Slow deterministic vector rogue waves

For an erbium-doped fiber laser mode-locked by carbon nanotubes, we demonstrate experimentally and theoretically a new type of the vector rogue waves emerging as a result of the chaotic evolution of the trajectories between two orthogonal states of polarization on the Poincare sphere. In terms of fluctuation induced phenomena, by tuning polarization controller for the pump wave and in-cavity polarization controller, we are able to control the Kramers time, i.e. the residence time of the trajectory in vicinity of each orthogonal state of polarization, and so can cause the rare events satisfying rogue wave criteria and having the form of transitions from the state with the long residence time to the state with a short residence time.

Essays in Macroeconomics

My dissertation consists of three self-contained essays on macroeconomics. Chapter 2 "Churning, firm inter-connectivity, and labor market fluctuations'' studies the implications of firm inter-connectivity and irreversibility of inter-firm cooperation relationships on the business cycle. Chapter 3 "Inter-sector matching efficiency and sectoral comovement'' examines the comovement of sectoral labor markets when there is search friction in the inter-firm matching market. Chapter 4 "Lumpy investment and endogenous investment price'' (Joint work with Linxi Chen) studies the endogenous fluctuation of investment price induced by search friction in the investment goods market and partial irreversibility of capital adjustment. Each of the essays investigates the implication of market frictions, such as search friction and partial irreversibility, to the business cycle from a different perspective.

Hydrological Response of East China to the Variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon

Copyright © 2016 Fuxing Li et al.The sensitivity of hydrologic variables in East China, that is, runoff, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture to the fluctuation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), is evaluated by the Mann-Kendall correlation analysis on a spatial resolution of 1/4° in the period of 1952-2012. The results indicate remarkable spatial disparities in the correlation between the hydrologic variables and EASM. The regions in East China susceptible to hydrological change due to EASM fluctuation are identified. When the standardized anomaly of intensity index of EASM (EASMI) is above 1.00, the runoff of Haihe basin has increased by 49% on average, especially in the suburb of Beijing and Hebei province where the runoff has increased up to 105%. In contrast, the runoff in the basins of Haihe and Yellow River has decreased by about 27% and 17%, respectively, when the standardized anomaly of EASMI is below -1.00, which has brought severe drought to the areas since mid-1970s. The study can be beneficial for national or watershed agencies developing adaptive water management strategies in the face of global climate change.

Path Optimization in Free Energy Calculations

Free energy calculations are a computational method for determining thermodynamic quantities, such as free energies of binding, via simulation.

Currently, due to computational and algorithmic limitations, free energy calculations are limited in scope.

In this work, we propose two methods for improving the efficiency of free energy calculations.

First, we expand the state space of alchemical intermediates, and show that this expansion enables us to calculate free energies along lower variance paths.

We use Q-learning, a reinforcement learning technique, to discover and optimize paths at low computational cost.

Second, we reduce the cost of sampling along a given path by using sequential Monte Carlo samplers.

We develop a new free energy estimator, pCrooks (pairwise Crooks), a variant on the Crooks fluctuation theorem (CFT), which enables decomposition of the variance of the free energy estimate for discrete paths, while retaining beneficial characteristics of CFT.

Combining these two advancements, we show that for some test models, optimal expanded-space paths have a nearly 80% reduction in variance relative to the standard path.

Additionally, our free energy estimator converges at a more consistent rate and on average 1.8 times faster when we enable path searching, even when the cost of path discovery and refinement is considered.

Chemistry and stable isotope record of sediment core GeoB4905-4

Evidence of rapid climatic oscillations like those observed in the Greenland ice cores and sediments from high latitudes of the northern Atlantic have been recognized in the pulses of terrigenous material to continental margin sediments off Cameroon. Fe/Ca ratios used as a parameter to quantify the relative proportions of terrigenous fluxes versus marine carbonate monitor the variability of the west African monsoon. They reveal the history of abrupt changes in precipitation over western and central Africa during the past 52 kyr. These rapid changes are particularly pronounced during the last glacial period and occur at timescales of a few thousand years. Stable oxygen isotope (delta18O) records of Globigerinoides ruber (pink) show high negative values reflecting periods of high monsoon precipitation. The Fe/Ca pattern is very similar to the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles from the Greenland ice cores. The good correspondence between the warm interstadials of the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles from the GISP2 ice core records and the high pulses of Fe/Ca sedimentation in our core suggest a strong teleconnection between the low-latitude African climate and the high-latitude northern hemisphere climate oscillations during the last glacial. This climatic link is probably vested in the west African monsoonal fluctuation that alters tropical sea surface temperatures, thermohaline circulations and in turn net export of heat from the south to the north Atlantic, coupled with the variability of the low-latitude southeast trade winds.

