A conditional random field-based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multisite daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin

Downscaling to station-scale hydrologic variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) is usually necessary to assess the hydrologic impact of climate change. This work presents CRF-downscaling, a new probabilistic downscaling method that represents the daily precipitation sequence as a conditional random field (CRF). The conditional distribution of the precipitation sequence at a site, given the daily atmospheric (large-scale) variable sequence, is modeled as a linear chain CRF. CRFs do not make assumptions on independence of observations, which gives them flexibility in using high-dimensional feature vectors. Maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the model is performed using limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) optimization. Maximum a posteriori estimation is used to determine the most likely precipitation sequence for a given set of atmospheric input variables using the Viterbi algorithm. Direct classification of dry/wet days as well as precipitation amount is achieved within a single modeling framework. The model is used to project the future cumulative distribution function of precipitation. Uncertainty in precipitation prediction is addressed through a modified Viterbi algorithm that predicts the n most likely sequences. The model is applied for downscaling monsoon (June-September) daily precipitation at eight sites in the Mahanadi basin in Orissa, India, using the MIROC3.2 medium-resolution GCM. The predicted distributions at all sites show an increase in the number of wet days, and also an increase in wet day precipitation amounts. A comparison of current and future predicted probability density functions for daily precipitation shows a change in shape of the density function with decreasing probability of lower precipitation and increasing probability of higher precipitation.

Understanding the civic impact of journalism

The importance of journalism to civil society is constantly proclaimed, but empirical evidence on journalism's impact, and how this operates, is surprisingly thin. Indeed, there is confusion even about what is meant by the term “impact”. Meanwhile, the issue of the role of journalism is becoming increasingly urgent as a consequence of the rapid changes engulfing the news media, brought about by technological change and the flow-on effect to the traditional advertising-supported business model. Assessing the impact of journalism has recently been the topic of debate among practitioners and scholars particularly in the United States, where philanthropists have responded to the perceived crisis in investigative journalism by funding not-for-profit newsrooms, with resulting new pressures being placed on journalists and editors to quantify their impact on society. These recent attempts have so far failed to achieve clarity or a satisfactory conclusion, which is not surprising given the complex web of causation within which journalism operates. In this paper, the authors propose a stratified definition of journalistic impact and function. They propose a methodology for studying impact drawing on realistic evaluation—a theory-based approach developed primarily to assess large social programmes occurring in open systems. The authors argue this could allow a conceptual and methodological advance on the question of media impacts, leading to research capable of usefully informing responses at a time of worrying change.

Virtual Special Issue: “The impact of temperature on human health: new insights”

Ambient temperature is one of the basic parameters characterising human comfort: are we too hot, too cold, or just right? The impact of temperature goes beyond comfort: inadequate temperature and temperature variations have consequences on human health, as the increasing numbers of studies have demonstrated. The topic is of particular significance at the times when climate change shifts the traditional – as we know them- temperature zones, and brings much wider temperature variations. For these reasons the impact of temperature on health has been one of the most popular topics among the articles submitted and published in Science of the Total Environment over the last few years. This Virtual Special Issue compiles 18 articles published in our journal on this topic since 2012. It is worth briefly summarizing the rich scientific insights brought by these articles, as well as broader considerations, particularly those extending to management, discussed by the authors of the articles.

Impact of wildfires and floods on property values: A before and after analysis

One of the most evident casualties of a natural disaster is the property market. The private and social costs from such events run into millions of dollars. In this paper, we use a unique dataset to examine the impact on residential house prices affected by natural disasters using a hedonic property (HP) values approach. For this purpose, we use data before and after a wildfire and floods from Rockhampton in central Queensland, Australia. The data is unique because one suburb was affected by wildfires and another was affected by floods. For the analysis, three suburbs namely Frenchville, Park Avenue and Norman Gardens are used. Frenchville was significantly affected by wildfires in the latter part of 2009 and to a lesser extent in 2012, while Park Avenue was affected by floods at the end of 2010, January 2011–2013. Norman Gardens, which was relatively unaffected, is used as a control site. This enables us to examine the before and after effects on property values in the three suburbs. The results confirm that soon after a natural disaster property prices in affected areas decrease even though the large majority of individual houses remain unaffected. Furthermore, the results indicate that the largely unaffected suburb may gain immediately after a natural disaster but this gain may disappear if natural disasters continue to occur in the area/region due to the stigma created. The results have several important policy decision and welfare implications which are briefly discussed in the paper.

