Optimal Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods using indirect inference applied to biological process models

This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.

Inhibition of the JAK2/STAT3 pathway in ovarian cancer results in the loss of cancer stem cell-like characteristics and a reduced tumor burden

Background Current treatment of ovarian cancer patients with chemotherapy leaves behind a residual tumor which results in recurrent ovarian cancer within a short time frame. We have previously demonstrated that a single short-term treatment of ovarian cancer cells with chemotherapy in vitro resulted in a cancer stem cell (CSC)-like enriched residual population which generated significantly greater tumor burden compared to the tumor burden generated by control untreated cells. In this report we looked at the mechanisms of the enrichment of CSC-like residual cells in response to paclitaxel treatment. Methods The mechanism of survival of paclitaxel-treated residual cells at a growth inhibitory concentration of 50% (GI50) was determined on isolated tumor cells from the ascites of recurrent ovarian cancer patients and HEY ovarian cancer cell line by in vitro assays and in a mouse xenograft model. Results Treatment of isolated tumor cells from the ascites of ovarian cancer patients and HEY ovarian cancer cell line with paclitaxel resulted in a CSC-like residual population which coincided with the activation of Janus activated kinase 2 (JAK2) and signal transducer and activation of transcription 3 (STAT3) pathway in paclitaxel surviving cells. Both paclitaxel-induced JAK2/STAT3 activation and CSC-like characteristics were inhibited by a low dose JAK2-specific small molecule inhibitor CYT387 (1 μM) in vitro. Subsequent, in vivo transplantation of paclitaxel and CYT387-treated HEY cells in mice resulted in a significantly reduced tumor burden compared to that seen with paclitaxel only-treated transplanted cells. In vitro analysis of tumor xenografts at protein and mRNA levels demonstrated a loss of CSC-like markers and CA125 expression in paclitaxel and CYT387-treated cell-derived xenografts, compared to paclitaxel only-treated cell-derived xenografts. These results were consistent with significantly reduced activation of JAK2 and STAT3 in paclitaxel and CYT387-treated cell-derived xenografts compared to paclitaxel only-treated cell derived xenografts. Conclusions This proof of principle study demonstrates that inhibition of the JAK2/STAT3 pathway by the addition of CYT387 suppresses the ‘stemness’ profile in chemotherapy-treated residual cells in vitro, which is replicated in vivo, leading to a reduced tumor burden. These findings have important implications for ovarian cancer patients who are treated with taxane and/or platinum-based therapies. Keywords: Ovarian carcinoma, Cancer stem cell, Metastasis, Ascites, Chemoresistance, Recurrence, JAK2/STAT3 pathway

Treatment with the vascular disruptive agent OXi4503 induces an immediate and widespread epithelial to mesenchymal transition in the surviving tumor

Epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT) is considered an important mechanism in tumor resistance to drug treatments; however, in vivo observation of this process has been limited. In this study we demonstrated an immediate and widespread EMT involving all surviving tumor cells following treatment of a mouse model of colorectal liver metastases with the vascular disruptive agent OXi4503. EMT was characterized by significant downregulation of E-cadherin, relocation and nuclear accumulation of b-catenin as well as significant upregulation of ZEB1 and vimentin. Concomitantly, significant temporal upregulation in hypoxia and the pro-angiogenic growth factors hypoxia-inducible factor 1-alpha, hepatocyte growth factor, vascular endothelial growth factor and transforming growth factor-beta were seen within the surviving tumor. The process of EMT was transient and by 5 days after treatment tumor cell reversion to epithelial morphology was evident. This reversal, termed mesenchymal to epithelial transition (MET) is a process implicated in the development of new metastases but has not been observed in vivo histologically. Similar EMT changes were observed in response to other antitumor treatments including chemotherapy, thermal ablation, and antiangiogenic treatments in our mouse colorectal metastasis model and in a murine orthotopic breast cancer model after OXi4503 treatment. These results suggest that EMT may be an early mechanism adopted by tumors in response to injury and hypoxic stress, such that inhibition of EMT in combination with other therapies could play a significant role in future cancer therapy.

