From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

Data mining techniques for identification of spectrally homogeneous areas using NDVI temporal profiles of soybean crop

The aim of this study was to group temporal profiles of 10-day composites NDVI product by similarity, which was obtained by the SPOT Vegetation sensor, for municipalities with high soybean production in the state of Paraná, Brazil, in the 2005/2006 cropping season. Data mining is a valuable tool that allows extracting knowledge from a database, identifying valid, new, potentially useful and understandable patterns. Therefore, it was used the methods for clusters generation by means of the algorithms K-Means, MAXVER and DBSCAN, implemented in the WEKA software package. Clusters were created based on the average temporal profiles of NDVI of the 277 municipalities with high soybean production in the state and the best results were found with the K-Means algorithm, grouping the municipalities into six clusters, considering the period from the beginning of October until the end of March, which is equivalent to the crop vegetative cycle. Half of the generated clusters presented spectro-temporal pattern, a characteristic of soybeans and were mostly under the soybean belt in the state of Paraná, which shows good results that were obtained with the proposed methodology as for identification of homogeneous areas. These results will be useful for the creation of regional soybean "masks" to estimate the planted area for this crop.

Mapping of use and occupation of the soil and irrigation water quality in the city of Salto do Lontra-Paraná, Brazil

The objective of this study consisted on mapping the use and soil occupation and evaluation of the quality of irrigation water used in Salto do Lontra, in the state of Paraná, Brazil. Images of the satellite SPOT-5 were used to perform the supervised classification of the Maximum Likelihood algorithm - MAXVER, and the water quality parameters analyzed were pH, EC, HCO3-, Cl-, PO4(3-), NO3-, turbidity, temperature and thermotolerant coliforms in two distinct rainfall periods. The water quality data were subjected to statistical analysis by the techniques of PCA and FA, to identify the most relevant variables in assessing the quality of irrigation water. The characterization of soil use and occupation by the classifier MAXVER allowed the identification of the following classes: crops, bare soil/stubble, forests and urban area. The PCA technique applied to irrigation water quality data explained 53.27% of the variation in water quality among the sampled points. Nitrate, thermotolerant coliforms, temperature, electrical conductivity and bicarbonate were the parameters that best explained the spatial variation of water quality.

Testing Futures Market Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation: Evidence from Futures and Options on RTS

This study investigates futures market efficiency and optimal hedge ratio estimation. First, cointegration between spot and futures prices is studied using Johansen method, with two different model specifications. If prices are found cointegrated, restrictions on cointegrating vector and adjustment coefficients are imposed, to account for unbiasedness, weak exogeneity and prediction hypothesis. Second, optimal hedge ratios are estimated using static OLS, and time-varying DVEC and CCC models. In-sample and out-of-sample results for one, two and five period ahead are reported. The futures used in thesis are RTS index, EUR/RUB exchange rate and Brent oil, traded in Futures and options on RTS.(FORTS) For in-sample period, data points were acquired from start of trading of each futures contract, RTS index from August 2005, EUR/RUB exchange rate March 2009 and Brent oil October 2008, lasting till end of May 2011. Out-of-sample period covers start of June 2011, till end of December 2011. Our results indicate that all three asset pairs, spot and futures, are cointegrated. We found RTS index futures to be unbiased predictor of spot price, mixed evidence for exchange rate, and for Brent oil futures unbiasedness was not supported. Weak exogeneity results for all pairs indicated spot price to lead in price discovery process. Prediction hypothesis, unbiasedness and weak exogeneity of futures, was rejected for all asset pairs. Variance reduction results varied between assets, in-sample in range of 40-85 percent and out-of sample in range of 40-96 percent. Differences between models were found small, except for Brent oil in which OLS clearly dominated. Out-of-sample results indicated exceptionally high variance reduction for RTS index, approximately 95 percent.

Cirurgia do hiperparatireoidismo

Hyperparathyroidism is a desease caused by increase of parathormone secretion, leading to a misfunction of calcium metabolism. Although not very common among population in general, it is frequently observed in patients with cronic renal disease. It can involve a slight syntomatic form, but as a whole, its main repercurssions occur in skeletic muscles, urinary and intestinal systems. The authors conduct a broad revision of the literature, focusing on the methods of diagnosis and spot checking before and during the operations of parathyroid glands. Surgical recommendations, tatic aspects and types of surgery to be implemented are discussed. A systematization for adequate surgical technics performed at the General Surgery Service of Clementino Fraga Filho Hospital of Federal University of Rio de Janeiro is fully discribed and recommended.

