Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

Comparing Etest and Broth Microdilution for Antifungal Susceptibility Testing of the Most-Relevant Pathogenic Molds.

Invasive mold infections are life-threatening diseases for which appropriate antifungal therapy is crucial. Their epidemiology is evolving, with the emergence of triazole-resistant Aspergillus spp. and multidrug-resistant non-Aspergillus molds. Despite the lack of interpretive criteria, antifungal susceptibility testing of molds may be useful in guiding antifungal therapy. The standard broth microdilution method (BMD) is demanding and requires expertise. We assessed the performance of a commercialized gradient diffusion method (Etest method) as an alternative to BMD. The MICs or minimal effective concentrations (MECs) of amphotericin B, voriconazole, posaconazole, caspofungin, and micafungin were assessed for 290 clinical isolates of the most representative pathogenic molds (154 Aspergillus and 136 non-Aspergillus isolates) with the BMD and Etest methods. Essential agreements (EAs) within ±2 dilutions of ≥90% between the two methods were considered acceptable. EAs for amphotericin B and voriconazole were >90% for most potentially susceptible species. For posaconazole, the correlation was acceptable for Mucoromycotina but Etest MIC values were consistently lower for Aspergillus spp. (EAs of <90%). Excellent EAs were found for echinocandins with highly susceptible (MECs of <0.015 μg/ml) or intrinsically resistant (MECs of >16 μg/ml) strains. However, MEC determinations lacked consistency between methods for strains exhibiting mid-range MECs for echinocandins. We concluded that the Etest method is an appropriate alternative to BMD for antifungal susceptibility testing of molds under specific circumstances, including testing with amphotericin B or triazoles for non-Aspergillus molds (Mucoromycotina and Fusarium spp.). Additional study of molecularly characterized triazole-resistant Aspergillus isolates is required to confirm the ability of the Etest method to detect voriconazole and posaconazole resistance among Aspergillus spp.

Further molecular profiling of tumors harboring therapeutic targets within non-small cell lung cancer

Background: Treatment of NSCLC has been revolutionized in recent years with the introduction of several targeted therapies for selected genetically altered subtypes of NSCLC. A better understanding of molecular characteristics of NSCLC, which features common drug targets, may identify new therapeutic options. Methods: Over 6,700 non-small cell lung cancer cases referred to Caris Life Sciences between 2009 and 2014. Diagnoses and history were collected from referring physicians. Specific testing was performed per physician request and included a combination of sequencing (Sanger, NGS or pyrosequencing), protein expression (IHC), gene amplification/rearrangement (CISH or FISH), and/or RNA fragment analysis. Results: Tumors profiles from patients with hormone receptor positive disease (HER2, ER, PR, or AR positive by IHC) (n=629), HER2 mutations (n=8) ALK rearrangements (n=55), ROS1 rearrangement (n=17), cMET amplification or mutation (n=126), and cKIT mutation (n=11) were included in this analysis and compared to the whole cohort. Tumors with ALK rearrangement overexpressed AR in 18% of cases, and 7% presented with concomitant KRAS mutation. Lower rates of PTEN loss, as assessed by IHC, were observed in ALK positive (20%), ROS1 positive (9%) and cKIT mutated tumors (25%) compared to the overall NSCLC population (58%). cMET was overexpressed in 66% of ROS1 translocated and 57% of HER2 mutated tumors. cKIT mutations were found co-existing with APC (20%) and EGFR (20%) mutations. Pathway analysis revealed that hormone receptor positive disease carried more mutations in the ERK pathway (32%) compared to 9% in the mTOR pathway. 25% of patients with HER2 mutations harbored a co-existing mutation in the mTOR pathway. Conclusions: Pathway profiling reveals that NSCLC tumors present more often than reported with several concomitant alterations affecting the ERK or AKT pathway. Additionally, they are also characterized by the expression of potential biological modifiers of the cell cycle like hormonal receptors, representing a rationale for dual inhibition strategies in selected patients. Further refining of the understanding of NSCLC biomarker profile will optimize research for new treatment strategies.