Late Pleistocene stratigraphy of IODP Site U1396 and compiled chronology offshore of south and south west Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

Marine sediments around volcanic islands contain an archive of volcaniclastic deposits, which can be used to reconstruct the volcanic history of an area. Such records hold many advantages over often incomplete terrestrial datasets. This includes the potential for precise and continuous dating of intervening sediment packages, which allow a correlatable and temporally-constrained stratigraphic framework to be constructed across multiple marine sediment cores. Here, we discuss a marine record of eruptive and mass-wasting events spanning ~250 ka offshore of Montserrat, using new data from IODP Expedition 340, as well as previously collected cores. By using a combination of high-resolution oxygen isotope stratigraphy, AMS radiocarbon dating, biostratigraphy of foraminifera and calcareous nannofossils and clast componentry, we identify five major events at Soufriere Hills volcano since 250 ka. Lateral correlation of these events across sediment cores collected offshore of the south and south west of Montserrat, have improved our understanding of the timing, extent and associations between events in this area. Correlations reveal that powerful and potentially erosive density-currents travelled at least 33 km offshore, and demonstrate that marine deposits, produced by eruption-fed and mass-wasting events on volcanic islands, are heterogeneous in their spatial distribution. Thus, multiple drilling/coring sites are needed to reconstruct the full chronostratigraphy of volcanic islands. This multidisciplinary study will be vital to interpreting the chaotic records of submarine landslides at other sites drilled during Expedition 340 and provides a framework that can be applied to the stratigraphic analysis of sediments surrounding other volcanic islands.

Drosophila 3′ UTRs are more complex than protein-coding sequences

The 3′ UTRs of eukaryotic genes participate in a variety of post-transcriptional (and some transcriptional) regulatory interactions. Some of these interactions are well characterised, but an undetermined number remain to be discovered. While some regulatory sequences in 3′ UTRs may be conserved over long evolutionary time scales, others may have only ephemeral functional significance as regulatory profiles respond to changing selective pressures. Here we propose a sensitive segmentation methodology for investigating patterns of composition and conservation in 3′ UTRs based on comparison of closely related species. We describe encodings of pairwise and three-way alignments integrating information about conservation, GC content and transition/transversion ratios and apply the method to three closely related Drosophila species: D. melanogaster, D. simulans and D. yakuba. Incorporating multiple data types greatly increased the number of segment classes identified compared to similar methods based on conservation or GC content alone. We propose that the number of segments and number of types of segment identified by the method can be used as proxies for functional complexity. Our main finding is that the number of segments and segment classes identified in 3′ UTRs is greater than in the same length of protein-coding sequence, suggesting greater functional complexity in 3′ UTRs. There is thus a need for sustained and extensive efforts by bioinformaticians to delineate functional elements in this important genomic fraction. C code, data and results are available upon request.

Consumers persepctive on pharmacists integration into private primary healthcare clinics in Malaysia

Background: Pharmacists are considered medication experts but are underutilised mainly at the periphery of the primary healthcare team. General medical practitioners (GPs) in Malaysian private healthcare clinics are granted rights to prescribe and dispense medications, thus furhter limiting pharmacists involvement in ensuring safe use of medicines. The integration of pharmacist into private primary healthcare clinics has the potential to reduce medication-relation problems. Objective: To explore the views of consumers on the integration of pharmacists within private primary healthcare clinics in Malaysia. Method: A purposive sample of healthcare consumers in Selangor and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia were invited to participate in focus groups and semi-structured interviews. Sessions were audio recorded and transcribed verbatim and thematically analysed using NVivo 10. Results: A total of 24 healthcare consumers particpated in two focus groups and six semi-structured interviews. Four major themes were identified: (1) Pharmacists role viewed mainly as supplying medications, (2) Readiness to accept pharmacists in private healthcare clinics, (3) Willingness to pay for pharmacy services, and (4) Concerns about GPs resistance to pharmacist integration. Consumers felt that a pharmacist integrated into private prumary healthcare clinics could offer potential benefits such as counter-checking prescriptions to ensure correct medication is supplied and counselling consumers on their medications and the potential side effects. The potential to increase in costs to consumers and GPs reluctance were perceived as barriers to integration. Conclusion: This study provides insights into consumers perspectives on the roles of pharmacists within private primary healthcare clinics in Malaysia. Consumers generally supported pharmacist integration into private primary healthcare clinics. However, for pharmacists to expand their capacity in providing integrated and collaborative primary care services to consumers, barriers to pharmacist integration need to be addressed.