The impact of fluctuating light on the dinoflagellate Prorocentrum micans depends on NO3- and CO2 availability

Increasing atmospheric pCO2 and its dissolution into oceans leads to ocean acidification and warming, which reduces the thickness of upper mixing layer (UML) and upward nutrient supply from deeper layers. These events may alter the nutritional conditions and the light regime to which primary producers are exposed in the UML. In order to better understand the physiology behind the responses to the concomitant climate changes factors, we examined the impact of light fluctuation on the dinoflagellate Prorocentrum micans grown at low (1 µmol/L) or high (800 µmol/L) [NO3(-)] and at high (1000 µatm) or low (390 µatm, ambient) pCO2. The light regimes to which the algal cells were subjected were (1) constant light at a photon flux density (PFD) of either 100 (C100) or 500 (C500) µmol/m**2/s or (2) fluctuating light between 100 or 500 µmol photons/m**2/s with a frequency of either 15 (F15) or 60 (F60) min. Under continuous light, the initial portion of the light phase required the concomitant presence of high CO2 and NO3(-) concentrations for maximum growth. After exposure to light for 3h, high CO2 exerted a negative effect on growth and effective quantum yield of photosystem II (F'(v)/F'(m)). Fluctuating light ameliorated growth in the first period of illumination. In the second 3h of treatment, higher frequency (F15) of fluctuations afforded high growth rates, whereas the F60 treatment had detrimental consequences, especially when NO3(-) concentration was lower. F'(v)/F'(m) respondent differently from growth to fluctuating light: the fluorescence yield was always lower than at continuous light at 100 µmol/m**2/s, and always higher at 500 µmol/m**2/s. Our data show that the impact of atmospheric pCO2 increase on primary production of dinoflagellate depends on the availability of nitrate and the irradiance (intensity and the frequency of irradiance fluctuations) to which the cells are exposed. The impact of global change on oceanic primary producers would therefore be different in waters with different chemical and physical (mixing) properties.

Stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios of the planktonic foraminifera Pulleniatina obliquiloculata and the benthic foraminifera Uvigerina excellens of ODP Site 117-723 in the Arabian Sea (Table 1)

Site 723 is located in a water depth of 808 m at the center of the oxygen minimum zone and the middle part of the main thermocline on the Oman Margin. Oxygen isotope curves of planktonic delta18OP and benthic delta18OB can be traced back continuously to Stage 23 with high resolution measurements. A tentative correlation to Stage 53 has been tried using oxygen isotope stratigraphy. The amplitudes of the fluctuations of the benthic delta18OB curve are small, compared with the planktonic delta18OP curve. The delays of benthic oxygen isotopes delta18OB related to the planktonic delta18OP appear in the transgressive stages. Carbon isotopes of benthic delta13CB and planktonic delta13CP generally show an inverse correlation with oxygen isotope values delta18OB and delta18OB and delta18OP, however, the changes of delta13C are more gradual than those of delta18O during transgressive stages in spite of the synchronized changes of delta13C with those of delta18O during regressive stages. The difference of oxygen isotope between benthic and planktonic foraminifers represents the degree of pushing up the thermocline by upwelling, and the difference of carbon isotope represents the relative amount of upwelling Sigma[CO2] to the biological uptake in the surface water. These isotopic differences can be used as indicators of upwelling and show strong upwelling in the interglacial and weak upwelling in the glacial stages. The organic carbon content is correlated with the isotopic upwelling indicators, and higher content is correlated with the isotopic upwelling indicators and higher content appears in the interglacial stages. The calculated rate of sedimentation based on oxygen isotope stratigraphy in glacial stages is significantly high, two to four times that of interglacial stages, and the absolute flux of fluvial sediments with variability of lithofacies increased in the glacial stage. The present glacial-interglacial cycle with the fluctuation of upwelling relating to the southwest monsoon can be traced back to Stage 8, 250 ka. From Stage 8 to 12, 250-450 ka, the upwelling indicator of oxygen isotope difference did not show such distinct cyclicity. For Stages 12-15, 450-600 ka, the upwelling can be estimated as strong as in interglacial stage of the present cycles, with slightly weak upwelling in the glacial stage. This upwelling and climate can be traced back to the late Pliocene. The strongest upwelling can be estimated in the Pliocene-Pleistocene time by the isotopic indicators and the high organic carbon content.