Denitrification losses from an intensively managed sub-tropical pasture: Impact of soil moisture on the partitioning of N2 and N2O emissions

Intensively managed pastures in subtropical Australia under dairy production are nitrogen (N) loaded agro-ecosystems, with an increased pool of N available for denitrification. The magnitude of denitrification losses and N2:N2O partitioning in these agro-ecosystems is largely unknown, representing a major uncertainty when estimating total N loss and replacement. This study investigated the influence of different soil moisture contents on N2 and N2O emissions from a subtropical dairy pasture in Queensland, Australia. Intact soil cores were incubated over 15 days at 80% and 100% water-filled pore space (WFPS), after the application of 15N labelled nitrate, equivalent to 50 kg N ha−1. This setup enabled the direct quantification of N2 and N2O emissions following fertilisation using the 15N gas flux method. The main product of denitrification in both treatments was N2. N2 emissions exceeded N2O emissions by a factor of 8 ± 1 at 80% WFPS and a factor of 17 ± 2 at 100% WFPS. The total amount of N-N2 lost over the incubation period was 21.27 kg ± 2.10 N2-N ha−1 at 80% WFPS and 25.26 kg ± 2.79 kg ha−1 at 100% WFPS respectively. N2 emissions remained high at 100% WFPS, while related N2O emissions decreased. At 80% WFPS, N2 emissions increased constantly over time while N2O fluxes declined. Consequently, N2/(N2 + N2O) product ratios increased over the incubation period in both treatments. N2/(N2 + N2O) product ratios responded significantly to soil moisture, confirming WFPS as a key driver of denitrification. The substantial amount of fertiliser lost as N2 reveals the agronomic significance of denitrification as a major pathway of N loss for sub-tropical pastures at high WFPS and may explain the low fertiliser N use efficiency observed for these agro-ecosystems.

The impact of Indigenous Community sports programs: The case of surfing

The objective of this research project was to consider the social impact of sport and physical activity on the lives of Indigenous Australians and their communities. There has been strong research interest in the links between sport and recreation programs and various health and social outcomes and a well-established body of literature exists on the use of sport to address social issues in mainstream society (A Thomson, Darcy and Pearce 2010). The consensus is that physical activity is an important contributor to health for all people (Nelson, Abbott and Macdonald 2010). While there is strong research interest, what remains unclear is the value and impact of sport and physical activity on Indigenous communities (Cairnduff 2001). Nelson (2009) drawing on the work of Jonas and Langton (1994) indicates that an ‘Aboriginal person is a descendant of an Indigenous inhabitant of Australia, identifi es as an Aboriginal, and is recognised as Aboriginal by members of the community in which he or she lives’ (p. 97). Even this defi nition has the potential to be politically charged. At a general level, the collective terms ‘Indigenous’ (capitalised) and ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander’ people (title capitalised) appear to be broadly acceptable terms. Indigenous groups cannot be considered to be homogenous as there is much diversity between and within groups (Nelson et al. 2010; Parker et al. 2006). It is therefore important this report is not viewed as taking an essentialist view of who Indigenous people are and how they develop. Rather, this paper attempts to describe and discuss the experiences of some individuals and their communities in site-specifi c surfi ng programs.

