Long-term variations in the magnetic field of the Sun and possible implications for terrestrial climate

Recent studies of the variation of geomagnetic activity over the past 140 years have quantified the "coronal source" or "open" magnetic flux F-s that leaves the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere and have shown that it has risen, on average, by 34% since 1963 and by 140% since 1900. This variation is reflected in studies of the heliospheric field using isotopes deposited in ice sheets and meteorites by the action of galactic comic rays. The variation has also been reproduced using a model that demonstrates how the open flux accumulates and decays, depending on the rate of flux emergence in active regions and on the length of the solar cycle. The cosmic ray flux at energies > 3 GeV is found to have decayed by about 15% during the 20(th) century (and by about 4% at > 13 GeV). We show that the changes in the open flux do reflect changes in the photospheric and sub-surface field which offers an explanation of why open flux appears to be a good proxy for solar irradiance extrapolation. Correlations between F-s, solar cycle length, L, and 11-year smoothed sunspot number, R-11, explain why the various irradiance reconstructions for the last 150 years are similar in form. Possible implications of the inferred changes in cosmic ray flux and irradiance for global temperatures on Earth are discussed.

Determination of the absolute accuracy of UK chamber facilities used in measuring methane emissions from livestock

Respiration chambers are one of the primary sources of data on methane emissions from livestock. This paper describes the results from a coordinated set of chamber validation experiments which establishes the absolute accuracy of the methane emission rates measured by the chambers, and for the first time provides metrological traceability to international standards, assesses the impact of both analyser and chamber response times on measurement uncertainty and establishes direct comparability between measurements made across different facilities with a wide range of chamber designs. As a result of the validation exercise the estimated combined uncertainty associated with the overall capability across all facilities reduced from 25.7% (k = 2, 95% confidence) before the validation to 2.1% (k = 2, 95% confidence) when the validation results are applied to the facilities’ data.

Influence of temperature during grain filling on gluten viscoelastic properties and gluten protein composition

BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of low to moderate temperatures on gluten functionality and gluten protein composition. Four spring wheat cultivars were grown in climate chambers with three temperature regimes (day/night temperatures of 13/10, 18/15 and 23/20 °C) during grain filling. RESULTS The temperature strongly influenced grain weight and protein content. Gluten quality measured by maximum resistance to extension (Rmax) was highest in three cultivars grown at 13 °C. Rmax was positively correlated with the proportion of sodium dodecyl sulfate-unextractable polymeric proteins (%UPP). The proportions of ω-gliadins and D-type low-molecular-weight glutenin subunits (LMW-GS) increased and the proportions of α- and γ-gliadins and B-type LMW-GS decreased with higher temperature, while the proportion of high-molecular-weight glutenin subunits (HMW-GS) was constant between temperatures. The cultivar Berserk had strong and constant Rmax between the different temperatures. CONCLUSION Constant low temperature, even as low as 13 °C, had no negative effects on gluten quality. The observed variation in Rmax related to temperature could be explained more by %UPP than by changes in the proportions of HMW-GS or other gluten proteins. The four cultivars responded differently to temperature, as gluten from Berserk was stronger and more stable over a wide range of temperature

Effects of forage type and extruded linseed supplementation on methane production and milk fatty acid composition of lactating dairy cows