Sea-surface reconstructions of the western Pacific Ocean during the last 5.3 million years

The late Neogene was a time of cryosphere development in the northern hemisphere. The present study was carried out to estimate the sea surface temperature (SST) change during this period based on the quantitative planktonic foraminiferal data of 8 DSDP sites in the western Pacific. Target factor analysis has been applied to the conventional transfer function approach to overcome the no-analog conditions caused by evolutionary faunal changes. By applying this technique through a combination of time-slice and time-series studies, the SST history of the last 5.3 Ma has been reconstructed for the low latitude western Pacific. Although the present data set is close to the statistical limits of factor analysis, the clear presence of sensible variations in individual SST time-series suggests the feasibility and reliability of this method in paleoceanographic studies. The estimated SST curves display the general trend of the temperature fluctuations and reveal three major cool periods in the late Neogene, i.e. the early Pliocene (4.7 3.5 Ma), the late Pliocene (3.1-2.7 Ma), and the latest Pliocene to early Pleistocene (2.2-1.0 Ma). Cool events are reflected in the increase of seasonality and meridional SST gradient in the subtropical area. The latest Pliocene to early Pleistocene cooling is most important in the late Neogene climatic evolution. It differs from the previous cool events in its irreversible, steplike change in SST, which established the glacial climate characteristic of the late Pleistocene. The winter and summer SST decreased by 3.3-5.4°C and 1.0 2.1C in the subtropics, by 0.9°C and 0.6C in the equatorial region, and showed little or no cooling in the tropics. Moreover, this cooling event occurred as a gradual SST decrease during 2.2 1.0 Ma at the warmer subtropical sites, while that at cooler subtropical site was an abrupt SST drop at 2.2 Ma. In contrast, equatorial and tropical western Pacific experienced only minor SST change in the entire late Neogene. In general, subtropics was much more sensitive to climatic forcing than tropics and the cooling events were most extensive in the cooler subtropics. The early Pliocene cool periods can be correlated to the Antarctic ice volume fluctuation, and the latest Pliocene early Pleistocene cooling reflects the climatic evolution during the cryosphere development of the northern hemisphere.

Presence and possible cause of periodicities in 20th-century extreme coastal surge: Belfast Harbour, Northern Ireland.

Identifying 20th-century periodic coastal surge variation is strategic for the 21st-century coastal surge estimates, as surge periodicities may amplify/reduce future MSL enhanced surge forecasts. Extreme coastal surge data from Belfast Harbour (UK) tide gauges are available for 1901–2010 and provide the potential for decadal-plus periodic coastal surge analysis. Annual extreme surge-elevation distributions (sampled every 10-min) are analysed using PCA and cluster analysis to decompose variation within- and between-years to assess similarity of years in terms of Surge Climate Types, and to establish significance of any transitions in Type occurrence over time using non-parametric Markov analysis. Annual extreme surge variation is shown to be periodically organised across the 20th century. Extreme surge magnitude and distribution show a number of significant cyclonic induced multi-annual (2, 3, 5 & 6 years) cycles, as well as dominant multi-decadal (15–25 years) cycles of variation superimposed on an 80 year fluctuation in atmospheric–oceanic variation across the North Atlantic (relative to NAO/AMO interaction). The top 30 extreme surge events show some relationship with NAO per se, given that 80% are associated with westerly dominant atmospheric flows (+ NAO), but there are 20% of the events associated with blocking air massess (− NAO). Although 20% of the top 30 ranked positive surges occurred within the last twenty years, there is no unequivocal evidence of recent acceleration in extreme surge magnitude related to other than the scale of natural periodic variation.

Optimized operations of Distributed Renewable Energy Sources in Smart Grid

The renewable energy sources (RES) will play a vital role in the future power needs in view of the increasing demand of electrical energy and depletion of fossil fuel with its environmental impact. The main constraints of renewable energy (RE) generation are high capital investment, fluctuation in generation and requirement of vast land area. Distributed RE generation on roof top of buildings will overcome these issues to some extent. Any system will be feasible only if it is economically viable and reliable. Economic viability depends on the availability of RE and requirement of energy in specific locations. This work is directed to examine the economic viability of the system at desired location and demand.