Developing a non-public research software for public use

EasyLEED is a program designed for the extraction of intensity-energy spectra from low-energy electron diffraction patterns. It can be used to get information about the position of individual atoms on a surface of some substance. The goal of this thesis is to make easyLEED useful in LEED-research. It is achieved by adding new features, i.e. plotting intensity-energy spectra, setting tracking parameters and allowing exporting and importing of settings and spot location data, to the program. The detailed description of these added features and how they’re done and how they impact on the usefulness of the program in research are presented in this thesis. Improving the calculational part of the program is not discussed.

Eri laskentamenetelmien vertailu hitsatun rakenteen väsymislaskennassa

Tässä työssä tutkittiin eri mitoitusmenetelmien soveltuvuutta hitsattujen rakenteiden vä-symislaskennassa. Käytetyt menetelmät olivat rakenteellinen jännityksen menetelmä, te-hollisen lovijännityksen menetelmä ja murtumismekaniikka. Lisäksi rakenteellisen jänni-tyksen määrittämiseksi käytettiin kolmea eri menetelmää. Menetelmät olivat pintaa pitkin ekstrapolointi, paksuuden yli linearisointi ja Dongin menetelmä. Väsymiskestävyys määritettiin kahdelle hitsiliitoksen yksityiskohdalle. Laskenta tehtiin käyttäen elementtimenetelmää rakenteen 3D-mallille. Tutkittavasta aggregaattirungosta oli olemassa FE-malli mutta alimallinnustekniikkaa hyödyntämällä pystyttiin yksityiskohtai-semmin tutkimaan vain pientä osaa koko rungon mallista. Rakenteellisen jännityksen menetelmä perustuu nimellisiin jännityksiin. Kyseinen mene-telmä ei vaadi geometrian muokkausta. Yleensä rakenteellisen jännityksen menetelmää käytetään hitsin rajaviivan väsymislaskennassa, mutta joissain tapauksissa sitä on käytetty juuren puolen laskennassa. Tässä työssä rakenteellisen jännityksen menetelmää käytettiin myös juuren puolen tutkimisessa. Tehollista lovijännitystä tutkitaan mallintamalla 1 mm fiktiiviset pyöristykset sekä rajaviivalle että juuren puolelle. Murtumismekaniikan so-veltuvuutta tutkittiin käyttämällä Franc2D särön kasvun simulointiohjelmaa. Väsymislaskennan tulokset eivät merkittävästi poikkea eri laskentamenetelmien välillä. Ainoastaan rakenteellisen jännityksen Dongin menetelmällä saadaan poikkeavia tuloksia. Tämä johtuu pääasiassa siitä, että menetelmän laskentaetäisyydestä ei ole tietoa. Raken-teellisen jännityksen menetelmällä, tehollisen lovijännityksen menetelmällä ja murtumis-mekaniikalla saadaan samansuuntaiset tulokset. Suurin ero menetelmien välillä on mal-linnuksen ja laskennan vaatima työmäärä.

Kuormanohjauksen vaikutus kaksion sähkönkulutuskäyrään

Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli selvittää millainen kaksion sähkönkulutuskäyrä on ja mistä kuormista se koostuu. Tarkoituksena oli myös tutkia miten kuormansiirrot vaikuttavat sähkönkulutuskäyrään ja onko kuormansiirroissa säästöpotentiaalia ajatellen asiakkaan sähkökustannuksia. Säästöpotentiaalia laskettaessa oletettiin, että asiakkaalla on sähkösopimus, jonka hinta seuraa sähköpörssin (Nord Pool) spot-hintoja. Tutkimustuloksista nähdään, että asunnon pohjakuorma aiheutuu kylmälaitteista ja suuret sähkön kulutuspiikit aiheutuvat liedestä, astianpesukoneesta ja pyykinpesukoneesta. Kuormansiirtojen vaikutus normaaliin sähkönkulutus käyrään on se, että suurten kuormien aiheuttamat kulutuspiikit siirtyivät myöhemmäksi iltaan. Laskelmissa selvisi, että kuormansiirto ei tuo asiakkaalle merkittäviä säästöjä, koska säästöjen saanti edellyttäisi pidempiä mittausjaksoja sekä päivittäisiä suuria hinnanvaihteluita sähkön spot-hinnoissa. Tutkittiin myös millaisia kylmälaitteiden kulutuskäyrät ovat ja miten pysäytykset ja uudelleenkäynnistyksen vaikuttavat niihin.

