Les TIC a l'ensenyament de la modelització matemàtica en Ciències Econòmiques i en Ciències Experimentals

Aquest projecte proposa materials didàctics per a un nou plantejament de les assignatures de Matemàtiques dels primers cursos de Ciències Empresarials i d'Enginyeria Tècnica, més acord amb el procés de convergència europea, basat en la realització de projectes que anomenem “Tallers de Modelització Matemàtica” (TMM) en els quals: (1) Els alumnes parteixen de situacions i problemes reals per als quals han de construir per sí mateixos els models matemàtics més adients i, a partir de la manipulació adequada d’aquests models, poden obtenir la informació necessària per donar-los resposta. (2) El treball de construcció, experimentació i avaluació dels models es realitza amb el suport de la calculadora simbòlica Wiris i del full de càlcul Excel com a instruments “normalitzats” del treball matemàtic d’estudiants i professors. (3) S’adapten els programes de les assignatures de matemàtiques de primer curs per tal de poder-les associar a un petit nombre de Tallers que parteixen de situacions adaptades a cada titulació. L’assignatura de Matemàtiques per a les Ciències Empresarials s’articula entorn de dos tallers independents: “Matrius de transició” pel que fa a l’àlgebra lineal i “Previsió de vendes” per a la modelització funcional en una variable. L’assignatura de Matemàtiques per a l’Enginyeria s’articula entorn d’un únic taller, “Models de poblacions”, que abasta la majoria de continguts del curs: successions i models funcionals en una variable, àlgebra lineal i equacions diferencials. Un conjunt d’exercicis interactius basats en la calculadora simbòlica WIRIS (Wiris-player) serveix de suport per al treball tècnic imprescindible per al desenvolupament de les dues assignatures. L’experimentació d’aquests tallers durant 2 cursos consecutius (2006/07 i 2007/08) en dues universitats catalanes (URL i UAB) ha posat en evidència tant els innegables avantatges del nou dispositiu docent per a l’aprenentatge dels estudiants, així com les restriccions institucionals que actualment dificulten la seva gestió i difusió.

The type of K-ras mutation determines prognosis in colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Mutations involving the oncogene K-ras in colorectal cancer may be related to tumor aggressiveness. However, the value of K-ras gene determination as a prognostic marker has not been clearly established. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The results from 98 patients recruited in a prospective study analyzing the effect of a K-ras mutation as a prognostic factor in colorectal cancer are reported. RESULTS: Disease-free (P = 0.02) and overall survival (P = 0.03) were significantly reduced for patients harboring a K-ras mutation. Two specific mutations demonstrated a significantly increased risk of disease recurrence, namely, 12-TGT (P = 0.04) and 13-GAC substitutions (P = 0.002). Patients with either of these substitutions had a 2-year disease-free survival rate of 37% compared with that of 67% for the group of patients harboring any other mutation type or a wild-type status (P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The results herein presented suggest that K-ras acts as a prognostic factor in colorectal cancer and that this effect is probably related to a limited number of defined mutations.

Reduced ejection fraction after myocardial infarction: is it sufficient to justify implantation of a defibrillator?

BACKGROUND: Improved survival after prophylactic implantation of a defibrillator in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) after myocardial infarction (MI) has been demonstrated in patients who experienced remote MIs in the 1990s. The absolute survival benefit conferred by this recommended strategy must be related to the current risk of arrhythmic death, which is evolving. This study evaluates the mortality rate in survivors of MI with impaired left ventricular function and its relation to pre-hospital discharge baseline characteristics. METHODS: The clinical records of patients who had sustained an acute MI between 1999 and 2000 and had been discharged from the hospital with an EF of < or = 40% were included. Baseline characteristics, drug prescriptions, and invasive procedures were recorded. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed using a primary end point of total mortality. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-five patients were included. During a median follow-up period of 30 months (interquartile range, 22 to 36 months) 18 patients died. The 1-year and 2-year mortality rates were 6.7% and 8.6%, respectively. Variables reflecting coronary artery disease and its management (ie, prior MI, acute reperfusion, and complete revascularization) had a greater impact on mortality than variables reflecting mechanical dysfunction (ie, EF and Killip class). CONCLUSIONS: The mortality rate among survivors of MIs with reduced EF was substantially lower than that reported in the 1990s. The strong decrease in the arrhythmic risk implies a proportional increase in the number of patients needed to treat with a prophylactic defibrillator to prevent one adverse event. The risk of an event may even be sufficiently low to limit the detectable benefit of defibrillators in patients with the prognostic features identified in our study. This argues for additional risk stratification prior to the prophylactic implantation of a defibrillator.