Replacing dietary grass silage (GS) with maize silage (MS) and dietary fat supplements may reduce milk concentration of specific saturated fatty acids (SFA) and can reduce methane production by dairy cows. The present study investigated the effect of feeding an extruded linseed supplement on milk fatty acid (FA) composition and methane production of lactating dairy cows, and whether basal forage type, in diets formulated for similar neutral detergent fiber and starch, altered the response to the extruded linseed supplement. Four mid-lactation Holstein-Friesian cows were fed diets as total mixed rations, containing either high proportions of MS or GS, both with or without extruded linseed supplement, in a 4 × 4 Latin square design experiment with 28-d periods. Diets contained 500 g of forage/kg of dry matter (DM) containing MS and GS in proportions (DM basis) of either 75:25 or 25:75 for high MS or high GS diets, respectively. Extruded linseed supplement (275 g/kg ether extract, DM basis) was included in treatment diets at 50 g/kg of DM. Milk yields, DM intake, milk composition, and methane production were measured at the end of each experimental period when cows were housed in respiration chambers. Whereas DM intake was higher for the MS-based diet, forage type and extruded linseed had no significant effect on milk yield, milk fat, protein, or lactose concentration, methane production, or methane per kilogram of DM intake or milk yield. Total milk fat SFA concentrations were lower with MS compared with GS-based diets (65.4 vs. 68.4 g/100 g of FA, respectively) and with extruded linseed compared with no extruded linseed (65.2 vs. 68.6 g/100 g of FA, respectively), and these effects were additive. Concentrations of total trans FA were higher with MS compared with GS-based diets (7.0 vs. 5.4 g/100 g of FA, respectively) and when extruded linseed was fed (6.8 vs. 5.6 g/100 g of FA, respectively). Total n-3 FA were higher when extruded linseed was fed compared with no extruded linseed (1.2 vs. 0.8 g/100 g of FA, respectively), whereas total n-6 polyunsaturated FA were higher when feeding MS compared with GS (2.5 vs. 2.1 g/100 g of FA, respectively). Feeding extruded linseed and MS both provided potentially beneficial decreases in SFA concentration of milk, and no significant interactions were found between extruded linseed supplementation and forage type. However, both MS and extruded linseed increased trans FA concentration in milk fat. Neither MS nor extruded linseed had significant effects on methane production or yield, but the amounts of supplemental lipid provided by extruded linseed were relatively small.

Effects of targeted delivery of propionate to the human colon on appetite regulation, body weight maintenance and adiposity in overweight adults

Objective The colonic microbiota ferment dietary fibres, producing short chain fatty acids. Recent evidence suggests that the short chain fatty acid propionate may play an important role in appetite regulation. We hypothesised that colonic delivery of propionate would increase peptide YY (PYY) and glucagon like peptide-1 (GLP-1) secretion in humans, and reduce energy intake and weight gain in overweight adults. Design To investigate whether propionate promotes PYY and GLP-1 secretion, a primary cultured human colonic cell model was developed. To deliver propionate specifically to the colon, we developed a novel inulin-propionate ester. An acute randomised, controlled cross-over study was used to assess the effects of this inulin-propionate ester on energy intake and plasma PYY and GLP-1 concentrations. The long-term effects of inulin-propionate ester on weight gain were subsequently assessed in a randomised, controlled 24-week study involving 60 overweight adults. Results Propionate significantly stimulated the release of PYY and GLP-1 from human colonic cells. Acute ingestion of 10 g inulin-propionate ester significantly increased postprandial plasma PYY and GLP-1 and reduced energy intake. Over 24 weeks, 10 g/day inulin-propionate ester supplementation significantly reduced weight gain, intra-abdominal adipose tissue distribution, intrahepatocellular lipid content and prevented the deterioration in insulin sensitivity observed in the inulin-control group. Conclusions These data demonstrate for the first time that increasing colonic propionate prevents weight gain in overweight adult humans

Influence of temperature on the composition and polymerization of gluten proteins during grain filling in spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

One Norwegian and one UK spring wheat cultivar, Bjarne and Cadenza, respectively, were grown in climate chambers to investigate the effects of lower to moderate temperatures during grain filling on the gluten quality. Two experiments were carried out with weekly fertilization until anthesis, while post-anthesis fertilization was applied in a third experiment. The proportions of different gluten proteins were affected by temperature in a similar manner for both cultivars when grown without post-anthesis fertilization. However, whereas low temperature strongly decreased %UPP for Cadenza, Bjarne had high %UPP at all temperature regimes. The results indicated that the assembly of glutenin polymers in Bjarne was less sensitive to variation in temperature than in Cadenza. Thus, our results suggested that the temperature influenced the proportion of different gluten proteins in both cultivars, while its effects on the assembly of the glutenin polymers were cultivar dependent. The duration of grain filling was longer at the lower temperatures, and this was associated with increased grain weight. Temperature had little effect on the amount of protein accumulated per grain, thus the proportion of proteins was strongly decreased at lower temperatures. This was to some extent, but not fully counteracted by post-anthesis fertilization.