Effect of surface radiation on conjugate natural convection in a horizontal annulus driven by inner heat generating solid cylinder

This paper reports a numerical study of the laminar conjugate natural convection heat transfer with and without the interaction of the surface radiation in a horizontal cylindrical annulus formed between an inner heat generating solid circular cylinder and an outer isothermal circular boundary. Numerical solutions are obtained by solving the governing equations with a pressure correction method on a collocated (non-staggered) mesh. Steady-state results are presented for the flow and temperature distributions and Nusselt numbers for the heat generation based Grashof number ranging from 10(7) to 10(10), solid-to-fluid thermal conductivity ratios of 1, 5, 10, 50 and 100, radius ratios of 0.226 and 0.452 and surface emissivities of 0-0.8 with air as the working medium. It is observed that surface radiation reduces the convective heat transfer in the annulus compared to the pure natural convection case and enhances the overall Nusselt number.

A numerical study of projectile impact on thin aluminium plates

This article deals with a simulation-based Study of the impact of projectiles on thin aluminium plates using LS-DYNA by modelling plates with shell elements and projectiles with solid elements. In order to establish the required modelling criterion in terms of element size for aluminium plates, a convergence Study of residual velocity has been carried Out by varying mesh density in the impact zone. Using the preferred material and meshing criteria arrived at here, extremely good prediction of test residual velocities and ballistic limits given by Gupta et al. (2001) for thin aluminium plates has been obtained. The simulation-based pattern of failure with localized bulging and jagged edge of perforation is similar to the perforation with petalling seen in tests. A number Of simulation-based parametric studies have been carried out and results consistent with published test data have been obtained. Despite the robust correlation achieved against published experimental results, it would be prudent to conduct one's own experiments, for a final correlation via the present modelling procedure and analysis with the explicit LS-DYNTA 970 solver. Hence, a sophisticated ballistic impact testing facility and a high-speed camera have been used to conduct additional tests on grade 1100 aluminium plates of 1 mm thickness with projectiles Of four different nose shapes. Finally, using the developed numerical simulation procedure, an excellent correlation of residual velocity and failure modes with the corresponding test results has been obtained.

Venous thromboembolism during pregnancy and the impact of thrombophilia in pregnancy complications

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is the greatest single cause of maternal mortality in pregnant women in developed countries. Pregnancy is a hypercoagulable state and brings about an enhanced risk of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) in otherwise healthy women. Traditionally, unfractionated heparin (UFH) has been used for treatment of DVT during pregnancy. We showed in our observational study that low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) is as effective and safe as UFH in the treatment of DVT during pregnancy. Although DVT during pregnancy is often massive, increasing the risk of developing long-term consequences, namely post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS), only 11% of all patients had confirmed PTS 3 4 years after DVT. In our studies the prevalence of PTS was not dependent on treatment (UFH vs LMWH). Low molecular weight heparin is more easily administered, few laboratory controls are required and the hospital stay is shorter, factors that lower the costs of treatment. Cervical insufficiency is defined as repeated very preterm delivery during the second or early third trimester. Infection is a well-known risk factor of preterm delivery. We found overpresentation of thrombophilic mutations (FV Leiden, prothrombin G20210A)among 42 patients with cervical insufficiency compared with controls (OR 6.7, CI 2.7 18.4). Thus, thrombophilia might be a risk factor of cervical insufficiency possibly explained by interaction of coagulation and inflammation processes. The presence of antiphospholipid (aPL) antibodies increases the risk for recurrent miscarriage (RM). Annexins are proteins which all bind to anionic phospholipids (PLs) preventing clotting on vascular phospholipid surfaces. Plasma concentrations of circulating annexin IV and V were investigated in 77 pregnancies at the beginning of pregnancy among women with a history of RM, and in connection to their aPL antibody status. Control group consisted unselected pregnant patients (n=25) without history of adverse pregnancy outcome. Plasma levels of annexin V were significantly higher at the beginning (≤5th week) of pregnancy in women with aPL antibodies compared with those without aPL antibodies (P=0.03). Levels of circulating annexin V were also higher at the 6th (P= 0.01) and 8th week of pregnancy in subjects with aPL antibodies (P=0.01). Results support the hypothesis that aPL could displace annexin from anionic phospholipid surfaces of syncytiotrophoblasts (STBs) and may exert procoagulant activities on the surfaces of STBs Recurrent miscarriage (RM) has been suggested to be caused by mutations in genes coding for various coagulation factors resulting in thrombophilia. In the last study of my thesis were investigated the prevalence of thrombomodulin (TM) and endothelial protein C receptor polymorphism EPCR among 40 couples and six women suffering RM. This study showed that mutations in the TM or EPCR genes are not a major cause of RM in Finnish patients.

