The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

The PHD: A Planar, Harmonic Drive Robot for Joint Torque Control

This thesis details the development of a model of a seven degree of freedom manipulator for position control. Then, it goes on to discuss the design and construction of a the PHD, a robot built to serve two purposes: first, to perform research on joint torque control schemes, and second, to determine the important dynamic characteristics of the Harmonic Drive. The PHD, is a planar, three degree of freedom arm with torque sensors integral to each joint. Preliminary testing has shown that a simple linear spring model of the Harmonic Drive's flexibility is suitable in many situations.

Virtual Model Control of a Hexapod Walking Robot

Since robots are typically designed with an individual actuator at each joint, the control of these systems is often difficult and non-intuitive. This thesis explains a more intuitive control scheme called Virtual Model Control. This thesis also demonstrates the simplicity and ease of this control method by using it to control a simulated walking hexapod. Virtual Model Control uses imagined mechanical components to create virtual forces, which are applied through the joint torques of real actuators. This method produces a straightforward means of controlling joint torques to produce a desired robot behavior. Due to the intuitive nature of this control scheme, the design of a virtual model controller is similar to the design of a controller with basic mechanical components. The ease of this control scheme facilitates the use of a high level control system which can be used above the low level virtual model controllers to modulate the parameters of the imaginary mechanical components. In order to apply Virtual Model Control to parallel mechanisms, a solution to the force distribution problem is required. This thesis uses an extension of Gardner`s Partitioned Force Control method which allows for the specification of constrained degrees of freedom. This virtual model control technique was applied to a simulated hexapod robot. Although the hexapod is a highly non-linear, parallel mechanism, the virtual models allowed text-book control solutions to be used while the robot was walking. Using a simple linear control law, the robot walked while simultaneously balancing a pendulum and tracking an object.

Statistical treatment of grain-size curves and empirical distributions: densities as compositions?

The preceding two editions of CoDaWork included talks on the possible consideration of densities as infinite compositions: Egozcue and D´ıaz-Barrero (2003) extended the Euclidean structure of the simplex to a Hilbert space structure of the set of densities within a bounded interval, and van den Boogaart (2005) generalized this to the set of densities bounded by an arbitrary reference density. From the many variations of the Hilbert structures available, we work with three cases. For bounded variables, a basis derived from Legendre polynomials is used. For variables with a lower bound, we standardize them with respect to an exponential distribution and express their densities as coordinates in a basis derived from Laguerre polynomials. Finally, for unbounded variables, a normal distribution is used as reference, and coordinates are obtained with respect to a Hermite-polynomials-based basis. To get the coordinates, several approaches can be considered. A numerical accuracy problem occurs if one estimates the coordinates directly by using discretized scalar products. Thus we propose to use a weighted linear regression approach, where all k- order polynomials are used as predictand variables and weights are proportional to the reference density. Finally, for the case of 2-order Hermite polinomials (normal reference) and 1-order Laguerre polinomials (exponential), one can also derive the coordinates from their relationships to the classical mean and variance. Apart of these theoretical issues, this contribution focuses on the application of this theory to two main problems in sedimentary geology: the comparison of several grain size distributions, and the comparison among different rocks of the empirical distribution of a property measured on a batch of individual grains from the same rock or sediment, like their composition

Correlación SO2/FiO2 con PaO2/FiO2 en niños en ventilación mecánica a grandes alturas : estudio multicéntrico

Cambios en la PaO2 se correlacionan de manera positiva con cambios en la SO2 permitiendo determinar la severidad de la hipoxemia. La búsqueda de un predictor que de forma no invasiva detecte pacientes con mayor compromiso pulmonar ha ganando auge; estableciendo los grados de hipoxemia moderada o severa como criterios para LPA y SDRA, a partir de los valores de PaO2/FiO2 y su correlación con la SO2/FiO2. No se conocen los valores de SO2/FiO2 que a más de 2500msnm permitan identificar la severidad de la hipoxemia en pediatría. Metodología: estudio de correlación y predicción en pacientes de un mes a 18 años de edad admitidos a UCIP, con soporte ventilatorio mecánico y análisis de gases arteriales seriados en dos Hospitales de referencia. Análisis de relación lineal y determinación de la correlación SOFiO2 y PaFiO2 a partir de 430 mediciones. Resultados: el estudio mostro una media para PaO2/FiO2 de 192,12 (DS+75,62) y para SO2/FiO2 de 208,61 (DS+62,79). La correlación SO2/FiO2 y Pa/FiO2 fue positiva y moderada-alta (r= 0,702;p<0.01). A partir de la regresión lineal entre las variables se obtuvo la ecuación de determinación PaO2/FiO2 = (0.92xSO2/FIO2) - 12, con sensibilidad y especificidad de 76% para detectar hipoxemia severa (SO2/FiO2<231), y sensibilidad de 74% y especificidad de 71% para hipoxemia moderada (SO2/FiO2<340). Discusión: los hallazgos obtenidos son muy útiles desde el punto de vista clínico para detectar rápidamente pacientes con hipoxemia moderada y severa, con riesgo potencial de deterioro, cuando no se dispone de línea arterial ó gases arteriales.

