the origin of high oxygen storage capacity in ceria-zirconia solid solution, prepared by solution combustion method. We find that nanocrystalline Ce0.5Zr0.5O2 can be reduced to Ce0.5Zr0.5O1.57 by H-2 upto 850 degrees C with an OSC of 65 cc/gm which is extremely high. Calculated local atomic-scale structure reveals the presence of long and short bonds resulting in four-fold coordination of the cations, confirmed by the EXAFS studies. Bond valence analysis of the microscopic structure and energetics is used to evaluate the strength of binding of different oxide ions and vacancies. We find the presence of strongly and weakly bound oxygens, of which the latter are responsible for the higher oxygen storage capacity in the mixed oxides than in the pure CeO2.