Components of productivity growth in Finnish agriculture

The objective was to measure productivity growth and its components in Finnish agriculture, especially in dairy farming. The objective was also to compare different methods and models - both parametric (stochastic frontier analysis) and non-parametric (data envelopment analysis) - in estimating the components of productivity growth and the sensitivity of results with respect to different approaches. The parametric approach was also applied in the investigation of various aspects of heterogeneity. A common feature of the first three of five articles is that they concentrate empirically on technical change, technical efficiency change and the scale effect, mainly on the basis of the decompositions of Malmquist productivity index. The last two articles explore an intermediate route between the Fisher and Malmquist productivity indices and develop a detailed but meaningful decomposition for the Fisher index, including also empirical applications. Distance functions play a central role in the decomposition of Malmquist and Fisher productivity indices. Three panel data sets from 1990s have been applied in the study. The common feature of all data used is that they cover the periods before and after Finnish EU accession. Another common feature is that the analysis mainly concentrates on dairy farms or their roughage production systems. Productivity growth on Finnish dairy farms was relatively slow in the 1990s: approximately one percent per year, independent of the method used. Despite considerable annual variation, productivity growth seems to have accelerated towards the end of the period. There was a slowdown in the mid-1990s at the time of EU accession. No clear immediate effects of EU accession with respect to technical efficiency could be observed. Technical change has been the main contributor to productivity growth on dairy farms. However, average technical efficiency often showed a declining trend, meaning that the deviations from the best practice frontier are increasing over time. This suggests different paths of adjustment at the farm level. However, different methods to some extent provide different results, especially for the sub-components of productivity growth. In most analyses on dairy farms the scale effect on productivity growth was minor. A positive scale effect would be important for improving the competitiveness of Finnish agriculture through increasing farm size. This small effect may also be related to the structure of agriculture and to the allocation of investments to specific groups of farms during the research period. The result may also indicate that the utilization of scale economies faces special constraints in Finnish conditions. However, the analysis of a sample of all types of farms suggested a more considerable scale effect than the analysis on dairy farms.

A dynamic programming model for optimising feeding and slaughter decisions regarding fattening pigs

Costs of purchasing new piglets and of feeding them until slaughter are the main variable expenditures in pig fattening. They both depend on slaughter intensity, the nature of feeding patterns and the technological constraints of pig fattening, such as genotype. Therefore, it is of interest to examine the effect of production technology and changes in input and output prices on feeding and slaughter decisions. This study examines the problem by using a dynamic programming model that links genetic characteristics of a pig to feeding decisions and the timing of slaughter and takes into account how these jointly affect the quality-adjusted value of a carcass. The model simulates the growth mechanism of a pig under optional feeding and slaughter patterns and then solves the optimal feeding and slaughter decisions recursively. The state of nature and the genotype of a pig are known in the analysis. The main contribution of this study is the dynamic approach that explicitly takes into account carcass quality while simultaneously optimising feeding and slaughter decisions. The method maximises the internal rate of return to the capacity unit. Hence, the results can have vital impact on competitiveness of pig production, which is known to be quite capital-intensive. The results suggest that producer can significantly benefit from improvements in the pig's genotype, because they improve efficiency of pig production. The annual benefits from obtaining pigs of improved genotype can be more than €20 per capacity unit. The annual net benefits of animal breeding to pig farms can also be considerable. Animals of improved genotype can reach optimal slaughter maturity quicker and produce leaner meat than animals of poor genotype. In order to fully utilise the benefits of animal breeding, the producer must adjust feeding and slaughter patterns on the basis of genotype. The results suggest that the producer can benefit from flexible feeding technology. The flexible feeding technology segregates pigs into groups according to their weight, carcass leanness, genotype and sex and thereafter optimises feeding and slaughter decisions separately for these groups. Typically, such a technology provides incentives to feed piglets with protein-rich feed such that the genetic potential to produce leaner meat is fully utilised. When the pig approaches slaughter maturity, the share of protein-rich feed in the diet gradually decreases and the amount of energy-rich feed increases. Generally, the optimal slaughter weight is within the weight range that pays the highest price per kilogram of pig meat. The optimal feeding pattern and the optimal timing of slaughter depend on price ratios. Particularly, an increase in the price of pig meat provides incentives to increase the growth rates up to the pig's biological maximum by increasing the amount of energy in the feed. Price changes and changes in slaughter premium can also have large income effects. Key words: barley, carcass composition, dynamic programming, feeding, genotypes, lean, pig fattening, precision agriculture, productivity, slaughter weight, soybeans

A formal synthesis of 18-hydroxyestrone

A formal synthesis of Image -18-hydroxyestrone has been achieved by the preparation of Image -3-methanesulfonyloxy-13β,17β-dicarboxy-18--norestra-1,3,5(10)-triene anhydride, the dextrorotatory enantiomer of which is an intermediate in Barton's conversion of Image -estrone to Image -1β-hydroxyestrone (KC-6A).