Suivi du patient après transplantation cardiaque: monitoring et adaptation de l'immunosuppression [Monitoring and adjustment of immunosuppression after heart transplantation].

Heart transplantation remains the best therapeutic option for the treatment of end-stage heart failure. However, good survival rates can be obtained only if patients are closely monitored, particularly for their immunosuppressive regimens. Currently, a triple-drug regimen usually based on calcineurin-inhibitors (cyclosporin A or tacrolimus), anti-proliferative agents and steroids is used in most recipients. New agents such as the mTOR inhibitors, a more recently developed class of immunosuppressive drugs, can also be used in some patients. The aim of this article is to review currently used immunosuppressive regimens after heart transplantation, and to propose some individualized options depending on specific patient characteristics and recent pharmacological developments in the field.

Delayed otogenic hydrocephalus after acute otitis media in pediatric patients: the changing presentation of a serious otologic complication.

CONCLUSIONS: The clinical presentation of otogenic dural sinus thrombosis (DST) as a complication of acute otitis media (AOM) can be masked by antibiotic treatment. Morning episodes of vomiting and/or headache, visual impairment and a history of AOM seem to be indicative of otogenic hydrocephalus. We therefore advocate that the MRI scans of patients with similar symptoms should be carefully studied to facilitate the early diagnosis of a potentially life-threatening complication. OBJECTIVE: To describe the frequency, pathognomonic signs, clinical course and outcome of otogenic hydrocephalus and DST as complications of AOM in pediatric patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We undertook a retrospective chart review of all pediatric patients (age 1-14 years) treated for otitis media and its complications at an academic medical center between 1999 and 2003. The main outcome measures were otologic and ophthalmologic findings and CT and MRI scans at the beginning of treatment and 3 months later. RESULTS: We report on five cases with otogenic DST following AOM. All but one of them presented initially with diplopia caused by otogenic hydrocephalus. In four cases the otologic complaints had already disappeared by the time of MRI confirmation of the diagnosis. Only one child was referred with severe otologic symptoms. Management included systemic antibiotics, short-term heparin anticoagulation and surgical decompression. In our cases, even after intensive i.v. antibiotic treatment, only surgery led to a significant improvement in the clinical condition.

A comprehensive characterization of genome-wide copy number aberrations in colorectal cancer reveals novel oncogenes and patterns of alterations.

To develop a comprehensive overview of copy number aberrations (CNAs) in stage-II/III colorectal cancer (CRC), we characterized 302 tumors from the PETACC-3 clinical trial. Microsatellite-stable (MSS) samples (n = 269) had 66 minimal common CNA regions, with frequent gains on 20 q (72.5%), 7 (41.8%), 8 q (33.1%) and 13 q (51.0%) and losses on 18 (58.6%), 4 q (26%) and 21 q (21.6%). MSS tumors have significantly more CNAs than microsatellite-instable (MSI) tumors: within the MSI tumors a novel deletion of the tumor suppressor WWOX at 16 q23.1 was identified (p<0.01). Focal aberrations identified by the GISTIC method confirmed amplifications of oncogenes including EGFR, ERBB2, CCND1, MET, and MYC, and deletions of tumor suppressors including TP53, APC, and SMAD4, and gene expression was highly concordant with copy number aberration for these genes. Novel amplicons included putative oncogenes such as WNK1 and HNF4A, which also showed high concordance between copy number and expression. Survival analysis associated a specific patient segment featured by chromosome 20 q gains to an improved overall survival, which might be due to higher expression of genes such as EEF1B2 and PTK6. The CNA clustering also grouped tumors characterized by a poor prognosis BRAF-mutant-like signature derived from mRNA data from this cohort. We further revealed non-random correlation between CNAs among unlinked loci, including positive correlation between 20 q gain and 8 q gain, and 20 q gain and chromosome 18 loss, consistent with co-selection of these CNAs. These results reinforce the non-random nature of somatic CNAs in stage-II/III CRC and highlight loci and genes that may play an important role in driving the development and outcome of this disease.

Clinical characteristics and outcome of infective endocarditis involving implantable cardiac devices.