Hyperinsulinemia down-regulates TLR4 expression in the mammalian heart

Toll-like receptors (TLR) are key regulators of innate immune and inflammatory responses and their activation is linked to impaired glucose metabolism during metabolic disease. Determination of whether TLR4 signaling can be activated in the heart by insulin may shed light on the pathogenesis of diabetic cardiomyopathy, a process that is often complicated by obesity and insulin resistance. The aim of the current study was to determine if supraphysiological insulin concentrations alter the expression of TLR4, markers of TLR4 signaling and glucose transporters (GLUTs) in the heart. Firstly, the effect of insulin on TLR4 protein expression was investigated in vitro in isolated rat cardiac myocytes. Secondly, protein expression of TLR4, the pro-inflammatory cytokines interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) suppressor of cytokine signaling 3 (SOCS3) and GLUTs (1, 4, 8, 12) were examined in the equine ventricular myocardium following a prolonged, euglycemic, hyperinsulinemic clamp. Down-regulation of TLR4 protein content in rat cardiac myocytes was observed after incubation with a supraphysiologic concentration of insulin as well as in the equine myocardium after prolonged insulin infusion. Further, cardiac TLR4 expression was negatively correlated with serum insulin concentration. Markers of cardiac TLR4 signaling and GLUT expression were not affected by hyperinsulinemia and concomitant TLR4 down-regulation. Since TLRs are major determinants of the inflammatory response, our findings suggest that insulin infusion exerts an anti-inflammatory effect in the hearts of non-obese individuals. Understanding the regulation of cardiac TLR4 signaling during metabolic dysfunction will facilitate improved management of cardiac sequela to metabolic syndrome and diabetes.

The impact of prolonged hyperinsulinaemia on glucose transport in equine skeletal muscle and digital lamellae

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY An increased incidence of metabolic disease in horses has led to heightened recognition of the pathological consequences of insulin resistance (IR). Laminitis, failure of the weight-bearing digital lamellae, is an important consequence. Altered trafficking of specialised glucose transporters (GLUTs) responsible for glucose uptake, are central to the dysregulation of glucose metabolism and may play a role in laminitis pathophysiology. OBJECTIVES We hypothesised that prolonged hyperinsulinaemia alters the regulation of glucose transport in insulin-sensitive tissue and digital lamellae. Our objectives were to compare the relative protein expression of major GLUT isoforms in striated muscle and digital lamellae in healthy horses and during hyperinsulinaemia. STUDY DESIGN Randomised, controlled study. METHODS Prolonged hyperinsulinaemia and lamellar damage were induced by a prolonged-euglycaemic hyperinsulinaemic clamp (p-EHC) or a prolonged-glucose infusion (p-GI) and results were compared to electrolyte-treated controls. GLUT protein expression was examined with immunoblotting. RESULTS Lamellar tissue contained more GLUT1 protein than skeletal muscle (p = 0.002) and less GLUT4 than the heart (p = 0.037). During marked hyperinsulinaemia and acute laminitis (induced by the p-EHC), GLUT1 protein expression was decreased in skeletal muscle (p = 0.029) but unchanged in the lamellae, while novel GLUTs (8; 12) were increased in the lamellae (p = 0.03), but not skeletal muscle. However, moderate hyperinsulinaemia and subclinical laminitis (induced by the p-GI) did not cause differential GLUT protein expression in the lamellae vs. control horses. CONCLUSIONS The results suggest that lamellar tissue functions independently of insulin and that IR may not be an essential component of laminitis aetiology. Marked differences in GLUT expression exist between insulin-sensitive and insulin-independent tissues during metabolic dysfunction in horses. The different expression profiles of novel GLUTs during acute and subclinical laminitis may be important to disease pathophysiology and require further investigation.