Factors affecting farmland prices in Finland

The purpose of the study was to analyse factors affecting the differences in land prices between regions. The key issue was to find out the policy effects on farmland prices. In addition to comprehensive literature review, a theoretical analysis as well as modern panel and spatial econometric techniques were utilized. The study clearly pointed out the importance of taking into account the possible spatial dependence. The data were exceptionally large, comprising more than 6 000 observations. Thus, it allowed a thorough econometric estimation including the possibility to take into account the spatial nature of the data. This study supports the view that there are many other factors that affect farmland prices besides pure agricultural returns. It was also found that the support clearly affects land prices. However, rather than assuming the discount rates for support and market returns to be similar, the rough analysis refers to the discount rate for support being a little lower. If this were true it would indicate that farmers rely more on support income than market returns. The results support the view presented in literature that land values are more responsive to government payments when these payments are perceived to be permanent. An important result of this study is that the structural differences between regions and the structural change in agriculture seemed to have a considerable role in affecting land prices. Firstly, the present structure affects the competition in the land market: the more dense farms are in the region the more there are potential buyers, and the land price increases. Secondly, the change in farm structure (especially in animal husbandry) connected to the policy changes that increase area-based support affects land prices. The effect comes from two sources. Growing farms need more land for the manure, and the proportion of retiring farmers may be lower. The introduction of the manure density variable proved to be an efficient way to aggregate the otherwise very difficult task of taking into account the environmental pressure caused by structural change in animal husbandry. Finally, infrastructure also has a very important role in determining the price level of agricultural land. If other industries are prospering in the surrounding area, agricultural viability also seems to improve. The non-farm opportunities offered to farm families make continuing and developing farming more tempting.

Essays on socially optimal phosphorus policies in crop production

Phosphorus is a nutrient needed in crop production. While boosting crop yields it may also accelerate eutrophication in the surface waters receiving the phosphorus runoff. The privately optimal level of phosphorus use is determined by the input and output prices, and the crop response to phosphorus. Socially optimal use also takes into account the impact of phosphorus runoff on water quality. Increased eutrophication decreases the economic value of surface waters by Deteriorating fish stocks, curtailing the potential for recreational activities and by increasing the probabilities of mass algae blooms. In this dissertation, the optimal use of phosphorus is modelled as a dynamic optimization problem. The potentially plant available phosphorus accumulated in soil is treated as a dynamic state variable, the control variable being the annual phosphorus fertilization. For crop response to phosphorus, the state variable is more important than the annual fertilization. The level of this state variable is also a key determinant of the runoff of dissolved, reactive phosphorus. Also the loss of particulate phosphorus due to erosion is considered in the thesis, as well as its mitigation by constructing vegetative buffers. The dynamic model is applied for crop production on clay soils. At the steady state, the analysis focuses on the effects of prices, damage parameterization, discount rate and soil phosphorus carryover capacity on optimal steady state phosphorus use. The economic instruments needed to sustain the social optimum are also analyzed. According to the results the economic incentives should be conditioned on soil phosphorus values directly, rather than on annual phosphorus applications. The results also emphasize the substantial effects the differences in varying discount rates of the farmer and the social planner have on optimal instruments. The thesis analyzes the optimal soil phosphorus paths from its alternative initial levels. It also examines how erosion susceptibility of a parcel affects these optimal paths. The results underline the significance of the prevailing soil phosphorus status on optimal fertilization levels. With very high initial soil phosphorus levels, both the privately and socially optimal phosphorus application levels are close to zero as the state variable is driven towards its steady state. The soil phosphorus processes are slow. Therefore, depleting high phosphorus soils may take decades. The thesis also presents a methodologically interesting phenomenon in problems of maximizing the flow of discounted payoffs. When both the benefits and damages are related to the same state variable, the steady state solution may have an interesting property, under very general conditions: The tail of the payoffs of the privately optimal path as well as the steady state may provide a higher social welfare than the respective tail of the socially optimal path. The result is formalized and an applied to the created framework of optimal phosphorus use.