CONTEXT: Infection of implantable cardiac devices is an emerging disease with significant morbidity, mortality, and health care costs. OBJECTIVES: To describe the clinical characteristics and outcome of cardiac device infective endocarditis (CDIE) with attention to its health care association and to evaluate the association between device removal during index hospitalization and outcome. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: Prospective cohort study using data from the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study (ICE-PCS), conducted June 2000 through August 2006 in 61 centers in 28 countries. Patients were hospitalized adults with definite endocarditis as defined by modified Duke endocarditis criteria. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: In-hospital and 1-year mortality. RESULTS: CDIE was diagnosed in 177 (6.4% [95% CI, 5.5%-7.4%]) of a total cohort of 2760 patients with definite infective endocarditis. The clinical profile of CDIE included advanced patient age (median, 71.2 years [interquartile range, 59.8-77.6]); causation by staphylococci (62 [35.0% {95% CI, 28.0%-42.5%}] Staphylococcus aureus and 56 [31.6% {95% CI, 24.9%-39.0%}] coagulase-negative staphylococci); and a high prevalence of health care-associated infection (81 [45.8% {95% CI, 38.3%-53.4%}]). There was coexisting valve involvement in 66 (37.3% [95% CI, 30.2%-44.9%]) patients, predominantly tricuspid valve infection (43/177 [24.3%]), with associated higher mortality. In-hospital and 1-year mortality rates were 14.7% (26/177 [95% CI, 9.8%-20.8%]) and 23.2% (41/177 [95% CI, 17.2%-30.1%]), respectively. Proportional hazards regression analysis showed a survival benefit at 1 year for device removal during the initial hospitalization (28/141 patients [19.9%] who underwent device removal during the index hospitalization had died at 1 year, vs 13/34 [38.2%] who did not undergo device removal; hazard ratio, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.22-0.82]). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with CDIE, the rate of concomitant valve infection is high, as is mortality, particularly if there is valve involvement. Early device removal is associated with improved survival at 1 year.

Clinical characteristics, prognosis, and treatment of pelvic cryptorchid seminoma.

PURPOSE: To analyze the clinical characteristics, prognosis, and treatment outcome of pelvic cryptorchid seminoma (PCS), and to determine whether whole abdominal-pelvic irradiation for Stage I disease is necessary. METHODS AND MATERIALS: From 1958 to 1991, 60 patients with PCS were treated at the Cancer Hospital of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing. They presented with a lower abdominal mass and showed a predominance for the right side. A high proportion of patients with PCS [26 of 60 (43%)] had metastatic disease, compared to 20% of those with scrotal seminoma, and there was a tendency toward a higher frequency of pelvic nodal metastases. There were 34 Stage I, 6 Stage IIA, 11 Stage IIB, 5 Stage III, and 4 Stage IV patients. Of these 60 patients, 56 underwent laparotomy with or without cryptorchiectomy (37 radical orchiectomy, 7 partial orchiectomy, and 12 biopsy of the primary or cervical node), and 4 cervical node biopsy only. All patients were further treated with radiotherapy, chemotherapy, or a combination of both. Patients with Stage I and II disease received radiotherapy, whereas patients with Stage III and IV were treated with chemotherapy. RESULTS: The overall and disease-free survivals at 5 and 10 years were 92% and 87%, and 88% and 84%, respectively. The 5- and 10-year survivals were 100% for Stage I, 94% and 87% for Stage II, and 56% and 42% for Stage III/IV, respectively (p < 0.05). Volume of irradiation, i.e., whole abdominal-pelvic radiotherapy (10 patients), versus hockey-stick encompassing paraaortic, ipsilateral iliac nodes and the primary tumor or tumor bed (17) did not influence outcome in Stage I patients. Five patients relapsed within 2-12 years after treatment, and four of these patients were successfully salvaged. Four patients developed a second malignant tumor and died. CONCLUSION: Stage I and II PCS can be adequately controlled by radiotherapy regardless of the surgical procedure. Whole abdominal-pelvic irradiation for Stage I and IIA disease is not required, and fields can be limited to the paraaortic, ipsilateral iliac nodes and primary tumor or tumor bed. We recommend platinum-based chemotherapy for Stage IIB-IV PCS.

Virus infection speeds: theory versus experiment

In order to explain the speed of Vesicular Stomatitis Virus VSV infections, we develop a simple model that improves previous approaches to the propagation of virus infections. For VSV infections, we find that the delay time elapsed between the adsorption of a viral particle into a cell and the release of its progeny has a veryimportant effect. Moreover, this delay time makes the adsorption rate essentially irrelevant in order to predict VSV infection speeds. Numerical simulations are in agreement with the analytical results. Our model satisfactorily explains the experimentally measured speeds of VSV infections

Ki-67 MIB1 labelling index and the prognosis of primary TaT1 urothelial cell carcinoma of the bladder.

