960 resultados para Probabilistic Projections


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The Institute of Public Health in Ireland publishes estimates and forecasts of the prevalence of chronic health conditions for national and subnational areas on the island of Ireland. The estimates and forecasts are based on statistical models of nationally representative health survey data that estimate the risk of having the condition. The risks of having the condition are then applied to population estimates and projections. The purpose of this document is to: 1. Compare IPH prevalence estimates with prevalence estimates from other health surveys on the island. 2. Highlight the methodological issues in comparing prevalence estimates from different surveys.

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The projections of mechanosensory hairs located on the dorsal and lateral head of the adult haematophagous bug Triatoma infestans were analyzed by means of cobalt filling. Axons run into the anterior and posterior tegumentary nerve and project through the brain to the ventral nerve cord. The fibres are small in diameter and run as a fascicle. Some branches run into suboesophageal and prothoracic centres; others run as far as to the mesothoracic ganglion. These sensory projections resemble that of wind-sensitive head hairs of the locust. The functional role of this sensory system in this species is discussed.

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El canvi climàtic del segle XXI és una realitat, hi ha moltes evidències científiques que indiquen que l’escalfament del sistema climàtic és inequívoc. Malgrat això, també hi ha moltes incerteses respecte els impactes que pot comportar aquest canvi climàtic global. L’objectiu d’aquest projecte és estudiar la possible evolució futura de tres variables climàtiques, que són el rang de la temperatura diürna a prop de la superfície (DTR), la temperatura mitjana a prop de la superfície (MT) i la precipitació mensual (PL_mes) i valorar l’exposició que poden experimentar diferents cobertes del sòl i diferents regions biogeogràfiques del continent europeu davant d’aquests possibles patrons de canvi. Per això s’han utilitzat Models Climàtics Globals que fan projeccions de variables climàtiques que permeten preveure el possible clima futur. Mitjançant l’aplicatiu informàtic Tetyn s’han extret els paràmetres climàtics dels conjunts de dades del Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, del futur (TYN SC) i del passat (CRU TS). Les variables obtingudes s’han processat amb eines de sistemes d’informació geogràfica (SIG) per obtenir els patrons de canvi de les variables a cada coberta del sòl. Els resultats obtinguts mostren que hi ha una gran variabilitat, que augmenta amb el temps, entre els diferents models climàtics i escenaris considerats, que posa de manifest la incertesa associada a la modelització climàtica, a la generació d’escenaris d’emissions i a la naturalesa dinàmica i no determinista del sistema climàtic. Però en general, mostren que les glaceres seran una de les cobertes més exposades al canvi climàtic, i la mediterrània, una de les regions més vulnerables

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The tegument of the polyopisthocotylean monogenean Atriaster heterodus Lebedev & Parukhin, 1969 was studied using transmission electron microscopy. The outer syncytial layer of the tegument is connected to the internal cell bodies by cytoplasmic extensions which interweave between the muscular fibres. The free surface of the syncytium has projections of the external membrane which are similar to microvilli. The undulating basal membrane, with numerous narrow elongate projections, is associated with the basal lamina situated between the syncytial and muscular layers. The cell bodies and syncytial layer of the tegument exhibit two types of vesicles, one with fibrous contents and one with electron-dense contents; these were analysed using two cytochemical tests, the E-PTA and alcian blue methods, used for the first time on monogeneans.