Rural Income Generation and Diversification : A Case Study in Eastern Zambia

Rural income diversification has been found to be rather the norm than the exception in developing countries. Smallholder households tend to diversify their income sources because of the need to manage risks, secure a smooth flow of income, allocate surplus labour, respond to various kinds of market failures, and apply coping strategies. The Agricultural Household Model provides a theoretical rationale for income diversification in that rural households aim at maximising their utility. There are several elements involved, such as agricultural production for their own consumption and markets, leisure activities and income from non-farm sources. The aim of the present study is to enhance understanding of the processes of rural income generation and diversification in eastern Zambia. Specifically, it explores the relationship between household characteristics, asset endowments and income-generation patterns. According to the sustainable- rural-livelihoods framework, the assets a household possesses shape its capacity to seize new economic opportunities. The study is based on two surveys conducted among rural smallholder households in four districts of Eastern Province in Zambia in 1985/86 and 2003. Sixty-seven of the interviewed households were present in both surveys and this panel allows comparison between the two points of time. The initial descriptive analysis is complemented with an econometric analysis of the relationships between household assets and income sources. The results show that, on average, 30 per cent of the households income originated from sources outside their own agriculture. There was a slight increase in the proportion of non-farm income from 1985/86 to 2003, but total income clearly declined mainly on account of diminishing crop income. The land area the household was able to cultivate, which is often dependent on the available labour, was the most significant factor affecting both the household-income level and the diversification patterns. Diversification was, in most cases, a coping strategy rather than a voluntary choice. Measured as income/capita/day, all households were below the poverty line in 2003. The agricultural reforms in Zambia, combined with other trends such as changes in rainfall pattern, the worsening livestock situation and the incidence of human disease, had a negative impact on agricultural productivity and income between 1985/86 and 2003. Sources of non-farm income were closely linked to agriculture either upstream or downstream and the income they generated was not enough to compensate for the decline of agricultural income. Household assets and characteristics had a smaller impact on diversification patterns than expected, which could reflect the lack of opportunities in the remote rural environment.

Determinants of farmer retirement and farm succession in Finland

In the past decade, the Finnish agricultural sector has undergone rapid structural changes. The number of farms has decreased and the average farm size has increased when the number of farms transferred to new entrants has decreased. Part of the structural change in agriculture is manifested in early retirement programmes. In studying farmers exit behaviour in different countries, institutional differences, incentive programmes and constraints are found to matter. In Finland, farmers early retirement programmes were first introduced in 1974 and, during the last ten years, they have been carried out within the European Union framework for these programmes. The early retirement benefits are farmer specific and de-pend on the level of pension insurance the farmer has paid over his active farming years. In order to predict the future development of the agricultural sector, farmers have been frequently asked about their future plans and their plans for succession. However, the plans the farmers made for succession have been found to be time inconsistent. This study estimates the value of farmers stated succession plans in predicting revealed succession decisions. A stated succession plan exists when a farmer answers in a survey questionnaire that the farm is going to be transferred to a new entrant within a five-year period. The succession is revealed when the farm is transferred to a suc-cessor. Stated and revealed behaviour was estimated as a recursive Binomial Probit Model, which accounts for the censoring of the decision variables and controls for a potential correlation between the two equations. The results suggest that the succession plans, as stated by elderly farmers in the questionnaires, do not provide information that is significant and valuable in predicting true, com-pleted successions. Therefore, farmer exit should be analysed based on observed behaviour rather than on stated plans and intentions. As farm retirement plays a crucial role in determining the characteristics of structural change in agriculture, it is important to establish the factors which determine an exit from farming among eld-erly farmers and how off-farm income and income losses affect their exit choices. In this study, the observed choice of pension scheme by elderly farmers was analysed by a bivariate probit model. Despite some variations in significance and the effects of each factor, the ages of the farmer and spouse, the age and number of potential successors, farm size, income loss when retiring and the location of the farm together with the production line were found to be the most important determi-nants of early retirement and the transfer or closure of farms. Recently, the labour status of the spouse has been found to contribute significantly to individual retirement decisions. In this study, the effect of spousal retirement and economic incentives related to the timing of a farming couple s early retirement decision were analysed with a duration model. The results suggest that an expected pension in particular advances farm transfers. It was found that on farms operated by a couple, both early retirement and farm succession took place more often than on farms operated by a single person. However, the existence of a spouse delayed the timing of early retirement. Farming couples were found to co-ordinate their early retirement decisions when they both exit through agricultural retirement programmes, but such a co-ordination did not exist when one of the spouses retired under other pension schemes. Besides changes in the agricultural structure, the share and amount of off-farm income of a farm family s total income has also increased. In the study, the effect of off-farm income on farmers retirement decisions, in addition to other financial factors, was analysed. The unknown parameters were first estimated by a switching-type multivariate probit model and then by the simulated maxi-mum likelihood (SML) method, controlling for farmer specific fixed effects and serial correlation of the errors. The results suggest that elderly farmers off-farm income is a significant determinant in a farmer s choice to exit and close down the farm. However, off-farm income only has a short term effect on structural changes in agriculture since it does not significantly contribute to the timing of farm successions.