Aims: To evaluate whether ki-67 labelling index (LI) has independent prognostic value for survival of patients with bladder urothelial tumours graded according to the 2004 World Health Organisation classification. Methods: Ki-67 LI was evaluated in 164 cases using the grid counting method. Non-invasive (stage Ta) tumours were: papilloma (n = 5), papillary urothelial neoplasia of low malignant potential (PUNLMP; n = 26), and low (LG; n = 34) or high grade (HG; n = 15) papillary urothelial carcinoma. Early invasive (stage T1) tumours were: LG (n = 58) and HG (n = 26) carcinoma. Statistical analysis included Fisher and x2 tests, and mean comparisons by ANOVA and t test. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were performed according to the Kaplan–Meier method with log rank test and Cox’s proportional hazard method. Results: Mean ki-67 LI increased from papilloma to PUNLMP, LG, and HG in stage Ta (p,0.0001) and from LG to HG in stage T1 (p = 0.013) tumours. High tumour proliferation (.13%) was related to greater tumour size (p = 0.036), recurrence (p = 0.036), progression (p = 0.035), survival (p = 0.054), and high p53 accumulation (p = 0.015). Ki-67 LI and tumour size were independent predictors of disease free survival (DFS), but only ki-67 LI was related to progression free survival (PFS). Cancer specific overall survival (OS) was related to ki-67 LI, tumour size, and p27kip1 downregulation. Ki-67 LI was the main independent predictor of DFS (p = 0.0005), PFS (p = 0.0162), and cancer specific OS (p = 00195). Conclusion: Tumour proliferation measured by Ki-67 LI is related to tumour recurrence, stage progression, and is an independent predictor of DFS, PFS, and cancer specific OS in TaT1 bladder urothelial cell carcinoma.

Hypermethylated 14-3-3-sigma and ESR1 gene promoters in serum as candidate biomarkers for the diagnosis and treatment efficacy of breast cancer metastasis

Background: Numerous hypermethylated genes have been reported in breast cancer, and the silencing of these genes plays an important role in carcinogenesis, tumor progression and diagnosis. These hypermethylated promoters are very rarely found in normal breast. It has been suggested that aberrant hypermethylation may be useful as a biomarker, with implications for breast cancer etiology, diagnosis, and management. The relationship between primary neoplasm and metastasis remains largely unknown. There has been no comprehensive comparative study on the clinical usefulness of tumor-associated methylated DNA biomarkers in primary breast carcinoma and metastatic breast carcinoma. The objective of the present study was to investigate the association between clinical extension of breast cancer and methylation status of Estrogen Receptor1 (ESR1) and Stratifin (14-3-3-σ) gene promoters in disease-free and metastatic breast cancer patients. Methods: We studied two cohorts of patients: 77 patients treated for breast cancer with no signs of disease, and 34 patients with metastatic breast cancer. DNA was obtained from serum samples, and promoter methylation status was determined by using DNA bisulfite modification and quantitative methylation-specific PCR. Results: Serum levels of methylated gene promoter 14-3-3-σ significantly differed between Control and Metastatic Breast Cancer groups (P < 0.001), and between Disease-Free and Metastatic Breast Cancer groups (P < 0.001). The ratio of the 14-3-3-σ level before the first chemotherapy cycle to the level just before administration of the second chemotherapy cycle was defined as the Biomarker Response Ratio [BRR]. We calculated BRR values for the "continuous decline" and "rise-and-fall" groups. Subsequent ROC analysis showed a sensitivity of 75% (95% CI: 47.6 - 86.7) and a specificity of 66.7% (95% CI: 41.0 - 86.7) to discriminate between the groups for a cut-off level of BRR = 2.39. The area under the ROC curve (Z = 0.804 ± 0.074) indicates that this test is a good approach to post-treatment prognosis. Conclusions: The relationship of 14-3-3-σ with breast cancer metastasis and progression found in this study suggests a possible application of 14-3-3-σ as a biomarker to screen for metastasis and to follow up patients treated for metastatic breast cancer, monitoring their disease status and treatment response.

A prediction rule to identify low-risk patients with pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: A simple prognostic model could help identify patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of death and are candidates for outpatient treatment. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 retrospectively identified inpatients who had a discharge diagnosis of pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our rule to predict 30-day mortality using classification tree analysis and patient data routinely available at initial examination as potential predictor variables. We used data from a European prospective study to externally validate the rule among 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism. We determined mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across derivation and validation samples. RESULTS: Our final model consisted of 10 patient factors (age > or = 70 years; history of cancer, heart failure, chronic lung disease, chronic renal disease, and cerebrovascular disease; and clinical variables of pulse rate > or = 110 beats/min, systolic blood pressure < 100 mm Hg, altered mental status, and arterial oxygen saturation < 90%). Patients with none of these factors were defined as low risk. The 30-day mortality rates for low-risk patients were 0.6%, 1.5%, and 0% in the derivation, internal validation, and external validation samples, respectively. The rates of nonfatal adverse medical outcomes were less than 1% among low-risk patients across all study samples. CONCLUSIONS: This simple prediction rule accurately identifies patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of short-term mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Prospective validation of this rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid for outpatient treatment.

The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA

We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.