Etäluentamittareiden tuomat tuotteistamismahdollisuudet sähkönmyyjille

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli selvittää etäluentamittareiden mahdollistamia tuotteita ja palveluita sekä niiden toteutettavuutta Mäntsälän Sähkö Oy:ssä. Työssä perehdytään yksityisasiakkaille suunnattuihin palveluihin, joita mittaritekniikka mahdollistaa. Mittarit tulee olla asennettuna 80%:lle verkkoyhtiön sähkönkäyttöpaikoista vuoteen 2014 mennessä. Mäntsälän Sähköllä mittareiden vaihtoprojektin alkamisen vuoksi haluttiin selvittää mahdollisten uusien tuotteiden toteutettavuutta. Työssä esitellään Mäntsälän Sähkö Oy:lle tulevan mittarijärjestelmän. Mittarijärjestelmä käyttää eri tietoliikennetapoja, jotka ovat GPRS, RS485 ja radio. Työ sisältää internet-paneelina suoritetun asiakaskyselyn, jossa selvitettiin asiakkaiden tarpeita ja mielipiteitä mahdollisten uusien tuotteiden osalta. Työssä käsiteltäviä tuotteita ovat kuormanohjaus, kysynnän hintajousto, spot-hinnoittelu, laskutus sekä raportointipalvelu. Kulutuksen hintajousto, kuormanohjaus ja spot-hinnoittelu toimivat toisiaan tukevina tuotteina. Tasasuuruista laskutusta voisi tarjota toteutuneen kulutuksen mukaisen laskutuksen ohessa lisäpalveluna. Raportointipalvelu internetissä on hyvä tapa toimittaa asiakkaalle lain velvoittamat tiedot.

The sources of complementary competitive advantages for systems’ manufacturers in the aircraft modernization market

Being a top of high technology industries, the aerospace represents one of the most complex fields of study. While the competitiveness of aircraft systems’ manufacturers attracts a significant number of researchers, some of the issues remain to be a blank spot. One of those is the after-sale modernization. The master thesis investigates how this concept is related to the theory of competitive advantages. Finding the routes in the framework of complex technological systems’ lifecycle, the key drivers of the aircraft modernization market are revealed. The competitive positioning of players is defined through multiple case studies in a form of several in-depth interviews. The key result of the research is the conclusion that modernization should be considered as an inherent component of strategy of any aircraft systems’ manufacturer, while the master thesis aims to support managerial decision making.

Laser-TIG hybrid welding process

Joining processes and techniques need to meet the trend of new applications and the development of new materials. The application in connection with thick and thin plates in industrial fields is wide and the joining technology is in very urgent need. The laser-TIG hybrid welding technology can play the respective advantages of both of them. One major advantage of the hybrid laser-TIG welding technology is its efficient use of laser energy. Additionally, it can develop into a high and new advanced welding technology and become a hot spot in both the application and research area. This thesis investigated laser –TIG hybrid welding with the aim of enlightening the reader on its advantages, disadvantages and future areas of improvement. The main objective is to investigate laser-TIG hybrid on the welding of various metals (steels, magnesium, aluminium etc.). In addition, it elaborates on various possible combinations on hybrid laser-TIG welding technology and their benefits. The possibility of using laser-TIG hybrid in welding of thick materials was investigated. The method applied in carrying out this research is by using literature review. The results showed that hybrid laser-TIG is applicable to almost all weldable metals. Also it proves to be effective in welding refractive metals. The possibility of welding with or without filler materials is of economic advantage especially in welding of materials with no filler material. Thick plate’s hybrid laser-TIG welding is showing great prospects although it normally finds its used in welding thin materials in the range of 0.4 to 0.8 mm. The findings show that laser-TIG hybrid welding can be a versatile welding process and therefore will be increasingly used industrially due to its numerous advantages and the development of new TIG arc that enhances its capabilities.