Keittiömaailman matkassa 20 vuotta : Tutkimus erään keittiökalustevalmistajan johtavan markkina-aseman rakentamisesta ja säilyttämisestä

A View into the World of Kitchen: Development and retention of a leading position in the market of kitchen interiors - a case study of 20 years. This study focuses on the development of a kitchen interiors company, presently called Novart Inc., into the leading company of the industry from 1980´s to the present. The objective of the study is to describe the effects of strategic choices, the decisions of the management and the owner´s direction and control to the build up and the retaining of the leading position in the market. From theory point of view, strategic choices refer to com-pany purchases as corporate-level strategies, and business and marketing strategies. The empirical research was carried out in two phases and it is based on various company documents and records, and on the intensive interviews of seven key executives in the company. An abductive research design was utilized. The company gained the leading position in the kitchen market in Finland by company purchases, and the company has been able to retain the position. Firstly the goal was to expand to retail market and, secondly, the company has maintained the balance of supply and demand by closing the purchased production units when needed. The simultaneous use of these two strategic goals is a kind of a new observation, and the strategy may be suitable only for market leaders. During the latter part of the research period the strategy of com-pany purchases has been abandoned and the leading position in the market has been main-tained by developing systematically business and marketing capability. In the business and marketing strategies the distribution channels and the brands have been emphasized. During the research period the company has almost totally abandoned the long distribution channels and started to use its own channels built and named after the main brands. These are A la Carte, Parma and Petra. At the moment, in the beginning of the 21st century, a new distribution channel, the concept of the Kitchen World, is being built in addition to the channels mentioned above. The management´s decision making and the implementation the decisions have been well-considered. The executives emphasized the valuing of the importance of the decisions dif-ferently except the two decisions named the most important ones, i.e., the decisions to start own production of the raw material and to concentrate the business only to one company. The executive staff has also succeeded in managing crisis and threats of bankruptcy, and the company has been managed profitable. During all the four terms of ownership: Puolimatka Corporation, the Hankkija/Novera Corporation, the ownership period of the "bank", and the Nobia Corporate the ownership direction and control has been somewhat different. All the owners have paid attention to economic issues. The direction of cash flows and investments was at its strongest during the Hankkija/Novera term. For the last owner Nobia the production and marketing of the kitchen interiors has been the core business, which thus has strengthened the business and marketing capabilities of the target company of this research. A common denominator during all the four terms of ownership has been owners' trust gained by the professional skills of the management of the target company. This has lead to greater independence of the management of the company and less owners´ direction. Keywords: leading position, marketing strategy, management decisions, acquisition, corporate governance

Liikennepolttoaineeksi tarkoitettu ohraetanoli, Suomen ohramarkkinat ja ilmastonmuutos