Effects of forage source and extruded linseed supplementation on methane emissions from growing dairy cattle of differing body weights

Changes in diet carbohydrate amount and type (i.e., starch vs. fiber) and dietary oil supplements can affect ruminant methane emissions. Our objectives were to measure methane emissions, whole-tract digestibility, and energy and nitrogen utilization from growing dairy cattle at 2 body weight (BW) ranges, fed diets containing either high maize silage (MS) or high grass silage (GS), without or with supplemental oil from extruded linseed (ELS). Four Holstein-Friesian heifers aged 13 mo (BW range from start to finish of 382 to 526 kg) were used in experiment 1, whereas 4 lighter heifers aged 12 mo (BW range from start to finish of 292 to 419 kg) were used in experiment 2. Diets were fed as total mixed rations with forage dry matter (DM) containing high MS or high GS and concentrates in proportions (forage:concentrate, DM basis) of either 75:25 (experiment 1) or 60:40 (experiment 2), respectively. Diets were supplemented without or with ELS (Lintec[AU1: Add manufacturer name and location.]; 260 g of oil/ kg of DM) at 6% of ration DM. Each experiment was a 4 × 4 Latin square design with 33-d periods, with measurements during d 29 to 33 while animals were housed in respiration chambers. Heifers fed MS at a heavier BW (experiment 1) emitted 20% less methane per unit of DM intake (yield) compared with GS (21.4 vs. 26.6, respectively). However, when repeated with heifers of a lower BW (experiment 2), methane yield did not differ between the 2 diets (26.6 g/kg of DM intake). Differences in heifer BW had no overall effect on methane emissions, except when expressed as grams per kilogram of digestible organic matter (OMD) intake (32.4 vs. 36.6, heavy vs. light heifers). Heavier heifers fed MS in experiment 1 had a greater DM intake (9.4 kg/d) and lower OMD (755 g/kg), but no difference in N utilization (31% of N intake) compared with heifers fed GS (7.9 kg/d and 799 g/kg, respectively). Tissue energy retention was nearly double for heifers fed MS compared with GS in experiment 1 (15 vs. 8% of energy intake, respectively). Heifers fed MS in experiment 2 had similar DM intake (7.2 kg/d) and retention of energy (5% of intake energy) and N (28% of N intake), compared with GS-fed heifers, but OMD was lower (741 vs. 765 g/kg, respectively). No effect of ELS was noted on any of the variables measured, irrespective of animal BW, and this was likely due to the relatively low amount of supplemental oil provided. Differences in heifer BW did not markedly influence dietary effects on methane emissions. Differences in methane yield were attributable to differences in dietary starch and fiber composition associated with forage type and source.

The pitfalls of ecological forecasting

Ecological forecasting is difficult but essential, because reactive management results in corrective actions that are often too late to avert significant environmental damage. Here, we appraise different forecasting methods with a particular focus on the modelling of species populations. We show how simple extrapolation of current trends in state is often inadequate because environmental drivers change in intensity over time and new drivers emerge. However, statistical models, incorporating relationships with drivers, simply offset the prediction problem, requiring us to forecast how the drivers will themselves change over time. Some authors approach this problem by focusing in detail on a single driver, whilst others use ‘storyline’ scenarios, which consider projected changes in a wide range of different drivers. We explain why both approaches are problematic and identify a compromise to model key drivers and interactions along with possible response options to help inform environmental management. We also highlight the crucial role of validation of forecasts using independent data. Although these issues are relevant for all types of ecological forecasting, we provide examples based on forecasts for populations of UK butterflies. We show how a high goodness-of-fit for models used to calibrate data is not sufficient for good forecasting. Long-term biological recording schemes rather than experiments will often provide data for ecological forecasting and validation because these schemes allow capture of landscape-scale land-use effects and their interactions with other drivers.