A new alternative method for testing skin irritation using a fresh human skin model

La dermatite irritative est décrite comme une réaction réversible, non immunologique caractérisée par des lésions d'aspect très variable, allant de la simple rougeur jusqu'à la formation de bulles voire d'une nécrose, accompagnée de prurit ou d'une sensation de brûlure suite à I' application d'une substance chimique. Le teste de prédiction d'irritation cutanée est traditionnellement depuis les années 1940 le Test de Draize. Ce test consiste en l'application d'une substance chimique sur une peau rasée de lapin pendant 4h et de regarder à 24h si des signes cliniques d'irritations sont présents. Cette méthode critiquable autant d'un point de vue éthique que qualitative reste actuellement le teste le plus utilisé. Depuis le début des années 2000 de nouvelles méthodes in vitro se sont développées tel que le model d'épiderme humain recombiné (RHE). Il s agit d'une multicouche de kératinocyte bien différencié obtenu depuis une culture de don d'ovocyte. Cependant cette méthode en plus d'être très couteuse n'obtient au mieux que 76% de résultat similaire comparé au test in vivo humain. Il existe donc la nécessité de développer une nouvelle méthode in vitro qui simulerait encore mieux la réalité anatomique et physiologique retrouvée in vivo. Notre objectif a été de développer cette nouvelle méthode in vitro. Pour cela nous avons travaillé avec de la peau humaine directement prélevée après une abdominoplastie. Celle ci après préparation avec un dermatome, un couteau dont la lame est réglable pour découper l'épaisseur souhaitée de peau, est montée dans un système de diffusion cellulaire. La couche cornée est alors exposée de manière optimale à 1 ml de la substance chimique testée pendant 4h. L'échantillon de peau est alors fixé dans du formaldéhyde pour permettre la préparation de lames standards d'hématoxyline et éosine. L'irritation est alors investiguée selon des critères histopathologiques de spongioses, de nécroses et de vacuolisations cellulaires. Les résultats de ce.tte première batterie de testes sont plus que prometteurs. En effet, comparé au résultat in vivo, nous obtenons 100% de concordance pour les 4 même substances testes irritantes ou non irritantes, ce qui est supérieur au model d épiderme humain recombiné (76%). De plus le coefficient de variation entre les 3 différentes séries est inférieur à 0.1 ce qui montre une bonne reproductibilité dans un même laboratoire. Dans le futur cette méthode va devoir être testée avec un plus grand nombre de substances chimiques et sa reproductibilité évaluée dans différents laboratoires. Mais cette première evaluation, très encourageante, ouvre des pistes précieuses pour l'avenir des tests irritatifs.

Little evidence for association between the TGFBR1*6A variant and colorectal cancer: a family-based association study on non-syndromic family members from Australia and Spain.

Genome-wide linkage studies have identified the 9q22 chromosomal region as linked with colorectal cancer (CRC) predisposition. A candidate gene in this region is transforming growth factor beta receptor 1 (TGFBR1). Investigation of TGFBR1 has focused on the common genetic variant rs11466445, a short exonic deletion of nine base pairs which results in truncation of a stretch of nine alanine residues to six alanine residues in the gene product. While the six alanine (*6A) allele has been reported to be associated with increased risk of CRC in some population based study groups this association remains the subject of robust debate. To date, reports have been limited to population-based case-control association studies, or case-control studies of CRC families selecting one affected individual per family. No study has yet taken advantage of all the genetic information provided by multiplex CRC families. Methods: We have tested for an association between rs11466445 and risk of CRC using several family-based statistical tests in a new study group comprising members of non-syndromic high risk CRC families sourced from three familial cancer centres, two in Australia and one in Spain. Results: We report a finding of a nominally significant result using the pedigree-based association test approach (PBAT; p = 0.028), while other family-based tests were non-significant, but with a p-value < 0.10 in each instance. These other tests included the Generalised Disequilibrium Test (GDT; p = 0.085), parent of origin GDT Generalised Disequilibrium Test (GDT-PO; p = 0.081) and empirical Family-Based Association Test (FBAT; p = 0.096, additive model). Related-person case-control testing using the 'More Powerful' Quasi-Likelihood Score Test did not provide any evidence for association (M-QL5; p = 0.41). Conclusions: After conservatively taking into account considerations for multiple hypothesis testing, we find little evidence for an association between the TGFBR1*6A allele and CRC risk in these families. The weak support for an increase in risk in CRC predisposed families is in agreement with recent meta-analyses of case-control studies, which estimate only a modest increase in sporadic CRC risk among 6*A allele carriers.