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ABSTRACT : The whisker-to-barrel pathway of rodents is formed by a series of somatotopic projections from the mystacial whisker follicles to the layer IV of the primary somatosensory cortex such that each follicle corresponds to a cluster of cortical neurons called barrel. Barrels are present in layer IV but form part of functional columns that comprise the entire depth of the somatosensory cortex. Interestingly, the cortex of the barrelless mouse strain (BRL) is organized such a manner that thalamocortical afferents do not remodel their projections in layer IV and barrels fail to appear. Nevertheless, functionally, a columnar organization persists, indicating that functional columns are not only provided by thalamocortical projections and layer IV cells. Since in the visual cortex of cats, layer VI cells contribute to the response properties of layer IV neurons, we wonder whether layer VI pyramidal cells could contribute to the columnar organization of the primary somatosensory cortex of mice. To address -this question, we morphologically analyzed the distribution of intracortical axon collaterals of layer VI neurons after in-vivo juxtacellular injections of biocytin in the C2 barrel column. Injected hemispheres were tangentially serial cut and intracortical collaterals of individual layer VI neurons were reconstructed at the light microscopic level. The position of axonal boutons was recorded to evaluate the distribution of presumed synaptic contacts. In normal (NOR) mice, cluster analysis shows that layer VI pyramidal cells can be classified in four statistically different clusters of neurons. Moreover, we assume that two classes are formed by cortico-cortical neurons and two classes are formed by cortico-thalamic neurons. Looking at the direction of the main axon in the white matter, we noticed that its orientation correlates perfectly with the type of neuron: cortico-cortical neurons send main axon medially whereas cortico-thalamic neurons send main axon laterally. Performing the same study in the BRL strain, we showed that the BRL mutation affects layer VI pyramidal cells tangentially and radially: the effects of the mutation are illustrated by a significant decrease of the index of colurnnarization and a significant decrease of percentage of boutons in granular and supragranular layers comparing to NOR neurons. In spite of these differences, the same four classes of layer VI neurons have been found in BRL mice. Using a tangential analysis of the boutons distribution, we showed that putative synapses are distributed mainly in the C2 barrel column. This was observed for each layer, type of neuron, cluster or strain, indicating that layer VI pyramidal cells could participate to the functional columnar organization of the barrel cortex. To determine post-synaptic partners of layer VI neurons in layer IV, we conducted an ultrastructural analysis of layer VI-to-IV contacts. We showed that synapses principally occur on spines and spiny dendritic shafts, supposed to belong to excitatory neurons. We furthermore showed that pre-synaptic elements are significantly different between en passant and terminaux contacts, which support hypothesis that terminaux boutons should show longer duration of facilitation than en passant boutons. RÉSUMÉ : Le «whisker-to-barrel pathway» des rongeurs est caractérisé par une série de projections somatotopiques depuis les follicules des moustaches ('whiskers') jusqu'à la couche IV de l'aire somatosensorielle primaire, de telle façon que chaque follicule corresponde à un groupe de neurones corticaux appelés tonneaux (`barrels'). Les tonneaux sont seulement présents en couche IV mais font partie de colonnes fonctionnelles qui s'étendent sur toute la profondeur du cortex somatosensoriel. Chez les souris mutantes barrelless (BRL), le cortex somatosensoriel est organisé de façon telle que lés afférences thalamocorticales ne remodellent pas leurs projections en couche IV et que les tonneaux n'apparaissent pas. Fonctionnellement, pourtant, une organisation en colonnes persiste, ce qui indique que les colonnes fonctionnelles ne sont pas uniquement produites par les projections thalamocorticales et par les cellules de la couche IV. Puisque les cellules de la couche VI contribuent à influencer les réponses des cellules de la couche IV dans le cortex visuel du chat, nous nous sommes demandé si ces cellules ne pourraient pas aussi contribuer à l'organisation en colonnes du cortex somatosensoriel primaire de la souris. Pour répondre à cette question, nous avons analysé de façon morphologique la distribution intracorticale des collatéraux axonaux de neurones de la couche VI. Suite à des injections juxtacellulaires de biocytine in-vivo dans la colonne C2, les hémisphères cérébraux ont été tangentiellement coupés en série et les collatéraux intracorticaux des neurones de la couche VI ont été reconstruits en microscopie optique. La position des boutons axonaux a aussi été enregistrée pour évaluer la distribution des contacts synpptiques potentiels. Chez les souris NOR, une analyse multivariée montre que les cellules pyramidales de la couche VI sont distribuées en quatre classes. Deux de ces classes sont probablement formées de neurons cortico-corticaux, alors que les deux autres sont probablement formées de neurones corticothalamiques. En observant la direction de l'axone principal dans la matière blanche, nous avons noté que son orientation est parfaitement corrélée avec le type supposé de neurone : les neurones corticocorticaux envoient leurs axones principaux médiallement, alors que les neurons cortico-thalamiques envoient leurs axones principaux latéralement. En menant la même étude chez les souris BRL, nous avons montré que la mutation affecte les cellules pyramidales de la couche VI de façon tangentielle, mais aussi radiaire : les effets de 1a mutation se traduisent par une diminution significative de l'index de « columnarization » et de la connectivité en couches granulaire et supragranulaire. Malgré ces différences, les quatre mêmes classes de neurones ont été retrouvées. En utilisant une analyse tangentielle de la distribution des boutons, nous avons montré que les synapses potentielles sont distribuées principalement dans la colonne C2. Cette observation a été faite dans chaque couche, chaque type de neurones, chaque classe de neurones et chaque souche de souris, indicant que les cellules de la couche VI participent certainement à l'organisation en colonne du cortex somatosensoriel. Pour déterminer les partenaires post-synaptiques des cellules de la couche VI en couche IV, nous avons conduit une analyse ultrastructurelle de ces contacts. Nous avons montré que les synapses interviennent principalement sur les épines et sur les dendrites supposés appartenir à des cellules excitatrices. Nous avons aussi montré que les éléments pré-synaptiques de ces synapses sont significativement differents selon le type de bouton, en passant ou terminal, ce qui supporte l'hypothèse que les boutons terminaux seraient capables d'une plus longue facilitation.

