はしがき/目次

2009年度調査研究報告書

第3章 アジア通貨危機後の韓国における分配構造変化と家計消費

本章では、内需不振の大きな原因となっている消費に注目し、その背後にある分配構造を検証するための論点を探ることにする。とくに、としてアジア通貨危機以後の企業構造改革に注目し、それが韓国の家計消費にどのような影響を与えるのかを探るためのモデル構築に資する諸要因を明らかにしたい。

第4章 アジア長期需要成長の計量モデルに向けて

本章の目的はアジアの新しい経済成長を内需主導で実現するために必要な施策を考えるために内需の決定要因に関する予備的考察を行うことである。これまで需要制約を重視する計量モデルは短期のケインズモデルと考えられてきた。しかし今後は消費を中心にした内需の成長がアジアの成長の重要な要因となるだろう。本章では人口学的要因を考慮した消費関数を推計する簡便な定式化を試みる。

Contents

2009年度調査研究報告書

Introduction New Challenges in New Economic Geography

2009年度調査研究報告書

Chapter 1 Market Access and Intermediate Goods Trade

This paper examines a distinctive feature of intermediate goods trade which the traditional gravity equation fails to capture, i.e., intermediate goods trade is positively related not only to the importing country's demand for finished goods but also to its neighbors' demand for finished goods. We regress a gravity equation for finished goods trade in the first step. Then, introducing the importing country's access to the total demand for finished goods which is calculated by using the estimates in the first step, we regress our gravity equation for trade in intermediate goods. Our regression results confirm such a feature of intermediate goods trade. Using the results of the regression, we simulate how the rise of US consumers' demand for finished goods affects the total imports and exports of intermediate goods in each country.

Chapter 2 Equilibrium locations of upstream and downstream firms

This paper explores the interaction between upstream firms and downstream firms in a two-region general equilibrium model. In many countries, lower tariff rates are set for intermediate manufactured goods and higher tariff rates are set for final manufactured goods. The derived results imply that such settings of tariff rates tend to preserve a symmetric spread of upstream and downstream firms, and continuing tariff reduction may cause core-periphery structures. In the case in which the circular causality between upstream and downstream firms is focused as agglomeration forces, the present model is fully solved. Thus, we find that (1) the present model displays, at most, three interior steady states, (2) when the asymmetric steady-states exist, they are unstable and (3) location displays hysteresis when the transport costs of intermediate manufactured goods are sufficiently high.

Chapter 3 Knowledge Exchanges and Innovation in Connected Firms: Evidence from Upstream-Downstream Relationships

This paper proposes evidences for linking innovation and knowledge exchanges in developing economies towards a comprehensive theory of new economic geography in the knowledge based spatial economy. Firms which dispatched engineers to customers achieved more innovations than firms which did not. Mutual sharing of knowledge also stimulates innovations. A just-in-time relationship is effective for dealing with upgrading production process. But such strong complementarities with partners are not effective for product innovation.. These evidences support the hypothesis that face-to-face communication and complementarities among production linkages have different roles in knowledge creation.

Chapter 5 Product Differentiation versus Geographical Differentiation: Evidence from the Pork Processing Industry in China

This chapter attempts to identify whether product differentiation or geographical differentiation is the main source of profit for firms in developing economies by employing a simple idea from the recently developed method of empirical industrial organization. Theoretically, location choice and product choice have been considered as analogues in differentiation, but in the real world, which of these strategies is chosen will result in an immense difference in firm behavior and in the development process of the industry. Development of the technique of empirical industrial organization enabled us to identify market outcomes with endogeneity. A typical case is the market outcome with differentiation, where price or product choice is endogenously determined. Our original survey contains data on market location, differences in product types, and price. The results show that product differentiation rather than geographical differentiation mitigates pressure on price competition, but 70 per cent secures geographical monopoly.

同胞の「帰還」 : カザフスタンにおける在外カザフ人呼び寄せ政策

カザフスタンは独立後，帝政ロシアおよびソ連時代の植民地的政策や戦乱によって離散した同胞を呼び寄せ，少数派に甘んじていたカザフ人人口を増大させて，共和国を名実ともにカザフ人の国家とすることを目指した。カザフ人のみを優遇する移民政策は世論の強い反対もなく，当面維持される可能性が高い。これは権威主義体制の下で非カザフ人の民族的異議申し立てが封じ込まれているほか，カザフスタンではむしろ現地のカザフ人のあいだで言語的・文化的ロシア化が進行しており，異文化に同化した在外同胞は排除すべきだという主張がされにくいことなどが背景にある。しかし在外同胞の招聘は当初の政治目的を失いつつある。ロシア人らの大量出国によって短期間でカザフ人の人口的優位が確立し，民族構成を変化させるツールとしての在外同胞呼び寄せの重要性は薄れたからだ。カザフ人移民はもはや同胞というだけでは歓迎されず，労働力としての「質」を問われ始めている。

Does Quality Matter in the Iron and Scrap Trade?

This paper sheds light on the iron and steel (IS) scrap trade to examine how economic development affects the quality demanded of recyclable resource. A simple model is presented that show a mechanism of how scrap quality impacts the direction of trade due to comparative advantage. We find that economic development in both importing and exporting countries has a positive effect on the quality of traded recyclables. Developed countries that intend to improve the domestic recovery of recyclables should raise the quality of separating recyclables while developing countries should tighten environmental regulations to help decrease the import of recyclables that cause pollution.

A model of economic growth with saturating demand

This study presents a model of economic growth based on saturating demand, where the demand for a good has a certain maximum amount. In this model, the economy grows not only by the improvement in production efficiency in each sector, but also by the migration of production factors (labor in this model) from demand-saturated sectors to the non-saturated sector. It is assumed that the production of a brand-new good will begin after all the existing goods are demand-saturated. Hence, there are cycles where the production of a new good emerges followed by the demand saturation of that good. The model then predicts that should the growth rate be stable and positive in the long run, the above-mentioned cycle must become shorter over time. If the length of cycles is constant over time, the growth rate eventually approaches zero because the number of goods produced grows.

Preliminary discussions on the urbanization of rural areas in modern Iran

In this translation draft of the first part of the author's recently-published book in Japanese, entitled as "Rural-cities in Contemporary Iran: Revolution, War and the Structural Changes in the Rural Society," we are presenting the preliminary discussions on Iranian middle-sized cities and towns which emerged in these 30 years or so. We start from the explanations of the contents of the above-mentioned book and do the reviewing of the preceding studies, followed by the critical review of the studies on the Iranian revolution in 1979, and the studies on Iran's recent political trends and the tendencies towards the local governance, which was tempered and collapsed with the appearance of President Ahmadīnejād. This consists of the Introduction and the first parts of Chapter 1 of our book, and we are expecting to finish translating the whole contents and to publish it in the near future. We apologize for the shortcomings of this paper, for example some partial lack of correspondence of its bibliography with the main contents, mainly because of the technical reasons.