Food Safety Testing: Rapid Molecular Methods for Chemical and Biological Hazards

The central goal of food safety policy in the European Union (EU) is to protect consumer health by guaranteeing a high level of food safety throughout the food chain. This goal can in part be achieved by testing foodstuffs for the presence of various chemical and biological hazards. The aim of this study was to facilitate food safety testing by providing rapid and user-friendly methods for the detection of particular food-related hazards. Heterogeneous competitive time-resolved fluoroimmunoassays were developed for the detection of selected veterinary residues, that is coccidiostat residues, in eggs and chicken liver. After a simplified sample preparation procedure, the immunoassays were performed either in manual format with dissociation-enhanced measurement or in automated format with pre-dried assay reagents and surface measurement. Although the assays were primarily designed for screening purposes providing only qualitative results, they could also be used in a quantitative mode. All the developed assays had good performance characteristics enabling reliable screening of samples at concentration levels required by the authorities. A novel polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based assay system was developed for the detection of Salmonella spp. in food. The sample preparation included a short non-selective pre-enrichment step, after which the target cells were collected with immunomagnetic beads and applied to PCR reaction vessels containing all the reagents required for the assay in dry form. The homogeneous PCR assay was performed with a novel instrument platform, GenomEra^™, and the qualitative assay results were automatically interpreted based on end-point time-resolved fluorescence measurements and cut-off values. The assay was validated using various food matrices spiked with sub-lethally injured Salmonella cells at levels of 1-10 colony forming units (CFU)/25 g of food. The main advantage of the system was the exceptionally short time to result; the entire process starting from the pre-enrichment and ending with the PCR result could be completed in eight hours. In conclusion, molecular methods using state-of-the-art assay techniques were developed for food safety testing. The combination of time-resolved fluorescence detection and ready-to-use reagents enabled sensitive assays easily amenable to automation. Consequently, together with the simplified sample preparation, these methods could prove to be applicable in routine testing.

Testing the FTPL across government tiers

Control on regional government budgets is important in a monetary union as lower tiers of government have fewer incentives to consolidate debt. According to the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level; unsustainable non-Ricardian fiscal policies eventually force monetary policy to adjust. Hence, uncoordinated and non-regulated regional fiscal policies would therefore threaten price stability for the monetary union as a whole. However, the union central bank is not without defense. A federal government that internalises the spillover effect of non-Ricardian fiscal policies on the price level can offset non-Ricardian regional fiscal policies. A federal government, which taxes and transfers resources between regions, may compensate for unsustainable regional fiscal policies so as to keep fiscal policy Ricardian on aggregate. Following Canzoneri et al. (2001), we test the validity of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level for both federal and regional governments in Germany. We find evidence of a spillover effect of unsustainable policies on the price level for other Länder. However, the German federal government offsets this effect on the price level by running Ricardian policies. These results have implications for the regulation of fiscal policies in the EMU.

Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis on the Baltic Stock Markets

The purpose of the thesis is to analyze whether the returns of general stock market indices of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania follow the random walk hypothesis (RWH), and in addition, whether they are consistent with the weak-form efficiency criterion. Also the existence of the day-of-the-week anomaly is examined in the same regional markets. The data consists of daily closing quotes of the OMX Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius total return indices for the sample period from January 3, 2000 to August 28, 2009. Moreover, the full sample period is also divided into two sub-periods. The RWH is tested by applying three quantitative methods (i.e. the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, serial correlation test and non-parametric runs test). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with dummy variables is employed to detect the day-of-the-week anomalies. The random walk hypothesis (RWH) is rejected in the Estonian and Lithuanian stock markets. The Latvian stock market exhibits more efficient behaviour, although some evidence of inefficiency is also found, mostly during the first sub-period from 2000 to 2004. Day-of-the-week anomalies are detected on every stock market examined, though no longer during the later sub-period.

Externally excited synchronous machine: Testing the automation concept

This bachelor’s thesis is a part of the research project realized in the summer 2011 in Lappeenranta University of Technology. The goal of the project was to develop an automation concept for controlling the externally excited synchronous motor. Thesis concentrates on the testing planning and testing the system. Testing plan was made for three sectors: For the PLC program testing, for the communication testing and for the whole system testing. PLC program was tested with white box and destructive methods. Communication testing was done by switching maximum com-munication speed and checked if communication was reliable. Whole system testing included among other things speed and torque controlling. The system was tested with exploratory testing also. This enabled more reliable and broader testing than with systematical testing only.

