How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Implementation of two-stage Hopfield model and its application in nonlinear systems

This paper presents an efficient neural network for solving constrained nonlinear optimization problems. More specifically, a two-stage neural network architecture is developed and its internal parameters are computed using the valid-subspace technique. The main advantage of the developed network is that it treats optimization and constraint terms in different stages with no interference with each other. Moreover, the proposed approach does not require specification of penalty or weighting parameters for its initialization.

Two-branes with variable tension model and the effective Newtonian constant

It is shown that, in the two brane time variation model framework, if the hidden brane tension varies according to the phenomenological Eotvos law, the visible brane tension behavior is such that its time derivative is negative in the past and positive after a specific time of cosmological evolution. This behavior is interpreted in terms of a useful mechanical system analog and its relation with the variation of the Newtonian (effective) gravitational constant is explored.

Rat model of depending prostaglandin renal state: Effect of ketoprofen

Introduction .The renal prostaglandins (PGs), vasodilators, preserve kidney function during increased activity of the renin-angiotensin system or renal sympathetic nerves (renal PG-dependent state [RPGD]). Ketoprofen (Ket) inhibits cyclooxygenase and, therefore, the synthesis of PGs. The aim of this study was to determine, in the rat, the action of Ket in the renal histology and function in a RPGD state (stress of anesthesia and hemorrhage). Material and Methods . Twenty male Wistar rats, anesthetized with sodium pentobarbital, were randomly divided into two groups: G1-control ( n = 10) and G2-Ket ( n = 10) submitted to arterial hemorrhage of 30% of volemia (estimated as 6% of body weight) three times (10% each 10 min), 65 min after anesthesia. G2 animals received Ket, 1.5 mg. kg -1 , venously, 5 min after anesthesia and 60 min before the first hemorrhage moment (first moment of the study [M1]). Medium arterial pressure (MAP), rectal temperature (T), and heart rate were monitored. G1 and G2 received para-aminohippurate sodium (PAH) and iothalamate sodium (IOT) solutions during the entire experimental time in order to determine clearance of PAH (effective renal plasma flow [ERPF]) and clearance of IOT (glomerular filtration rate [GFR]) without urine collection (determination of blood concentrations of PAH and IOT through the high-performance liquid chromatography), filtration fraction (FF), and renal vascular resistance (RVR). The animals were sacrificed in M3, 30 min after the third hemorrhage (M2) moment, and the kidneys and blood collected during the hemorrhage periods were utilized for histological study and determinations of hematocrit (Ht), serum creatinine (S Cr ), ERPF, GFR, FF, and RVR, respectively. Results . There were significant reductions of MAP, T, and Ht and a significant increase of S Cr . During the experiment, ERPF and GFR did not change, but ERPF was always higher in G1 than in G2. Ket did not alter FF, which increased in G1 over the duration of experiment. The Ket group had significantly higher RVR than the control group. The histology verified that both G1 and G2 were similar for tubular dilation and necrosis, but they were significantly different for tubular degeneration: G1 > G2. Conclusion . The changes observed in kidney histology probably were determined by hemorrhage and hypotension. Ket inhibited the synthesis of PGs and diminished tubular degeneration.

Evaluation of Carcinogenic Potential of Diuron in a Rat Mammary Two-Stage Carcinogenesis Model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Potential effects of the herbicide Diuron on mammary and urinary bladder two-stage carcinogenesis in a female Swiss mouse model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Cold Renal Ischemia: Comparison of Efficacy Between Two Techniques of Cooling, in a Swine Model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Stochastic dynamics in exotic and native blowflies: an analysis combining laboratory experiments and a two-patch metapopulation model

In this study we explored the stochastic population dynamics of three exotic blowfly species, Chrysomya albiceps, Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, and two native species, Cochliomyia macellaria and Lucilia eximia, by combining a density-dependent growth model with a two-patch metapopulation model. Stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were investigated by permitting random variations between predetermined demographic boundary values based on experimental data. Lucilia eximia and Chrysomya albiceps were the species most susceptible to the risk of local extinction. Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria exhibited lower risks of extinction when compared to the other species. The simultaneous analysis of stochastic fecundity and survival revealed an increase in the extinction risk for all species. When stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were simulated together, the coupled populations were synchronized in the five species. These results are discussed, emphasizing biological invasion and interspecific interaction dynamics.

Caenorhabditis elegans as a model to screen plant extracts and compounds as natural anthelmintics for veterinary use

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Friction losses in valves and fittings for liquid food products

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The two-loop massless (lambda/4!)phi(4) model in nontranslational invariant domain

We study the (lambda/4!)phi(4) massless scalar field theory in a four-dimensional Euclidean space, where all but one of the coordinates are unbounded. We are considering Dirichlet boundary conditions in two hyperplanes, breaking the translation invariance of the system. We show how to implement the perturbative renormalization up to two-loop level of the theory. First, analyzing the full two and four-point functions at the one-loop level, we show that the bulk counterterms are sufficient to render the theory finite. Meanwhile, at the two-loop level, we must also introduce surface counterterms in the bare Lagrangian in order to make finite the full two and also four-point Schwinger functions. (c) 2006 American Institute of Physics.

Search for the standard model Higgs boson decaying into two photons in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Superspace evaluation of the two-loop effective potential for the O'Raifeartaigh model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Is the LHC observing the pseudoscalar state of a two-Higgs-doublet model?

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A bouncing ball model with two nonlinearities: a prototype for Fermi acceleration

Some dynamical properties of a bouncing ball model under the presence of an external force modelled by two nonlinear terms are studied. The description of the model is made by the use of a two-dimensional nonlinear measure-preserving map on the variable's velocity of the particle and time. We show that raising the straight of a control parameter which controls one of the nonlinearities, the positive Lyapunov exponent decreases in the average and suffers abrupt changes. We also show that for a specific range of control parameters, the model exhibits the phenomenon of Fermi acceleration. The explanation of both behaviours is given in terms of the shape of the external force and due to a discontinuity of the moving wall's velocity.