Life expectancy: recent trends in older ages

Over the last 30 years there has been an upward trend in life expectancy at older ages in England. Figures 1 and 2 show life expectancy in England at ages 65, 75, 85 and 95 from 1981 to 2014. The data points shaded red in Figures 1 and 2 indicate where life expectancy in that year was lower than in the previous year, showing that there is some fluctuation in life expectancy at these age groups, although the overall trend has been upwards. Male life expectancy was lower in 2012 than 2011 at ages 85 and 95, and at ages 65 and 75 it was the same in both years. There were no further falls in 2013. This flattening of the recent trend has not continued in 2014, which saw a rise in male life expectancy at all four ages. Male life expectancy increased by 0.3 years at age 65 and 0.2 years at ages 75, 85 and 95. For females, life expectancy at all four ages was lower in 2012 than 2011. At age 65, that was the first fall since 1995 and at age 75 the first fall since 2003. At ages 85 and 95, there have been frequent occasions when life expectancy in a year was lower than in the previous year. Between 2012 and 2013, there were no further falls in life expectancy at any of these ages. Between 2013 and 2014, there was an increase in female life expectancy at all four ages. Female life expectancy increased by 0.3 years at age 65 and by 0.2 years at ages 75, 85 and 95.  

Prediction of Sudden Cardiac Arrest for Patients with Congestive Heart Failure

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-07

Diurnal and seasonal variations in the duration and depth of the longest dives in southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina): possible physiological and behavioural constraints

This study seeks to understand how the physiological constraints of diving may change on a daily and seasonal basis. Dive data were obtained from southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from South Georgia using satellite relay data loggers. We analysed the longest (95th percentile) dive durations as proxies for physiological dive limits. A strong, significant relationship existed between the duration of these dives and the time of day and week of year in which they were performed. The depth of the deepest dives also showed a significant, but far less consistent, relationship with local time of day and season. Changes in the duration of the longest dives occurred irrespective of their depth. Dives were longest in the morning (04:00-12:00 h) and shortest in the evening (16:00-00:00 h). The size of the fluctuation varied among animals from 4.0 to 20.0 min. The daily pattern in dive depth was phase-shifted in relation to the diurnal rhythm in dive duration. Dives were deeper at midday and shallower around midnight. Greater daily changes in duration occurred in seals feeding in the open ocean than in those foraging on the continental shelf. The seasonal peak in the duration of the longest dives coincided with austral midwinter. The size of the increase in dive duration from autumn/spring to winter ranged from 11.5 to 30.0 min. Changes in depth of the longest dives were not consistently associated with particular times of year. The substantial diurnal and seasonal fluctuations in maximum dive duration may be a result of changes in the physiological capacity to remain submerged, in addition to temporal changes in the ecological constraints on dive behaviour. We speculate about the role of melatonin as a hormonal mediator of diving capability.

The Effects of High Steady State Auxin Levels on Root Cell Elongation in Brachypodium.

The long-standing Acid Growth Theory of plant cell elongation posits that auxin promotes cell elongation by stimulating cell wall acidification and thus expansin action. To date, the paucity of pertinent genetic materials has precluded thorough analysis of the importance of this concept in roots. The recent isolation of mutants of the model grass species Brachypodium distachyon with dramatically enhanced root cell elongation due to increased cellular auxin levels has allowed us to address this question. We found that the primary transcriptomic effect associated with elevated steady state auxin concentration in elongating root cells is upregulation of cell wall remodeling factors, notably expansins, while plant hormone signaling pathways maintain remarkable homeostasis. These changes are specifically accompanied by reduced cell wall arabinogalactan complexity but not by increased proton excretion. On the contrary, we observed a tendency for decreased rather than increased proton extrusion from root elongation zones with higher cellular auxin levels. Moreover, similar to Brachypodium, root cell elongation is, in general, robustly buffered against external pH fluctuation in Arabidopsis thaliana However, forced acidification through artificial proton pump activation inhibits root cell elongation. Thus, the interplay between auxin, proton pump activation, and expansin action may be more flexible in roots than in shoots.