Modelo de gestión de la red de distribución tercerizada segmento tiendas región central, en productos de consumo masivo, mediante datos de panel y simulación de Monte Carlo.

El proyecto de investigación parte de la dinámica del modelo de distribución tercerizada para una compañía de consumo masivo en Colombia, especializada en lácteos, que para este estudio se ha denominado “Lactosa”. Mediante datos de panel con estudio de caso, se construyen dos modelos de demanda por categoría de producto y distribuidor y mediante simulación estocástica, se identifican las variables relevantes que inciden sus estructuras de costos. El problema se modela a partir del estado de resultados por cada uno de los cuatro distribuidores analizados en la región central del país. Se analiza la estructura de costos y el comportamiento de ventas dado un margen (%) de distribución logístico, en función de las variables independientes relevantes, y referidas al negocio, al mercado y al entorno macroeconómico, descritas en el objeto de estudio. Entre otros hallazgos, se destacan brechas notorias en los costos de distribución y costos en la fuerza de ventas, pese a la homogeneidad de segmentos. Identifica generadores de valor y costos de mayor dispersión individual y sugiere uniones estratégicas de algunos grupos de distribuidores. La modelación con datos de panel, identifica las variables relevantes de gestión que inciden sobre el volumen de ventas por categoría y distribuidor, que focaliza los esfuerzos de la dirección. Se recomienda disminuir brechas y promover desde el productor estrategias focalizadas a la estandarización de procesos internos de los distribuidores; promover y replicar los modelos de análisis, sin pretender remplazar conocimiento de expertos. La construcción de escenarios fortalece de manera conjunta y segura la posición competitiva de la compañía y sus distribuidores.

Modelo estadístico de correlación de resultados examen Saber 11 (ICFES) y Saber Pro (ECAES)

Modelo metodológico para el desarrollo de un estudio científico dentro de la Escuela de Administración de la Universidad del Rosario que permita desarrollar estrategias de mejoramiento en las políticas de admisión y estructuración pedagógica del programa de Administración de Empresas.

A prediction model for establishing the disability degree in adults with spinal cord injury: results based on WHO-DAS II perspective

Objective: To establish a prediction model of the degree of disability in adults with Spinal CordInjury (SCI ) based on the use of the WHO-DAS II . Methods: The disability degree was correlatedwith three variable groups: clinical, sociodemographic and those related with rehabilitation services.A model of multiple linear regression was built to predict disability. 45 people with sci exhibitingdiverse etiology, neurological level and completeness participated. Patients were older than 18 andthey had more than a six-month post-injury. The WHO-DAS II and the ASIA impairment scale(AIS ) were used. Results: Variables that evidenced a significant relationship with disability were thefollowing: occupational situation, type of affiliation to the public health care system, injury evolutiontime, neurological level, partial preservation zone, ais motor and sensory scores and number ofclinical complications during the last year. Complications significantly associated to disability werejoint pain, urinary infections, intestinal problems and autonomic disreflexia. None of the variablesrelated to rehabilitation services showed significant association with disability. The disability degreeexhibited significant differences in favor of the groups that received the following services: assistivedevices supply and vocational, job or educational counseling. Conclusions: The best predictiondisability model in adults with sci with more than six months post-injury was built with variablesof injury evolution time, AIS sensory score and injury-related unemployment.

Option pricing in market models driven by telegraph processes with jumps

Esta tesis está dividida en dos partes: en la primera parte se presentan y estudian los procesos telegráficos, los procesos de Poisson con compensador telegráfico y los procesos telegráficos con saltos. El estudio presentado en esta primera parte incluye el cálculo de las distribuciones de cada proceso, las medias y varianzas, así como las funciones generadoras de momentos entre otras propiedades. Utilizando estas propiedades en la segunda parte se estudian los modelos de valoración de opciones basados en procesos telegráficos con saltos. En esta parte se da una descripción de cómo calcular las medidas neutrales al riesgo, se encuentra la condición de no arbitraje en este tipo de modelos y por último se calcula el precio de las opciones Europeas de compra y venta.