A review of modern computational algorithms for Bayesian optimal design

Bayesian experimental design is a fast growing area of research with many real-world applications. As computational power has increased over the years, so has the development of simulation-based design methods, which involve a number of algorithms, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, sequential Monte Carlo and approximate Bayes methods, facilitating more complex design problems to be solved. The Bayesian framework provides a unified approach for incorporating prior information and/or uncertainties regarding the statistical model with a utility function which describes the experimental aims. In this paper, we provide a general overview on the concepts involved in Bayesian experimental design, and focus on describing some of the more commonly used Bayesian utility functions and methods for their estimation, as well as a number of algorithms that are used to search over the design space to find the Bayesian optimal design. We also discuss other computational strategies for further research in Bayesian optimal design.

The relationship between N2O, NO, and N2 fluxes from fertilized and irrigated dryland soils of the Aral Sea Basin, Uzbekistan

Microbial respiratory reduction of nitrous oxide (N2O) to dinitrogen (N2) via denitrification plays a key role within the global N-cycle since it is the most important process for converting reactive nitrogen back into inert molecular N2. However, due to methodological constraints, we still lack a comprehensive, quantitative understanding of denitrification rates and controlling factors across various ecosystems. We investigated N2, N2O and NO emissions from irrigated cotton fields within the Aral Sera Basin using the He/O2 atmosphere gas flow soil core technique and an incubation assay. NH4NO3 fertilizer, equivalent to 75 kg ha−1 and irrigation water, adjusting the water holding capacity to 70, 100 and 130% were applied to the incubation vessels to assess its influence on gaseous N emissions. Under soil conditions as they are naturally found after concomitant irrigation and fertilization, denitrification was the dominant process and N2 the main end product of denitrification. The mean ratios of N2/N2O emissions increased with increasing soil moisture content. N2 emissions exceeded N2O emissions by a factor of 5 ± 2 at 70% soil water holding capacity (WHC) and a factor of 55 ± 27 at 130% WHC. The mean ratios of N2O/NO emissions varied between 1.5 ± 0.4 (70% WHC) and 644 ± 108 (130% WHC). The magnitude of N2 emissions for irrigated cotton was estimated to be in the range of 24 ± 9 to 175 ± 65 kg-N ha−1season−1, while emissions of NO were only of minor importance (between 0.1 to 0.7 kg-N ha−1 season−1). The findings demonstrate that for irrigated dryland soils in the Aral Sera Basin, denitrification is a major pathway of N-loss and that substantial amounts of N-fertilizer are lost as N2 to the atmosphere for irrigated dryland soils.

Methane and nitrous oxide fluxes in annual and perennial land-use systems of the irrigated areas in the Aral Sea Basin

Land use and agricultural practices can result in important contributions to the global source strength of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). However, knowledge of gas flux from irrigated agriculture is very limited. From April 2005 to October 2006, a study was conducted in the Aral Sea Basin, Uzbekistan, to quantify and compare emissions of N2O and CH4 in various annual and perennial land-use systems: irrigated cotton, winter wheat and rice crops, a poplar plantation and a natural Tugai (floodplain) forest. In the annual systems, average N2O emissions ranged from 10 to 150 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1 with highest N2O emissions in the cotton fields, covering a similar range of previous studies from irrigated cropping systems. Emission factors (uncorrected for background emission), used to determine the fertilizer-induced N2O emission as a percentage of N fertilizer applied, ranged from 0.2% to 2.6%. Seasonal variations in N2O emissions were principally controlled by fertilization and irrigation management. Pulses of N2O emissions occurred after concomitant N-fertilizer application and irrigation. The unfertilized poplar plantation showed high N2O emissions over the entire study period (30 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1), whereas only negligible fluxes of N2O (<2 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1) occurred in the Tugai. Significant CH4 fluxes only were determined from the flooded rice field: Fluxes were low with mean flux rates of 32 mg CH4 m−2 day−1 and a low seasonal total of 35.2 kg CH4 ha−1. The global warming potential (GWP) of the N2O and CH4 fluxes was highest under rice and cotton, with seasonal changes between 500 and 3000 kg CO2 eq. ha−1. The biennial cotton–wheat–rice crop rotation commonly practiced in the region would average a GWP of 2500 kg CO2 eq. ha−1 yr−1. The analyses point out opportunities for reducing the GWP of these irrigated agricultural systems by (i) optimization of fertilization and irrigation practices and (ii) conversion of annual cropping systems into perennial forest plantations, especially on less profitable, marginal lands.