Eficácia do fipronil em cães infestados com diferentes cargas parasitárias de Ctenocephalides felis felis (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae)

O objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar através de teste in vivo, a eficácia e o período residual de proteção do fipronil 10% "top spot" em cães infestados com diferentes cargas parasitárias de Ctenocephalides felis felis. Foram utilizados 24 cães da raça Beagle, compondo seis animais por grupo. Os cães foram divididos em quatro grupos. Os cães dos grupos controles I e II não receberam tratamento, enquanto que os cães dos grupos tratados I e II receberam tratamento com formulação de fipronil 10% "top spot". Os cães dos grupos controle I e tratado I foram infestados com 100 pulgas adultas não alimentadas, e os cães dos grupos controle II e tratado II foram infestados com 300 pulgas adultas não alimentadas. As infestações foram realizadas nos dias, -2, +5, +12, +19, +26, +33 e +40 e nos dias +2, +7, +14, +21, +28, +35 e +42 foi realizada retirada mecânica e contagem de pulgas para avaliação. As eficácias pulguicidas, para o grupo tratado I, nos dias +2, +7, +14, +21, +28, +35 e +42, foram respectivamente 99,36%; 99,73%; 99,48%; 99,74%; 99,75%; 95,06% e 67,62%. As eficácias pulguicidas, para o grupo tratado II, avaliadas nos mesmos dias, foram respectivamente 100%; 100%; 100%; 100%; 99,91%; 95,60% e 68,55%. O fipronil mostrou-se eficaz na eliminação das pulgas em cães até o dia +35. A análise estatística comparativa entre as médias de pulgas vivas, entre os grupos controle I e tratado I, demonstrou que ocorreu diferença significativa (p≤0,05) para os desafios em todos os dias experimentais, após o tratamento. Os grupos controle II e tratado II também apresentaram diferença significativa (p≤0,05) para os desafios em todos os dias experimentais, após o tratamento. A análise estatística entre os grupos tratados I e II demonstrou que não ocorreu diferença significativa (p≥0,05) para os desafios em todos os dias experimentais. O desafio foi encerrado no dia +42 já que a eficácia do fipronil nos grupos tratados I e II foram inferiores 70%. O produto em teste mostrou-se eficaz na eliminação das pulgas em cães até o dia + 35, não apresentando mais efeito residual de proteção quando os animais foram reinfestados. Não houve diferença significativa nos níveis de eficácia entre os grupos infestados com 100 e 300 exemplares adultos de C. felis felis ao longo do período experimental.

Effect of Lactobacillus sp. isolates supernatant on Escherichia coli O157:H7 enhances the role of organic acids production as a factor for pathogen control

Many attempts have been made to establish the control of foodborne pathogens through Lactobacillus isolates and their metabolism products with success being obtained in several situations. The aim of this study was to investigate the antagonistic effect of eight Lactobacillusisolates, including L. caseisubsp. pseudoplantarum,L. plantarum, L. reuteri and L. delbrueckii subsp. delbrueckii, on the pathogenic Escherichia colistrain O157:H7. The inhibitory effect of pure cultures and two pooled cultures supernatants of Lactobacillus on the growth of pathogenic bacteria was evaluated by the spot agar method and by monitoring turbidity. Antimicrobial activity was confirmed for L. reuteri and L. delbrueckii subsp. delbrueckii and for a pool of lactic acid bacteria. The neutralized supernatant of the pool exerted a higher antimicrobial activity than that of the individual strains. Furthermore, D-lactic acid and acetic acid were produced during growth of the Lactobacillus isolates studied.

Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

Turveperävaunun väsymiskestävyyden parantaminen

Työssä tutkittiin turveperävaunun renkaan kiinnitysrakenteen väsymiskestävyyttä. Väsymiskestävyyden parantamiseksi renkaiden kiinnityskohdan muotoilu ja mitoitus suunniteltiin uudelleen. Suunnittelussa keskityttiin ensisijaisesti nimellisten ja rakenteellisten jännitysheilahdusten pienentämiseen. Sekä vanhan, että uuden rakenneratkaisun väsymiskestoikiä tarkasteltiin käyttämällä hot spot – menetelmää.