Aislamiento de venas pulmonares en el Centro Internacional de Arritmias ‘Andrea Natale’ - Fundación Cardio infantil

Introducción: El Aislamiento de Venas Pulmonares (AVP) es un procedimiento de alto costo al cual son sometidos pacientes con riesgo cardiovascular elevado. Requiere un alto grado de especialización en el personal médico y paramédico que lo ejecuta, con curvas de aprendizaje que sobrepasan los dos años de formación académica y entrenamiento específico. Metodología: Se realizó un estudio de cohorte retrospectivo, donde se incluyeron 88 sujetos sometidos al procedimiento en el lapso comprendido entre el 1º de enero y el 31 de diciembre de 2013, con el objetivo de evaluar su proceso de atención en el Centro Internacional de Arritmias ‘Andrea Natale’ de la FCI – Instituto de Cardiología. Se realizó análisis de regresión lineal y logística múltiple. Resultados: Se encontró que en el 97,73%% de los pacientes el diagnóstico principal era algún tipo de Fibrilación Auricular (FA); a su vez, la comorbilidad más frecuente fue HTA en el 30,68% y ningún paciente presentaba enfermedad coronaria, no hubo diferencias significativas por sexo. La complicación peri operatoria tuvo una incidencia del 3,41%, el 22,73% requirió ingreso a UCI con un promedio de días estancia 0,25+0,51. El 98,86% de la población estudiada recibió educación pos procedimiento acerca de sus cuidados y signos de alarma. Los factores encontrados en el estudio que afectan la duración del procedimiento y la estancia hospitalaria son las interconsultas pre procedimiento, el manejo médico de la cardiomiopatía de base y el uso de anti agregantes plaquetarios pre procedimiento; los cuales, son puntos por mejorar previo al ingreso o programación del paciente para ser llevado a AVP. Discusión: Como recomendaciones específicas se destacan: La necesidad de incluir en el protocolo de preparación para ablación de venas pulmonares la realización de interconsultas a las especialidades requeridas, antes de su ingreso para la realización del procedimiento. Es importante que el paciente que lo amerite haga parte de un programa de falla cardiaca previamente al procedimiento

Protección miocárdica con custodiol y trastornos de la osmolalidad

En análisis retrospectivo evaluamos 91 pacientes llevados a cirugía cardiaca entre 2013 y 2014 en la Fundación Cardioinfantil, en quienes se administro Custodiol, analizando los niveles de sodio y osmolalidad plasmática efectiva antes, durante y después del procedimiento quirúrgico. Nosotros evaluamos la relación entre administración de Custodiol y cambios en el sodio y osmolalidad plasmática del paciente llevado a cirugía cardiaca.

La diplomacia cultural como herramienta para el mejoramiento de la relación económica de Colombia con Corea del Sur y Australia

Esta investigación se preocupa por dilucidar la función de la diplomacia cultural como herramienta para mejorar la relación económica de Colombia con Corea del Sur y Australia. Así, se analiza a la diplomacia cultural y lo que hace Colombia en esta materia en ambos países; así como el estado de la relación económica de Colombia en un periodo de ocho años con dichos países, y cómo las acciones culturales colombianas podrían llegar a mejorar dicha relación económica. De esta manera además del desarrollo conceptual de diplomacia cultural y los indicadores económicos, a saber; exportaciones; Inversión Extranjera Directa y turismo; se corrió un modelo de regresión lineal para saber si efectivamente hay relación entre ambas variables y una contribución final que consiste en una propuesta de generación de indicadores de gestión a utilizarse al momento de implementar la diplomacia cultural como herramienta en política exterior.