Equations to predict methane emissions from cows fed at maintenance energy level in pasture-based systems

Ruminant production is a vital part of food industry but it raises environmental concerns, partly due to the associated methane outputs. Efficient methane mitigation and estimation of emissions from ruminants requires accurate prediction tools. Equations recommended by international organizations or scientific studies have been developed with animals fed conserved forages and concentrates and may be used with caution for grazing cattle. The aim of the current study was to develop prediction equations with animals fed fresh grass in order to be more suitable to pasture-based systems and for animals at lower feeding levels. A study with 25 nonpregnant nonlactating cows fed solely fresh-cut grass at maintenance energy level was performed over two consecutive grazing seasons. Grass of broad feeding quality, due to contrasting harvest dates, maturity, fertilisation and grass varieties, from eight swards was offered. Cows were offered the experimental diets for at least 2 weeks before housed in calorimetric chambers over 3 consecutive days with feed intake measurements and total urine and faeces collections performed daily. Methane emissions were measured over the last 2 days. Prediction models were developed from 100 3-day averaged records. Internal validation of these equations, and those recommended in literature, was performed. The existing in greenhouse gas inventories models under-estimated methane emissions from animals fed fresh-cut grass at maintenance while the new models, using the same predictors, improved prediction accuracy. Error in methane outputs prediction was decreased when grass nutrient, metabolisable energy and digestible organic matter concentrations were added as predictors to equations already containing dry matter or energy intakes, possibly because they explain feed digestibility and the type of energy-supplying nutrients more efficiently. Predictions based on readily available farm-level data, such as liveweight and grass nutrient concentrations were also generated and performed satisfactorily. New models may be recommended for predictions of methane emissions from grazing cattle at maintenance or low feeding levels.

Transatlantic flight times and climate change

Aircraft do not fly through a vacuum, but through an atmosphere whose meteorological characteristics are changing because of global warming. The impacts of aviation on climate change have long been recognised, but the impacts of climate change on aviation have only recently begun to emerge. These impacts include intensified turbulence and increased take-off weight restrictions. Here we investigate the influence of climate change on flight routes and journey times. We feed synthetic atmospheric wind fields generated from climate model simulations into a routing algorithm of the type used operationally by flight planners. We focus on transatlantic flights between London and New York, and how they change when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is doubled. We find that a strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen in all seasons. Eastbound and westbound crossings in winter become approximately twice as likely to take under 5 h 20 min and over 7 h 00 min, respectively. For reasons that are explained using a conceptual model, the eastbound shortening and westbound lengthening do not cancel out, causing round-trip journey times to increase. Even assuming no future growth in aviation, the extrapolation of our results to all transatlantic traffic suggests that aircraft will collectively be airborne for an extra 2000 h each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US$ 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide, which is equivalent to the annual emissions of 7100 average British homes. Our results provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change.

Review of current in vivo measurement techniques for quantifying enteric methane emission from ruminants

Ruminant husbandry is a major source of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG). Filling knowledge gaps and providing expert recommendation are important for defining future research priorities, improving methodologies and establishing science-based GHG mitigation solutions to government and non-governmental organisations, advisory/extension networks, and the ruminant livestock sector. The objectives of this review is to summarize published literature to provide a detailed assessment of the methodologies currently in use for measuring enteric methane (CH4) emission from individual animals under specific conditions, and give recommendations regarding their application. The methods described include respiration chambers and enclosures, sulphur hexafluoride tracer (SF6) technique, and techniques based on short-term measurements of gas concentrations in samples of exhaled air. This includes automated head chambers (e.g. the GreenFeed system), the use of carbon dioxide (CO2) as a marker, and (handheld) laser CH4 detection. Each of the techniques are compared and assessed on their capability and limitations, followed by methodology recommendations. It is concluded that there is no ‘one size fits all’ method for measuring CH4 emission by individual animals. Ultimately, the decision as to which method to use should be based on the experimental objectives and resources available. However, the need for high throughput methodology e.g. for screening large numbers of animals for genomic studies, does not justify the use of methods that are inaccurate. All CH4 measurement techniques are subject to experimental variation and random errors. Many sources of variation must be considered when measuring CH4 concentration in exhaled air samples without a quantitative or at least regular collection rate, or use of a marker to indicate (or adjust) for the proportion of exhaled CH4 sampled. Consideration of the number and timing of measurements relative to diurnal patterns of CH4 emission and respiratory exchange are important, as well as consideration of feeding patterns and associated patterns of rumen fermentation rate and other aspects of animal behaviour. Regardless of the method chosen, appropriate calibrations and recovery tests are required for both method establishment and routine operation. Successful and correct use of methods requires careful attention to detail, rigour, and routine self-assessment of the quality of the data they provide.