The aim of the thesis was to analyze the use of barley as an input for bioethanol production and the impacts the use has on the Finnish barley markets. Two main research questions were formulated. First, privately and socially optimal bioethanol production levels were examined. In the social optimum, the climate benefits of bioethanol production were considered. It was calculated that the production and use of bioethanol created smaller CO2 -emissions when compared with the production and use of gasoline. Second, the impacts of bioethanol production on farmland allocation and agricultural production were analyzed. In more detail, the second aim was to analyze the farmland allocation between wheat and barley cultivation and green set aside in the private and social optimum. An analytical model was produced to analyze the barley markets in Finland. To provide an empirical counterpart to this model, existing research data on bioethanol production and barley cultivation was used. The aim of the model was to analyze the supply and the demand as well as market equilibrium of barley. Furthermore, the model provided a framework for analyzing the differences between the private optimum and social optimum of bioethanol production in Finland. The demand for barley consists of animal feed demand and bioethanol demand. On the supply side, a heterogeneous model of farmland quality was used. With this framework, it is possible to analyze farmland allocation between barley and wheat cultivation and green set aside and how the climate benefits of bioethanol production affects the allocation. Moreover, the relative changes in barley price between the private and social optimum were analyzed. Based on the empirical analysis, the private optimum for barley based bioethanol production is 58 691 metric tons. However, the social optimum for barley based bioethanol production is 72 736 metric tons. The portion of farmland that is allocated to barley cultivation is increased if the climate benefits of bioethanol production are considered. In the private optimum, 1/19 of the total farmland is allocated to barley cultivation whereas in social optimum the share increases to 7/19. Furthermore, the increase in barley price between private and social optimum is rather modest. Total increase in price is only about 1,8 percent.

Hintakäsitykset funktionaalisista elintarvikkeista ja euron käyttöönoton vaikutus

Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia kuluttajien hintakäsityksiä funktionaalisista elintarvikkeista sekä euron käyttöönoton vaikutuksia niihin. Teoriaosassa tarkasteltiin funktionaalisen elintarvikkeen käsitettä ja sen hintaan liittyviä kysymyksiä erikoistuotteen näkökulmasta sekä kuluttajan hintakäsityksen muodostumisessa tärkeää osaa näyttelevää referenssihintaa ja sen vaikutuksia sekä teoreettista taustaa, erityisesti adaptaatiotasoteoriaa. Lisäksi tarkasteltiin euron mahdollisia vaikutuksia referenssihintaan sekä referenssihinnan roolia kuluttajan hintakäsityksen muodostumisessa. Työn empiirinen osa koostui kahdesta kyselytutkimuksesta, jotka suoritettiin ennen euron käyttöönottoa joulukuussa 2001 ja sen jälkeen huhtikuussa 2002. Ensimmäiseen kyselyyn vastasi 182 ja toiseen 135 vastaajaa. Vastaajat olivat pääkaupunki- sekä Hämeenlinnan seudulta. Tutkimuksen kohteena olevat tuotteet olivat Gefilus®-piimä ja -mehut, ja kohderyhmänä niiden käyttäjät. Tutkimuksen empiirisessä osassa selvitettiin funktionaalisten elintarvikkeiden käyttö- ja ostotottumuksia sekä mielipidettä niiden hintatasosta suhteessa terveysvaikutuksiin ja tavallisiin elintarvikkeisiin. Referenssihintoja tutkimuksen kohteena oleville tuotteille tutkittiin sopivana, korkeimpana ja alhaisimpana hyväksyttävänä hintana.Euron vaikutuksia hintakäsityksiin tutkittiin vastausten eroissa kyselyjen välillä. Euron käyttöönoton aiheuttamia referenssihintojen muutoksia tarkasteltiin hintaherkkyysmittari avulla. Lisäksi tutkittiin euron käyttöönoton aiheuttamia muutoksia ostokäyttäytymisessä. Faktori- ja ryhmittelyanalyyseja käytettiin vastaajien ryhmittelyyn. Funktionaalisia elintarvikkeita pidettiin vastaajien joukossa kalliina suhteessa niiden terveysvaikutuksiin tai tavallisten, ei-funktionaalisten, tuotteiden hintaan. Tutkimuksen kohteena olleiden tuotteiden, Gefilus®-piimän ja -mehujen, hintatasoa pidettiin myös kalliina. Gefilus®-mehujen hintaa pidettiin yleisesti liian kalliina. Euron käyttöönotto aiheutti muutoksia vastaajien referenssihinnoissa. Euron käyttöönoton voitiin havaita vaikuttaneen kuluttajien hintakäsityksiin siten, että hinnat vaikuttivat aikaisempaa halvemmilta. Lisäksi euron käyttöönotto oli vaikeuttanut hintojen arviointia. Lähes kaikki vastaajat olivat sitä mieltä, että euron käyttöönoton jälkeen hinnat olivat nouseet. Euron käyttöönotto oli myös lisännyt pankkikortin käyttöä maksuvälineenä käteisen sijaan. Avainsanat: funktionaalinen elintarvike, terveysvaikutteinen elintarvike, hintakäsitys, referenssihinta, euro