A influência da competência emocional no desempenho académico de adolescentes do ensino secundário

O nosso trabalho tem como objectivo principal responder à questão fundamental: A competência emocional influencia o desempenho académico em adolescentes do ensino secundário? Para o efeito, os instrumentos utilizados foram: o questionário de Competência Emocional, adaptado ao contexto português por Lima Santos e Faria (2001), as pautas de notas dos alunos tendo em vista identificar o género, ano escolar e as idades dos alunos. Depois de obtida a autorização para a utilização do questionário, procedemos à sua aplicação sendo que a amostra foi constituída por 191 estudantes a frequentar o Ensino Secundário na Escola Secundária Dr. João de Araújo Correia, com idades compreendidas entre os 14 e 19 anos, no início do ano letivo, setembro de 2011. Após a recolha de dados procedemos à sua análise, a partir do programa SPSS, versão 19.0 para o Windows, cingindo-nos à análise descritiva das variáveis Género, Idade e Ano Escolar; análise descritiva da turma; análise descritiva das notas da disciplina de português e matemática; análise descritiva das questões do questionário de competência emocional; análise descritiva das dimensões do questionário; comparação de Médias das três Dimensões do questionário de competência emocional; análise de Regressão Linear e análise de Médias Através dos Itens e Variáveis Sociodemográficas e Escolares. Os resultados apontaram para a existência de diferenças estatisticamente significativas em relação à nota de Português no que diz respeito à EE (Expressão Emocional). Os alunos cujas notas de português são mais baixas apresentam valores mais baixos também na EE. Por outro lado, a nota de matemática era a única preditora da EE, explicando 4.3% da variância. Assim, a relação entre competência emocional e o desempenho académico verificou-se em relação à dimensão da Expressão Emocional. Por outro lado, em função do género, idade e escolaridade apenas se verificaram diferenças significativas para os itens da Expressão Emocional. Na relação entre o desempenho académico relativamente às disciplinas de português e matemática, comparativamente com a competência emocional apenas se verificou relação na dimensão - Expressão Emocional.

Conflito Trabalho-Família/Família-Trabalho e Capital Psicológico Positivo em Professores

Este estudo teve três grandes objetivos. Por um lado procurámos conhecer a prevalência do conflito trabalho-família e os níveis de capital psicológico positivo em professores; por outro, foi nosso intuito analisar a relação existente na perceção do conflito trabalho-família e os seus reflexos no capital psicológico individual; por fim, quisemos compreender a influência de algumas variáveis sociodemográficas nos dois constructos em estudo. Voluntariamente participaram nesta investigação 231 professores do ensino público e privado, aos quais foi aplicado o Questionário CTF_CP, composto por um conjunto de questões de caracterização sociodemográfica, pela escala S.W.I.N.G. (para avaliação do conflito trabalho-família) e pelo PsyCap Questionnaire (para determinação do capital psicológico positivo). No geral estes profissionais apresentaram níveis moderados de conflito trabalho-família negativo e de conflito família-trabalho-família positivo, assim como níveis moderados de autoeficácia, de resiliência e de capital psicológico positivo. Relativamente às variáveis sociodemográficas verificou-se que o conflito trabalho-família e família-trabalho negativo é significativamente mais elevado nos professores do ensino público, enquanto o conflito família-trabalho-família positivo é mais elevado nos professores do ensino privado. Verificou-se também que é o sexo feminino quem apresenta maiores índices de conflito trabalho-família negativo. Através da regressão linear constatou-se que as três dimensões do conflito trabalho-família estudadas explicam 24,3% da variação obtida no capital psicológico positivo dos inquiridos.

Neurobehavioral Development in Children With Potential Exposure to Pesticides

Children may be at higher risk than adults from pesticide exposure, due to their rapidly developing physiology, unique behavioral patterns, and interactions with the physical environment. This preliminary study conducted in Ecuador examines the association between household and environmental risk factors for pesticide exposure and neurobehavioral development. We collected data over 6 months in the rural highland region of Cayambe, Ecuador (2003–2004). Children age 24–61 months residing in 3 communities were assessed with the Ages and Stages Questionnaire and the Visual Motor Integration Test. We gathered information on maternal health and work characteristics, the home and community environment, and child characteristics. Growth measurements and a hemoglobin finger-prick blood test were obtained. Multiple linear regression analyses were conducted. Current maternal employment in the flower industry was associated with better developmental scores. Longer hours playing outdoors were associated with lower gross and fine motor and problem solving skills. Children who played with irrigation water scored lower on fine motor skills (8% decrease; 95% confidence interval 9.31 to 0.53), problem-solving skills (7% decrease; 8.40 to 0.39), and Visual Motor Integration test scores (3% decrease; 12.00 to 1.08). These results suggest that certain environmental risk factors for exposure to pesticides may affect child development, with contact with irrigation water of particular concern. However, the relationships between these risk factors and social characteristics are complex, as corporate agriculture may increase risk through pesticide exposure and environmental contamination, while indirectly promoting healthy development by providing health care, relatively higher salaries, and daycare options.