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Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la Universitat de Bonn, Alemanya, entre agost i desembre del 2008. Recentement, arran de la creació del Registre de Càncer de Catalunya, s'ha el.laborat un nou "estat de la qüestió" del càncer a Catalunya, que ha permès obtenir una imatge complerta de la incidència, mortalitat i supervivència del càncer a Catalunya, a partir de les dades obtingudes pels registres poblacionals del càncer de Girona i Tarragona pel que fa a la incidència del càncer, i pel registre de Mortalitat de Catalunya, pel que fa a la mortalitat per càncer. El projecte realitzat ha tingut dos objectius principals. En primer lloc, desenvolupar un conjunt integrat de funcions per al càlcul automatitzat de la incidència, mortalitat i supervivència, així com l'ajust dels models estadístics que permeten avaluar les tendències i obtenir les projeccions del càncer pels anys futurs. En segon lloc, s'han aplicat les funcions a les dades disponibles i s'han obtingut els resultats a Catalunya, que inclou les projeccions de la incìdència i mortalitat per càncer a Catalunya fins a l'any 2020. Tos dos objectius han estat substancialment assolits. Pel que fa al primer, s'ha desenvolupat un fitxer font en R que conté les macros i funcions utilitzades. Pel que fa al segon, les anàlisis realitzades han estat emprades per a la realització d'una monografia sobre el càncer a Catalunya, que actualment està acceptada per la seva publicació. Els resultats mostren que la incidència per càncer ha augmentat i està previst que així continuï, tot i que es preveu un esmoertiment de l'augment pels homes. Pel que fa a la mortalitat s'observa un recent decrement que es preveu que es mantingui en el futur, essent aquest major pels homes respecte les dones.

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The effect of copper (Cu) filtration on image quality and dose in different digital X-ray systems was investigated. Two computed radiography systems and one digital radiography detector were used. Three different polymethylmethacrylate blocks simulated the pediatric body. The effect of Cu filters of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 mm thickness on the entrance surface dose (ESD) and the corresponding effective doses (EDs) were measured at tube voltages of 60, 66, and 73 kV. Image quality was evaluated in a contrast-detail phantom with an automated analyzer software. Cu filters of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 mm thickness decreased the ESD by 25-32%, 32-39%, and 40-44%, respectively, the ranges depending on the respective tube voltages. There was no consistent decline in image quality due to increasing Cu filtration. The estimated ED of anterior-posterior (AP) chest projections was reduced by up to 23%. No relevant reduction in the ED was noted in AP radiographs of the abdomen and pelvis or in posterior-anterior radiographs of the chest. Cu filtration reduces the ESD, but generally does not reduce the effective dose. Cu filters can help protect radiosensitive superficial organs, such as the mammary glands in AP chest projections.

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Let A be a simple, separable C*-algebra of stable rank one. We prove that the Cuntz semigroup of C (T, A) is determined by its Murray-von Neumann semigroup of projections and a certain semigroup of lower semicontinuous functions (with values in the Cuntz semigroup of A). This result has two consequences. First, specializing to the case that A is simple, finite, separable and Z-stable, this yields a description of the Cuntz semigroup of C (T, A) in terms of the Elliott invariant of A. Second, suitably interpreted, it shows that the Elliott functor and the functor defined by the Cuntz semigroup of the tensor product with the algebra of continuous functions on the circle are naturally equivalent.

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Given positive integers n and m, we consider dynamical systems in which n copies of a topological space is homeomorphic to m copies of that same space. The universal such system is shown to arise naturally from the study of a C*-algebra we denote by Om;n, which in turn is obtained as a quotient of the well known Leavitt C*-algebra Lm;n, a process meant to transform the generating set of partial isometries of Lm;n into a tame set. Describing Om;n as the crossed-product of the universal (m; n) -dynamical system by a partial action of the free group Fm+n, we show that Om;n is not exact when n and m are both greater than or equal to 2, but the corresponding reduced crossed-product, denoted Or m;n, is shown to be exact and non-nuclear. Still under the assumption that m; n &= 2, we prove that the partial action of Fm+n is topologically free and that Or m;n satisfies property (SP) (small projections). We also show that Or m;n admits no finite dimensional representations. The techniques developed to treat this system include several new results pertaining to the theory of Fell bundles over discrete groups.