Optimal Irrigation and N-fertilizer Management for Sustainable Winter Wheat Production in Khorezm, Uzbekistan

The efficiency of the nitrogen (N) application rates 0, 120, 180 and 240 kg N ha−1 in combination with low or medium water levels in the cultivation of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cv. Kupava was studied for the 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 growing seasons in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan. The results show an impact of the initial soil Nmin (NO3-N + NH4-N) levels measured at wheat seeding on the N fertilizer rates applied. When the Nmin content in the 0–50 cm soil layer was lower than 10 mg kg−1 during wheat seeding in 2005, the N rate of 180 kg ha−1 was found to be the most effective for achieving high grain yields of high quality. With a higher Nmin content of about 30 mg kg−1 as was the case in the 2006 season, 120 kg N ha−1 was determined as being the technical and economical optimum. The temporal course of N2O emissions of winter wheat cultivation for the two water-level studies shows that emissions were strongly influenced by irrigation and N-fertilization. Extremely high emissions were measured immediately after fertilizer application events that were combined with irrigation events. Given the high impact of N-fertilizer and irrigation-water management on N2O emissions, it can be concluded that present N-management practices should be modified to mitigate emissions of N2O and to achieve higher fertilizer use efficiency.

Global sequence variation in the histidine-rich proteins 2 and 3 of Plasmodium falciparum: implications for the performance of malaria rapid diagnostic tests

Background Accurate diagnosis is essential for prompt and appropriate treatment of malaria. While rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) offer great potential to improve malaria diagnosis, the sensitivity of RDTs has been reported to be highly variable. One possible factor contributing to variable test performance is the diversity of parasite antigens. This is of particular concern for Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2)-detecting RDTs since PfHRP2 has been reported to be highly variable in isolates of the Asia-Pacific region. Methods The pfhrp2 exon 2 fragment from 458 isolates of P. falciparum collected from 38 countries was amplified and sequenced. For a subset of 80 isolates, the exon 2 fragment of histidine-rich protein 3 (pfhrp3) was also amplified and sequenced. DNA sequence and statistical analysis of the variation observed in these genes was conducted. The potential impact of the pfhrp2 variation on RDT detection rates was examined by analysing the relationship between sequence characteristics of this gene and the results of the WHO product testing of malaria RDTs: Round 1 (2008), for 34 PfHRP2-detecting RDTs. Results Sequence analysis revealed extensive variations in the number and arrangement of various repeats encoded by the genes in parasite populations world-wide. However, no statistically robust correlation between gene structure and RDT detection rate for P. falciparum parasites at 200 parasites per microlitre was identified. Conclusions The results suggest that despite extreme sequence variation, diversity of PfHRP2 does not appear to be a major cause of RDT sensitivity variation.

Stop and revive? The effectiveness of nap and active rest breaks for reducing driver sleepiness

Objectives The purpose for this study was to determine the relative benefit of nap and active rest breaks for reducing driver sleepiness. Methods Participants were 20 healthy young adults (20-25 years), including 8 males and 12 females. A counterbalanced within-subjects design was used such that each participant completed both conditions on separate occasions, a week apart. The effects of the countermeasures were evaluated by established physiological (EEG theta and alpha absolute power), subjective (Karolinska Sleepiness Scale), and driving performance measures (Hazard Perception Task). Participants woke at 5am, and undertook a simulated driving task for two hours; each participant then had either a 15-minute nap opportunity or a 15-minute active rest break that included 10 minutes of brisk walking, followed by another hour of simulated driving. Results The nap break reduced EEG theta and alpha absolute power and eventually reduced subjective sleepiness levels. In contrast, the active rest break did not reduce EEG theta and alpha absolute power levels with the power levels eventually increasing. An immediate reduction of subjective sleepiness was observed, with subjective sleepiness increasing during the final hour of simulated driving. No difference was found between the two breaks for hazard perception performance. Conclusions Only the nap break produced a significant reduction in physiological sleepiness. The immediate reductions of subjective sleepiness following the active rest break could leave drivers with erroneous perceptions of their sleepiness, particularly as physiological sleepiness continued to increase after the break.