Impact of resistance exercise on ribosome biogenesis is acutely regulated by post-exercise recovery strategies

Muscle hypertrophy occurs following increased protein synthesis, which requires activation of the ribosomal complex. Additionally, increased translational capacity via elevated ribosomal RNA (rRNA) synthesis has also been implicated in resistance training-induced skeletal muscle hypertrophy. The time course of ribosome biogenesis following resistance exercise (RE) and the impact exerted by differing recovery strategies remains unknown. In the present study, the activation of transcriptional regulators, the expression levels of pre-rRNA, and mature rRNA components were measured through 48 h after a single-bout RE. In addition, the effects of either low-intensity cycling (active recovery, ACT) or a cold-water immersion (CWI) recovery strategy were compared. Nine male subjects performed two bouts of high-load RE randomized to be followed by 10 min of either ACT or CWI. Muscle biopsies were collected before RE and at 2, 24, and 48 h after RE. RE increased the phosphorylation of the p38-MNK1-eIF4E axis, an effect only evident with ACT recovery. Downstream, cyclin D1 protein, total eIF4E, upstream binding factor 1 (UBF1), and c-Myc proteins were all increased only after RE with ACT. This corresponded with elevated abundance of the pre-rRNAs (45S, ITS-28S, ITS-5.8S, and ETS-18S) from 24 h after RE with ACT. In conclusion, coordinated upstream signaling and activation of transcriptional factors stimulated pre-rRNA expression after RE. CWI, as a recovery strategy, markedly blunted these events, suggesting that suppressed ribosome biogenesis may be one factor contributing to the impaired hypertrophic response observed when CWI is used regularly after exercise.

Impact of hysterectomy or levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system on ovarian function, bone, and sexual functioning in menorrhagic patients

The `VuoKKo` trial consisted of 236 women referred and randomised due to menorrhagia in the five university hospitals of Finland between November 1994 and November 1997. Of these women, 117 were randomised to hysterectomy and 119 to use levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) to treat this complaint. Their follow-up visits took place six and twelve months after the treatment and five years after the randomisation. The first aim in the primary trial was quality-of-life and monetary aspects, and secondly in the present study to compare ovarian function, bone mineral density (BMD) and sexual functioning after these two treatment options. Ovarian function seemed to decrease after hysterectomy, demonstrated by increased hot flashes and serum follicle-stimulating hormone concentrations twelve months after the operation. Such an increase was not seen among LNG-IUS users. The pulsatility index of intraovarian arteries measured by two-dimensional ultrasound decreased in the hysterectomy group, but not in the LNG-IUS group. The decrease in serum inhibin B concentrations was similar in both groups, while ovarian artery circulation remained unchanged. BMD of the women measured by dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) at the lumbar spine and femoral neck at baseline and at five years after treatment showed BMD decrease at the lumbar spine among hysterectomised women, but not among LNG-IUS users. In both groups, BMD at the femoral neck had decreased. Differences between the groups were not, however, significant. Sexual functioning assessed by McCoy s sexual scale showed that sexual satisfaction as well as intercourse frequency had increased and sexual problems decreased among hysterectomised women six months after treatment. Among LNG-IUS users, sexual satisfaction and sexual problems remained unchanged. Although, the two groups did not differ in terms of sexual satisfaction or sexual problems at one-year and five-year follow-ups, LNG-IUS users were less satisfied with their partners than hysterectomised women.