Vapaa-ajan vieton luonnonvarojen kulutus

This thesis studies the use of natural resources for leisure time activities. The method used is Material Input per Service Unit (MIPS method). Leisure time has an increasing effect on the material flows of households, and that way has a bigger pressure on the environment. The most popular way of spending spare time in Finland is to watch TV and to listen to music or radio. Regardless of these, this thesis takes a closer look at boating, playing a musical instrument and visiting a theatre and tries to quantify their material flows. MIPS calculations of this thesis are case-studies and do not tell the whole truth about the hobbies. The aim was to have an overview about the magnitude of the activities. In the boating calculations, inside the system boundaries there are the boat itself, transport of the boat, outboard motor, gasoline consumption of the outboard motor, travelling to and from the harbour, and the harbour infrastructure. Calculations of playing a music instrument consider the instrument itself, music school and its maintenance, and travelling to the school. In the case of theatre the included things are theatre house and its maintenance, decor and costumes of the plays, transport of the decor, and travelling of the audience. The results of this thesis suggest that the biggest material flow of boating comes from travelling to and from the harbour and from the harbour infrastructure. The gasoline consumption of the outboard motor also makes a difference. One hour of boating with a rowing boat consumes 1 kg of abiotic materials. Boating with an outboard motorboat consumes astonishing 113 kg of abiotic resources. Visiting a music lesson for one hour consumes 9 kg of abiotic resources when travelling there by bus. One hour in a theatre play consumes 17 kg of abiotic materials when travelling by bus. Transport has a significant role on the resource consumption of leisure time activities.

Suomen maatalouden tuottamat kasvihuonekaasujen päästöt eri politiikkaskenaarioissa

Climate change is the single biggest environmental problem in the world at the moment. Although the effects are still not fully understood and there is considerable amount of uncertainty, many na-tions have decided to mitigate the change. On the societal level, a planner who tries to find an eco-nomically optimal solution to an environmental pollution problem seeks to reduce pollution from the sources where reductions are most cost-effective. This study aims to find out how effective the instruments of the agricultural policy are in the case of climate change mitigation in Finland. The theoretical base of this study is the neoclassical economic theory that is based on the assumption of a rational economic agent who maximizes his own utility. This theoretical base has been widened towards the direction clearly essential to the matter: the theory of environmental eco-nomics. Deeply relevant to this problem and central in the theory of environmental economics are the concepts of externalities and public goods. What are also relevant are the problems of global pollution and non-point-source pollution. Econometric modelling was the method that was applied to this study. The Finnish part of the AGMEMOD-model, covering the whole EU, was used for the estimation of the development of pollution. This model is a seemingly recursive, partially dynamic partial-equilibrium model that was constructed to predict the development of Finnish agricultural production of the most important products. For the study, I personally updated the model and also widened its scope in some relevant matters. Also, I devised a table that can calculate the emissions of greenhouse gases according to the rules set by the IPCC. With the model I investigated five alternative scenarios in comparison to the base-line scenario of Agenda 2000 agricultural policy. The alternative scenarios were: 1) the CAP reform of 2003, 2) free trade on agricultural commodities, 3) technological change, 4) banning the cultivation of organic soils and 5) the combination of the last three scenarios as the maximal achievement in reduction. The maximal achievement in the alternative scenario 5 was 1/3 of the level achieved on the base-line scenario. CAP reform caused only a minor reduction when com-pared to the base-line scenario. Instead, the free trade scenario and the scenario of technological change alone caused a significant reduction. The biggest single reduction was achieved by banning the cultivation of organic land. However, this was also the most questionable scenario to be real-ized, the reasons for this are further elaborated in the paper. The maximal reduction that can be achieved in the Finnish agricultural sector is about 11 % of the emission reduction that is needed to comply with the Kyoto protocol.

Tukien tuotannosta irrottamisen vaikutukset viljan, naudanlihan ja sianlihan tarjontaan Suomessa