Exposure to ambient levels of particles emitted by traffic worsens emphysema in mice

Objectives: We investigated effects of chronic exposure (2 months) to ambient levels of particulate matter (PM) on development of protease-induced emphysema and pulmonary remodeling in mice. Methods: Balb/c mice received nasal drop of either papain or normal saline and were kept in two exposure chambers situated in an area with high traffic density. One of them received ambient air and the other had filters for PM. Results: mean concentration of PM10 was 2.68 +/- 0.38 and 33.86 +/- 2.09 mu g/m(3), respectively, in the filtered and ambient air chambers (p<0.001). After 2 months of exposure, lungs from papain-treated mice kept in the chamber with ambient air presented greater values of mean linear intercept, an increase in density of collagen fibers in alveolar septa and in expression of 8-isoprostane (p = 0.002, p < 0.05 and p = 0.002, respectively, compared to papain-treated mice kept in the chamber with filtered air). We did not observe significant differences between these two groups in density of macrophages and in amount of cells expressing matrix metalloproteinase-12. There were no significant differences in saline-treated mice kept in the two chambers. Conclusions: We conclude that exposure to urban levels of PM worsens protease-induced emphysema and increases pulmonary remodeling. We suggest that an increase in oxidative stress induced by PM exposure influences this response. These pulmonary effects of PM were observed only in mice with emphysema. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Elevated CO(2) increases photosynthesis, biomass and productivity, and modifies gene expression in sugarcane

Because of the economical relevance of sugarcane and its high potential as a source of biofuel, it is important to understand how this crop will respond to the foreseen increase in atmospheric [CO(2)]. The effects of increased [CO(2)] on photosynthesis, development and carbohydrate metabolism were studied in sugarcane (Saccharum ssp.). Plants were grown at ambient (similar to 370 ppm) and elevated (similar to 720 ppm) [CO(2)] during 50 weeks in open-top chambers. The plants grown under elevated CO(2) showed, at the end of such period, an increase of about 30% in photosynthesis and 17% in height, and accumulated 40% more biomass in comparison with the plants grown at ambient [CO(2)]. These plants also had lower stomatal conductance and transpiration rates (-37 and -32%, respectively), and higher water-use efficiency (c.a. 62%). cDNA microarray analyses revealed a differential expression of 35 genes on the leaves (14 repressed and 22 induced) by elevated CO(2). The latter are mainly related to photosynthesis and development. Industrial productivity analysis showed an increase of about 29% in sucrose content. These data suggest that sugarcane crops increase productivity in higher [CO(2)], and that this might be related, as previously observed for maize and sorghum, to transient drought stress.

Impacts of climate changes on crop physiology and food quality

Carbon emissions related to human activities have been significantly contributing to the elevation of atmospheric [CO(2)] and temperature. More recently, carbon emissions have greatly accelerated, thus much stronger effects on crops are expected. Here, we revise literature data concerning the physiological effects of CO(2) enrichment and temperature rise on crop species. We discuss the main advantages and limitations of the most used CO(2)-enrichment technologies, the Open-Top Chambers (OTCs) and the Free-Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE). Within the conditions expected for the next few years, the physiological responses of crops suggest that they will grow faster, with slight changes in development, such as flowering and fruiting, depending on the species. There is growing evidence suggesting that C(3) crops are likely to produce more harvestable products and that both C(3) and C(4) crops are likely to use less water with rising atmospheric [CO(2)] in the absence of stressful conditions. However, the beneficial direct impact of elevated [CO(2)] on crop yield can be offset by other effects of climate change, such as elevated temperatures and altered patterns of precipitation. Changes in food quality in a warmer, high-CO(2) world are to be expected, e.g., decreased protein and mineral nutrient concentrations, as well as altered lipid composition. We point out that studies related to changes in crop yield and food quality as a consequence of global climatic changes should be priority areas for further studies, particularly because they will be increasingly associated with food security. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.