DIRECT NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF INCOMPRESSIBLE MULTIPHASE FLOW WITH PHASE CHANGE

Phase change problems arise in many practical applications such as air-conditioning and refrigeration, thermal energy storage systems and thermal management of electronic devices. The physical phenomenon in such applications are complex and are often difficult to be studied in detail with the help of only experimental techniques. The efforts to improve computational techniques for analyzing two-phase flow problems with phase change are therefore gaining momentum. The development of numerical methods for multiphase flow has been motivated generally by the need to account more accurately for (a) large topological changes such as phase breakup and merging, (b) sharp representation of the interface and its discontinuous properties and (c) accurate and mass conserving motion of the interface. In addition to these considerations, numerical simulation of multiphase flow with phase change introduces additional challenges related to discontinuities in the velocity and the temperature fields. Moreover, the velocity field is no longer divergence free. For phase change problems, the focus of developmental efforts has thus been on numerically attaining a proper conservation of energy across the interface in addition to the accurate treatment of fluxes of mass and momentum conservation as well as the associated interface advection. Among the initial efforts related to the simulation of bubble growth in film boiling applications the work in \cite{Welch1995} was based on the interface tracking method using a moving unstructured mesh. That study considered moderate interfacial deformations. A similar problem was subsequently studied using moving, boundary fitted grids \cite{Son1997}, again for regimes of relatively small topological changes. A hybrid interface tracking method with a moving interface grid overlapping a static Eulerian grid was developed \cite{Juric1998} for the computation of a range of phase change problems including, three-dimensional film boiling \cite{esmaeeli2004computations}, multimode two-dimensional pool boiling \cite{Esmaeeli2004} and film boiling on horizontal cylinders \cite{Esmaeeli2004a}. The handling of interface merging and pinch off however remains a challenge with methods that explicitly track the interface. As large topological changes are crucial for phase change problems, attention has turned in recent years to front capturing methods utilizing implicit interfaces that are more effective in treating complex interface deformations. The VOF (Volume of Fluid) method was adopted in \cite{Welch2000} to simulate the one-dimensional Stefan problem and the two-dimensional film boiling problem. The approach employed a specific model for mass transfer across the interface involving a mass source term within cells containing the interface. This VOF based approach was further coupled with the level set method in \cite{Son1998}, employing a smeared-out Heaviside function to avoid the numerical instability related to the source term. The coupled level set, volume of fluid method and the diffused interface approach was used for film boiling with water and R134a at the near critical pressure condition \cite{Tomar2005}. The effect of superheat and saturation pressure on the frequency of bubble formation were analyzed with this approach. The work in \cite{Gibou2007} used the ghost fluid and the level set methods for phase change simulations. A similar approach was adopted in \cite{Son2008} to study various boiling problems including three-dimensional film boiling on a horizontal cylinder, nucleate boiling in microcavity \cite{lee2010numerical} and flow boiling in a finned microchannel \cite{lee2012direct}. The work in \cite{tanguy2007level} also used the ghost fluid method and proposed an improved algorithm based on enforcing continuity and divergence-free condition for the extended velocity field. The work in \cite{sato2013sharp} employed a multiphase model based on volume fraction with interface sharpening scheme and derived a phase change model based on local interface area and mass flux. Among the front capturing methods, sharp interface methods have been found to be particularly effective both for implementing sharp jumps and for resolving the interfacial velocity field. However, sharp velocity jumps render the solution susceptible to erroneous oscillations in pressure and also lead to spurious interface velocities. To implement phase change, the work in \cite{Hardt2008} employed point mass source terms derived from a physical basis for the evaporating mass flux. To avoid numerical instability, the authors smeared the mass source by solving a pseudo time-step diffusion equation. This measure however led to mass conservation issues due to non-symmetric integration over the distributed mass source region. The problem of spurious pressure oscillations related to point mass sources was also investigated by \cite{Schlottke2008}. Although their method is based on the VOF, the large pressure peaks associated with sharp mass source was observed to be similar to that for the interface tracking method. Such spurious fluctuation in pressure are essentially undesirable because the effect is globally transmitted in incompressible flow. Hence, the pressure field formation due to phase change need to be implemented with greater accuracy than is reported in current literature. The accuracy of interface advection in the presence of interfacial mass flux (mass flux conservation) has been discussed in \cite{tanguy2007level,tanguy2014benchmarks}. The authors found that the method of extending one phase velocity to entire domain suggested by Nguyen et al. in \cite{nguyen2001boundary} suffers from a lack of mass flux conservation when the density difference is high. To improve the solution, the authors impose a divergence-free condition for the extended velocity field by solving a constant coefficient Poisson equation. The approach has shown good results with enclosed bubble or droplet but is not general for more complex flow and requires additional solution of the linear system of equations. In current thesis, an improved approach that addresses both the numerical oscillation of pressure and the spurious interface velocity field is presented by featuring (i) continuous velocity and density fields within a thin interfacial region and (ii) temporal velocity correction steps to avoid unphysical pressure source term. Also I propose a general (iii) mass flux projection correction for improved mass flux conservation. The pressure and the temperature gradient jump condition are treated sharply. A series of one-dimensional and two-dimensional problems are solved to verify the performance of the new algorithm. Two-dimensional and cylindrical film boiling problems are also demonstrated and show good qualitative agreement with the experimental observations and heat transfer correlations. Finally, a study on Taylor bubble flow with heat transfer and phase change in a small vertical tube in axisymmetric coordinates is carried out using the new multiphase, phase change method.