This research discusses decoupling CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) support and impacts which may occur on grain cultivation area and supply of beef and pork in Finland. The study presents the definitions and studies on decoupled agricultural subsidies, the development of supply of grain, beef and pork in Finland and changes in leading factors affecting supply between 1970 and 2005. Decoupling agricultural subsidies means that the linkage between subsidies and production levels is disconnected; subsidies do not affect the amount produced. The hypothesis is that decoupling will decrease the amounts produced in agriculture substantially. In the supply research, the econometric models which represent supply of agricultural products are estimated based on the data of prices and amounts produced. With estimated supply models, the impacts of changes in prices and public policies, can be forecasted according to supply of agricultural products. In this study, three regression models describing combined cultivation areas of rye, wheat, oats and barley, and the supply of beef and pork are estimated. Grain cultivation area and supply of beef are estimated based on data from 1970 to 2005 and supply of pork on data from 1995 to 2005. The dependencies in the model are postulated to be linear. The explanatory variables in the grain model were average return per hectare, agricultural subsidies, grain cultivation area in the previous year and the cost of fertilization. The explanatory variables in the beef model were the total return from markets and subsidies and the amount of beef production in the previous year. In the pork model the explanatory variables were the total return, the price of piglet, investment subsidies, trend of increasing productivity and the dummy variable of the last quarter of the year. The R-squared of model of grain cultivation area was 0,81, the model of beef supply 0,77 and the model of pork supply 0,82. Development of grain cultivation area and supply of beef and pork was estimated for 2006 - 2013 with this regression model. In the basic scenario, development of explanatory variables in 2006 - 2013 was postulated to be the same as they used to be in average in 1995 - 2005. After the basic scenario the impacts of decoupling CAP subsidies and domestic subsidies on cultivation area and supply were simulated. According to the results of the decoupling CAP subsidies scenario, grain cultivation area decreases from 1,12 million hectares in 2005 to 1,0 million hectares in 2013 and supply of beef from 88,8 million kilos in 2005 to 67,7 million kilos in 2013. Decoupling domestic and investment subsidies will decrease the supply of pork from 194 million kilos in 2005 to 187 million kilos in 2006. By 2013 the supply of pork grows into 203 million kilos.

Liikuntaharrastusten luonnonvarojen kulutuksen arviointi MIPS-menetelmällä

Tutkielmassa tarkastellaan liikuntaharrastusten luonnonvarojen kulutusta MIPS (material input per service unit, suom. materiaalipanos palvelusuoritetta kohden) -menetelmällä. MIPS-menetelmä perustuu ekotehokkuusajatteluun ja sen tavoitteena on suhteuttaa tuotteen tai palvelun elinkaaren aikainen luonnonvarojen kulutus siitä saatavaan palveluun. Tässä tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan liikuntaharrastusten materiaalivirtoja erilaisissa liikuntapaikoissa yhden henkilön harrastetuntia kohden. Tarkasteltavia liikuntapaikkoja ovat kevyen liikenteen väylä, kuntorata, liikuntasali ja -halli, jäähalli, uimahalli, kuntokeskus sekä lämmitetty ja lämmittämätön tekonurmikenttä. Tutkielman laskelmat perustuvat pääosin tapaustutkimuksiin suomalaisista liikuntapaikoista. Laskelmissa on huomioitu liikuntapaikalle matkustaminen, liikuntapaikan rakentaminen sekä sen ylläpito ja käyttö. Tarkasteltujen liikuntaharrastusten abioottisten luonnonvarojen kulutus vaihteli 1,7 28 kg:n välillä yhden henkilön harrastetuntia kohden. Abioottisten luonnonvarojen kulutukseen vaikutti eniten liikuntapaikalle matkustaminen. Tarkastelluista liikuntaharrastuksista eniten abioottisia luonnonvaroja ja ilmaa kulutti uimahallissa uiminen. Kuntoradoilla ja kevyen liikenteen väylillä harrastettavien ulkoilulajien MIPS-luvut olivat alhaisimmat. Liikuntaharrastukset erosivat toisistaan eniten veden kulutuksessa, jonka MIPS-luvut vaihtelivat 40 ja 1400 kg:n välillä. Korkein veden MIPS-luku oli jäähallissa tapahtuvalla liikunnalla. Ilman kulutus liikuntaharrastuksissa oli 0,1 6,2 kg harrastetuntia kohden. Tulosten perusteella liikuntaharrastusten luonnonvarojen kulutusta voitaisiin tehokkaimmin vähentää kulkemalla liikuntapaikalle henkilöauton sijaan julkisilla kulkuneuvoilla ja hyödyntämällä lähiympäristön tarjoamia liikuntapaikkoja. Myös liikuntapaikkojen kävijämäärien maksimoiminen on tärkeää harrastetunnille kohdistuvien materiaalivirtojen pienentämiseksi. Tutkielma on toteutettu osana FIN-MIPS Kotitalous tutkimushanketta.