Ultrasonic and Electrokinetic Remediation of Low Permeability Soil Contaminated with Persistent Organic Pollutants

Electrokinetics has emerged as a potential technique for in situ soil remediation and especially unique because of the ability to work in low permeability soil. In electrokinetic remediation, non-polar contaminants like most organic compounds are transported primarily by electroosmosis, thus the process is effective only if the contaminants are soluble in pore fluid. Therefore, enhancement is needed to improve mobility of these hydrophobic compounds, which tend to adsorb strongly to the soil. On the other hand, as a novel and rapidly growing science, the applications of ultrasound in environmental technology hold a promising future. Compared to conventional methods, ultrasonication can bring several benefits such as environmental friendliness (no toxic chemical are used or produced), low cost, and compact instrumentation. It also can be applied onsite. Ultrasonic energy applied into contaminated soils can increase desorption and mobilization of contaminants and porosity and permeability of soil through developing of cavitation. The research investigated the coupling effect of the combination of these two techniques, electrokinetics and ultrasonication, in persistent organic pollutant removal from contaminated low permeability clayey soil (with kaolin as a model medium). The preliminary study checked feasibility of ultrasonic treatment of kaolin highly contaminated by persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The laboratory experiments were conducted in various conditions (moisture, frequency, power, duration time, initial concentration) to examine the effects of these parameters on the treatment process. Experimental results showed that ultrasonication has a potential to remove POPs, although the removal efficiencies were not high with short duration time. The study also suggested intermittent ultrasonication over longer time as an effective means to increase the removal efficiencies. Then, experiments were conducted to compare the performances among electrokinetic process alone and electrokinetic processes combined with surfactant addition and mainly with ultrasonication, in designed cylinders (with filtercloth separating central part and electrolyte parts) and in open pans. Combined electrokinetic and ultrasonic treatment did prove positive coupling effect compared to each single process alone, though the level of enhancement is not very significant. The assistance of ultrasound in electrokinetic remediation can help reduce POPs from clayey soil by improving the mobility of hydrophobic organic compounds and degrading these contaminants through pyrolysis and oxidation. Ultrasonication also sustains higher current and increases electroosmotic flow. Initial contaminant concentration is an essential input parameter that can affect the removal effectiveness.

The use of non-human primates as animal models for the study of hepatitis viruses

Hepatitis viruses belong to different families and have in common a striking hepatotropism and restrictions for propagation in cell culture. The transmissibility of hepatitis is in great part limited to non-human primates. Enterically transmitted hepatitis viruses (hepatitis A virus and hepatitis E virus) can induce hepatitis in a number of Old World and New World monkey species, while the host range of non-human primates susceptible to hepatitis viruses transmitted by the parenteral route (hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus and hepatitis delta virus) is restricted to few species of Old World monkeys, especially the chimpanzee. Experimental studies on non-human primates have provided an invaluable source of information regarding the biology and pathogenesis of these viruses, and represent a still indispensable tool for vaccine and drug testing.

Increased training prevents the impairing effect of intra-amygdala infusion of the non-NMDA receptor antagonist CNQX on inhibitory avoidance expression

Intra-amygdala infusion of the non-N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonist 6-cyano-7-nitroquinoxaline-2,3-dione (CNQX) prior to testing impairs inhibitory avoidance retention test performance. Increased training attenuates the impairing effects of amygdala lesions and intra-amygdala infusions of CNQX. The objective of the present study was to determine the effects of additional training on the impairing effects of intra-amygdala CNQX on expression of the inhibitory avoidance task. Adult female Wistar rats bilaterally implanted with cannulae into the border between the central and the basolateral nuclei of the amygdala were submitted to a single session or to three training sessions (0.2 mA, 24-h interval between sessions) in a step-down inhibitory avoidance task. A retention test session was held 48 h after the last training. Ten minutes prior to the retention test session, the animals received a 0.5-µl infusion of CNQX (0.5 µg) or its vehicle (25% dimethylsulfoxide in saline). The CNQX infusion impaired, but did not block, retention test performance in animals submitted to a single training session. Additional training prevented the impairing effect of CNQX. The results suggest that amygdaloid non-NMDA receptors may not be critical for memory expression in animals given increased training.