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The surface topography and ultrastructure of the tegument of Paranaella luquei Kohn, Baptista-Farias & Cohen, 2000, a microcotylid monogenean parasite from the gills of Hypostomus regani (Ihering, 1905) (Loricariidae) was studied by scanning (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). By SEM, it was observed that the tegument presents transversal ridges, forming folds in the ventral and dorsal surfaces and microvillous-like tegumental projections in the anterior and median regions of body. These projections were also observed by TEM. The tegument is made up of a syncytium delimited by apical and basal plasma membranes, containing inclusion bodies and mitochondria, connected to the nucleated region by means of cytoplasmatic processes. The tegumental cells present a well developed nucleus and cytoplasm containing inclusion bodies, similar to those found on the external layer, mitochondria, rough endoplasmatic reticulum and free ribossomes.

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The hypothalamic neuropeptide oxytocin (OT), which controls childbirth and lactation, receives increasing attention for its effects on social behaviors, but how it reaches central brain regions is still unclear. Here we gained by recombinant viruses selective genetic access to hypothalamic OT neurons to study their connectivity and control their activity by optogenetic means. We found axons of hypothalamic OT neurons in the majority of forebrain regions, including the central amygdala (CeA), a structure critically involved in OT-mediated fear suppression. In vitro, exposure to blue light of channelrhodopsin-2-expressing OT axons activated a local GABAergic circuit that inhibited neurons in the output region of the CeA. Remarkably, in vivo, local blue-light-induced endogenous OT release robustly decreased freezing responses in fear-conditioned rats. Our results thus show widespread central projections of hypothalamic OT neurons and demonstrate that OT release from local axonal endings can specifically control region-associated behaviors.

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In the PhD thesis “Sound Texture Modeling” we deal with statistical modelling or textural sounds like water, wind, rain, etc. For synthesis and classification. Our initial model is based on a wavelet tree signal decomposition and the modeling of the resulting sequence by means of a parametric probabilistic model, that can be situated within the family of models trainable via expectation maximization (hidden Markov tree model ). Our model is able to capture key characteristics of the source textures (water, rain, fire, applause, crowd chatter ), and faithfully reproduces some of the sound classes. In terms of a more general taxonomy of natural events proposed by Graver, we worked on models for natural event classification and segmentation. While the event labels comprise physical interactions between materials that do not have textural propierties in their enterity, those segmentation models can help in identifying textural portions of an audio recording useful for analysis and resynthesis. Following our work on concatenative synthesis of musical instruments, we have developed a pattern-based synthesis system, that allows to sonically explore a database of units by means of their representation in a perceptual feature space. Concatenative syntyhesis with “molecules” built from sparse atomic representations also allows capture low-level correlations in perceptual audio features, while facilitating the manipulation of textural sounds based on their physical and perceptual properties. We have approached the problem of sound texture modelling for synthesis from different directions, namely a low-level signal-theoretic point of view through a wavelet transform, and a more high-level point of view driven by perceptual audio features in the concatenative synthesis setting. The developed framework provides unified approach to the high-quality resynthesis of natural texture sounds. Our research is embedded within the Metaverse 1 European project (2008-2011), where our models are contributting as low level building blocks within a semi-automated soundscape generation system.

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Report of the National Advisory Committee on Palliative Care It is anticipated that the need for palliative care services will increase in coming years. Population projections indicate that between 1996 and 2031 the population aged 65 years and over is expected to more than double. Currently, over 95% of all patients availing of palliative care services suffer from cancer. The number of people dying from cancer is expected to rise in future years, due to the ageing population. Click here to download the document (PDF, 1mb)

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Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic models that are well adapted to many tasks in bioinformatics, for example, for predicting the occurrence of specific motifs in biological sequences. MAMOT is a command-line program for Unix-like operating systems, including MacOS X, that we developed to allow scientists to apply HMMs more easily in their research. One can define the architecture and initial parameters of the model in a text file and then use MAMOT for parameter optimization on example data, decoding (like predicting motif occurrence in sequences) and the production of stochastic sequences generated according to the probabilistic model. Two examples for which models are provided are coiled-coil domains in protein sequences and protein binding sites in DNA. A wealth of useful features include the use of pseudocounts, state tying and fixing of selected parameters in learning, and the inclusion of prior probabilities in decoding. AVAILABILITY: MAMOT is implemented in C++, and is distributed under the GNU General Public Licence (GPL). The software, documentation, and example model files can be found at http://bcf.isb-sib.ch/mamot

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The Millennium Declaration (2000) set as one of its targets a substantial reduction in child mortality. This paper studies whether the massive increase in development aid can account for part of the reduction in child mortality observed in developing countries since the year 2000. To do so, we analyze a panel of more than 130 developing countries over the 2000-2008 period. We use the time trend evolution of aid to identify an exogenous source of variation. Total aid has had no statistically significant effect on child mortality. However, a disaggregate analysis identifies certain sectors of aid that have had a significant impact. The effects have been larger in high mortality countries, including Sub-Saharan Africa. Projections based on our estimates strongly support the concern that most countries in that region will miss the Millennium Goals target on child mortality.