New [18F]Tracers for Alzheimer's Disease Imaging. Labeling Synthesis And Biological Testing

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia. Characteristic changes in an AD brain are the formation of β-amyloid protein (Aβ) plaques and neurofibrillary tangles, though other alterations in the brain have also been connected to AD. No cure is available for AD and it is one of the leading causes of death among the elderly in developed countries. Liposomes are biocompatible and biodegradable spherical phospholipid bilayer vesicles that can enclose various compounds. Several functional groups can be attached on the surface of liposomes in order to achieve long-circulating target-specific liposomes. Liposomes can be utilized as drug carriers and vehicles for imaging agents. Positron emission tomography (PET) is a non-invasive imaging method to study biological processes in living organisms. In this study using nucleophilic 18F-labeling synthesis, various synthesis approaches and leaving groups for novel PET imaging tracers have been developed to target AD pathology in the brain. The tracers were the thioflavin derivative [18F]flutemetamol, curcumin derivative [18F]treg-curcumin, and functionalized [18F]nanoliposomes, which all target Aβ in the AD brain. These tracers were evaluated using transgenic AD mouse models. In addition, 18F-labeling synthesis was developed for a tracer targeting the S1P3 receptor. The chosen 18F-fluorination strategy had an effect on the radiochemical yield and specific activity of the tracers. [18F]Treg-curcumin and functionalized [18F]nanoliposomes had low uptake in AD mouse brain, whereas [18F]flutemetamol exhibited the appropriate properties for preclinical Aβ-imaging. All of these tracers can be utilized in studies of the pathology and treatment of AD and related diseases.

Novel virtual environment and real-time simulation based methods for improving life-cycle efficiency of non-road mobile machinery

Virtual environments and real-time simulators (VERS) are becoming more and more important tools in research and development (R&D) process of non-road mobile machinery (NRMM). The virtual prototyping techniques enable faster and more cost-efficient development of machines compared to use of real life prototypes. High energy efficiency has become an important topic in the world of NRMM because of environmental and economic demands. The objective of this thesis is to develop VERS based methods for research and development of NRMM. A process using VERS for assessing effects of human operators on the life-cycle efficiency of NRMM was developed. Human in the loop simulations are ran using an underground mining loader to study the developed process. The simulations were ran in the virtual environment of the Laboratory of Intelligent Machines of Lappeenranta University of Technology. A physically adequate real-time simulation model of NRMM was shown to be reliable and cost effective in testing of hardware components by the means of hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulations. A control interface connecting integrated electro-hydraulic energy converter (IEHEC) with virtual simulation model of log crane was developed. IEHEC consists of a hydraulic pump-motor and an integrated electrical permanent magnet synchronous motorgenerator. The results show that state of the art real-time NRMM simulators are capable to solve factors related to energy consumption and productivity of the NRMM. A significant variation between the test drivers is found. The results show that VERS can be used for assessing human effects on the life-cycle efficiency of NRMM. HIL simulation responses compared to that achieved with conventional simulation method demonstrate the advances and drawbacks of various possible interfaces between the simulator and hardware part of the system under study. Novel ideas for arranging the interface are successfully tested and compared with the more traditional one. The proposed process for assessing the effects of operators on the life-cycle efficiency will be applied for wider group of operators in the future. Driving styles of the operators can be analysed statistically from sufficient large result data. The statistical analysis can find the most life-cycle efficient driving style for the specific environment and machinery. The proposed control interface for HIL simulation need to be further studied. The robustness and the adaptation of the interface in different situations must be verified. The future work will also include studying the suitability of the IEHEC for different working machines using the proposed HIL simulation method.

Evaluation of genotype resistance testing for salvage antiretroviral therapy at AIDS care centers from Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil

The availability of HIV-1 genotype resistance testing (GRT) to clinicians has been insufficiently studied outside randomized clinical trials. The present study evaluated the outcome of salvage antiretroviral therapy (ART) recommended by an expert physician based on GRT in a non-clinical trial setting in Ribeirão Preto, Brazil. A prospective, open, nonrandomized study evaluating easy access to GRT at six Brazilian AIDS Clinics was carried out. This cooperative study analyzed the efficacy of treatment recommended to patients whose salvage ART was guided by GRT with that of treatment with ART based only on previous ART history. A total of 112 patients with ART failure were included in the study, and 77 of them were submitted to GRT. The median CD4 cell count and viral load for these 77 patients at baseline were (mean ± SD) 252.1 ± 157.4 cells/µL and 4.60 ± 0.5 log10 HIV RNA copies/mL, respectively. The access time, i.e., the time elapsed between ordering the GRT and receiving the result was, on average, 71.9 ± 37.3 days. The study results demonstrated that access to GRT followed by expert recommendations did not improve the time to persistent treatment failure when compared to conventional salvage ART. Access to GRT in this Brazilian community health care setting did not improve the long-term virologic outcomes of HIV-infected patients experiencing treatment failure. This result is probably related to the long time required to implement ART guided by GRT.